KY, MS etc. Results Thread

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

A write in candate in Virginia is beating the democrat

Is that the district where the Republican had no choice but to run as a write-in?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Personally love spending election nights with you fine folks, especially knowing that there will be numbers to pour over, counties to analyze, trends to anticipate, etc. tomorrow morning.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The fact that Western KY has some blue counties should really worry Team Bevin.

Definitely.  Bevin swallowed up most of these counties (at first glance anyway) between 2011 and 2015.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I get the sense Kentuckyans may not like this Bevin guy.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

French Republican and Election Guy and Icespear were so sure Bevin was gonna win

Gotta admit, I was too  

(So was I)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It's been half an hour. Why no results for Mississippi yet?

The guy carrying the votes to Jackson got eaten by an alligator.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

One potentially interesting result to wait on in eastern Kentucky: Rowan County is the only eastern Kentucky county not reporting anything yet. It was by far Clinton's best county in eastern Kentucky in 2016; she held on to 37% of the vote there. But it's not typically especially Democratic, voting for Conway only narrowly over Bevin, 49-46, in 2015.

Edit: It's also the home of the infamous Kim Davis.

I asked about this before, and given what we are seeing now, Beshear will definitely win Rowan.

I'm sure he wins Rowan; it's more of a question of whether it will continue its 2016 pattern of being the strongest Dem county in eastern Kentucky or will it fall back in line with historical patterns. I'm not sure at all why Clinton did so much better (/less badly) there than elsewhere in eastern Kentucky.

Edit: And it's in, Beshear wins 58% so less than Elliott but still solidly Democratic.

Rowan's a college county, right?

I don't think so.

Are you thinking of Rowan U? That not far from me here in Philly.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

NBC calls it for Beshear.

Talk about skin of your teeth.

Even closer than his 2015 race, if I am not mistaken. Of course, I wouldn't be surprised if some try to undermine the joy over Beshear's victory by emphasizing this. The fact that he managed to win at all, when most people didn't think he had a chance, and in a state that voted for Trump by 30%, is astounding.

The defense I'm hearing is "Kentucky always elects Democrat governors, relax!"

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Simonds just flipped VA-HD 94 over Yancey.  You might remember this as the infamous "drawing lots" seat from 2017.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

We predicted that it would be Bevin 51%, Beshear 47%, Libertarian 2%. But also said that there was the possibility that it'd be a <1% win for Beshear.

"It could be [X], but it could also be [Y].  [X] happened, so the prediction was correct."  

Few pundits were anticipating either a blowout for either Bevin or Beshear, so I don't see what you're bragging about here. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Trump is a weak Prez and this race proved it and Leader McConnell is going down next yr

Democrats had these kind of results a year before the McGovern and Mondale debacles.

True! But Trump is no Richard Nixon (at least with regards to "being presidential") and he's certainly no Ronald Reagan. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I don't know what they are smoking in RNC but I definitely want some of that sh**t.

https://twitter.com/GOPChairwoman/status/1191940191092654081

"Reeves was down double-digits..."

The rally was on November 1st.  



Starting to think that Ronna might be lying here. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Some comments on articles surrounding last night's election in Kentucky:

"Was Beshear the Democrat or Republican?"

"We (presumed Democratic poster) just took control of Kentucky's government for the first time in twenty years!!"

"Relax, Dems.  The governor of Kentucky is always a Democrat.  This was expected".

I get it.  Most folks aren't as full-bore into political science as we are here.
But still:  (exploding noise)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Overall I would say last night was probably on balance the best night the GOP has had since 2016, basically no net losses in state legislative seats and gains in statewide offices.

Going from south to north, in Mississippi the Republicans won every statewide office, including flipping the Attorney General’s position meaning that there are no elected dems statewide. They also picked up 4 seats in the senate meaning they now have a 36-16 majority, which is 2/3 now although that is largely a symbolic fact, it doesn’t mean much.

Moving north in Kentucky, Republicans outside of the Governors race won all the state races, flipping Secretary of State and attorney general and they improved their average margin in the statewide races by 4% vs 2015.

In Virginia the Clinton margin alone would have given the dems 23 seats in the senate and 56 in the house but somewhat surprisingly in many areas republicans ran ahead of trump in 2016 which is a very good sign going forward, dems were only able to pick up 2 senate seats with republicans running 1.5% ahead of trump in the senate although the dems did gain 6 seats in the house going to 55 basically matching Clinton’s 2016 performance.

In New Jersey the Republicans flipped a senate seat although that was always a given as it was in a Trumpy area, they gained at least 2 seats in the state assembly and might gain 2 more.

In sum outside of Bevins catastrophically bad performance which I’m sure the media will focus on the GOP did pretty well running slightly behind, even or ahead of 2016 numbers which was a fairly good election for the GOP.

This is a molten lava level hot take

It really isn’t

You can’t extrapolate the KY gubernatorial result. You just can’t. Bevin losing but all other repubs romping tells you nothing about trump/GOP, but a lot about Bevin.

I know this board is full of democrats who want to take everything as a sign that trump is on his way to a massive loss, but nothing that happened yesterday is a sign of anything.

Please explain to me how bevin’s loss is a sign for 2020.

I'd agree with that take on Kentucky, but if there's one thing that has to worry the GOP just a bit on Pennsylvania, it's that it seems as though there isn't a swing back to the Republicans happening in historically red affluent suburbs (especially in Delaware and Chester counties).  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

We predicted that it would be Bevin 51%, Beshear 47%, Libertarian 2%. But also said that there was the possibility that it'd be a <1% win for Beshear.

"It could be [X], but it could also be [Y].  [X] happened, so the prediction was correct."  

Few pundits were anticipating either a blowout for either Bevin or Beshear, so I don't see what you're bragging about here.  

A very narrow result, with the Libertarian share of the vote precise to the decimal points.

But you made, in essence, two opposing predictions at the same time -- one had Beshear losing, the other had him winning.  How is that impressive?

Really not trying to give you a hard time here, Nukes. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Don't forget Austria has an odd curiosity about Kentucky because it's shaped like a mutant Austria.

It's shaped like KY or VA, but KY is a better comparison.

Or ID, if you move the map by 90° ...

That's far too much work though.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Has Bevin provided any substantial evidence for the irregularities he's claiming? This looks like a sore loser who can't accept defeat and puts his own ego over the voters decision. Smells like NC-gov 2016. Dude should concede, ensure a smooth transition and move on.

Nothing beyond something about illegal absentee ballots or something like that.