United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[CumbrianLefty]

Workers Party: George Galloway's latest vehicle, standing in about 150 constituencies (making it by far the largest left-of-the-Greens effort at this election). Founded back in 2019, it's broadly socialist, but with a socially conservative and green-sceptic tinge. Anti-EU, anti-NATO and very, very pro-Palestine. Not quite a one-man band, as Chris Williamson (the former Labour MP for Derby North who was thrown out of the party at the height of its anti-Semitism crisis) and Peter Ford (the ex-ambassador to Syria) are also involved

I have never heard of Peter Ford, at least not in this context. I have heard of Craig Murray, however.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Conservatives have very much suffered from a belief that during a campaign the polls will always narrow in their favour... it has basically been baked in that they would be able to get the lead down by pure virtue of being the Conservative Party.

This really is a party whose fundamental, core identity is rooted in a sense of entitlement. It would be beautiful to see it come back to bite them in the ass.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The Conservatives have very much suffered from a belief that during a campaign the polls will always narrow in their favour... it has basically been baked in that they would be able to get the lead down by pure virtue of being the Conservative Party.

One of the core problems the Conservative Party faces right now is that they do not believe that things like this could happen to people like them and are affronted by the concept.

[oldtimer]

The Conservatives have very much suffered from a belief that during a campaign the polls will always narrow in their favour... it has basically been baked in that they would be able to get the lead down by pure virtue of being the Conservative Party.

Most campaigns simply reinforce pre-campaign momentum.

[beesley]

At some point I intend to make a more detailed post on the topic in response to some comments here. But for now:

Sunak added visits in his home seat of Richmond and Northallerton, plus Bishop Auckland, Swindon North, Stroud, and Melksham and Devizes.

Starmer added a second visit to Finchley and Golders Green, visited his home seat of Holborn and St. Pancras, and also Thurrock today.

Davey visited Chippenham, Romsey and Southampton North (let's go!), Bicester and Woodstock, Newbury, and Wokingham.

No real surprises or obvious jolts in campaign strategy based on this.

Obviously the Lib Dems are the main reason for this, but the South is making up a big proportion of the three party leaders' visits.

As for the party leaders I haven't included it seems like I was right not to. Nigel Farage has mainly based himself in Clacton, John Swinney and Rhun ap Iorwerth can obviously tour all the seats in their nation (and Swinney has definitely been doing so at pace), and I assume the Green co-leaders in the seats they are trying to win and their other two targets.

[Blair]

Interesting re Sunak campaigning in his own seat... Starmer did an event in Camden but it is his only home & it was for a voluntary type thing (and you can see how it's easier to put a visit on a weekend and allow him to have family time after)

I wouldn't be shocked if Sunak is actually worrying about his own seat

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wonder if there'll be a constituency visited by all three leaders?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting re Sunak campaigning in his own seat... Starmer did an event in Camden but it is his only home & it was for a voluntary type thing (and you can see how it's easier to put a visit on a weekend and allow him to have family time after)

I wouldn't be shocked if Sunak is actually worrying about his own seat

And two that are actually or essentially neighbouring constituencies. Do we know where he claims he was in the Bishop Auckland constituency, because we have had no footage, no photos...

[JimJamUK]

Interesting re Sunak campaigning in his own seat... Starmer did an event in Camden but it is his only home & it was for a voluntary type thing (and you can see how it's easier to put a visit on a weekend and allow him to have family time after)

And it was mainly to get an endorsement off Deborah Meaden, probably the best known Dragon (British equivalent of Shark Tank) on business and green issues.

[Tintrlvr]

I wonder if there'll be a constituency visited by all three leaders?

Maybe Wimbledon if Labour decides to target it. Easy for Starmer to visit and has the other two already

[JimJamUK]

Do we know where he claims he was in the Bishop Auckland constituency, because we have had no footage, no photos...

I’m going to guess somewhere south of the Tees rather than Coundon…

Edit - Google has a picture of him at Auckland Castle, so further out than I would have guessed but still not exactly tramping round a council estate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do we know where he claims he was in the Bishop Auckland constituency, because we have had no footage, no photos...

I’m going to guess somewhere south of the Tees rather than Coundon…

Yeah, I have a very strong suspicion that this was 'campaigning' rather than campaigning.

[Talleyrand]

Why was Sunak in Caithness?

[The Mikado]

I do think if they made Cameron leader they could get back A LOT of the moderate Tories who are voting Labour. Enough to win? Surely not even close. But def keep it closer to bring the Tories below a Blairslide

Last minute substitutions of a party leader are just an incredibly stupid thing that makes your party look indecisive and disorganized.

Same people who'd think this is a good idea are probably the same people who think subbing Biden out at the last minute would somehow be a good idea. Once you have your candidate you have that candidate and veering away from that makes your party look amateurish and not ready for prime time.

[The Mikado]

The Conservatives have very much suffered from a belief that during a campaign the polls will always narrow in their favour... it has basically been baked in that they would be able to get the lead down by pure virtue of being the Conservative Party.

This really is a party whose fundamental, core identity is rooted in a sense of entitlement. It would be beautiful to see it come back to bite them in the ass.

Yup. Has been for over 300 years. It's in their DNA.

I suppose the most optimistic Tory take at this point would be that they're going to be cut down so thoroughly in number that in the 2029 or whatever election the vast majority of people standing as Conservative candidates will have no ties to the 2010-2024 Conservative governments. The usual cope of a party that got totally wiped out.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wonder if there'll be a constituency visited by all three leaders?

Maybe Wimbledon if Labour decides to target it. Easy for Starmer to visit and has the other two already

Sounds like a good guess. We'll see of course.

[Tintrlvr]

I do think if they made Cameron leader they could get back A LOT of the moderate Tories who are voting Labour. Enough to win? Surely not even close. But def keep it closer to bring the Tories below a Blairslide

Last minute substitutions of a party leader are just an incredibly stupid thing that makes your party look indecisive and disorganized.

Same people who'd think this is a good idea are probably the same people who think subbing Biden out at the last minute would somehow be a good idea. Once you have your candidate you have that candidate and veering away from that makes your party look amateurish and not ready for prime time.

I agree generally. Installing Cameron would be stupid and counterproductive. I could see installing a more right-wing leader as a save-the-furniture strategy to win back a few Reform voters (who are clearly already willing to vote for a disorganized mess of a party…) and try to guarantee OO with 75-100 seats but no potential to do better than that as a potential strategy but definitely very risky.

[RBH]

Why was Sunak in Caithness?

trying to prevent Ed Davey from launching a land invasion of Scotland from Orkney

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why was Sunak in Caithness?

trying to prevent Ed Davey from launching a land invasion of Scotland from Orkney

Still a better tactical choice than skipping out the full schedule at D-Day.

[Cassius]

Ironically, I think the only last-minute replacement who might stand a chance of saving any of the furniture (not very much of it, but maybe a couple of small chairs and a footstool) would be... Boris Johnson.

[The Mikado]

Ironically, I think the only last-minute replacement who might stand a chance of saving any of the furniture (not very much of it, but maybe a couple of small chairs and a footstool) would be... Boris Johnson.

So...bet people have forgotten why he was chased out to begin with? I guess that means "bet Brits have as short a memory as Americans do."

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The one advantage he has is the one that Corbyn had and has even in great social unpopularity: a fanbase parts of which have a cult-like devotion to him (to the complete mystery of everyone else). It is, however, now completely impossible as he is not a candidate in these elections.

[Torrain]

Why was Sunak in Caithness?

One of the stops on his four-nations tour of the UK in the first 48 hours of the campaign. Wales gave us the Euros gaffe, and Northern Ireland the Titanic gaffe. So, unusually for Tory PMs, Scotland was the one devolved nation where he didn't make a tit of himself.

[JimJamUK]

It continues to be a great mystery what the Conservative Party inner circle see in Conservative Pary chair Richard Holden given he has pissed off a lot of candidates with his last minute parachute candidacy in Basildon while still being terrible at representing the party in the media. He just seems utterly surplus to requirements.


https://twitter.com/sophyridgesky/status/1799867754629189837?s=61&t=I1DE8_cg...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I really do recommend that everyone reading this thread watches the above video. It is very short and... highly memorable.