Japan 2024: Tokyo Governor election with possible snap election

[jaichind]

Election posters  in designated areas including those from Koike and Rengo are coming up.

[jaichind]

It seems the number of PNHK or candidates linked to PNHK is 24.  The reason seems to be so they can sell off the slots they are assigned in election poster areas to anyone that would want to pay to have their poster to be shown instead.

[jaichind]

In the official election pamphlets for the Tokyo Governor  



There is a separate writeup from 立花 孝志(Tachibana Takashi) for each PNHK candidate endorsing the said candidate

There is not much the election commission can do about what PNHK is doing since in theory all their moves are legal under Japan election law.

[jaichind]

There are rumors that early polling in the Tokyo governor election race shows that Far Right candidate 田母神 俊雄( Tamogami Toshio) (he ran in 2014) and 石丸伸二 (Ishimaru Shinji) who is the current mayor of 安芸高田市(Akitakata City) in Hiroshima are well into the double-digit level of support and eating into the LDP-KP and JRP vote that would otherwise go to Koike.  As a result, Koike is now neck-to-neck with Renho.

We will see if these rumors are correct.

[Logical]

It seems the number of PNHK or candidates linked to PNHK is 24.  The reason seems to be so they can sell off the slots they are assigned in election poster areas to anyone that would want to pay to have their poster to be shown instead.

I have been wondering how on earth did the anti NHK jokers coughed up 3*24 million yen ($450k USD!) in election deposit. This explains a lot.

[GM Team Member and Acting PPT WB]

It seems the number of PNHK or candidates linked to PNHK is 24.  The reason seems to be so they can sell off the slots they are assigned in election poster areas to anyone that would want to pay to have their poster to be shown instead.

Is it safe at this point to call PNHK a fraudulent operation?

[jaichind]

The first wave of polls for Tokyo Governor has Koike well ahead.  Looks like rumors of the race being neck-to-neck are not true.

[jaichind]

Latest Kyodo poll

https://nordot.app/1177527037309665713?c=39550187727945729

Has Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval at 22.2/62.4



When asked how long they would like Prime Minister Kishida Fumio to remain in office, 10.4% said they wanted him to be re-elected and continue in office in the LDP Prez election in September.
36.6% said "I want Kishida to quit ASAP"

[jaichind]

My current guess for the Tokyo governor race

Koike               38  LDP-KP-DPP
Renho              28  CDP-SDP-JCP
Ishimaru          12  石丸伸二 (Ishimaru Shinji) mayor of 安芸高田市(Akitakata City)
Tamogami          9  田母神 俊雄 (Tamogami Toshio) - far right - ran in 2014 and got 12.6%
Shimizu             6  清水国明(Shimizu Kuniaki) - media personality
Sakurai              3  JFP 桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) - far right ran in 2020 and got 2.9%

The rest are not serious candidates

I would think the CPJ would back 田母神 俊雄( Tamogami Toshio) but they seem to have backed Koike to stop "Communist" Renho.  I think the far-right vote and disaffected youth vote would still drift toward 田母神 俊雄 (Tamogami Toshio) and 桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) despite what CPJ says.

[jaichind]

Is it safe at this point to call PNHK a fraudulent operation?

They were never that serious but were always a gimmick party to pull in anti-system votes.  This move puts them in the news mostly likely helps them in their battle with DIY for the anti-system vote.  I have not heard from DIY for a while now.  I thought DIY was going to finish off PNHK back in the 2022 Upper House election but PNHK survived.  It seems DIY will now face a PNHK that is in the news to pull in anti-system votes as well as CPJ pulling in the far-right vote.

[jaichind]

Back in 2020, Koike won 36% of the CDP vote and 18% of the JCP vote.  That will not repeat itself which means that Koike will not cross the 50% vote share threshold.

[jaichind]

It seems some that bought election poster space from PNHK just wanted to show fun pictures.


Some other posters with the ads in the space from PNHK slots make it look like the periodic table

 

[jaichind]

Latest PR averages




Change from 1 week ago

A reversion to the mean between LDP and CDP

LDP     24.9 (+0.9)
KP        4.7 (-0.4)
DIY       1.4(---)
PNHK    0.6 (-0.1)
JRP      10.8 (+0.2)
ARFE     0.7 (+0.2)   
DPP      3.4  (-0.1)
CDP    17.2 (-0.9)
RS        4.9 (+0.2)
SDP      0.9 (-0.1)
JCP       5.4 (-0.1)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My current guess for the Tokyo governor race

Koike               38  LDP-KP-DPP
Renho              28  CDP-SDP-JCP
Ishimaru          12  石丸伸二 (Ishimaru Shinji) mayor of 安芸高田市(Akitakata City)
Tamogami          9  田母神 俊雄 (Tamogami Toshio) - far right - ran in 2014 and got 12.6%
Shimizu             6  清水国明(Shimizu Kuniaki) - media personality
Sakurai              3  JFP 桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) - far right ran in 2020 and got 2.9%

The rest are not serious candidates

I would think the CPJ would back 田母神 俊雄( Tamogami Toshio) but they seem to have backed Koike to stop "Communist" Renho.  I think the far-right vote and disaffected youth vote would still drift toward 田母神 俊雄 (Tamogami Toshio) and 桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) despite what CPJ says.

How would you describe Shimizu Kuniaki, politically?

[jaichind]

My current guess for the Tokyo governor race

Koike               38  LDP-KP-DPP
Renho              28  CDP-SDP-JCP
Ishimaru          12  石丸伸二 (Ishimaru Shinji) mayor of 安芸高田市(Akitakata City)
Tamogami          9  田母神 俊雄 (Tamogami Toshio) - far right - ran in 2014 and got 12.6%
Shimizu             6  清水国明(Shimizu Kuniaki) - media personality
Sakurai              3  JFP 桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) - far right ran in 2020 and got 2.9%

The rest are not serious candidates

I would think the CPJ would back 田母神 俊雄( Tamogami Toshio) but they seem to have backed Koike to stop "Communist" Renho.  I think the far-right vote and disaffected youth vote would still drift toward 田母神 俊雄 (Tamogami Toshio) and 桜井 誠(Sakurai Makoto) despite what CPJ says.

How would you describe Shimizu Kuniaki, politically?

I think he is more left of center but I am not sure.  He is running mostly on disaster prevention. 

[GM Team Member and Acting PPT WB]

Why so serious, Tokyo?
https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1805624924201271769

[jaichind]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/yen-s-tumble-to-weakest-since-1986-boosts-risk-of-intervention/ar-BB1oV1Eo

"Yen’s Tumble to Weakest Since 1986 Boosts Risk of Intervention"

If you look at the JPM CPI-adjusted currency index the JPY is now about half the value as was in the 2009-2012 period once you take CPI differentials into account. 

All this is because of years of QE and endless fiscal stimulus which now created a debt bomb that forces JPY downward if the rest of the world maintains a sane level of interest rates.

I wonder where Paul Krugman is now on this situation since he applauded this absurd endless QE and fiscal stimulus policy 12 years ago.

[jaichind]

Why so serious, Tokyo?
https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1805624924201271769

And who can forget 外山 恒一(Toyama Kōichi) in the 2007 Tokyo Governor election

[Dr. Cynic]

Real shame that Koike is most likely going to continue to hang on to the Tokyo Governorship. I assume Renho will be a candidate in the next Lower House election and pretty likely to get a seat, so she'll end up alright. Even still, will be a bit of a blow to the morale that the center-left have built up if this is the case.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/b56f665c211a6a3bd3c1f3828087c554b4491e9b

It seems Kono told his faction leader Aso of his desire to run for LDP Prez in the Sept leadership race.

if this is true then most likely Ishiba and Koizumi Junior will not run given the three of them are in an alliance.  Kono's brand is damaged from the 2021 LDP leadership race but on the other hand, Abe is not around to organize a stop-Kono effort.

[jaichind]

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/06/b7a21225e8a9-us-marine-in-okinawa-arrested-over-female-injured-in-attempted-rape.html

"U.S. Marine in Okinawa arrested over female injured in attempted rape"

This took place two weeks too late for the Okinawa anti base bloc.