Ontario Election 2022

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Add another one from Mainstreet.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1483935643147321351?cxt=HHwWjoCy9d3m_...

It's looking like the election will come down pretty much entirely to vote splitting.

On the left the battle seems to be between between the OLP's credibility as a traditional governing party despite perceived corruption, incompetence and a lack of grassroots support or fundraising and the NDP's actual status as the opposition despite Horwath failing to even come close when conditions were much more favourable last time. Of course the OLP doesn't exactly have strong leadership either, and the end result of this stoppable force meeting a movable object is a statistical tie, the only scenario that could give Ford a second term with less than 35% of the vote.

But Doug Ford has splitting of his own to worry about this time, with no less than three new parties to his flank: the New Blue Party, the Ontario Party and the Ontario First Party. Of the three theoretically the OFP has the biggest base of support since it's led by Randy Hillier, probably the most famous of the expelled PC MPPs, and is officially supported by Maxime Bernier and the PPC. But it isn't officially registered yet so it's the farthest from actually running candidates.

The OP is Derek Sloan's latest attempt to get back into Parliament. Fat chance. But they actually managed to pick up Chatham-Leamington MPP Rick Nicholls, which could make the riding interesting since he's probably the most locally popular of the expelled MPPs and C-L was one of the best ridings for the PPC at almost 15%.

NBP is run by political activist Jim Karahelios and his MPP wife Belinda. They've been around the longest (well, technically the OP has been around longer but it was hijacked by Sloan more recently) and probably have the most EDAs but also the least notable candidates.

If they worked together they might even do well but instead it looks like they'll pull a BC Conservatives and collapse due to discoordination and infighting. But if they did coordinate, or if one of them rose above the rest and was able to get candidates in most of the province, then Doug Ford would have a big problem. He's lucky COVID (probably) won't be the #1 issue when the election rolls around, and my guess is that he's going to make a big deal of declaring Mission Accomplished and ending restrictions before then to defuse the anti-lockdown energy on his flank.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

On the left the battle seems to be between between the OLP's credibility as a traditional governing party despite perceived corruption, incompetence and a lack of grassroots support or fundraising and the NDP's actual status as the opposition despite Horwath failing to even come close when conditions were much more favourable last time. Of course the OLP doesn't exactly have strong leadership either, and the end result of this stoppable force meeting a movable object is a statistical tie, the only scenario that could give Ford a second term with less than 35% of the vote.

Considering how Horwath got 33.59% vs Ford's 40.50% and earned 40 seats (the most for *any* official opposition party in modern times, save the '85 dead-heat), "failing to even come close" is a bit of an overstatement, particularly for a hitherto perennial-3rd party (save fleeting intervals in 43/45/75/87/90) with the lingering stigma of the Rae years and without big corporate donors or a galvanized MSM machine behind it.  However, the ONDP *still* doesn't have big corporate donors or a galvanized MSM machine behind it (all of that is still hardwired t/w the Libs); plus, Doug Ford's gaslighting tendencies haven't given the ONDP the official opposition profile or oxygen necessary--thus the various signals that Team Horwath might be reverting to 3rd-party form.  (And as for the Libs, the perceived corruption/incompetence as anything terminally fatal was basically a hyped-up '18 thing.  But they still have the infrastructure of their federal siblings as backup, in case their present lack of official party status is crippling in and of itself.)

In fact, the way she's positioned, I'd argue that Horwath is at least as much of a to-be-watched sleeper factor in '22 as she was in '18--and she's always been more broadly "attractive" and "popular" among the electorate than naysayers (who almost invariably tend to be male) would have it.  But again: her party's always had that "infrastructure problem".  (I remember, surprisingly close to e-day, venturing into ridings like Scarborough Centre where the NDP finished a very competitive 2nd, and seeing nothing but Liberal and PC signage on the main streets as if the old status quo still held.)

In 2018 the stars were basically aligned for Horwath to win: the credible left of center alternative was in total disarray and the Tories nominated the world famous crack smoking mayor's brother, Canadian Trump. This time around she has to convince voters that she's a more credible alternative than the party that's actually been in government for most of the past several decades.

To be fair, I don't think it's necessarily just an issue of leadership, and there are basically no ONDP members I can think of that would do any better. Maybe Natyshak, but he's retiring because going by the Federal results he'd have an uphill battle just holding on. The real problem is that the NDP's brand is toxic in the Toronto suburbs that traditionally determine the Premiership while the dominance of the downtown Toronto base reduces their support in rural Eastern and Southern ridings they used to be able to compete in.

So if the NDP isn't competitive in the now safe Tory ridings that gave Bob Rae his premiership and it isn't competitive in the suburban ridings the PCs and Liberals always prioritize then they don't have a path to the Premiership based on their own capabilities. She's basically counting on significant right wing defection or abstention and Del Duca falling flat. If she makes it a 2 horse race again but Ford's base sticks with him then she'll lose just like 2018 and if Del Duca keeps it competitive then Ford could win a majority even with a far smaller percentage of the vote, as low as 33% in an NDP-LPC dead heat.

Also, the "Horwath didn't win because misogyny" seems pretty silly in a world where Wynne won. Her problem isn't misogyny, it's that her party is bound by stereotypes and she's too afraid of her own base to break them. She was practically forced into a struggle session for being insufficiently enthusiastic about vaccine mandates.

Its not even like there isn't any precedent, Notley running in a province with a far stronger anti-NDP bias managed to win once and right now is easily to the favourite to win next time too. Somehow she's able to navigate between being viewed credibly by the electorate and winning the support of the base by picking her battles despite "misogyny".

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Voted earlier today. My polling station was a ghost town so it was quick. Not even going to try to make a prediction since weird vote splits could produce any number of outcomes but of course it doesn't look like Ford will lose.

The Liberals have been absolutely obnoxious with their "we're the Only Choice to defeat Doug Ford!" shtick, despite having done nothing to demonstrate why they should be treated as the default opposition. Del Duca's platform is like a bingo card of Liberal boutique issues that don't actually motivate anyone, plus a few planks that if anything exclusively motivate his opponents. It would be extremely satisfying if the Liberals came third at least in seats if not in the PV so the hacks that treat "strategic voting" as "always vote Liberal" can get a pie in the face.

Horwath is a weak leader yet she's still probably better than any of the likely replacements. I think her political instincts aren't bad and she's avoided stepping on any landmines but winning the Premiership isn't just a matter of not screwing up, especially considering the NDP's reputation. With Ford as the incumbent and both the media and public perception treating the Liberals as the "real opposition" she needed to leverage her role as Official Opposition Leader to shape the narrative instead of chasing the ones created by the other two parties. A Notley-esque moderate left populist campaign where she hammers Ford over and over on healthcare, hydro, grocery bills (granted she's put these issues in the platform but she's hardly emphasized them as the core of the campaign) while avoiding the stereotypical NDP cultural issues like the plague could have given her a shot at winning otherwise uncompetitive key seats in the North and Southwest. Even if she lost, by clearly differentiating from the Liberals and competing in ridings they can't win anyway she'd reduce the vote inefficiency and have a clearer shot at least a minority government. Instead she basically let Del Duca take full control of the narrative only to crash and burn anyway and she might somehow let Doug Ford come out of this election with more seats.

Schreiner has done a good job but with the lack of infrastructure the Greens are really only competitive in a half dozen ridings on their best day. If the NDP and Liberals keep face planting the Greens might be a serious contender in a few more elections.

Finally, New Blue picked a stupid name and then inexplicably picked yellow as their official colour (so what, yellow is the New Blue?) whereas the Ontario Party's platform is downright theocratic and Derek Sloan is a tool. The latter actually had a surprisingly strong candidate in my home riding but I ended up throwing away my vote for New Blue instead. My best guess is that "right wing Other" gets a bit under 5% in the end.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Everyone is talking about Windsor-Tecumseh but nobody mentioned how close Windsor West was. The margin was just 42-35 for the NDP, and if TOP and NBP had gone for Ford then it would have been one of the closest races in the province, coming down to just a few dozen votes breaking a 42-42 tie. Windsor West is a traditional urban NDP stronghold so the rapid growth of the Tories (and parties right of the Tories) there is a very bad sign for the NDP's prospects both provincially and federally.

Speaking of "parties right of the Tories", I thought they'd get just under 5% and together TOP and NBP won 4.5%. Had they merged they'd have done almost as well as the Greens in the popular vote and would have at least been competitive in the half dozen or so seats where one or the other was over double digits. There's clearly space for a provincial party to the right of the PCs particularly in the Southwest but it probably won't be led by Derek Sloan or the guy who named his party "New Blue" and then made its official colour yellow.

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An underrated factor in Ford's easy win was NBP and TOP stepping on each other's toes instead of presenting a united front. Even naively adding their vote totals together would have given them double digits in several ridings and they would have at least had an argument to get into the debates and present a somewhat viable alternative to the right of Ford. If they had any expectations at all then he might have had a hard time balancing his positions but as it was he could just ignore them as they wasted resources competing against each other in (almost) every riding instead of prioritizing the handful of candidates that actually had some support.