United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

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Fwiw i was actually polled when sunak was chancellor and i distinctly remember not rating him as badly as the other tories (I can't remember if it was positive) merely because I was relieved to be on a furlough benefit.

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It was the Lib Dems that did well during the 1997 campaign itself, which could potentially be good news for Ed Davey (especially if any more shock polls come out where leader of opposition could be a contested position).

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It was the Lib Dems that did well during the 1997 campaign itself, which could potentially be good news for Ed Davey (especially if any more shock polls come out where leader of opposition could be a contested position).

Not the case in 2015, 2017 or 2019 though, and Davey does not strike me as somebody about to inspire a wave of enthusiasm (the previous Lib Dem campaign surges largely involved getting people who’d voted for them at the last election to return, along with positive attention given to the party during the campaign).

Yes, Davey is a drag (really any coalition experience is a minus not a plus) and they would be in a better position installing moran as leader, who i think would play well on stage. What i am thinking is an election campaign where Tories are clearly losing the plot (senior figures already capitulating and playing leadership races during the campaign) and it looks like Labour is going to completely break fptp and win everything, the Lib Dems might be in a good position to "keep the bastards honest". (We stand for good vibes is never a bad campaign for them, just one they haven't been able to play after the coalition or during the brexit years)

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That required the fixing up of the election for him by Graham Brady, after that fiasco it's obvious they can't do that again.

They will have to do a proper leadership election, so it's July or retirement for the likes of Badenoch, Mordaunt, Gove, Hunt ect.

Wait - you think that, as their desperation deepens, the Tories are going to pay *more* attention to the rules rather than less? If they're in enough trouble that they end up triggering a coup against their third leader in three years, civility is going to be the last thing on their minds.

It's either a repeat of Oct 2022, or four hours in a smoke-filled-room. The chances of them doing a Sunak vs Truss contest, where they spend months navel-gazing and touring the country for hustings are less than zero.

I suppose he's saying that the party is too fractured to even form a smoke filled room to install Moudaunt or Gove or someone without literally causing a party split and going full Liberal Civil War in the election.

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Warning fanfic incoming:

Unlikely election scenario: tories wiped out in the may local, street and houchen defeated etc. Sunak is blamed and suffers a VONC. The conservative factions have a stitch-up to ensure Moudaunt is PM, with Badenoch, Braverman and Jenrick all rewarded enough to ensure the right are calling shots (Liz Truss is not given a place with the other wingnuts, obviously). The ultimate hail mary is that Reform is also rewarded in this, because Tories have come to fear them and believe that at least they could defang them - Tice and Farage are both given peerages and act as surrogates . This does kill Reform, but apparently is too toxic for some Tory voters, leading to a mini Lib Dems bounce. Moudaunt and her new cabinet immediately call for a summer election, as it's not likely they can do anything else.

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Reports from Tory HQ suggests that the official 20:80 campaign is now being changed to 20:200, with every tory seat with less than 15,000 majority being marked as vulnerable and being given extra party support (and some seats with a higher majority - they mention Weston-Super-Mare in particular).

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I wonder how long they maintain the delusion of the '20' part. Perhaps it quietly transforms into 'list of seats lost at by-elections in this Parliament', plus Leicester East (sigh).

I think it's the SNP held marginals; and they hope that the Nats will just fail even harder than they are.

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Can’t wait for it to be another pointless “game-changer” reshuffle bringing back Lord Clarke as Secretary of State for Health.

paula vennels given a peerage and cabinet position

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There’s a non-zero chance the cabinet/parliamentary party revolts to such a degree at this plan that Sunak ends up resigning/being deposed.

Not saying it’s likely, but it’s more plausible now than it was this morning. Sunak has really alienated a lot of people.

Can the tory party even elect a leader once parliament is dissolved?

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Things Can Only Get Wetter

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One possible reason (amongst others) for going now and for the sudden announcement (let’s not call it snap) is to avoid giving Reform time to get a proper campaign together and candidates in place across the country. Won’t change the end result, but a more hastily organised Reform effort might help save the furniture in some places.

Yes, and they have suffered a small decline in the polls recently. I imagine the aim is to avoid the existential threat represented by strong Reform results.

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Yvonne Fovargue (Lab, Makerfield) standing down. Reports that her neighbouring MP James Grundy (Con, Leigh) will also announce his retirement

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Worth keeping an eye, perhaps, on the constituencies being visited by the leaders.

So far today, I make it that Sunak has visited the Vale of Glamorgan (2.7% swing needed for Labour) and somewhere in Derbyshire (didn't catch where, if it was only a single constituency). Starmer has been to Gillingham and Rainham (16.5% swing needed for Labour).

Seems Sunak is weirdly confident.

He kind of has to, otherwise he may as well say: "I'm going to lose". We will see him in all the "marginals" from last election because the tory party needs to at least pretend to be running a campaign for government.

If Joe Biden was down 15 points he would probably still do the standard trips to Michigan and pennsylvania, even if in practice he might lose washington and massachusetts.

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As we get later in the campaign, though, don't just watch party leaders, watch other senior figures, especially from the party on the up. A very obvious 'uh oh' moment at the last GE was Michael Gove turning up in Chesterfield one day. That one they missed out on, but it was indicative.

It might be interesting to see if people like Shapps, Mordaunt and Hunt visit home once or twice.

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Techne comes up with their first election poll, fieldwork done wednesday thursday:

LAB: 45% (+1)
CON: 19% (-2)
RFM: 14% (+2)
LDM: 12% (=)
GRN: 5% (-1)

... Guys i've got to stay off the hopium

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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13455921/Manchester-bombing-Martyns-law-Figen-Murrey-election-Sunak.html

I understand the unfortunate timing that this woman arrived on her trek literally the day the election was announced, but not a great look for sunak to lie to her face.

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Talking of northern ireland, it's going to be marching season during the election campaign - maybe sunak is over to preemptively sooth things?

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It's 79 now, with the addition of Gove:

"A total of 78 Tories are stepping down — higher than the exodus of Tories [72 MPs] who quit before Blair’s ’97 landslide."

Andrea Leadsom reportedly to make it 80.

Given she was the minister behind the inane "lets try and oust sunak right now for six months more pay" idea, not unsurprising.

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The canada election comparison comes to my mind is the Liberal one where they accidentally assaulted a teenager, the PM lost his cool with literal preteens and a cabinet minister poked a farmer calling him fat.

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https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1795834420680687806
The optics don't strike me as brilliant here, what do others say?

Absolutely terrible optics to be associated with a notoriously shady character, but I think if he gets ahead of the story the heroin dealer will salvage his reputation.

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In 2005 Labour had a very depressed vote in its safe seats but held up in their margianls, and at that point scotland and wales both had disproportionate seats as well.

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https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1796814651394490546?t=H6mwtggmPAOPo9mB5qY...
Fascinating. Myself, an uneducated pleb in these matters, thought the Tory campaign making an endless string of constant gaffes and widely mocked moves was bad for them, but in fact this was part of their cunning tactic to win the "air war". They're basically Arthur Harris, if Harris only bombed his own side by mistake.

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We really do need to increase the parliamentary deposit to account for inflation. £500 is not much of a disincentive now, and it would be funny to see a self-important microparty land itself in financial difficulties because of overambition.

They should ask for signatures from a certain percentage of the electorate (which would also force the sleepiest and laziest of constituency parties to actually get off their butts).

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Big farage announcement in three mins: standing as MP? Wants a tory pact? Grabbed a new defector or two? Launching a premium OnlyFans?

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The Conservatives won't be able to elect a centrist as their new Leader with Farage around.

I have a feeling the long plan would be to merge Reform into the shattered Tory Party.

Anyway, the big challenge for our nige will be that despite his "populism", being a known factor for almost two decades and being able to choose friendly turf, he has never actually managed to get elected via FPTP to anything (say what you like about galloway, that man is a master of it in by-elections at least). Going to narrowly predict he wins clacton though.