Israel-Gaza war

[Red Velvet]

With Hamas all but defeated in Rafah, Israel will soon turn its attention to the North.

"On the eastern outskirts of Rafah, close to the Israeli border, nearly every single building visible along David’s Route was flattened, as part of the IDF’s plans to construct a kilometer-long buffer zone."

Col. Liron Betito, Commander of the Givati Infantry Brigade spoke about the Rafah situation.

“I estimate that to [achieve] our next objective, which is to finish up Shaboura and Tel Sultan… we want to demolish them entirely, it will take more or less a month, at this level of intensity,”


Troops of the IDF’s Givati Brigade operate in the Yabna camp of southern Gaza’s Rafah, June 18, 2024. (Emanuel Fabian/Times of Israel)

https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-generals-approve-lebanon-offensive-battle-plans-army-says/

Israel are ready for action on the Northern border.

"In a statement, the IDF said the generals held an assessment, during which “operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon were approved.”

The top commanders also made decisions regarding “accelerating the readiness of the forces on the ground,” the military added."

The only remaining question before that fires up will be how many targets will the US hit in Lebanon to help in the fight against Hezbollah.

Or will the Americans sit back and provide intelligence and weaponry like they did in Gaza.

I broke that scoop few weeks ago but two Pro-Israel posters here suggested I was dumb for even giving credit to Lebanese sources being heard on the matter, even if they’re the main interested actors on this lol

[All Along The Watchtower]

Attacking Lebanon is so beyond stupid and counterproductive to Israeli security.

Not if the goal is to draw Israel’s patron into the war.

[Frodo]

So we're probably in the point of the cycle where the Judenhass Collective cheers as the underpowered enemy manages to inflict damage on Israel, at which point Israel is forced to respond with massive force, and the screams switch to cries of "Genocide!". Same as it ever was.

Except in 2006, when the IDF wasn't stopped by cries of "Genocide!" but it's own incompetence as its troops made no progress and its flagship was torched off the coast of Beirut by an AShM. All the supposed "massive force" of the IDF couldn't get its troops past the Litani. They started out talking about arresting Nasrallah and ended up accepting an unfavourable ceasefire proposal from the UN.

Considering Hezbollah was far weaker in 2006 than they are today whereas the IDF's ground forces are exhausted after months of combat in Gaza, there's not much reason to expect "massive force" would achieve much. As the Israeli former deputy NSC head put it, in a war Israel would lose within 24 hours

That's interesting, because right after the end of hostilities in 2006, the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah admitted he had miscalculated by going to war with Israel in the first place.  Even in 2023 they resisted the impulse to join Hamas in its war with Israel, even distancing themselves from any prior knowledge of the events of October 7th. It wasn't until this year with the IDF concentrated on Hamas in Gaza that Hezbollah decided to step it up.  It seems their last experience at war with Israel shook them up so badly that they waited 18 years before wanting a rematch.  And yet even now, an all-out war is not a sure thing.  

[MyLifeIsYours]

A report published on Wednesday by the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) detailed six attacks that involved the suspected use of GBU-31 (2,000 lbs), GBU-32 (1,000 lbs) and GBU-39 (250 lbs) bombs from October 9 to December 2, 2023, on residential buildings, a school, refugee camps and a market.

The UN Office verified 218 deaths from these attacks and said information received indicated the number of fatalities could be much higher.

“The requirement to select means and methods of warfare that avoid or at the very least minimize to every extent civilian harm appears to have been consistently violated in Israel’s bombing campaign,” High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said in a statement.

The report noted that unlawful targeting when committed as part of a widespread or systematic attack against a civilian population, “in line with a State or organizational policy, may also implicate the commission of crimes against humanity.”

https://www.palestinechronicle.com/israeli-airstrikes-on-gaza-may-have-violated-laws-of-war-un-human-rights-office/

[Agonized-Statism]

Here's an old, but interesting article from the India-based Business Standard on the potential economic and geopolitical consequences of an expansion of the war:

What if it does spread? Hezbollah — an Iran-backed political party and militia that's a powerful player in Lebanon — has already exchanged fire with Israeli forces on the border, and said it hit an Israeli army post with guided missiles.

If the conflict spreads to Lebanon and Syria, where Iran also supports armed groups, it would effectively turn into a proxy war between Iran and Israel — and the economic cost would rise.

"Iran and Hezbollah are monitoring and assessing the situation," says Yair Golan, the Israeli military's former deputy chief of staff. "If Hezbollah joins the campaign, the timing could be after the beginning of a ground operation in Gaza."

Escalation on these lines would raise the probability of a direct conflict between Israel and Iran, likely sending oil prices higher. In the short but bloody Israel-Hezbollah war of 2006, crude jumped by $5 a barrel. On top of the shock from the confined-war scenario, an equivalent move today would send the price up 10% to about $94.

Tensions could also rise in the wider region. Egypt, Lebanon, and Tunisia are all mired in economic and political stagnation. Israel's response to Hamas' attack has already triggered protests in a number of countries in the region. On the Arab Street, the distance from anti-Israel marches to anti-government unrest is short. A repeat of the Arab Spring — a wave of protest and rebellion that toppled governments in the early 2010s — isn't unthinkable.

The global economic impact in this scenario comes from two shocks: A 10% jump in oil prices, and a risk-off move in financial markets in line with what happened during the Arab Spring. We capture the latter move with an eight-point increase in the VIX index, a widely used measure of risk aversion.

They add up to a 0.3 percentage-point drag on global growth next year — about $300 billion of lost output — that would slow the pace to 2.4%. Outside of the 2020 Covid crisis and the worldwide slump of 2009, that would be the weakest growth in three decades.

Higher oil prices would also add about 0.2 percentage points to global inflation — holding it near 6%, and sustaining pressure on central bankers to keep monetary policy tight even as growth disappoints.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I broke that scoop few weeks ago but two Pro-Israel posters here suggested I was dumb for even giving credit to Lebanese sources being heard on the matter, even if they’re the main interested actors on this lol

It's even stranger because it isn't just the Lebanese media talking about this, the Israeli press has been talking about the prospect of a land invasion of Lebanon for at least a month at this point.

That's interesting, because right after the end of hostilities in 2006, the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah admitted he had miscalculated by going to war with Israel in the first place.  Even in 2023 they resisted the impulse to join Hamas in its war with Israel, even distancing themselves from any prior knowledge of the events of October 7th. It wasn't until this year with the IDF concentrated on Hamas in Gaza that Hezbollah decided to step it up.  It seems their last experience at war with Israel shook them up so badly that they waited 18 years before wanting a rematch.  And yet even now, an all-out war is not a sure thing. 

I can't count the number of times I've seen this quote misused:

If there was even a 1 percent chance that the July 11 capturing operation would have led to a war like the one that happened, would you have done it? I would say no, absolutely not, for humanitarian, moral, social, security, military, and political reasons. [...] What happened is not an issue of a reaction to a capturing operation... what happened was already planned for. The fact that it happened in July has averted a situation that would have been a lot worse, had the war been launched in October.

What he was saying was not "I regret starting the war, we should have never underestimated the IDF" but "I started the war early to preempt an Israeli invasion and that's why we won". He's said the exact same thing about the post-October 7th attacks, by the way; that he's only attacking because Israel would have otherwise struck first.

There are really only two ways to read it. The obvious one is that Nasrallah simply made up the story of an Israeli attack as a justification (kind of like 1967) so he could have his military victory without the political accountability of the subsequent damage to Lebanon. The other is that he genuinely believed that Israel was going to attack and that otherwise he would have preferred a diplomatic solution.

Either way, the fact that Hezbollah started firing rockets on October 8th despite the lack of advanced warning from Hamas and that they haven't once deescalated in the face of increasing Israeli focus on the north seems like pretty definitive proof that Nasrallah isn't deterred. The only capability Israel had in 2006 that Hezbollah had no answer to was the systematic destruction of civilian infrastructure by airstrikes whereas today they have enough rockets, missiles and drones to impose a kind of mutually assured destruction if they try to implement the Dahiya Doctrine.

[Silent Hunter]

whereas today they have enough rockets, missiles and drones to impose a kind of mutually assured destruction if they try to implement the Dahiya Doctrine.

Considering how successful Iron Dome and David's Sling have been, that idea has to be called into question.

[Agonized-Statism]

Hezbollah leader: Cyprus will be target if it lets Israel use its territory in conflict

The leader of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, warned of a war “without rules or ceilings” in the event of a full-scale Israeli offensive against the Lebanese militia, as he threatened that Cyprus could become a target if it allowed Israel to use its territory in any conflict.

Cyprus and Israel have a bilateral defence cooperation agreement which has seen the countries conduct joint exercises.

“Opening Cypriot airports and bases to the Israeli enemy to target Lebanon would mean that the Cypriot government is part of the war, and the resistance will deal with it as part of the war,” the Hezbollah chief said.

Nikos Christodoulides, the island’s president, responded on Wednesday evening: “Cyprus remains uninvolved in any military conflicts and positions itself as part of the solution rather the problem.”

He sought to emphasise the humanitarian role the EU’s easternmost state had played in the Middle East, facilitating the opening of a sea corridor to transport desperately needed aid to Gaza.

“Our humanitarian corridor is a testament to our commitment to peace and stability,” he told reporters at a University of Cyprus graduation ceremony.

He added: “Such statements are not pleasant, but they do not reflect reality. Cyprus is not participating in any military engagements.”

Christodoulides said the threat would be raised through diplomatic channels.

Nasrallah’s remarks came a day after Israeli generals said they had signed off on planning for a wider offensive against Hezbollah, and Israel’s foreign minister, Israel Katz, suggested the country was on the brink of deciding whether to expand the war.

You're all super quiet on these events, am I missing something?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hezbollah leader: Cyprus will be target if it lets Israel use its territory in conflict

The leader of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, warned of a war “without rules or ceilings” in the event of a full-scale Israeli offensive against the Lebanese militia, as he threatened that Cyprus could become a target if it allowed Israel to use its territory in any conflict.

Cyprus and Israel have a bilateral defence cooperation agreement which has seen the countries conduct joint exercises.

“Opening Cypriot airports and bases to the Israeli enemy to target Lebanon would mean that the Cypriot government is part of the war, and the resistance will deal with it as part of the war,” the Hezbollah chief said.

Nikos Christodoulides, the island’s president, responded on Wednesday evening: “Cyprus remains uninvolved in any military conflicts and positions itself as part of the solution rather the problem.”

He sought to emphasise the humanitarian role the EU’s easternmost state had played in the Middle East, facilitating the opening of a sea corridor to transport desperately needed aid to Gaza.

“Our humanitarian corridor is a testament to our commitment to peace and stability,” he told reporters at a University of Cyprus graduation ceremony.

He added: “Such statements are not pleasant, but they do not reflect reality. Cyprus is not participating in any military engagements.”

Christodoulides said the threat would be raised through diplomatic channels.

Nasrallah’s remarks came a day after Israeli generals said they had signed off on planning for a wider offensive against Hezbollah, and Israel’s foreign minister, Israel Katz, suggested the country was on the brink of deciding whether to expand the war.

You're all super quiet on these events, am I missing something?

War with Lebanon is highly unlikely

[Pres Mike]

At this point, a ceasefire is unlikely. Hamas won't agree unless they have some commitment that the ceasefire will become permanent. Which Netanyahu will never agree to (publically).

Perhaps Hamas will agree to surrender in exchange for a post war power sharing agreement with UN forces?

[Meclazine for Israel]

Comparison of Arab and Jewish nations in the region.

[Agafin]

Comparison of Arab and Jewish nations in the region.

This is why I'll always support Israel. David vs Goliath.

[Brittain33]

A new proposal for what defines a Zionist in 2024: any person who didn’t feel a burst of joy, hope, or grim satisfaction on October 7 as news reached the world of what Hamas did. I think that reaction unites the people who determine and define anti-Zionism today.

[Hindsight was 2020]

A new proposal for what defines a Zionist in 2024: any person who didn’t feel a burst of joy, hope, or grim satisfaction on October 7 as news reached the world of what Hamas did. I think that reaction unites the people who determine and define anti-Zionism today.

there are plenty of people here and throughout the country who managed to demonstrate that you can be anger at Israel’s behavior and not condone Hamas

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

A new proposal for what defines a Zionist in 2024: any person who didn’t feel a burst of joy, hope, or grim satisfaction on October 7 as news reached the world of what Hamas did. I think that reaction unites the people who determine and define anti-Zionism today.

Piss off there are plenty of people here and throughout the country who managed to demonstrate that you can be anger at Israel’s behavior and not condone Hamas

The internet Jacobins have made clear that those are Zionists and will not be spared.

[Beet]

A new proposal for what defines a Zionist in 2024: any person who didn’t feel a burst of joy, hope, or grim satisfaction on October 7 as news reached the world of what Hamas did. I think that reaction unites the people who determine and define anti-Zionism today.

So Netanyahu and Ben Gvir aren't Zionists?

[Brittain33]

A new proposal for what defines a Zionist in 2024: any person who didn’t feel a burst of joy, hope, or grim satisfaction on October 7 as news reached the world of what Hamas did. I think that reaction unites the people who determine and define anti-Zionism today.

Piss off there are plenty of people here and throughout the country who managed to demonstrate that you can be anger at Israel’s behavior and not condone Hamas

How did you feel on October 7 when you heard the news? I’m trying to understand which angle you’re coming from on my proposal.

You can viscerally reject Netanyahu and his allies and think Israel has gone too far and has no plan for victory - and still be a Zionist.

[Brittain33]

A new proposal for what defines a Zionist in 2024: any person who didn’t feel a burst of joy, hope, or grim satisfaction on October 7 as news reached the world of what Hamas did. I think that reaction unites the people who determine and define anti-Zionism today.

So Netanyahu and Ben Gvir aren't Zionists?

Sounds like you agree on the formula, conspiracy theory nonsense aside. 🤝🏻

[Hindsight was 2020]

A new proposal for what defines a Zionist in 2024: any person who didn’t feel a burst of joy, hope, or grim satisfaction on October 7 as news reached the world of what Hamas did. I think that reaction unites the people who determine and define anti-Zionism today.

Piss off there are plenty of people here and throughout the country who managed to demonstrate that you can be anger at Israel’s behavior and not condone Hamas

How did you feel on October 7 when you heard the news? I’m trying to understand which angle you’re coming from on my proposal.

You can viscerally reject Netanyahu and his allies and think Israel has gone too far and has no plan for victory - and still be a Zionist.

Also how Israel treats Palestinians is disgusting and they should be pressured into changing their policies but the Hamas response of killing civilians doesn’t help anyone

Hamas is posting tons of images to telegram of Israeli civilians they killed in cold blood. They have no idea how bad they f-ed themselves and the pr blow to sympathies in the West this will be

[CumbrianLefty]

A new proposal for what defines a Zionist in 2024: any person who didn’t feel a burst of joy, hope, or grim satisfaction on October 7 as news reached the world of what Hamas did. I think that reaction unites the people who determine and define anti-Zionism today.

Piss off there are plenty of people here and throughout the country who managed to demonstrate that you can be anger at Israel’s behavior and not condone Hamas

The internet Jacobins have made clear that those are Zionists and will not be spared.

In other words, people who always have been - and always will be - powerless in the real world?

Thankfully.

[Brittain33]

A new proposal for what defines a Zionist in 2024: any person who didn’t feel a burst of joy, hope, or grim satisfaction on October 7 as news reached the world of what Hamas did. I think that reaction unites the people who determine and define anti-Zionism today.

Piss off there are plenty of people here and throughout the country who managed to demonstrate that you can be anger at Israel’s behavior and not condone Hamas

The internet Jacobins have made clear that those are Zionists and will not be spared.

In other words, people who always have been - and always will be - powerless in the real world?

Jacobins famously held power during the period remembered as “The Reign of Terror.”

Currently, democracies are strong and protected enough to keep the Briahna Joy Grays and Jeremy Corbyns out of positions where they could do real harm, but both had their shot and the generational change is moving in their favor.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

A new proposal for what defines a Zionist in 2024: any person who didn’t feel a burst of joy, hope, or grim satisfaction on October 7 as news reached the world of what Hamas did. I think that reaction unites the people who determine and define anti-Zionism today.

Piss off there are plenty of people here and throughout the country who managed to demonstrate that you can be anger at Israel’s behavior and not condone Hamas

The internet Jacobins have made clear that those are Zionists and will not be spared.

In other words, people who always have been - and always will be - powerless in the real world?

Thankfully.

They might not be able to affect official policy, but they can and are making our cities a very dangerous place for Jewish people.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

whereas today they have enough rockets, missiles and drones to impose a kind of mutually assured destruction if they try to implement the Dahiya Doctrine.

Considering how successful Iron Dome and David's Sling have been, that idea has to be called into question.

On the contrary, this war has proven how woefully insufficient Israeli air defense would be against a serious Hezbollah attack. Even a pure brute force attack would overwhelm David's Sling and the Iron Dome within minutes, and if they had more time and wanted to save some missiles they could use drones (which current systems have proven totally inadequate at stopping) to disable air defense systems in advance. This isn't even theoretical, Hezbollah has demonstrated this capability more than once: fire the Katyushas to force Iron Dome launchers to reveal themselves, then hammer them with drones.

Once the air defenses were overwhelmed it would be trivial for Hezbollah to, for example, knock out the electrical grid. Attacking Lebanese infrastructure would turn a short term military defeat into something far worse. Israeli papers freely admit that Hezbollah is better prepared for a fight right now and that they could inflict serious damage yet non-Israelis seem to have wildly inflated expectations of the IDF's capabilities.

[Silent Hunter]

Even a pure brute force attack would overwhelm David's Sling and the Iron Dome within minutes.

"Could" and "Would" are not the same word. I think it's important that people do not draw certainties from possibilities. Many people thought it was certain Ukraine would fall quickly to Russia in 2022. Two years later, Russia hasn't even got the whole of the Donbas.

Once the air defenses were overwhelmed it would be trivial for Hezbollah to, for example, knock out the electrical grid.

They could knock out bits of it for a few hours, maybe. For one thing, Israel has a lot of solar power - including for water heaters, with 90% of the population having them in their homes.

Even intense bombing didn't do that much damage to the British electricity network compared to the materials shortage. Berlin kept its U-Bahn running into the Battle of Berlin.

In fact, Hiroshima and Nagasaki got power back to their surviving areas in less than 72 hours. Hiroshima could have even resumed military production within a month had the war not ended nine days later.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Even a pure brute force attack would overwhelm David's Sling and the Iron Dome within minutes.

"Could" and "Would" are not the same word. I think it's important that people do not draw certainties from possibilities. Many people thought it was certain Ukraine would fall quickly to Russia in 2022. Two years later, Russia hasn't even got the whole of the Donbas.

Ground campaigns are full of uncertainty but the question of destroying or overwhelming air defenses is a matter of simple math. An air defense battery won't miraculously fire more interceptors than it can hold because it's highly motivated and a ballistic missile won't inflict less damage because it's demoralized. If Hezbollah fires 100 missiles at a target defended by launchers capable of firing 50 interceptors then there's no uncertainty at all, the defenses will be overwhelmed. We don't need to wonder whether Hezbollah is capable of overwhelming the Iron Dome or whether it's capable of destroying Iron Dome launchers because it's done both on camera.

They could knock out bits of it for a few hours, maybe. For one thing, Israel has a lot of solar power - including for water heaters, with 90% of the population having them in their homes.

Maybe, but on that measure it seems pretty obvious that the Lebanese are far less dependent on their own electrical grid than the Israelis are. The Israelis certainly aren't treating the prospective destruction of their electrical grid as lightly as you are.

Even intense bombing didn't do that much damage to the British electricity network compared to the materials shortage. Berlin kept its U-Bahn running into the Battle of Berlin.

In fact, Hiroshima and Nagasaki got power back to their surviving areas in less than 72 hours. Hiroshima could have even resumed military production within a month had the war not ended nine days later.

WW2 isn't a great comparison here because a B52 bomber or V2 rocket was just about accurate enough to reliably hit a city sized target and crippling a power grid is a matter of precise strikes, not indiscriminate destruction.

Going back to Ukraine, Putin's strikes on Ukrainian electricity infrastructure have managed to knock out somewhere between 50% and 80% of their capacity and it isn't remotely clear that their air defense is any worse than that of Israel and in some respects (eg. countermeasures to drones) they're clearly superior. If a far larger country's electrical grid can be knocked out with missile strikes then there's little reason to think the same couldn't be done to Israel.