2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[KingSweden]

I don’t think anyone is suggesting the poll is accurate. The question is, what is it about the methodology that is different? If it’s a matter of having a rosier turnout model for Rs but also just seeing shifting opinions toward Rs, then it should get thrown in the average. If it’s more experimental, than it shouldn’t be thrown in the average yet until we see how it moves and reacts to shifting opinions.

If the generic ballot is actually down to around even, then an R+5.5 or whatever poll isn’t out of the question. It’s also possible that their turnout model tilts a few (or more than a few) points to the right, making the information valuable in change terms of not in absolute or top line terms.

It’s also possible this is just an outlier like we see all the time. Remember that CNN poll with D+20 or whatever? That looks as out of place next to the average as this does now, just in the other direction.

Yeah it’s worth recalling that CNN poll came out when the averages were more like D+10-11

Sure, but the difference was still 10 points or so off the average. R+5.5 is about the same in the other direction - should’ve been clear I meant adjusted for the difference in average.

I apologize if I was unclear, I was agreeing with your statement.

[Arkansas Yankee]

What is not to love about the new Reuters’ poll for a GOPer like me.  R+6.2..  However, until it is confirmed, I view it as a hopeful, pleasant outlier.

I have warned you before do not count Trump out.  He lives under a positive star.  He is a force of nature like Jackson and TR.

I actually believe you will finally beat him.  But do not count on it.

I believe the resistance may be in the process of causing a boomerang.  Be careful or you could get more Trump.

[LimoLiberal]

If it's R+6, Republicans don't lose anything but PA-05 and FL-27 and gain MN-1, MN-8, PA-7, both NH seats, NJ-5, FL-7, and PA-8.

[Politician]

If it's R+6, Republicans don't lose anything but PA-05 and FL-27 and gain MN-1, MN-8, PA-7, both NH seats, NJ-5, FL-7, and PA-8.

>Implying it could be
LMAO

[GeorgiaModerate]

If it's R+6, Republicans don't lose anything but PA-05 and FL-27 and gain MN-1, MN-8, PA-7, both NH seats, NJ-5, FL-7, and PA-8.

>Implying it could be
LMAO

I guess it's time for this periodic reminder:

[UncleSam]

If it's R+6, Republicans don't lose anything but PA-05 and FL-27 and gain MN-1, MN-8, PA-7, both NH seats, NJ-5, FL-7, and PA-8.

>Implying it could be
LMAO

I mean he’s not wrong based on his hypothetical, just the hypothetical is incredibly unlikely to actually occur.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Annie Kuster wouldn’t lose even in a R+6 environment (which will obviously never happen).

Actually, 2014 was an R+6 environment (but Annie Kuster survived it).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Stop acting like the R+6 poll is ever going to happen.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Heads Up: LL didn't post anything of substance. No need to click "show"

[KingSweden]

Heads Up: LL didn't post anything of substance. No need to click "show"

“LL didn’t post anything of substance”

Does that need to be said? Haha

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Heads Up: LL didn't post anything of substance. No need to click "show"

“LL didn’t post anything of substance”

Does that need to be said? Haha

Good point.

[junior chįmp]

Seemed like only 1 month ago they were touting how the tax bill would save their majority. Good night sweet prince

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[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Seemed like only 1 month ago they were touting how the tax bill would save their majority. Good night sweet prince

You must be logged in to read this quote.

With the North Korean summit on the brink of collapse, Trump and the GOP have nothing for the Midterms.

[Virginiá]

^ That poll was already posted. Read back a page.

[KingSweden]

I believe, per DKE, that Reuters poll LL creamed himself over has a R+4 sample, which would explain quite a bit

[BudgieForce]

I believe, per DKE, that Reuters poll LL creamed himself over has a R+4 sample, which would explain quite a bit

What is Reuters even doing?

[Strudelcutie4427]

Annie Kuster wouldn’t lose even in a R+6 environment (which will obviously never happen).

Actually, 2014 was an R+6 environment (but Annie Kuster survived it).

Yeah, I meant this year. But yeah, “rising star” Marilinda Garcia was supposed to give Kuster a run for her money in 2014 and ended up losing by 10 points in a R+6 year, lol. Kuster is beyond safe, even in a GOP wave year.

She only won by 3 in 2016 (D+2 national environment) against some random dude

[Politician]

Annie Kuster wouldn’t lose even in a R+6 environment (which will obviously never happen).

Actually, 2014 was an R+6 environment (but Annie Kuster survived it).

Yeah, I meant this year. But yeah, “rising star” Marilinda Garcia was supposed to give Kuster a run for her money in 2014 and ended up losing by 10 points in a R+6 year, lol. Kuster is beyond safe, even in a GOP wave year.

She only won by 3 in 2016 (D+2 national environment) against some random dude

In a D+6 environment, she'd easily be re-elected.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/999008718426689537

Agree with Sean here. Political environment pretty clearly shifting towards Republicans. No, R+6 is not realistic. But could easily see a tied generic ballot in which the Democrats only pick up a few open seats and don't beat an incumbent.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/AndrewHClark/status/998948301117493248

Agree with Sean here. Political environment pretty clearly shifting towards Republicans. No, R+6 is not realistic. But could easily see a tied generic ballot in which the Democrats only pick up a few open seats and don't beat an incumbent.

]
check the crosstab lmao

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/AndrewHClark/status/998948301117493248

Agree with Sean here. Political environment pretty clearly shifting towards Republicans. No, R+6 is not realistic. But could easily see a tied generic ballot in which the Democrats only pick up a few open seats and don't beat an incumbent.

Andrew Clark, worked for Romney and the NRCC. Of course he's creaming over this poll. I want Reuters to release a statement and explain why they screwed up their methodology.

[LimoLiberal]

^^ Sorry, I linked the wrong tweet up there. I wanted to post a Sean Trende tweet that's now in the original post.

Also, LOL. REUTERS NEEDS TO APOLOGIZE CAUSE THEIR POLL DOESN'T SHOW A BLUE WAVE

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/AndrewHClark/status/998948301117493248

Agree with Sean here. Political environment pretty clearly shifting towards Republicans. No, R+6 is not realistic. But could easily see a tied generic ballot in which the Democrats only pick up a few open seats and don't beat an incumbent.

Andrew Clark, worked for Romney and the NRCC. Of course he's creaming over this poll. I want Reuters to release a statement and explain why they screwed up their methodology.

Or it could be an outlier; they happen even with excellent methodolgy.  Let's see what subsequent surveys show.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Anyways, "Sean T at RCP" is on it:

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/999008718426689537

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Annie Kuster wouldn’t lose even in a R+6 environment (which will obviously never happen).

Actually, 2014 was an R+6 environment (but Annie Kuster survived it).

Yeah, I meant this year. But yeah, “rising star” Marilinda Garcia was supposed to give Kuster a run for her money in 2014 and ended up losing by 10 points in a R+6 year, lol. Kuster is beyond safe, even in a GOP wave year.

She only won by 3 in 2016 (D+2 national environment) against some random dude

2016 was an R+1 national environment, not a D+2 national environment.