Hindsight Is 2020

[Blackacre]

Author's note: the last few updates were in quick succession, but now that everyone's in, I'm going to slow down my rate of update for a bit. It's not all that fair to the pundits that I'm churning out stuff faster than they can keep up, after all! So expect something maybe 3 times a week now instead of every day.

edit: hundredth post wooooo!

[Kingpoleon]

A New Type of Democrat

by John Avlon

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Blackacre]

Thanks, Kingpoleon!

The debates won't be up for a little bit. With all the candidates in, this is a great opportunity for other pundits to assess the state of the race. I'm just sayin

[GoTfan]

Clip from Secular Talk's show on Guesday June 11 2019

Okay, so the field continued to widen for the Democratic nomination. Sherrod Brown and Tammy Duckworth recently announced their entry into the race, and yes, I am very happy about that because the field of progressives has increased; we now have:

Sherrod Brown
Bill De Blasio
Al Franken
Tammy Baldwin
And Elizabeth Warren

This is absolutely fantastic. Now of course, there's still Cory Booker to overcome, but Elizabeth's the established frontrunner, so there's  that.

The other one is Ron Wyden. Now I'm a little skeptical of his commitment to progressive causes; he's more of a libertarian Democrat than anything else, and libertarians are usuallt good on half the issues, and then just complete bats**t on everything else. He has his fans though, as we saw from John Avlon's giant b***job of him the other day.

As for Sherrod Brown though, oof, that guy is doing daaaaamn well in the polls. He's exactly the candidate the Democrats need too; he's a progressive midwesterner with a pptential to bring the Rustbelt plus Ohio into the Democratic column. Most of the races come down to Ohio or Florida. You nomimate him, then you got a real chance of flipping the White House.

I really hope the Democrats have learnt their lesson, because if you go with someone like Cory Booker or Andrew Cuomo, you're going to lose; that's  just a fact.

So yeah, here's hoping that progressives can take the White House this year.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

I'm new but could I be Anderson Cooper and the Fun Bunch of correspondents from CNN?

[Blackacre]

I'm new but could I be Anderson Cooper and the Fun Bunch of correspondents from CNN?

Absolutely! There's no post minimum to be a pundit! Go nuts!

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Anderson Cooper 360°: Election 2020 edition

~~Image of Anderson Cooper 360°, pretend it's here since I don't have enough posts to include links~~

Moving on from a Mark Preston piece about the field of candidates…

COOPER: Thanks so much, Mark. Plenty to talk about.
Joining us, CNN chief political correspondent Dana Bash; Republican CNN contributors Kayleigh McEnany, a supporter of President Trump and Ana Navarro, a Republican who supports Senator Cruz's campaign; Democrats Angela Rye, former executive director of the Congressional Black Caucus and Christine Quinn, former New York City Council chairwoman, who supports Governor Kate Brown; and I'd like to welcome CNN's newest political contributor, former Maine Republican governor Paul LePage, also supporting President Trump.

LEPAGE: Well, thanks, Anderson. It's great to be here--

NAVARRO (interjecting): --Anderson, Anderson. I just want to make clear, I am a supporter of Ted Cruz but I am also an unwilling supporter of Ted Cruz. I'm just here now because he's the only Republican alternative to that man in the White House that we've got.

COOPER: Of course, Ana. And we'll get to the Republican primary duel soon, but I wanna talk about the opposition first; the Democrats. We'll start with Dana Bash. Dana, as the race stands now, and going into the first debates, what should we expect to see coming from the Democratic primary?

BASH: Well, it's interesting, because this is shaping up to be the first Democratic primary contest between more than two major candidates since 2004; it's been 16 years. Warren has been the leader in most polls virtually since as soon as the 2016 election concluded, but now that others are getting their voices out there, it seems as if her nomination may not be so inevitable.

COOPER: Angela, you haven't made your decision yet and you've made it clear you're not deciding who to support for a while, at least publicly, but what's your read of the field, and where would you like to see it go from here?

RYE: What we need is a candidate who can bring the Obama coalition back together. Someone who who not only champion the rights of Black Americans, and LGBT people, and support women's rights and disabled rights, and all that, but who can also retake those parts of the Midwest White community we lost in 2016.

COOPER: Now, Kayleigh, a few of us saw you visibly rolling your eyes as Angela was talking, would you like to respond?

MCENANY: Yes, and I'm sorry Angela, it's just that I've been listening to Democrats talk about the "Obama coalition" for years and never actually bring out anything new. You talk about the Obama coalition, but guess who can't be a part of that coalition anymore: Barack Obama. President Trump is the only one who has actually united people in these past two years; Democrats seek only to divide us with identity politics and name-calling. Do you know how many times I've heard people call me a fascist the past few years? It's ridiculous and I--

(CROSSTALK)

COOPER (over crosstalk): OK now, let me turn to--

NAVARRO: OK, hang on, Kayleigh, because you're sitting right next to living proof that Trump cannot unite this country. I am a Republican, and I have been ever since I became a naturalized citizen. I decided to give him a chance after he shocked us all and won last election--

MCENANY: --Sure didn't shock me.

NAVRRO: --Oh, of course it didn't--I gave him a chance. And then I went for a second and third chance. And a fourth. After the 12th or so chance, I gave up. Donald Trump has proved time and time again that he is incapable of bringing this country together. And that's why I'm forced to hold my nose and support Senator Cruz.

MCENANY: Well, speaking of people who are dividing us… Ted Cruz--

COOPER: --Hang on, Kayleigh, remember we're talking about the Democrats right now, we'll clearly have plenty to talk about when it comes to the Republicans. Christine, you've said you support Governor Brown. What takes you in her direction as opposed to any of the other candidates?

QUINN: Kate Brown is exactly what this country needs right now. She is untouched by Washington, and has proven herself to be both a successful and extremely progressive governor in Oregon. That being said, I respect every one of these men and women we have running for our nomination this year. It's really inspiring to see so many strong women stand up on their own two feet--including two members of the LGBT community in Brown and Baldwin--and making their cases to the nation. In the end, whatever happens, I'll be happy voting for any one of the Democrats running for President over Donald Trump.

RYE: Exactly. When it all comes down to it, I see the Democratic Party as being more united than ever behind our field. We'll have a respectable campaign, at least until President Trump starts tweeting about the eventual nominee at 3 A.M., but we'll have a respectable campaign between our candidates where we debate the issues that matter to Americans--all Americans.

COOPER: Governor LePage, again, welcome. Sorry we've been ignoring you all this time. Now, you were the first sitting governor to endorse candidate Trump back during the 2016 campaign, and you're back to help him win reelection. What do you see coming out of the Democratic primary.

LEPAGE: You see all this kum-ba-ya coming from the Dems? This is the last you'll see of it for another four years. Just like Hillary and Bernie, these candidates' supporters are gonna be at each others' throats for the next year. When one of them finally pulls himself out of the body pile, they're gonna be full of holes from all the shots they've been taking from their "fellow" Democrats. Part of me really believes Barack Obama was the last Democrat President, and that Donald J. Trump is the dawn of a new morning in America. RINO's like McConnell kept the Wall down, but we'll get it up without 'em, and keep all these thugs out of our country. He said it for the first time four years ago, and--

RYE: Now, stop it right there. Stop it, Governor. That is racist talk. I can't sit here and let you shout at Latinos and Latinas through the TV without calling you out for this. Honestly, where is your decency?

MCENANY: Now, wait a--

COOPER: All right, that's all the time we've got, we've gotta go to commercial break. Up next, Vice President Pence's foreign trip to...

[RC]

I know it's probably way too early to be talking about this, but maybe there can be some coverage on the 3rd parties and Independents? At the moment, I think that it would be interesting to see coverage of the Libertarian party's primaries, since they've gained a bit of traction in the last 2 elections and it will probably keep growing in the future. I think that 2020 would be a good election year for a strong Libertarian candidate to compete with both sides. Thoughts?

[Blackacre]

I know it's probably way too early to be talking about this, but maybe there can be some coverage on the 3rd parties and Independents? At the moment, I think that it would be interesting to see coverage of the Libertarian party's primaries, since they've gained a bit of traction in the last 2 elections and it will probably keep growing in the future. I think that 2020 would be a good election year for a strong Libertarian candidate to compete with both sides. Thoughts?

I absolutely plan to cover the Libertarians and other independents, but I was going to do it around convention time when they choose their candidates. It's harder to do it now because I know next to nothing about how this stage of the primary process would work out for the Libertarians.

But rest assured, the Libertarian Party will be playing a large role once the general election is underway.

[Wells]

Atlas Forum
- Forum Community
-- Forum Community
--- DWPERRYWATCH

some weird username Kalwejt               YaBB God ★★★★★ Posts: 1000000

Re: DWPERRYWATCH « on: July 15, 2019, 5:13:22 am »And he has announced his 2020 run. I personally welcome America's new 5-year-olds-can-inject-crack-former-creepy-Atlas-poster overlord

LongLiveBooker LongLiveRock YaBB God ★★★★★ Posts: 14999

Re: DWPERRYWATCH « on: July 15, 2019, 6:19:32 am » You must be logged in to read this quote. > Kalwejt calling someone else out on being creepy. But this is great news. I also welcome our new presumptive Libertarian nominee.

Atlas Forum
- Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
-- 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
--- JBE Why?

Whiter Trash Southern Gothic   YaBB God ★★★★★ Posts: 6673

JBE Why? « on: June 1, 2019, 3:54:52 pm »JBE I trusted you. And you decide that the presidency isn't for you. Now I have to actually look at the other mediocre Democratic candidates.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

and I'd like to welcome CNN's newest political contributor, former Maine Republican governor Paul LePage, also supporting President Trump.

they would hire that fckdribble, wouldn't they

[Blackacre]

Hey guys! I am SO sorry for the long time between updates. I've been waiting on something important from a friend, not to mention studying for exams because the UK has exams after Christmas for some reason, and Christmas shopping and present wrapping and all that good stuff. But the wait is almost over! Democratic Primary Debate 1, Part 1 will be up for your viewing pleasure tomorrow at roughly 7 PM EST, (or midnight my time) with part 2 of the debate coming the next day at 7 PM EST. Then we can continue with analyses of the campaigns and news stories and more debates and the reason why I've claimed Stephen Colbert for myself.

[NeverAgain]

Nate Silver's 538 Presents: Profiles and Predictions

Senator Elizabeth Warren

Senator Warren goes first here, as she is the most likely to win the Democratic Nomination in our estimates. Almost 8 years ago, she was thrust into national attention for her win in the Massachusetts Senate Race, against incumbent Scott Brown. Since then she has been a strong advocate for Progressivism and Change in Washington, especially on Wall St. and Campaign Finance Reform.

PROS
• Outspoken Fighter for Progressive Causes. In her 8-years in the Senate, Warren has made a name for herself in progressive circles, especially on Trade/TPP, which she opposes, and Strong Wall St. Reform, as she almost single-handedly created the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau.

• Brings together Hillary and Bernie Supporters. 3 years ago, Warren chose not to endorse either candidate, saying both were great candidates. When it was clear Hillary was the nominee, she became a strong Hillary advocate, angering some Bernie supporters. Since then, Warren has maintained her progressive roots and can tap into both sides of the 2016 Democratic race.

• Looked at as an insider-outsider Warren, Senator now for 7 years, ran her 2012 Senate campaign as an outsider. She was then a Harvard professor with a hit out on Wall St., but her anger at Wall St. pushed her to create the CFPB, and then the Senate. She now has the unique ability to have both outsider experience, and inside government experience

• Passionate Speaker In 2016, she was seen as one of Hillary Clinton's most effective surrogates and now sees a tremendous amount of support at her own rallies, due to her speaking ability.

• Diverse Background Undeniably, Warren's personal life story is one that has amazed many of her supporters and her opponents. There is no doubt that she will use her middle-class background on the campaign trail.

CONS
• Seen as a sell-out to the Corporations by some Bernie supporters. Warren, has been criticized even by some of her most fervent supporters as still being too close to Wall St., as she has taken some funding from Corporate Backers. This is a very small amount and is unlikely to come up on the trail, but still dissuades some "true progressives"

• Seen as too far left to appeal to the White Working Class. The White Working Class, who propelled Donald Trump to victory 3 years ago, now are assumed to be the tipping point for his re-election. Warren is described as being too far too the left of these voters to appeal to them.

• Too Old. Age cannot be looked over when Democrats go to the polls next year. Both sides may be content with choosing two candidates who, while in office, will outlive the life expectancy. But for some Warren's health and age may be a factor.

• Woman. I don't think it can be stressed enough that gender was a factor in 2016, and there is no doubt that it will be again in this cycle. Some say that Hillary Clinton's gender was the defining factor in her winning the nomination, but also her losing the general... (this applies to all female candidates running for the nomination.

• Seen as uncharismatic. Sources close to Senator Warren have described her as a cold fish, but as the majority of American People are unlikely to be too close to the Senator, this may  be a non-issue for many.


Warren's chances of winning: 26%

Mayor Bill DeBlasio

Mayor de Blasio has spent the past 6 years, as Mayor of his beloved hometown of New York City. He has been able to turn the tides on many reforms implemented by Mayors Guiliani and Bloomberg, which he has felt have damaged the city's ability to thrive. Mayor DeBlasio was Hillary Clinton's campaign manager for her successful 2000 Senate run in NY, but his ties to the Clintons may not assist him in a race where "the Clintons" are a liability.

PROS
• Diverse background and family. DeBlasio has an interesting history, and one of hardship. His father left when he was 7, and he soon become the major breadwinner as a teenager. He struggled to make it through college, and did, graduating NYU in 1981. DeBlasio met his wife    Chirlane McCray soon after, and they married in 1994. They currently have two children.

• Seen as a strong leader for progressivism. Mayor DeBlasio has pushed for strong progressive values, such as Universal Pre-K and a Millionaire Tax. These efforts were squashed on the state side, by DeBlasios fellow New Yorker candidate, Governor Cuomo.

• Leans to Progressive Hillary Supporters, and some Bernie Bros. Mayor DeBlasio has been a staunch advocate for Progressive issues, but endorsed Hillary Clinton 3 years ago

CONS
• Seen as Inexperienced 6 year mayor. Mayor DeBlasio’s limited experience would almost disqualify his campaign a decade ago, but in the era of Trump, a man who comes from the city he governs. The point still remains that his only experience is as mayor, still 2 years shy of the experience that Mayor Giuliani had in his 2008 run.

• Seen as weak on crime and police. Mayor DeBlasio has been an outspoken critic of police violence and brutality. This has been taken with offense by much of the police force, who have seen it as an attack on their occupation. While this may endear him to many of those sympathetic to the Black Lives Matter movement (still going strong), it will likely be strongly offset by those that are supportive of the police officers.

• Race of wife and family. We cannot underscore that race does play a major role, and while that will likely not harm him in his primary. Our new poll that still only 87% of the population support/tolerate interracial marriage. And those 13% likely are still the last remnants of extreme hatred in this nation, but likely, they vote.


De Blasio's chances of winning: 15%

Senator Sherrod Brown

Senator Brown was elected to the US House representing Ohio’s 13th district in 1992 and was re-elected 6 times.  He was known for his strong positions on trade, pulling together the opposition to CAFTA.  He also voted against the Iraq War and the Defense of Marriage Act.  He was elected to the Senate in 2006 and was re-elected in 2012.  During his time in the Senate, he has assumed leadership in foreign policy, anti-terrorism, veterans’ affairs, health care, and LGBT rights.

PROS
• Experience in state house and US House and Senate from an important battleground state. There is no doubt that Senator Brown is a very qualified candidate. He has served in various forms of government for 44 years. He also hails and is still beloved by a state which swung by a margin of 12 points for President Trump in 2016.  

• Diverse areas of experience and expertise - trade, foreign policy, veterans affairs, health care, and LGBT rights. Brown has been heralded for his work on many liberal issues “before it was cool”. He was a staunch advocate for LGBT rights, and has extensive knowledge of trade.

• Has worked in leadership roles and had worked across the aisle on bipartisan efforts.In his 13 years in the Senate, Brown has been a leader on many committees and on many issues. This is not likely to change if he does win the Presidency.

CONS
• Only has legislative experience without any executive background. 5 of the last 7 presidents have been elected as executives. While this isn’t a barrier for electability (as seen with President Trump’s 2016 campaign), it may take an adjustment period for him while in office (aka. On the job training).

• Is considered more moderate on many issues. While he is considered to be a progressive, he still lacks the full leftist credentials of say a Bernie Sanders, or Elizabeth Warren. This could subtract from the Bernie voters of 4 years past.


Brown’s chances of winning: 9%

[NeverAgain]

Senator Al Franken

Al Franken, Senator for 11 years of his home of Minnesota. Before that, he was a beloved comedian for over 30 years, since his start as a writer on SNL in 1975. Winning his Senate seat by less than 400 votes, to then winning a landslide re-election in the 2014 Republican landslide. In his time in the Senate, he has been a strong advocate for LGBT rights, Criminal Justice Reform, and Infrastructure development.

PROS
• Midwesterner. Senator of a state that only voted for his party’s nominee by just over a point, Franken can appeal to a region that went for the President’s party for the first time since the 80’s, and likely with that, the Presidency.

• One of the first staunch opponents against the President. Franken was noted as setting the Democratic agenda on areas to with with him on, and areas of strong disagreement. Since then he’s kept to those issues and fought for them, along with his colleagues, everyday in the Senate.

CONS
• Seen as not serious - too lighthearted. Franken’s sense of humor has not left him in the Senate. In 2010, he was widely criticized for making faces at fellow Senator Mitch McConnell, for which he later apologized for. The Senator has kept his act clean since then, but his humorous novels, such as “Rush Limbaugh is a Big Fat Liar”, may resurface.

• Wife was an alcoholic. While this con isn’t about him, but it may worry some voters, along with the possibility of him dropping out do to a possible relapse. But, the Senator, due to this, has been a strong advocate of AA and other rehab programs.



Franken's chances of winning: 7%

Senator Ron Wyden

Senator Ron Wyden is the Senior Senator from Oregon, serving from 1996 - PRESENT. He previously served in the US House of Representatives from 1981 to 1996. He has been an advocate for reform of all stripes, from trade to healthcare. He has been very aggressive against President Trump’s actions against one of signature pieces of legislation, the TPP Agreement.

PROS
• Very Experienced. Wyden has a combined 38 years in Washington, to where he has been an advocate for issues all over the board. The Senator has been able to craft bipartisan legislation, and knows how to get things done.

• Works across the aisle. Two of his biggest pieces of legislation (Healthy Americans Act, and the TPP) received strong bipartisan support and both were some of the most hotly debated bills in the Senate. Though both failed, they were standards for future legislation (or trade deals) like the ACA and a new TPP style deal.

CONS
• Seen as way too Moderate. Wyden, though from a liberal state, has been a moderate and even conservative on many issues. On trade, he has been one of the strongest advocates for free trade (NAFTA, CAFTA, and TPP). He has also argued for free market based healthcare reform (HAA). And even argued for the privatization of Medicare.

• Comes from a safe state, and area. Wyden comes from Oregon, and while it was close in 2004, it has stayed solidly blue for decades. Wyden doesn’t add any regional advantage, nor does he give any ground game in the GE or in the primaries.

• Total Insider. As stated, Wyden has been in Washington for almost 4 decades, which is definitely not an asset in the era of Donald Trump. His ability to be an insider, is countered with his lack of funding from Wall St. or big business and his argument that his experience in Washington is beneficial to getting things done.


Wyden's chances of winning: 6%

Senator Tammy Baldwin

Tammy Baldwin was elected this nation’s first LGBT Senator in 2012, after being Congresswoman from her town of Madison for the past decade and a half. The Senator has worked consistently for the rights of LGBT Americans, and for Wisconsinites by passing policies and funding for her native state.

PROS
• On the forefront of LGBT Rights. If elected, not only would Tammy Baldwin be the first female President, she would be the first LGBT President, which would be a huge step forward for Gays and Lesbians here in America, but abroad too. As we’ve said, she has been fighting for LGBT rights for years, and while, some still criticize the advancements of LGBT Americans, the majority of Americans (76-24) say they would “definitely” vote for a gay president.

• Comes from a, now well-known swing state. Wisconsin, and neighboring Michigan were decided by less than a couple thousand votes. Both states, plus a couple other Midwesterners would’ve given Hillary Clinton a victory 3 years ago. Now, Baldwin may be one of the only candidates to redeem the Democratic name in these very crucial states.

• Strong Progressive Values. In her over 2 decades in Washington, Baldwin has been ranked one of the most liberal members, but has been able to work across the aisle for issues that matter to the people of her state.

CONS
• Too far left. In her 2012 campaign she was attacked as being way too far to the left of the Average Wisconsin (and American) voter. While, much of this is talk, some of her stances that out a bit out of the mainstream may be called on by her opponents (both Republicans, and fellow Democrats…).

• LGBT. We’ve already said that Senator Baldwin would likely not have a problem with getting the nomination due to her sexuality, but the rest of the country may not see it that way. Again, a quarter of Americans have said they would not vote for someone who is gay or lesbian, which likely aren’t going to be her voters anyways, but a quarter of the electorate is still a huge amount.



Baldwin's chances of winning: 7%

[NeverAgain]

Governor Tom Wolf

Governor Wolf is the 47th and current Governor of Pennsylvania, since taking office after the 2014 Republican wave. A Democrat, he defeated Republican incumbent Tom Corbett in the 2014 gubernatorial election. Previously, Wolf served as the Secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue from April 2007 until November 2008 and as an executive in his family-owned business.

PROS
• Business connections. Governor Wolf is not “all talk” on businesses, he has operated his own successful one for decades, and has been able to speak directly and assist many small business people in Pennsylvania, and now seeks to do this for the rest of the nation.

• Successfully managed the state budget. In Governor Wolf’s first year in office, he was able to pass a budget that includes an increase in education spending, reductions in property taxes and the corporate tax, and a new severance tax on natural gas.

• Won by 10 points, in a Republican year, in a state that voted for President Trump. We cannot underscore the importance of Pennsylvania in last years election, and it’s necessity if President Trump wants to win another term. Governor Wolf won the state by 10 points in 2014, the famous Republican Wave, and again in 2018. This bodes well for him if he does win the nomination

CONS
• Has prostate cancer. While we hate to bring this up, this does play a big role in whether Wolf can even seek the office, let alone win it. He has assured people that it will not affect his ability to function as Governor, but the Presidency is a much more strenuous and draining job, which having their president with a serious disease may hurt his likelihood.

• Low-Middle Approvals. While Governor Wolf has been popular in campaigning and elections (winning strong wins both times). His governing approvals say otherwise, in 2017 his approvals were stuck at the low 40’s and after 2018, they still aren’t getting any better.


Wolf's chances of winning: 2%

Senator Tammy Duckworth

Senator Tammy Duckworth is a decorated Iraq War veteran who served as the Director of the Illinois Department of Veteran Affairs 2008-2009 then as Assistant Secretary for Public and Intergovernmental Affairs for the US Department of Affairs 2009-2011.  She was elected to the U.S. House for Illinois’ 8th district in 2013 and served on the Armed Forces Committee as well as the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.  She was elected to the Senate in 2016, a known supporter of reproductive rights, Affordable Care Act, immigration reform, and veteran health.

PROS
• Compelling life story. Senator Duckworth was born in Thailand to a Thai mother and American father, representing the second Asian-American woman in the Senate.  More compelling, though, is her military history, serving as a pilot that was brought down.  She lost both legs and had an injured her right arm for which she won the Purple Heart.

• Strong expertise on Veteran Affairs.Senator Duckworth served as a US Army helicopter pilot and was severely wounded.  She served in administrative roles in the IL VA and the US VA before being elected to the US House and serving on the Committee for Veterans Affairs.

• Progressive leanings.Senator Duckworth is a known supporter of reproductive rights, Affordable Care Act, immigration reform, and veteran’s health.

CONS
• Seen as Inexperienced with limited legislative experience.Had a very short tenure in the US House before progressing to the Senate.

• Race and being born outside of the US.Senator Duckworth was born in Thailand to a Thai mother and American father.

• No major legislative accomplishments.Senator Duckworth is known to support progressive positions, but has not been at the forefront of any of these causes.


Duckworth's chances of winning: 9%

Senator Cory Booker

Cory Booker, Fmr. Mayor, and now Senator of New Jersey, for 7 years. Now has both executive and legislative experience. Booker has been a national figure since the mid-2000s, when he was elected mayor of Newark, New Jersey. His résumé - football at Stanford, Rhodes scholarship - is very impressive.

PROS
• Young. At just 50, Booker is seen as a young leader for Democrats, and in a field of many older than 65, he may have a slight advantage over the crowd.

• Charismatic and Passionate Speaker. There is little argument over Senator Booker’s ability to speak to mass crowds, passionately about the issues. He is seen as the second coming of Fmr. President Obama for his charismatic speaker style, and down-to-earth manner.

• Race. As we’ve said, Senator Booker’s race is a major factor in his current success in the nomination race. His ability to reach out to Southern African-Americans, will be crucial in his goal to become the face of the Democrats for 2020.

CONS
• Ties to Wall Street. For Democrats, there is no ignoring the fact that Senator Booker is EXTREMELY cosy with Wall St., which in Year 4 of the outsider President, is not a help to his campaign.

• Very little, to no accomplishment in the Senate. Now, having been in the Senate for 6 years, he has accomplished very little, while there. While President Obama was criticized for this, being there for only 4, he was able to overcome that to win not only the nomination, but two terms as President.

• Shaky 2013 + 2014 Campaigns. Booker was criticized for his two very “shaky” campaign two years in a row. Both started out as Republican leads (or tossups), in a VERY Democratic State. Booker did pull off a 10 point victory both times, but at a very high cost (spending 58-1 over his opponent).


Booker's chances of winning: 7%

Senator Maria Cantwell

Senator Cantwell is the Junior United States Senator from Washington, serving since 2001. She previously served in the Washington House of Representatives from 1987 to 1993 and then in the United States House of Representatives from Washington's 1st congressional district from 1993 to 1995, after which she worked as an executive for RealNetworks. She is Washington's second female senator, after Patty Murray.

PROS
• Has taken strong stands on the issues, especially privacy. Cantwell was arguably single-handedly the reason the “Clipper-Chip”, which would have allowed the NSA to tap phone lines and other technologies, failed. She has been a strong advocate for environmental fairness and free trade, voting for NAFTA, and helping write TPP.

• Known as a strong fighter. In her multiple campaigns, Cantwell has been known for her aggressive campaigning, never giving up until the bitter end. In her 1994 Congressional Race, she lost by a mere couple hundred votes, and went into the private sector, but she came back to win the Democratic nomination in a heated race 3-1, and went on to win the 2000 Senate Race, due to her campaigning style.

CONS
• Too Moderate/Hawkish. Before she was known as “Senator Cantwell”, she was a Representative, who was known as the most “pro-business” in the country, she voted for the Iraq War, and was staunchly against the public option for ACA. While this may attract many Moderates to the Democratic fold, it may also push away progressives who seem to be so vital to the election this year..

Cantwell's chances of winning: 2%

[NeverAgain]

Governor Jerry Brown

Fmr. Governor Brown is now the successful 4 term Governor of his home of California. He’s been everything from Presidential Candidate to a student of Buddhist teachings. This is his 4th Presidential Run, and on the chance it’s successful… We’ll just have to see how President Moonbeam handles the Oval Office.

PROS
• EXPERIENCED. Brown has been in and out of politics since he was basically born. His father, Pat Brown, was elected to 2 terms as governor and then in 1966, Brown was elected at 28 to the position of AG of California, the youngest ever. Now he has over 50 years of governmental experience, and his career apparently isn’t over yet.

• Was a very popular governor. Brown was extremely popular as governor, he cut taxes for millions of Californians, raised wages for all workers, and helped to resolve the dire effects of climate change in his state (aka - the drought).

• Seen as Progressive Icon for his runs in the 80’s and 90’s. In 1992, Brown championed many liberal issues such as the environment and campaign finance reform. He has continued this progressive streak and will likely pick up some former Bernie supporters in the process.

CONS
• Too old. At age 81 (82 on inauguration day), he will most definitely be the oldest President in this nation’s history. Now, as we all are living much longer, this won’t the most major deciding issue in the race, but it is very worrying that the President will likely be older than 90% of the population when he is sworn in.

• Too moderate on taxes. In 1992, Governor Brown campaigned strongly on the “flat tax” which abolished the progressive tax bracket system, replacing it with a 15% income tax for all Americans. This flew directly in the face of Democratic ideals, and even some Republicans drew up red flags. Governor Brown hasn’t released his plan on taxes yet, but for the average Democratic voter this could be a hot issue.


Brown's chances of winning: 2%

Governor Andrew Cuomo

Andrew Cuomo is the 56th Governor of New York since January 1, 2011. Cuomo was elected in 2010, holding the same position his father, Mario Cuomo, held for three terms from 1983 to 1995. He was also Secretary of HUD under President Clinton between 1997-2001. He was re-elected Governor in 2014 and 2018, after Democratic victories of the legalization of same sex marriage and tightening gun regulations.

PROS
• Comes from a famous political family. Now the Cuomo’s have been a force in the Democratic party for decades, and while much of their influence is limited to New York, the “old guard” would certainly line up to support the Governor.

• Successful 3-term governor of NY. Governor Cuomo has been seen as very successful in his actions as Governor. He’s cut taxes, supported sound environmental policies, and worked on passing gun regulations to protect his constituents. Though this success is solely for New Yorkers, many Democrats may seek to support these policies nationwide.

CONS
• Seen as too centrist - Angers Progressives. As Governor, Cuomo has been liberal on many issues, but apparently not on the ones that count for many progressives, especially taxes and the role of government. In 2014 he faced a spirited Primary challenge from Zephyr Teachout, a very liberal progressive from upstate New York. She lost, but did weaken the Governor. He has seemingly shored up these problems, but the issue will still remain

• Are Americans New York’d out? In 2016, both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump haild from, and set their campaign HQ’s in New York, now 3 years later, both Cuomo and DeBlasio are possible Trump challengers, and so the worry will likely still remain that of the 50 states, it seems only one can nominate Presidential candidates.

Cuomo's chances of winning: 7%

538 General Election Map

[Blackacre]

FINALLY!!! Thanks for being so patient, everyone!

Saturday August 3rd, 2019: The First Democratic Primary Debate (Part 1)

The first part of the first Democratic Presidential Debate came and went. The partnership between the DNC and MSNBC ensured that everybody got a fair shake, which had its pros and its cons. Candidates like Cory Booker and Kate Brown (who actually got the centre podium) were given screentime that they wouldn’t have had in a different format, and moderators Rachel Maddow, Chris Hayes, and Steve Kornacki did a very good job asking followups when needed and letting the candidates speak amongst themselves when needed. On the other hand, some of the gravitas of the debate was affected by the fact that everyone knew it was only a Part One and that roughly half of the candidates weren’t going to turn up. The debate format was proof that Democrats who criticised the RNC and Fox News four years back for their format weren’t being hypocritical, and for what it’s worth, it showed that both approaches had their own merits and flaws.

But of course, what the most watched night in Democratic Primary Debate history really starred were the candidates themselves. So, how’d they do?


I think a lot of our problems as a country right now comes from the thin-skinned incompetent narcissist in the White House. His ego-boosting tirades have cost us jobs and weakened our standing in the world. Having said that, the problems of obscene income inequality, the dominance of big money in politics, and the control of Wall Street over our government predate Trump and will live on after he’s gone unless we have a President willing to fight those forces.

Donald Trump is a bully, plain and simple, and bullies lose when the little people stand up to him. That’s how I’ve been a thorn on his side, and that’s how I or anyone else in this room would take him down.

She didn’t have the center podium, but Elizabeth Warren remained the center of attention, combining pointed personal attacks on Trump with discussions of policy. In a lesser crowd, she’d have dominated the evening, and even in this one she proved formidable. However, she couldn’t grab all the spotlight from her fellow Democrats.

Overall, night one of the debate was a solid night for most of the candidates who participated. Warren and Booker seemed to give the best performances, while the Browns (Kate and Sherrod) were at least able to get themselves on the big screen in front of a large audience, and Tom Wolf and Ron Wyden probably ended the night wishing it hadn’t happened.

No polling was taken between nights 1 and 2 of the debate; it would be unfair to the six Democrats we’re about to see.

Next time: Part 2 of the first debate! Tammy Baldwin, Bill de Blasio, Maria Cantwell, Andrew Cuomo, Tammy Duckworth and Al Franken duke it out!

[Blackacre]

Sunday, August 4th, 2019: The First Democratic Primary Debate (Part 2)

Thankfully, everyone knew that the first night of the debate wouldn?t be the only night. On the exact same stage, with the exact same moderators and the same famous MSNBC election theme music, the even numbered candidates were given the chance to make their case to the American people. Two Tammies, an SNL writer, the New York Duo, and a longshot took to the podiums. Let?s see how they did.


What the people are saying is that they don?t want Roe v. Wade overturned, they don?t want their taxes raised to pay for tax breaks for the ultra-rich, and they don?t want to be in danger of losing their job just because of their sexual orientation.

I do have an infrastructure plan, it?s on my website and it?s the same bill that I introduced in the Senate. It would put millions of our forgotten manufacturing workers back in the workforce and bring our roads and bridges into the 21st century. I also believe in the 10-20-30 antipoverty program that would lift up our most vulnerable, both in our rural areas and in our cities. The President doesn?t understand that we should be focusing on poverty in all parts of the country, and it?s important we don?t fall into the same trap.

The unexpected star of the evening was Tammy Baldwin. Baldwin proved powerful on the debate stage, articulating policy, attacking Trump, and setting herself apart from the rest of the crowd. Before the debate, she was just another midwesterner with LGBT support. After, not so much.


Every time an innocent black teenager?s life is lost because of police brutality or vigilantism, we are all the worse for it. This kind of racial bias is as old as America, and we must address it if we?re ever going to succeed as a nation. That?s why my first priority will be reforming our criminal justice system and holding the police accountable for uses of deadly force.

You can?t do a good job as mayor unless you?re aware of the concerns of your constituents. New York suffers every time a hate crime is committed by someone who thinks the President is on his side. That?s why it?s so important to have Donald Trump out of office. Even if he doesn?t get a single policy changed, what his victory meant for black and brown people in this country is reprehensible enough.

Bill de Blasio had a solid night of his own. He was clearly the most comfortable talking about issues of racial injustice in the room, and was able to prove himself as a liberal heavyweight. However, since he was already going strong in the polls any wasn?t breaking any expectations, it was unclear how much the debate could really do for him.


Donald Trump promised to lower taxes, but instead most New Yorkers and indeed most Americans saw a tax hike. It?d be foolish to not give the people what they want. Wouldn?t that be a change of pace after the con man of a President leaves office?

Andrew Cuomo was the unfortunate punching bag of the debate. He was piled on by the other Democrats for not being a team player, for his record towards unions, particularly teachers? unions, and for his relationship with corruption.


I?d like to interject because my friend here is misrepresenting my time in Congress. I have proposed and co-sponsored bills that would help millions of Americans, but they were always blocked by McConnell and would have been vetoed by Trump anyway.

Tammy Duckworth was a bit of a nonentity during the debate. She was able to speak on her disability and service in Iraq, but her lack of productivity in Congress left her open to attacks from her opponents.


I think the most pressing issue is the Supreme Court. If Donald Trump gets to appoint another justice, the consequences could be catastrophic for millions of women across the country.

Maria Cantwell didn?t do much either. She didn?t have many questions lobbed her way and didn?t do a very good job separating herself from the rest of the field.


I think the problem we face is that too many people don?t think we?re listening to them and their concerns. If you think politicians don?t care about you, then anyone who claims to care, even if it is a con man and a demagogue, is going to fill that void. The only thing that beats demagoguery is empathy.

I?ve spent my whole political career listening to the people of Minnesota, and I can safely say that it?s harder to do that than it is to grandstand and make these proclamations.

If Baldwin was the unexpected star, Al Franken was the expected one. The Al Franken who did his homework, kept his head down, and worked hard in the Senate proved powerful in the somber environment of the debate stage. This was, after all, his path to victory in lieu of the kinds of fiery speeches given by his competitors.

Overall, it seemed to be a great night for Baldwin and Franken, a good night for de Blasio, a bad night for Cantwell and Duckworth, and a terrible one for Cuomo.

Next time: The events of the first debate get reflected in the polls!

[NeverAgain]

Go Al!

[America Needs R'hllor]

Loved this! Both the debate and the 538 profiles
Just a small nitpick- NeverAgain, I think you swapped between Governor Kate Brown and Governor Jerry Brown.

[Blackacre]

Loved this! Both the debate and the 538 profiles
Just a small nitpick- NeverAgain, I think you swapped between Governor Kate Brown and Governor Jerry Brown.

Yeah, he did. It was more my fault. In hindsight I should have put everyone's first names on the polling.

But then again, you know what they say.

Hindsight is 2020.

[Blackacre]

Wednesday, August 7th, 2019

If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For? (Democrats)
Sen. Elizabeth Warren: 14%
Sen. Tammy Baldwin: 14%
Sen. Al Franken: 14%
Sen. Cory Booker: 12%
Sen. Sherrod Brown: 12%
Mayor Bill de Blasio: 11%
Gov. Tom Wolf: 5%
Gov. Kate Brown: 4%
Sen. Ron Wyden: 4%
Sen. Maria Cantwell: 2%
Sen. Tammy Duckworth: 2%
Gov. Andrew Cuomo: 1%

The results of the debate clearly affected polling. Warren’s tenuous lead has become a three-way tie with Franken and Baldwin, the latter of whom jumped up 7 points after her strong debate performance. Booker’s stock jumped up too while de Blasio and Sherrod Brown lost some ground. Meanwhile, Wyden’s support plummeted, as did Duckworth’s, and Cuomo received the dubious honer of being dead last. Is a top tier truly emerging or are these temporary debate bumps that will fade into the ether? Will one candidate actually run away with clear front-runner status in a forcibly equalised field? Who knows!

If Your State’s Primary Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For? (Republicans)
President Trump: 69%
Sen. Cruz: 28%

Cruz seems to be gaining ground on the President, though Trump’s lead is still a comfortable 41 points.

Next time: It’s a blood sport…

[America Needs R'hllor]

Next time: It’s a blood sport…

*Squeals* the hungry for power games!

[GoTfan]

Clip from Secular Talk's show on August 5 2019

So over the last two days, we've had the Democratic debates. So obviously the big question is: Who won them.

Well the first debate I had as a tie between Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker. Now I know that sounds stupid and makes me nauseous, but the reality is that Cory Booker is just a masterful debater. He had a couple of epic lines in it, and in this style over substance world, that will count for more. However, on substance, it was Warren hands down. She ran on her ability to effectively oppose Trump and her liberal record, and she did well for herself.

Now the second night was easily won by Tammy Baldwin. She was able to give proper attacks on Trump and not the fake PC outrage that Hillary Clinton relied on. Moreover, the policies she gave are progressive. Now you guys want to see a progressive win and so do I, but those out there who want a woman President, you have people like Tammy Baldwin who can unit both wings. Now she's going to face undoubted opposition from social conservatives, but she is now one of the frontrunners for the nomination, and honestly, that's only a good thing.

Now I know there's a lot of people out there who thought I was going to say Sherrod Brown won the first debate, and he did do very well, don't get me wrong. When Ron Wyden tried to pick a trade fight with him, he absolutely mopped the floor with him. The second debate was even better because Andrew Cuomo, who is the epitome of the Democratic establishment just became a massive punching bag for everyone. I would say he's done, but I don't think he is.

As for Sherrod Brown doing well, he is still doing well in the polls. Now we actually wrote to Sherrod Brown's campaign and we got the following response:

"At the end of the day, this election is going to be about who has the best vision for America going forward. While we can't guarantee that Sherrod Brown will be in first in the polls forever, we do believe that he has the message, the vision, and the drive to be a powerful standard-bearer for the Democratic Party, and after the debates and campaigns have run their course, we believe the American people will see that and agree."

Now he's from a state the Democrats need to win. In my mind, he'd be a great nominee and even if not, I'd imagine he'd be the VP nominee by default.

There's also a lot of people who are thinking to themselves 'why isn't Martin O'Malley running? '. If we're being honest, I was too, so we also wrote to him and got the following response:

"To be completely honest, I have given a Presidential run a lot of thought. I'd be lying if I said I hadn't. Having said that, my campaign in 2016 never got off the ground, and after some soul-searching, I decided I'd rather be a Senator and work for the people of Maryland than try to run for President again. It wouldn't be right to enter my new job and then turn around and ask for another one right away."

Now I think in the first part he is being hard on himself to an extent. He was running against Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders and the fact is he was never going to get off the ground against them. That being said, I think he can position himself as the liberal firebrand in the Senate if Elizabeth Warren gets the nomination; not to mention he'd be a good VP pick.

So overall, good times to be a progressive in this country.

OOC: I know I'm using the same image as before, but there's few better ones I can find

[Blackacre]

Next time: It’s a blood sport…

*Squeals* the hungry for power games!

Damnit, you got me figured out

Thursday, August 8th, 2019


I feel bad for these candidates. They’re all prominent officeholders, and yet here they are battling each other for our amusement. This campaign is yet another reminder that our politics is a blood sport. It’s like The Hunger Games. No, it’s more than that. It’s!!!

 
THE HUNGRY FOR POWER GAMES!


Yes, yes, welcome to the Hungry for Power games! Tributes, assemble! Oh, there’s so many of them. What a bounty we have this year. Now, let’s have the liberal blond northern senator in a pantsuit fight the other liberal blond northern senator in a pantsuit! Ah, may the margin of error be ever in your favour!

We’re here today to mourn the first tribute to fall in this year’s Hungry for Power Games: New York Governor and weird man who tries too hard to look cool Andrew Cuomo. The governor started out with such promise, too. He was elected to serve three terms as Governor of the Empire State, has a history of bipartisanship and is the son of legendary New York figure Mario Cuomo. But while Mario was beloved in New York, his son Andrew couldn’t jump over the bottomless pit of his corruption, nor defeat the giant spiky turtle of limited campaign funds. Eventually, Cuomo had to accept that he ran out of lives, and reached a Game Over.


I am sad to announce today that I will be suspending my campaign. It’s been an incredible journey, and I’m sorry to everyone who I’m letting down today.


You don’t have to worry about that, Governor, since you were polling at 1%! 1%! Below Senator Who, Governor Nobody, and an ice cream cone! Had you kept going, the only politician whose success you might have reached would have been Jim Gilmore. But, a loss, no matter how puny and insignificant, is still a loss, and with that in mind, let us pay tribute, to the fallen.

THE FALLEN
ANDREW CUOMO
DISTRICT: TURTLE

Next time: A plan being concocted within the DNC comes to light! It's not what you think!