2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

DCCC Poll in KY-06:

Blue wave DEAD.

Because of heavy rains in Central KY in November?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

Colin Allred strikes me as a much better challenger than Fletcher. I don't think Sessions is much safer.

Allred is a great challenger, and TX-32 might be competitive. It's increasingly hard to see Sessions win by double digits. But actually overtaking Sessions in votes is going to be tough...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

Colin Allred strikes me as a much better challenger than Fletcher. I don't think Sessions is much safer.

Allred is a great challenger, and TX-32 might be competitive. It's increasingly hard to see Sessions win by double digits. But actually overtaking Sessions in votes is going to be tough...

It's tough, but it is doable. I would rate this race as weak lean R right now, yay my district is finally getting coverage again .

IMO, Allred's biggest job is to make this a race, so that the GOP $$ goes towards helping Sessions instead of defending elsewhere. Stretch opposition resources and all that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

Colin Allred strikes me as a much better challenger than Fletcher. I don't think Sessions is much safer.

Allred is a great challenger, and TX-32 might be competitive. It's increasingly hard to see Sessions win by double digits. But actually overtaking Sessions in votes is going to be tough...

It's tough, but it is doable. I would rate this race as weak lean R right now, yay my district is finally getting coverage again .

IMO, Allred's biggest job is to make this a race, so that the GOP $$ goes towards helping Sessions instead of defending elsewhere. Stretch opposition resources and all that.

It already is a race believe me, Sessions is the favorite, but this is by no means a cakewalk, he will have to fight, and I would not guarantee him victory at this point.

Yeah, but this is quite inelastic of an area (an area that was electing Republicans in the 1950s), with an incumbent who is a good fit for the seat. We have an A-list recruit but the fact remains that the range of which the final result will lie in is likely narrow. And the vast bulk of that range lies below the vote share needed for Allred to defeat Sessions.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

Colin Allred strikes me as a much better challenger than Fletcher. I don't think Sessions is much safer.

Allred is a great challenger, and TX-32 might be competitive. It's increasingly hard to see Sessions win by double digits. But actually overtaking Sessions in votes is going to be tough...

It's tough, but it is doable. I would rate this race as weak lean R right now, yay my district is finally getting coverage again .

IMO, Allred's biggest job is to make this a race, so that the GOP $$ goes towards helping Sessions instead of defending elsewhere. Stretch opposition resources and all that.

It already is a race believe me, Sessions is the favorite, but this is by no means a cakewalk, he will have to fight, and I would not guarantee him victory at this point.

Yeah, but this is quite inelastic of an area (an area that was electing Republicans in the 1950s), with an incumbent who is a good fit for the seat. We have an A-list recruit but the fact remains that the range of which the final result will lie in is likely narrow. And the vast bulk of that range lies below the vote share needed for Allred to defeat Sessions.

Sessions has a lot of problems here locally, and he won't do much better than liddle Abney. He also does not fit the district as well as you might think. Tx 32nd is not all land rovers and parkies. And from here enthusiasm for Allred is through the roof. This will be close no doubt. The people that are backing Sessions are fairly unenthusiastic and some a little shy about saying so.

TX-32 is Country Club Republican territory.
Pete Sessions is a died-in-the-wool Country Club Republican.
The road to winning this seat is through flipping those Country Club Republicans.
Clinton may have won this seat by 3, but Romney won it by 15. Enthusiasm helps but it's not enough by itself to flip this district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sessions is still overwhelmingly likely to be re-elected, and Culberson is somewhat less favored but still over 50/50.
Hurd is in more danger...

Colin Allred strikes me as a much better challenger than Fletcher. I don't think Sessions is much safer.

Allred is a great challenger, and TX-32 might be competitive. It's increasingly hard to see Sessions win by double digits. But actually overtaking Sessions in votes is going to be tough...

It's tough, but it is doable. I would rate this race as weak lean R right now, yay my district is finally getting coverage again .

IMO, Allred's biggest job is to make this a race, so that the GOP $$ goes towards helping Sessions instead of defending elsewhere. Stretch opposition resources and all that.

It already is a race believe me, Sessions is the favorite, but this is by no means a cakewalk, he will have to fight, and I would not guarantee him victory at this point.

Yeah, but this is quite inelastic of an area (an area that was electing Republicans in the 1950s), with an incumbent who is a good fit for the seat. We have an A-list recruit but the fact remains that the range of which the final result will lie in is likely narrow. And the vast bulk of that range lies below the vote share needed for Allred to defeat Sessions.

Sessions has a lot of problems here locally, and he won't do much better than liddle Abney. He also does not fit the district as well as you might think. Tx 32nd is not all land rovers and parkies. And from here enthusiasm for Allred is through the roof. This will be close no doubt. The people that are backing Sessions are fairly unenthusiastic and some a little shy about saying so.

TX-32 is Country Club Republican territory.
Pete Sessions is a died-in-the-wool Country Club Republican.
The road to winning this seat is through flipping those Country Club Republicans.
Clinton may have won this seat by 3, but Romney won it by 15. Enthusiasm helps but it's not enough by itself to flip this district.

This district has a lot of country club Republicans, but it also has tons of Hispanics and Blacks, it is NOT all country club GOPer's by a long way. Pete Sessions is running a competetive race, and he is not much stronger than liddle Abney. He has many local issues with residency and enthusiasm that many voters know about, we need to get the message out there more though. Enthusiasm alone won't win the district on its own, but it is enough to get it to mid to low single digits, which it will be which I am defining as 0-7 pt mov for Sessions.

Hispanic turnout in Texas is terrible. Many cannot vote, and many of those who can vote don't. Black turnout is also quite atrocious.
We can't rely on minority turnout alone to defeat Sessions. Focusing on trying to turnout minorities and neglecting the country club R vote is unlikely to be a successful strategy.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The hot takes will start anew in July and August; remember back in 2010, Democratic operatives were talking about a comeback as late as September.

Too many people want to indulge in thinking that something they want to happen is in fact the thing certain or extremely likely to happen. Reality is that we don't know right now.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Obligatory disclaimer that these are internals.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Tenney is DOA


McGrath's chances are north of 80%

McGrath is probably likely to win but no way she wins by 15 points or more.
Again, this is an internal.