Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Velasco]

Maybe he wants to end his misery already?

Anyway, like Velasco said, obituaries about Sánchez have been written before. This is certainly a *wild* decision though, I can't see how it benefits the left.

He might well consider this audacious move will save the PSOE, but most likely what's left of Podemos and allies are done. In any case, nobody can say that Pedro Sánchez is not listening the message sent by the ballot boxes. Courageous or suicidal, you decide

[Logical]

I think this is basically an ultimatum to the left. Unite or we will eat you alive.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I don't remember why I stopped posting in this thread (I guess I've grown to find Spanish politics kind of boring, especially now that the party system is back to what it used to be just with half of PP having migrated to Vox and half of PSOE to Unidxs Podemos or "Sumar") but I probably will start again after this surprise election announcement.

Speaking of which, can someone explain to me what's the deal with Podemos and Sumar? I don't really understand it.

[jaichind]

How come Sumar did not run any list/candidates in these elections? Or perhaps they did and I just missed it.

[Mike88]

I found it weird he didn't appear last night to talk about the results. Of course, he and his close circle were cooking up something.

He might well consider this audacious move will save the PSOE, but most likely what's left of Podemos and allies are done. In any case, nobody can say that Pedro Sánchez is not listening the message sent by the ballot boxes. Courageous or suicide, you decide

I would quote a former Portuguese PM that is now UN General Secretary during an election night in the distant year of 2001:

And if I looked at these elections and went through them as my constitutional right would perhaps be, continuing to exercise the functions of Prime Minister, the Country would inevitably fall into a political swamp that would undermine the trust relationships between rulers and ruled that are essential for Portugal to can overcome the challenges that lie ahead.

[DavidB.]

Pedro Sanchez announces snap elections for 23rd of July!

Weird timing for an election. Aren't many people away from home for holidays then? Can also imagine concerns about elderly people not coming to vote because it's too hot outside.

[Zinneke]

He has always faced pressure from the centrist wing of PSOE to lead a mouth frothing repression of regional nationalists in order to siphon at least some of the "cani" vote. It could have a lot to do with securing his position within his own party and less of the national scene in general.

It's certainly an interesting move.

[Mike88]

Some other important updates:

- Ciudadanos to decide tomorrow if they will run in the General elections;

- Podemos and Sumar are now faced with a final decision regarding a possible coalition or not. Both parties have 10 days to reach an agreement or they will go separately to the elections;

- Could there be also elections in Galicia? The President of the region, Alfonso Rueda, is set to give a press conference in the next few hours;

- Also, the still President of Extremadura region, Guillermo Fernández Vara (PSOE), has announced he's quitting politics;

[Oryxslayer]

Strike while the iron is hot I guess. Cause if yesterday was not a wake up call, then defeat will come whether now or at the end of the year. The Right-Wing government will come unless everyone within the coalition learns to swim rather than sink, so hopefully some will take the appropriate message.

[jaichind]

Strike while the iron is hot I guess. Cause if yesterday was not a wake up call, then defeat will come whether now or at the end of the year. The Right-Wing government will come unless everyone within the coalition learns to swim rather than sink, so hopefully some will take the appropriate message.

Make sense.  This move reminds me of Schröder calling early elections in 2005 after the defeat in the North Rhine-Westphalia state election.  SPD outperformed in that election and Schröder came closer to winning that snap election than anyone expected.

[Mike88]

Strike while the iron is hot I guess. Cause if yesterday was not a wake up call, then defeat will come whether now or at the end of the year. The Right-Wing government will come unless everyone within the coalition learns to swim rather than sink, so hopefully some will take the appropriate message.

Make sense.  This move reminds me of Schröder calling early elections in 2005 after the defeat in the North Rhine-Westphalia state election.  SPD outperformed in that election and Schröder came closer to winning that snap election than anyone expected.

There's also what happened in 2011. In the May 2011 local elections, the PSOE suffered an even larger defeat than the one yesterday and there was talk that Zapatero would call a snap election, that was only expected for March 2012. After a summer of back and forwards, he decided to call an election in late September, if I recall correctly, for November 2011 and many thought that an early election would be better for PSOE. It wasn't. The party suffered a humiliating defeat, 45-29% in favour of PP. And curious fact, even though that year's horrible result for the Socialists, they have not surpassed the 28.8% share of the vote of 2011 in any general election since then, even in the ones they polled ahead.

[BigSerg]

It seems that everyone here has a deep ignorance of Spain or do not know how to read data at all.
 
Sanchez has called elections to phagocytize Podemos and neutralize Sumar, not to help them haha. The PSOE has never, literally never had good relations with the parties to its left and if anything these elections have shown apart from an undisputed victory of the right, is that Podemos and Sumar are in a moment where a hard blow, could make them disappear.

With the calling of elections, Sanchez, although it is impossible for him to get another government, assures himself to keep more than 100 seats, maybe even to grow (as it happened in Valencia) thanks to the foreseeable disappearance of Podemos and to the poorly formed and badly organized project of Sumar.

The answer to this debacle has come with the electoral advance. According to the PSOE, in this way Sánchez manages to neutralize "internal criticisms". In addition, he forces "the left to come to an agreement quickly". In that sense, Sánchez seeks to agglutinate the left-wing vote in the face of the wear and tear of the battle waged by Podemos and Sumar, of Yolanda Díaz.

"It is difficult for anyone to ask for his resignation now," they recognize in the PSOE. "The party has to stay in electoral mode and mobilize to avoid another disaster." "If, in addition, there is no agreement to our left, the president will kill Podemos and all the parties of that spectrum," they add.

https://www.vozpopuli.com/espana/sanchez-psoe-rebelion-elecciones.html

[Oryxslayer]

It seems that everyone here has a deep ignorance of Spain or do not know how to read data at all.
 
Sanchez has called elections to phagocytize Podemos and neutralize Sumar, not to help them haha. The PSOE has never, literally never had good relations with the parties to its left and if anything these elections have shown apart from an undisputed victory of the right, is that Podemos and Sumar are in a moment where a hard blow, could make them disappear.

With the calling of elections, Sanchez, although it is impossible for him to get another government, assures himself to keep more than 100 seats, maybe even to grow (as it happened in Valencia) thanks to the foreseeable disappearance of Podemos and to the poorly formed and badly organized project of Sumar.

The answer to this debacle has come with the electoral advance. According to the PSOE, in this way Sánchez manages to neutralize "internal criticisms". In addition, he forces "the left to come to an agreement quickly". In that sense, Sánchez seeks to agglutinate the left-wing vote in the face of the wear and tear of the battle waged by Podemos and Sumar, of Yolanda Díaz.

"It is difficult for anyone to ask for his resignation now," they recognize in the PSOE. "The party has to stay in electoral mode and mobilize to avoid another disaster." "If, in addition, there is no agreement to our left, the president will kill Podemos and all the parties of that spectrum," they add.

https://www.vozpopuli.com/espana/sanchez-psoe-rebelion-elecciones.html

I mean thats the threat to said parties/concession prize to PSOE if the parties/electorate do not behave as desired. The issue with riding that train of thought to it's conclusion though is that giving the electorate a (semi)proportional system in our multipolar and hyper-informed world - a environment where every voter actually knows as much as they individually need about all parties (which could be nothing for some) - means that there should always be a part that claims to be 'more left' than PSOE. Even if both Podemos and SUMAR are strangled in their separate cradles, someone new will show up just cause the electorate is there for it and sizable enough. PSOE would likely never attract those voters at the ballot box within the present system, only whatever party they vote for at the negotiating table. They therefore benefit most from keeping said party small enough to not be a rival, but large enough to pass the electoral hurdles to winning appropriate representation.

[Umengus]

It seems that everyone here has a deep ignorance of Spain or do not know how to read data at all.
 
Sanchez has called elections to phagocytize Podemos and neutralize Sumar, not to help them haha. The PSOE has never, literally never had good relations with the parties to its left and if anything these elections have shown apart from an undisputed victory of the right, is that Podemos and Sumar are in a moment where a hard blow, could make them disappear.

With the calling of elections, Sanchez, although it is impossible for him to get another government, assures himself to keep more than 100 seats, maybe even to grow (as it happened in Valencia) thanks to the foreseeable disappearance of Podemos and to the poorly formed and badly organized project of Sumar.

The answer to this debacle has come with the electoral advance. According to the PSOE, in this way Sánchez manages to neutralize "internal criticisms". In addition, he forces "the left to come to an agreement quickly". In that sense, Sánchez seeks to agglutinate the left-wing vote in the face of the wear and tear of the battle waged by Podemos and Sumar, of Yolanda Díaz.

"It is difficult for anyone to ask for his resignation now," they recognize in the PSOE. "The party has to stay in electoral mode and mobilize to avoid another disaster." "If, in addition, there is no agreement to our left, the president will kill Podemos and all the parties of that spectrum," they add.

https://www.vozpopuli.com/espana/sanchez-psoe-rebelion-elecciones.html

So Sanchez loses in any case.

[Velasco]

Obviously the priority is to save the PSOE, as I suggested earlier, but there's a good chunk of left-wing voters that will never vote for the party led by Pedro Sánchez.  It's in the PSOE's interest to have a viable force to its left.  Otherwise,  save what you can

[Zinneke]

Can you explain what's the deal with Barcelona, why the Trias/Junts operation did well despite them seeming to be an independence-orientated movement (I get they are still the inheritors of the old Convergents, and the electoral map of Barcelona checks out as a "rich vs poor" map with Catalanist vs anti-indepence trends) but why is ERC is so against a left-wing coalition there? Is Colau too polarising across Catalonia for them to want to govern with her and PSC? Do ERC realise that if they back Trias it will technically mean either relying on PP-Vox (impossible) or the other left-wing formations anyway?

[Former President tack50]

Strike while the iron is hot I guess. Cause if yesterday was not a wake up call, then defeat will come whether now or at the end of the year. The Right-Wing government will come unless everyone within the coalition learns to swim rather than sink, so hopefully some will take the appropriate message.

Make sense.  This move reminds me of Schröder calling early elections in 2005 after the defeat in the North Rhine-Westphalia state election.  SPD outperformed in that election and Schröder came closer to winning that snap election than anyone expected.

There's also what happened in 2011. In the May 2011 local elections, the PSOE suffered an even larger defeat than the one yesterday and there was talk that Zapatero would call a snap election, that was only expected for March 2012. After a summer of back and forwards, he decided to call an election in late September, if I recall correctly, for November 2011 and many thought that an early election would be better for PSOE. It wasn't. The party suffered a humiliating defeat, 45-29% in favour of PP. And curious fact, even though that year's horrible result for the Socialists, they have not surpassed the 28.8% share of the vote of 2011 in any general election since then, even in the ones they polled ahead.

For a more optimist take on PSOE's options, for some reason I get more 1995 vibes from this, particularly given the scale of the victory.

Of course, Gonzalez did not go to the polls until the following year, but when he did, PSOE did quite well even if it lost

[Velasco]

Pablo Iglesias launched his proposal to save the left from his pidcast La Base and his Canal Red TV: a "broad progressive front" led by Sánchez and seconded by Díaz, an amalgamation of the PSOE and the left-wing parties running in smaller provinces. This idea was already proposed before the 2000 general elections, when Joaquín Almunia was the leader of the PSOE and Paco Frutos the leader of IU. Meanwhile the Podemos leadership blames weather conditions (the "reactionary wave"), avoiding analysis or self-criticism. On her part, Yolanda Díaz seems to have realized that it's not time for símiles anymore. "I take on the challenge":. She has only 10 days to forge a coalition between 12 parties including Podemos !

https://twitter.com/Yolanda_Diaz_/status/1663117601063444482?t=oNYgv4J3qwQjL_kmr...

[Velasco]

Can you explain what's the deal with Barcelona, why the Trias/Junts operation did well despite them seeming to be an independence-orientated movement (I get they are still the inheritors of the old Convergents, and the electoral map of Barcelona checks out as a "rich vs poor" map with Catalanist vs anti-indepence trends) but why is ERC is so against a left-wing coalition there? Is Colau too polarising across Catalonia for them to want to govern with her and PSC? Do ERC realise that if they back Trias it will technically mean either relying on PP-Vox (impossible) or the other left-wing formations anyway?

I haven't followed the Barcelona race very much, but anyway. Xavier Trias is the former CiU major that was ousted by the surge of Ada Colau in 2015. Trias is a well mannered person and a perfect exponent of certain Catalan burgeoisie. In spite he is in Junts, Trias is as opposite to your "hyperventilating separatist" as you can find within the nationalist camp. Trias is a polite gentleman and belongs to a generation prior to Mas or Puigdemont. The candidacy of Xavier Trias for Barcelona was as personality-driven as the one led by Ada Colau. He has the perfect profile to win in the upper-middle class and uptown Barcelona.

I don't know if you remember the 2019 elections, but there was a tight race between Ada Colau and the ERC candidate Ernest Maragall. ERC came ahead, but Ada Colau retained the mayoralty with the support of the PSC and a surprising move of the candidate backed by Cs. Do you remember Manuel Valls?

Those events created a big animosity between Ernest Maragall and Ada Colau. Ernest is a brother of former mayor and premier Pascual Maragall, he is a former member of the PSC converted to nationalism. In this election the support for the Maragall list crumbled in a similar proportion to the surge of the Xavier Trias list.

There's nothing closed there,  but we cannot expect that someone like Valls is coming from PP and Vox.  I think there are two options. Either ERC supports the PSC and BCOMU (Jaume Collboni would be the mayor), or Xavier Trias will govern by default as the candidate of the list that won a plurality. Actually that's exactly what Trias is expecting, that ERC and the other parties allow him to govern (Trias and Maragall could form a minority government,  eventually). Like Colau in 2019, Collboni needs a majority to govern as the second placed candidate. In 2015 Ada Colau won a plurality against Trias and formed a minority government with the then diminished PSC

.Speaking of which, can someone explain to me what's the deal with Podemos and Sumar? I don't really understand it.

This article was released in November 2022,  but it explains in detail the origin of the divergence between Pablo Igledias and Yolanda Díaz. The breakdown between Iglesias and Errejón predates to months before the Vistalegre II Podemos convention in 2017 (the breakaway was prior to the 2019 regional elections).

https://www.eldiario.es/escolar/ruptura-pablo-iglesias-yolanda-diaz-pasando-unidas_132_9706388.html

This one is more recent: why Madrid is so rightwing?

https://www.eldiario.es/opinion/derecha-fuerte-madrid_129_10228809.html

[Mike88]

This SER journalist reaction is funny. She's like "Elections on 23 July?? What the.... "

- Could there be also elections in Galicia? The President of the region, Alfonso Rueda, is set to give a press conference in the next few hours;

No snap elections in Galicia.

[kaoras]

Pablo Iglesias launched his proposal to save the left from his pidcast La Base and his Canal Red TV: a "broad progressive front" led by Sánchez and seconded by Díaz, an amalgamation of the PSOE and the left-wing parties running in smaller provinces. This idea was already proposed before the 2000 general elections, when Joaquín Almunia was the leader of the PSOE and Paco Frutos the leader of IU. Meanwhile the Podemos leadership blamea weather conditions (the "reactionary wave"), avoiding analysis or self-criticism. On her part, Yolanda Díaz seems to have realized that it's not time for símiles anymore. "I take on the challenge":. She has only 10 days to forge a coalition between 12 parties including Podemos !

https://twitter.com/Yolanda_Diaz_/status/1663117601063444482?t=oNYgv4J3qwQjL_kmr...

That 2000 alliance was a disaster, wasn't it? Though in the smaller provinces all the votes to the non-PSOE left are going to the trash anyway.

[MRCVzla]

For those who are curious (in the middle of the shock for the snap summer election call), several media outlets published the maps of the local elections "street by street" (by precincts/censal sections), I'm excluding El País link bc its behind a subscription paywall:
El Mundo: https://www.elmundo.es/elecciones/elecciones-municipales/2023/05/30/647512dd21efa028698b45aa.html
ABC: https://www.abc.es/espana/mapa-resultados-elecciones-municipios-espana-calle-calle-20230530164811-nt.html
El Diario: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/mapa-votaron-vecinos-elecciones-municipales-resultados-28m-calle-calle_1_10249030.html
Público: https://www.publico.es/politica/consulta-calle-calle-votado-vecindario-elecciones-municipales-28m.html
OK Diario: https://okdiario.com/espana/resultados-elecciones-municipales-2023-cada-municipio-11003507
El Confidencial: https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2023-05-29/resultados-calle-municipales-28m_3655122/
El Español: https://www.elespanol.com/actualidad/20230530/mapa-resultados-elecciones-municipales-calle/767673227_0.html

El País (Madrid regional election): https://elpais.com/espana/elecciones-autonomicas/2023-05-29/los-resultados-electorales-de-las-elecciones-autonomicas-del-28-m-en-madrid-calle-a-calle.html

Also with the snap election call, some newspapers also published a projected results of the regional/local elections to the GE ones, the extrapolations varies mostly on how the left-to-PSOE is divided or united (the main concern in the next 10 days).
El País: https://elpais.com/espana/elecciones-municipales/2023-05-29/extrapolacion-del-resultado-a-las-generales-feijoo-tendria-garantizada-la-victoria-pero-no-el-gobierno.html

Only local elections: PP 143, PSOE, 122, Vox 15, UP 8, ERC 12, Junts 12, PNV 7, EH Bildu 9, MP/IU 6, CUP 1, CC-NC 4, UPN 2, BNG 4, Compromís 4, PRC 1
With regional elections:  PP 139, PSOE 120, Vox 17, UP 8, ERC 12, Junts 12, PNV 7, EH Bildu 8, MP/IU 7, CUP 1, CC-NC 5, UPN 2, BNG 4, Compromís 5, PRC 1, Teruel Existe 1, Geroa Bai 1

El Mundo: https://www.elmundo.es/elecciones/elecciones-generales/2023/05/29/6474ebedfc6c830c6a8b45cf.html

PP 139, PSOE 120, Vox 17, Sumar 13, ERC 12, Junts 12, EH Bildu 8, Podemos 7, PNV 7, BNG 4, CC 4, UPN 2, Geroa Bai 1, CUP 1, Teruel Existe 1, PRC 1, NC 1

El Diario: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/resultados-municipales-28m-si-hubieran-sido-elecciones-generales-pp-gana-izquierda-gobernar_1_10250519.html

PP 138, PSOE 121, Left-wing confluence 24, Vox 14, ERC 12, Junts 12, EH Bildu 9, PNV 7, BNG 4, CC 4, UPN 2, CUP 1, NC 1, Foro 1

El Español/SocioMétrica: https://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20230529/pp-vox-upn-cc-sumarian-extrapolando-generales/767423539_0.html

Sumar 10, PSOE 125, PRC 1, ERC 12, EH Bildu 7, BNG 3, PNV 6, CC 3, UPN 2, Junts 12, PP 154, Vox 15

[Mike88]

First poll after the local elections and the announcement of snap general elections:

https://twitter.com/electografica/status/1663431558655508480

[icc]

First poll after the local elections and the announcement of snap general elections:

Worth pointing out that this is by far PSOE's worst pollster - this is basically no change on their last poll (last week of April) which had:
PP - 32.8%
PSOE - 21.2%
Sumar+Podemos - 15.8%
Vox - 15.7%
Cs - 2.1%


Data10/OKDiario is generally an outlier in being slightly better than average for the PP and far worse than average for PSOE, while CIS is an outlier in being very good for PSOE and very bad for Vox.

[Velasco]

That 2000 alliance was a disaster, wasn't it? Though in the smaller provinces all the votes to the non-PSOE left are going to the trash anyway.

The alliance never materialized and the outcome of the 2000 general elections was a majority for the PP led by José María Aznar. There are many differences between 2000 and 2023, on the other hand. By 2000 Vox didn't exist and Aznar had spent four years governing in a moderate style supported by CiU or PNV. Those were years of apparent economic prosperity and the Aznar narrative was very succesful; "España va bien". With the majoority achieved in the 2000 elections, Aznar showed his true face turning to be the arrogant rightwinger everybody knows.

I checked my precinct resuts and they are a bit shocking

PSOE 35.3%, PP 21.1%, Hablemos Ahora 11.4%, Vox 9,3%, USP 6.5%, NC 6%

For some reason the Hablemos Ahora ("let's talk now") list performed strongly in my neighbourhood, otherwise solidly PSOE. To be honest, I don't have a clue about that party. The website says it was founded in November 2020 in Gran Canaria and they are allegedly a "centrist, progressive and liberal" force

I voted in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, probably the largest town that will be governed by the PSOE (excluding Barcelona, in case Collboni is elected mayor). The candidate was former health minister Carolin Darias. Results were (lists above 1%):

PSOE 12 33.1%
PP 9 27.2%
VOX 4 11.3%
NC 2 6.11%
USP 1 5.4%
CC 1 5.2%
UxGC 0 3.3%
DVC 0 1.9%
Hablemos Ahora 0 1.7%
PACMA 0 1.3%

First poll after the local elections and the announcement of snap general elections:

(...)

Data10/OKDiario is generally an outlier in being slightly better than average for the PP and far worse than average for PSOE, while CIS is an outlier in being very good for PSOE and very bad for Vox.

I don't think "Data 10" is an actual pollster. I wouldn't trust anything coming from OK Diario, on the other hand.