2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[ON Progressive]

Ok why did my King Lear parody post get deleted? Fr.

You mean you do serious posts too?

[BuckeyeNut]

Ok why did my King Lear parody post get deleted? Fr.

You mean you do serious posts too?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lol. the National Review tweeted this old headline 29 minutes ago. The same article orgasming over the Reuters R+6 poll, that's now at R+7.

https://twitter.com/NRO/status/1000927409951203330

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lol. the National Review tweeted this old headline 29 minutes ago. The same article orgasming over the Reuters R+6 poll, that's not at R+7.

https://twitter.com/NRO/status/1000927409951203330

The reuters poll wasn't even the first time the GOP had a lead this cycle. A morning consult poll from April 20-24 had the GOP up 4 on the GCB.

Yes, they also had a field day with that one. They disappeared once the Dem's lead went back to +9.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So Sean Trende went on Fox today to say how the "blue wave is dead" and "the tax bill is more popular then expected" so this might explain the reason RCP isn't having the den friendly polls in their average

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So Sean Trende went on Fox today to say how the "blue wave is dead" and "the tax bill is more popular then expected" so this might explain the reason RCP isn't having the den friendly polls in their average

What a hack. He shifted 11 races in favor of the GOP after the R+6 blip, and hasn’t even spoken a word about it moving 13 points to the Democrats.

On the bright side, at least he’s creating a mood of complacency for the Republicans.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Trende has been the Lindsay Graham of punditry. He went from being a rabid Never Trumper to kissing his ass unashamedly.

[junior chįmp]

BIG enthusiasm gap in Michigan:

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[KingSweden]

“Bernie Porn”

My man, you can petition for a change of legal name at your local county courthouse

[Cold War Liberal]

“Bernie Porn”

My man, you can petition for a change of legal name at your local county courthouse

Alternatively, what are the odds that he is the biggest Bernie Bro on Earth and this is what he changed his name to?

[DINGO Joe]

Hill launches a Shak Attack as he blows up the 2018 Omnibus bill with an AR-15

https://bluevirginia.us/2018/05/video-va-10-gop-candidate-blows-up-2018-omnibus-bill-with-ar-15

But it took him like 10 or 12 shots to do it.  Loser.

[LimoLiberal]

Yougov: D+3

Was D+5 last year.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is kind of interesting.  I hadn't realized it's been so long since there was a live interview poll.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1000809842351656960

[ON Progressive]

This is kind of interesting.  I hadn't realized it's been so long since there was a live interview poll.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1000809842351656960

I feel like this is a significant part of why the GCB has shifted. Lower quality pollsters are dominating this month for some reason.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This is kind of interesting.  I hadn't realized it's been so long since there was a live interview poll.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1000809842351656960

I feel like this is a significant part of why the GCB has shifted. Lower quality pollsters are dominating this month for some reason.

Bingo. It's all been Reuters, Rasmussen, YouGov, etc. We haven't gotten one from Quinnipac in a long time.

[Gass3268]

This is kind of interesting.  I hadn't realized it's been so long since there was a live interview poll.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1000809842351656960

I feel like this is a significant part of why the GCB has shifted. Lower quality pollsters are dominating this month for some reason.

Bingo. It's all been Reuters, Rasmussen, YouGov, etc. We haven't gotten one from Quinnipac in a long time.

With the rise of cell phones and lower response rates, good quality polling has gotten really expensive and therefore rare.

[KingSweden]

This is kind of interesting.  I hadn't realized it's been so long since there was a live interview poll.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1000809842351656960

I feel like this is a significant part of why the GCB has shifted. Lower quality pollsters are dominating this month for some reason.

Bingo. It's all been Reuters, Rasmussen, YouGov, etc. We haven't gotten one from Quinnipac in a long time.

With the rise of cell phones and lower response rates, good quality polling has gotten really expensive and therefore rare.

Yup. The online ones are really bouncy, too, making it hard to get an accurate picture (like Reuters swinging by 13 points).

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This is kind of interesting.  I hadn't realized it's been so long since there was a live interview poll.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1000809842351656960

I feel like this is a significant part of why the GCB has shifted. Lower quality pollsters are dominating this month for some reason.

Bingo. It's all been Reuters, Rasmussen, YouGov, etc. We haven't gotten one from Quinnipac in a long time.

With the rise of cell phones and lower response rates, good quality polling has gotten really expensive and therefore rare.

Yup. The online ones are really bouncy, too, making it hard to get an accurate picture (like Reuters swinging by 13 points).

This is one reason why I am inclined to think that the generic congressional ballot may be a bit less predictive than it has been in the past. At least to the extent that it is more dominated by internet polls than in the past, it makes sense to put more focus on special election results and probably most importantly on the actions of the DCCC/NRCC. At the end the real tell for how the election is breaking will be when the two committees make their final ad reservations.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

This is one reason why I am inclined to think that the generic congressional ballot may be a bit less predictive than it has been in the past. At least to the extent that it is more dominated by internet polls than in the past, it makes sense to put more focus on special election results and probably most importantly on the actions of the DCCC/NRCC. At the end the real tell for how the election is breaking will be when the two committees make their final ad reservations.

If we go by special election results, D +20 might actually sound reasonable.

[KingSweden]

This is kind of interesting.  I hadn't realized it's been so long since there was a live interview poll.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1000809842351656960

I feel like this is a significant part of why the GCB has shifted. Lower quality pollsters are dominating this month for some reason.

Bingo. It's all been Reuters, Rasmussen, YouGov, etc. We haven't gotten one from Quinnipac in a long time.

With the rise of cell phones and lower response rates, good quality polling has gotten really expensive and therefore rare.

Yup. The online ones are really bouncy, too, making it hard to get an accurate picture (like Reuters swinging by 13 points).

This is one reason why I am inclined to think that the generic congressional ballot may be a bit less predictive than it has been in the past. At least to the extent that it is more dominated by internet polls than in the past, it makes sense to put more focus on special election results and probably most importantly on the actions of the DCCC/NRCC. At the end the real tell for how the election is breaking will be when the two committees make their final ad reservations.

Of course, that’s why I keep harping on GCB as *an* important factor, among several.

That being said there’s been some pullback in special election performances though some of that IMO can be explained by circumstances unique to the races or them happening concurrently with regular primaries.

[Gass3268]

Democrats (and especially Democratic women) are jacked to vote:

[UncleSam]

Democrats (and especially Democratic women) are jacked to vote:

Could you link the question or do you have access to it? Obviously Dems are more enthusiastic but be wary of polls which ask comparative questions like ‘are you MORE enthusiastic to vote this year than in prior years’ vs analytic questions like ‘how enthusiastic are you to vote this year’?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So despite the fact the GCB has tightened, the Dem's enthusiasm edge has been unwavering the entire time. This leads me to believe that whatever the GCB is on Election Day, the Dems are poised to outperform it.

[Gass3268]

Democrats (and especially Democratic women) are jacked to vote:

Could you link the question or do you have access to it? Obviously Dems are more enthusiastic but be wary of polls which ask comparative questions like ‘are you MORE enthusiastic to vote this year than in prior years’ vs analytic questions like ‘how enthusiastic are you to vote this year’?

Here you go

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Both sides are acting like self righteous hypocrites (including myself, I make fun of how others look occasionally as wel lol) but it is still wrong.