Australia 2022 Election

[jaichind]

I think people are in denial about just how big a win the ALP is set to have. Polls are now averaging an 8 point lead in two party preferred. That is a landslide for Australia. I know people feel burned by what happened in 2019 but it reminds of how after the polling error in 1992 people in the UK still kept insisting that the Tories could still win in 1997 even when every poll gave Labour a double digit lead.

But I thought that Morrison is still polling ahead of Albanese for preferred PM.  Would that not indicate the election is likely to be closer than 2 party preferred might indicate?

[jaichind]

I think people are in denial about just how big a win the ALP is set to have. Polls are now averaging an 8 point lead in two party preferred. That is a landslide for Australia. I know people feel burned by what happened in 2019 but it reminds of how after the polling error in 1992 people in the UK still kept insisting that the Tories could still win in 1997 even when every poll gave Labour a double digit lead.

But I thought that Morrison is still polling ahead of Albanese for preferred PM.  Would that not indicate the election is likely to be closer than 2 party preferred might indicate?

The preferred PM polls have also narrowed a lot, and Albanese has been leading Morrison in some polls since early April. The last Ipsos poll has Albanese ahead of Morisson 41-36% for preferred PM.

https://theconversation.com/labor-seizes-large-lead-in-newspoll-and-ipsos-impact-of-how-to-vote-cards-is-exaggerated-182323

Says that the latest Newspoll still has Morisson ahead of Albanese 44-42 even as Lab is ahead 54-46 in 2 party vote.

[jaichind]

Yes, of course, nonetheless, they have narrowed considerably compared with, for example, the beginning of this year or late last year. Looking from the outside, and this coming from someone who has just an average knowledge of Australian politics, I think that voters are not impressed with neither Albanese or Morrison, but because the Liberals have been in power for almost 10 years, plus Morisson is no longer a "new thing" like he was in 2019, Labor are much more likely to win this time. Like the saying goes: "Oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them."

Totally agree.  My point is that given the preferred PM gap is a lot closer than the 2 party vote if the polls are going to be off they are going to off against the LAB.  Still, even in that case, I cannot see how LAB does not win the election only that it is not obvious that it will be a LAB landslide.