2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[IceSpear]

Yeah, Dems almost win an R+13 seat in AZ with a some lady and pick up R+11 PA-18 all in the last three months, but sure, the House is merely a tossup.

But those things happened months ago, you see. It's much smarter to rely on a Reuters poll that has whiplashed from R+7 to D+8 in a few weeks for literally no reason.

[KingSweden]

I like that Monmouth is doing a RV/LV model split. This actually gives us good insight into districts and how races are going

Me too. I hope other pollsters explore this as well, it is a prudent way of dissecting and interpreting the electorate

[LimoLiberal]

Fitzpatrick is moderate and well-known.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Fitzpatrick is moderate and well-known.

Correct so the RV/LV shows how much Trump still is an anchor around candidates

[ON Progressive]

Fitzpatrick is moderate and well-known.

And that's still not enough to prevent him from being under 50% among registered voters, nevermind likely voters where it is almost a tie between him and an opponent which most people don't even know.

Also, the undecided have 34% Trump approval, which suggests most undecided voters go to Wallace.

[mencken]

Yeah, Dems almost win an R+13 seat in AZ with a some lady and pick up R+11 PA-18 all in the last three months, but sure, the House is merely a tossup.

But those things happened months ago, you see. It's much smarter to rely on a Reuters poll that has whiplashed from R+7 to D+8 in a few weeks for literally no reason.

Polling averages have a history of being used to predict elections. Averaging all the special elections over the two years before the midterms lacks a comparable track record of out-of-sample performance.

[LimoLiberal]

I think the poll is pretty good for Democrats. They should be worried about Trump having a net approval of -2, though, that suggests he is about even nationwide.

[BudgieForce]

I think the poll is pretty good for Democrats. They should be worried about Trump having a net approval of -2, though, that suggests he is about even nationwide.

No it doesnt.

[Politician]

I think the poll is pretty good for Democrats. They should be worried about Trump having a net approval of -2, though, that suggests he is about even nationwide.

No it doesnt.

[UncleSam]

I think the poll is pretty good for Democrats. They should be worried about Trump having a net approval of -2, though, that suggests he is about even nationwide.

No it doesnt.

Wasn’t this a Hillary+1 district? If he is -2 in it it would stand to reason he is close to even nationwide.

The problem of course being that swings in approval don’t happen uniformly. Still, there’s no reason to think he is unduly popular in this district as compared to his 2016 performance.

[BudgieForce]

I think the poll is pretty good for Democrats. They should be worried about Trump having a net approval of -2, though, that suggests he is about even nationwide.

No it doesnt.

Wasn’t this a Hillary+1 district? If he is -2 in it it would stand to reason he is close to even nationwide.

The problem of course being that swings in approval don’t happen uniformly. Still, there’s no reason to think he is unduly popular in this district as compared to his 2016 performance.

If Trump is about where he was on election night 2016, that would not equate to an even national approval rating.

Edit: If one was to directly correlate his approval ratings now with a vote for him in 2016, you could extrapolate Trump having approval ratings in the low 40s.

[UncleSam]

I think the poll is pretty good for Democrats. They should be worried about Trump having a net approval of -2, though, that suggests he is about even nationwide.

No it doesnt.

Wasn’t this a Hillary+1 district? If he is -2 in it it would stand to reason he is close to even nationwide.

The problem of course being that swings in approval don’t happen uniformly. Still, there’s no reason to think he is unduly popular in this district as compared to his 2016 performance.

If Trump is about where he was on election night 2016, that would not equate to an even national approval rating.

Edit: If one was to directly correlate his approval ratings now with a vote for him in 2016, you could extrapolate Trump having approval ratings in the low 40s.

His approval is -2 in this district from what I’m gathering. I’m not sure what you’re doing but if his approval is at -2 he is definitely doing better in this district than he was in terms of approval in 2016. That isn’t the question, however. The question is if he is at -2 here and lost the district by one, then what would that equate to nationally? Assuming that approval varies roughly linearly with 2016 vote total (which is a reasonable assumption), this would result in him being -3 in approval with the 2016 electorate, or -1 with an electorate that is 50/50 in the PV.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Usually the Pub does better rather than worse with LV's versus RV's.  That suggests a malaise problem for the Pubs, or maybe an indicator that the SES profile of Pub voters on average as fallen in the Trump era, or both. 

Also, I know that MoCo only makes up 80,000 people of this district and the MoE is crazy with this sub-sample, but Wallace dominates there 52-31. Could make up the difference in the end.

Also look at the education differential:

Whites (no degree): Fitzgerald 59-33
Whites (with degree): Wallace 50-43
Non-whites: Wallace 51-32

This does suggest that at least a significant part of the difference between RV and LV (although surely some is also coming from Pub malaise as well).

Less educated voters drop off in midterms much more than educated voters do. So while Pubs have traditionally done relatively better with LVs than RVs because of higher socioeconomic status of Pubs, that will be less the case now.

In basically all suburban districts in which Dems are doing better with educated white voters (particularly in ones with few minorities, such as in the Philly suburbs), we should expect to see this sort of dynamic.

On the other hand, in districts where Dems are more reliant on minority voters and young voters (who drop off in midterms at higher than average rates), Pubs are more likely to still do better with LVs than with RVs.

[BudgieForce]

I think the poll is pretty good for Democrats. They should be worried about Trump having a net approval of -2, though, that suggests he is about even nationwide.

No it doesnt.

Wasn’t this a Hillary+1 district? If he is -2 in it it would stand to reason he is close to even nationwide.

The problem of course being that swings in approval don’t happen uniformly. Still, there’s no reason to think he is unduly popular in this district as compared to his 2016 performance.

If Trump is about where he was on election night 2016, that would not equate to an even national approval rating.

Edit: If one was to directly correlate his approval ratings now with a vote for him in 2016, you could extrapolate Trump having approval ratings in the low 40s.

His approval is -2 in this district from what I’m gathering. I’m not sure what you’re doing but if his approval is at -2 he is definitely doing better in this district than he was in terms of approval in 2016. That isn’t the question, however. The question is if he is at -2 here and lost the district by one, then what would that equate to nationally? Assuming that approval varies roughly linearly with 2016 vote total (which is a reasonable assumption), this would result in him being -3 in approval with the 2016 electorate, or -1 with an electorate that is 50/50 in the PV.

Like I said, I'm equating his vote percentage in 2016 and his approval ratings now.

Edit: Going further, exit polls had Trump approval in Pennsylvania on election night at 42%. If Trump won 48% of the vote in district 8, and his approval rating in the new very similar district 1 according to Monmouth is 47%, I'm gonna assume his approval state wide is in the low 40%.

[UncleSam]

I think the poll is pretty good for Democrats. They should be worried about Trump having a net approval of -2, though, that suggests he is about even nationwide.

No it doesnt.

Wasn’t this a Hillary+1 district? If he is -2 in it it would stand to reason he is close to even nationwide.

The problem of course being that swings in approval don’t happen uniformly. Still, there’s no reason to think he is unduly popular in this district as compared to his 2016 performance.

If Trump is about where he was on election night 2016, that would not equate to an even national approval rating.

Edit: If one was to directly correlate his approval ratings now with a vote for him in 2016, you could extrapolate Trump having approval ratings in the low 40s.

His approval is -2 in this district from what I’m gathering. I’m not sure what you’re doing but if his approval is at -2 he is definitely doing better in this district than he was in terms of approval in 2016. That isn’t the question, however. The question is if he is at -2 here and lost the district by one, then what would that equate to nationally? Assuming that approval varies roughly linearly with 2016 vote total (which is a reasonable assumption), this would result in him being -3 in approval with the 2016 electorate, or -1 with an electorate that is 50/50 in the PV.

Like I said, I'm equating his vote percentage in 2016 and his approval ratings now.

Edit: Going further, exit polls had Trump approval in Pennsylvania on election night at 42%. If Trump won 48% of the vote in district 8, and his approval rating in the new very similar district 1 according to Monmouth is 47%, I'm gonna assume his approval state wide is in the low 40%.

You’re literally working backwards to try and get his approval to be 35% nationally based on...approvals in the high forties? That makes literally no sense. If his approval now is ten points higher than it was on election night 2016 but similar to his vote share you can’t say that ‘his approvals now are similar to his vote share then which means that his approvals ationwide are similar to what they were then’. Do you not see why this is blatantly and obviously incorrect?

[BudgieForce]

I think the poll is pretty good for Democrats. They should be worried about Trump having a net approval of -2, though, that suggests he is about even nationwide.

No it doesnt.

Wasn’t this a Hillary+1 district? If he is -2 in it it would stand to reason he is close to even nationwide.

The problem of course being that swings in approval don’t happen uniformly. Still, there’s no reason to think he is unduly popular in this district as compared to his 2016 performance.

If Trump is about where he was on election night 2016, that would not equate to an even national approval rating.

Edit: If one was to directly correlate his approval ratings now with a vote for him in 2016, you could extrapolate Trump having approval ratings in the low 40s.

His approval is -2 in this district from what I’m gathering. I’m not sure what you’re doing but if his approval is at -2 he is definitely doing better in this district than he was in terms of approval in 2016. That isn’t the question, however. The question is if he is at -2 here and lost the district by one, then what would that equate to nationally? Assuming that approval varies roughly linearly with 2016 vote total (which is a reasonable assumption), this would result in him being -3 in approval with the 2016 electorate, or -1 with an electorate that is 50/50 in the PV.

Like I said, I'm equating his vote percentage in 2016 and his approval ratings now.

Edit: Going further, exit polls had Trump approval in Pennsylvania on election night at 42%. If Trump won 48% of the vote in district 8, and his approval rating in the new very similar district 1 according to Monmouth is 47%, I'm gonna assume his approval state wide is in the low 40%.

You’re literally working backwards to try and get his approval to be 35% nationally based on...approvals in the high forties? That makes literally no sense. If his approval now is ten points higher than it was on election night 2016 but similar to his vote share you can’t say that ‘his approvals now are similar to his vote share then which means that his approvals ationwide are similar to what they were then’. Do you not see why this is blatantly and obviously incorrect?

Yes. Yes I do.

[RogueBeaver]

47/37, Grimm leads on all issues, most voters say Trump's endorsement doesn't matter and Grimm was a better congressman.

[Gass3268]

Woof, do the Democrats have a decent candidate running here?

[Hindsight was 2020]

If this does happen this tops NE-02 way more for a self goal

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Woof, do the Democrats have a decent candidate running here?

A-list recruit

[Predictor]

Not sure if this has been posted here yet, WA-08 poll from GBA Strategies/House Majority Pac:

Rossi- 51%
Schrier- 45%

Rossi- 51%
Hader- 45%

Rossi- 52%
Rittereiser- 43%

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4492869-WA-8-Baseline-Survey-Analysis.html

[Bidenworth2020]

tilt r->tossup

[Suburbia]

Tilt R.

Donovan can run for Staten Island D.A. again in 2019 against former congressman Michael McMahon.

Staten Island politics is a house of dominoes and musical chairs.

If Grimm wins in 2018, it shows how different Republican voters feel on character and moral issues.

[KingSweden]

Not sure if this has been posted here yet, WA-08 poll from GBA Strategies/House Majority Pac:

Rossi- 51%
Schrier- 45%

Rossi- 51%
Hader- 45%

Rossi- 52%
Rittereiser- 43%

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4492869-WA-8-Baseline-Survey-Analysis.html

Are these the numbers before or after candidate descriptions?

[BBD]

How much would you bet that if Grimm wins the primary, Trump's going to pardon him?