2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Doimper]

Half of Kansas' House delegation being Democratic in 2019 would be interesting.

Thompson is running again in KS-04, so there's probably even a universe where we get three out of four Kansas seats in November. Not that that's likely to happen, of course.

[Sestak]

A PPP poll for PCCC in KS-03:

Brent Welder (D) 49%
Kevin Yoder (R-i) 42%

YO!

Half of Kansas' House delegation being Democratic in 2019 would be interesting.

Wait what would the other one be?

[Holmes]

Paul Davis in KS-02.

[Sestak]

Paul Davis in KS-02.

I'm assuming both races still Lean R, right?

[morgieb]

A PPP poll for PCCC in KS-03:

Brent Welder (D) 49%
Kevin Yoder (R-i) 42%

Given this is a named opponent rather than Generic D as well....ouch.

[LimoLiberal]

A PPP poll for PCCC in KS-03:

Brent Welder (D) 49%
Kevin Yoder (R-i) 42%

I would love to see the ordering of the questions there. Looks suspicious to me.

[BundouYMB]

A PPP poll for PCCC in KS-03:

Brent Welder (D) 49%
Kevin Yoder (R-i) 42%

YO!

Half of Kansas' House delegation being Democratic in 2019 would be interesting.

Wait what would the other one be?

KS-02. PPP released a poll last week with Davis leading a generic Republican so that's another overwhelmingly likely pickup.

At this point the question is if we can pick up KS-04 as well.

[The Other Castro]

Paul Davis in KS-02.

I'm assuming both races still Lean R, right?

Both are probably Tossups at this point.

[Ebsy]

I mean we held 1/2 of Kansas' congressional seats from 2007-2009 so this is not exactly unprecedented. Now, if Thompson won against Estes and we held 3/4, that would be really something.

[Kodak]

The last time there were three Democratic Kansans in the House, for comparison, was 1958.

The last time they won an outright majority of Kansas's seats was 1914.

[Truvinny]

Strong position for Love. No blue wave in Utah.

I wonder if the UUP could be a spoiler in any races. If I had to guess, they're running a full slate of candidates statewide.

[YE]

Bernie's son - Levi Sanders- is considering running for NH-01. Really liked the guy when he was interviewed by TYT last year.

[Gass3268]

Marist Poll:

46% Democrat (-3)
39% Republican (+1)
6% Neither (+1)
10% Undecided (+2)

Source

Still better than January for Democrats.

[Gustaf]

Little tidbit, not the most solid data but I haven't seen anyone do this (if someone did I'd be interested in seeing it) but there is a pretty solid positive correlation for last year's special elections (0.46) between Clinton doing worse than Obama and there being a swing to Democrats compared to the Clinton numbers. Which of course isn't necessarily surprising, but it suggests that places where we already saw Clinton doing well (think GA-06) are going to swing less to Democrats than places where Clinton lost a lot of support compared to Obama.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Dem advantage in RCP average is now up to +8.6

[LimoLiberal]

Marist Poll:

46% Democrat (-3)
39% Republican (+1)
6% Neither (+1)
10% Undecided (+2)

Source

Still better than January for Democrats.

Democrats slipping again. Oh well.

[Gass3268]

Marist Poll:

46% Democrat (-3)
39% Republican (+1)
6% Neither (+1)
10% Undecided (+2)

Source

Still better than January for Democrats.

Democrats slipping again. Oh well.

Still in a dominate position.

[LimoLiberal]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

No dude. Today I went to English class, did a timed writing about Catcher in the Rye, and then AP GOV, where we learned about party primaries (I already know a lot). Now I have a little free time. I'm going to continue countering your bullsh**t with my actual life until you stop with the RRH stuff.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

Can you explain the limo = andrew from rrh thing? (also what is rrh)

[Doimper]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

Can you explain the limo = andrew from rrh thing? (also what is rrh)

RRH stands for Real Rowdy Hacks. It's a political prognostication fetish site, where LimoLiberal also posts lurid fantasies about Democratic midterm losses (to the great pleasure of the more masochistically-minded posters there).

[LimoLiberal]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

Can you explain the limo = andrew from rrh thing? (also what is rrh)

I can explain it. PNM thinks that I am secretly this user "Andrew" on RRH, and constantly mentions it, especially when I post something that contradicts the blue wave narrative. I have never used RRH, do not use RRH, don't really have the time to use more than one political forum, and am sick of it.

RRH is like the conservative daily kos I think. But I don't know what the letters RRH stand for.

[KingSweden]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

Can you explain the limo = andrew from rrh thing? (also what is rrh)

I can explain it. PNM thinks that I am secretly this user "Andrew" on RRH, and constantly mentions it, especially when I post something that contradicts the blue wave narrative. I have never used RRH, do not use RRH, don't really have the time to use more than one political forum, and am sick of it.

RRH is like the conservative daily kos I think. But I don't know what the letters RRH stand for.

“Red Racing Horses.” It was the conservative spin-off when Kos absorbed Swing State Project back in the early 2010s. Hence why most DKE users are cool while main page DK posters are unhinged maniacs

[Devout Centrist]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

No dude. Today I went to English class, did a timed writing about Catcher in the Rye, and then AP GOV, where we learned about party primaries (I already know a lot). Now I have a little free time. I'm going to continue countering your bullsh**t with my actual life until you stop with the RRH stuff.

...

[LimoLiberal]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

No dude. Today I went to English class, did a timed writing about Catcher in the Rye, and then AP GOV, where we learned about party primaries (I already know a lot). Now I have a little free time. I'm going to continue countering your bullsh**t with my actual life until you stop with the RRH stuff.

...

Lol I spend hours on political forums and websites. That doesn't make me an expert by any means. But the AP GOV class, designed for teenagers with little to no political knowledge, is obviously easier for me. Not me bragging, just you being a jerk.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

No dude. Today I went to English class, did a timed writing about Catcher in the Rye, and then AP GOV, where we learned about party primaries (I already know a lot). Now I have a little free time. I'm going to continue countering your bullsh**t with my actual life until you stop with the RRH stuff.

...

Lol I spend hours on political forums and websites. That doesn't make me an expert by any means. But the AP GOV class, designed for teenagers with little to no political knowledge, is obviously easier for me. Not me bragging, just you being a jerk.

Perhaps pay attention more when they go over voting theory and rationality then, since your Governor Gillespie and Senator Moore +27 predictions were so wonderfully indicative of your political knowledge.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CdLqerS0A6M