Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Virginiá]

Thats a joke. We give 100 billion in a single year.

Long-term funding is what is going to determine whether Russia gives this another go in the future (Aside from NATO membership). Also, 100+ billion is total aid, not military aid. Most of that is budgetary and humanitarian aid. The US has given a lot, but the ammunition and equipment that the given military aid represents is being rapidly depleted on an ongoing basis.

As stated here, the US has given ~41 billion in military funding/equipment so far

https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine/

[lfromnj]

Thats a joke. We give 100 billion in a single year.

Long-term funding is what is going to determine whether Russia gives this another go in the future (Aside from NATO membership). Also, 100+ billion is total aid, not military aid. Most of that is budgetary and humanitarian aid. The US has given a lot, but the ammunition and equipment that the given military aid represents is being rapidly depleted on an ongoing basis.

As stated here, the US has given ~41 billion in military funding/equipment so far

https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine/

In the end I would argue that only America should give military aid but we should drop all other types of aid beyond a token humanitarian aid. Europe should drop most military aid though . Most American worries with the war relate to corruption while europeans have peaceniks

[pppolitics]

Thats a joke. We give 100 billion in a single year.

The best money that we ever spent.

Russia is on the verge of collapse.

[HillGoose]

https://news.yahoo.com/law-moves-ukrainian-christmas-jan-114800447.html

"New law moves Ukrainian Christmas from Jan 7 to Dec 25, other holidays changed too"

I think this is not a smart move.  It hands Putin more ammo in his narrative: "This is a war for Russian civilization.  If Russia loses it is the end of Russian civilization"

Imagine believing that the survival of "Russian civilization" hinges on Ukrainians not celebrating Christmas in December. Gives the term "War on Christmas" a whole new meaning too.

There was a reason why Stalin choose to make the movie "Alexander Nevsky" in 1938 and its depiction of Battle on the Ice in 1242 as a way to appropriate Russian nationalism in the service of his regime.  1242 was not just a German invasion but it was a Catholic invasion.  Ukraine going to the other side of the 1054 Schim will also bring up memories of the Polish-Catholic invasion of the early 1600s as well as the Teutonic Order invasion of 1242.

ya maybe among the vast population of 1000 year olds i guess

[oldtimer]

https://news.yahoo.com/law-moves-ukrainian-christmas-jan-114800447.html

"New law moves Ukrainian Christmas from Jan 7 to Dec 25, other holidays changed too"

I think this is not a smart move.  It hands Putin more ammo in his narrative: "This is a war for Russian civilization.  If Russia loses it is the end of Russian civilization"

The Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople celebrates Christmas on December 25th. If the Russian Orthodox Church considers itself superior to the Church of Constantinople, then active support of the perfidious criminal war is not its only sin.

(Warning this is a sarcastic post)

Everyone knows the real Christmas is on Dec 21st.

If you think of it Christmas was supposed to be connected astronomically with the Winter Solstice, but the dates drifted from the Julian and Gregorian Calendars.

Infact even Friday the 13th should be Sunday the 25th because of the calendar switches and drifts, but Hollywood has never made a movie about Sunday the 25th.

(End of sarcastic post)
 

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

If the PRC's method for spreading influence is elite capture rather than exporting revolution, then it's no longer Maoist in practice.

Maoists are Chinese Stalinists. Stalinism itself was already post-Marxism, Maoism is also post-Marxism. As you remember, Stalin preferred direct military invasion to revolutions, changed the course of the World Revolution to the course of building socialism in a single country, catastrophically quarreled with the International, flirted with Russian nationalists, made friends with the capitalists, concluded agreements with the most ardent anti-communists in the world — the Nazis, he trained their pilots and shared Poland with them, and at the end of his life he decided to arrange his own little Holocaust against the "cosmopolitans". All this, you know, is not very Marxist. Thanks to the genius of Mao, his version of Stalinism mutated even further. Maoism is Marxism in name only. And do you remember Pol Pot, that curious Chinese project in Cambodia? He shocked orthodox Marxists.

Second, the CCP itself was a creation of Comintern, and its elite up until the 2000s spoke Russian because many of them studied in the USSR in the 50s.

It's widely rumoured that Jiang Zemin, when he was studying in Moscow in the 50s, had a girlfriend who turned out to be a KGB spy. There's even gossip on how that explains why he simply agreed to the Sino-Russian border as-is.

Anyway, the idea that the CCP engineered the collapse of the Soviet Union is just so ridiculous that it's not worth addressing.

It is strange that in the West there is an opinion that the USSR and the PRC were two testicles in one red scrotum, when the US actively helped the PRC in confronting the USSR, starting with the Chinese war against Vietnam and ending with the Afghan war, where the Americans and the Chinese helped the Afghans together. It was also the US that helped the PRC to get out of the failed state into which it was driven by Mao. It is also worth recalling the war for territories between the PRC and the USSR, which was completed very quickly, largely thanks to the "heavenly fire" of secret Grads, with which Soviet troops annihilated the Chinese invaders on Damansky Island. You will also be interested to know that along with the word "revisionist", which in the PRC as a whole was called Soviet Marxists and those Chinese Marxists who fell out of favor with someone, the Chinese used the word "Khrushchov". "Let's crush the Chinese Khrushchovs!", etc. In the PRC and the de-Stalinized USSR, propaganda was actively carried out against each other. Soviet propagandists delicately but unambiguously compared the Maoists to the German Nazis. I cannot convey even one percent of the hatred that was between the USSR and the PRC. Looking at Putin licking Xi's shoes is hard to believe it now, I get it.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

So my Friend, please explain the distinction, for those of us not familiar with Russian burial rites and images for those considered to be "War Heroes" within the current Russian paradigm?

The heroism of the grave is determined only by the personal means of the family of the deceased. Obviously, these graves were made not by families, but by Wagner's management, so they are modest, but surprisingly worthy by Russian standards. Especially when you consider that the Russian military leadership often abandons its soldiers to be gnawed by stray dogs, or cremated them in mobile incinerators, which usually dispose of medical waste. To be in a huge mass grave dug in the forest, even some luck is required.

By the way, a fresh illustration to my words. And this is not even a battlefield, this is an ordinary civilian funeral agency in oil prosperous Samara city:

"Chilled meat": in Samara, ritualists store corpses in household refrigerators
Volga News
July 13, 2023 20:35
Machine translation:

On Thursday, July 13, the bodies of the deceased were found in Samara, which were stored in a household refrigerator with the inscription "chilled meat". The refrigerator was in an ordinary garage box on the Upper Career street.
...
Apparently, the garage is somehow related to a private funeral agency or mortuary.

[NOVA Green]

This thread has become much quieter in recent dayz... no idea if there is a correlation with Musk killing Twitter, or perhaps simply we have a Woodpecker who hasn't been posting in the joint for a couple days.

Meanwhile purges and pogroms continue in Russia...

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1680057554213167104?s=20

Also UKR advances continue on the Southern Front...

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1680029428347183105?s=20

Meanwhile in Bakhmut area...

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1680028219863384064?s=20

Also...

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1680028200909385728?s=20

Let's face it Russia just pulled the last of their reserves out of Belarus to reinforce front-line positions.

Russian reserves are practically toast, and even if the Czar Putin does another general mobilization (Which will only further anti-war sentiment within Russia), trying to plug the gaps of a massive frontline with people who don't want to be their is doubtful to be militarily successful, esp with units without any significant training.

[NOVA Green]

Regardless of Russian EW "Jammers", apparently UKR is still capable of hitting Russian armored convoys in open ground in daylight with HIMARS...

In theory I guess this type of bombardment is where the cluster bombs might come in handy to save more precision ammo shells.

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1679929269118484485?s=20

[Badger]

Thats a joke. We give 100 billion in a single year.

Long-term funding is what is going to determine whether Russia gives this another go in the future (Aside from NATO membership). Also, 100+ billion is total aid, not military aid. Most of that is budgetary and humanitarian aid. The US has given a lot, but the ammunition and equipment that the given military aid represents is being rapidly depleted on an ongoing basis.

As stated here, the US has given ~41 billion in military funding/equipment so far

https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine/

In the end I would argue that only America should give military aid but we should drop all other types of aid beyond a token humanitarian aid. Europe should drop most military aid though . Most American worries with the war relate to corruption while europeans have peaceniks

Oh pound salt. "I believe we should deprive humanitarian Aid of a country that is undergoing a huge humanitarian crisis because it offends muh fiscal conservatism."

Contemptuous.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Thats a joke. We give 100 billion in a single year.

1-Most of that was military equipment that was already produced and a sunk cost. We're not using it, so why not give it to someone who could? That actually saves money because it means we don't have to pay for maintenance anymore.
2-The cost was kind of inaccurately reported. It didn't take into account devaluation of the equipment.

An analogy: Say a rich person buys a new car for $50k. Then two years later they gift it to their kid. Did they just give their kid something worth $50k? No, because the car is worth significantly less now two years later and after the use of that time. It probably wouldn't be worth even $20k at that point. Same thing here.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-recap-biden-champions-nato-075038216.html

"Ukraine Recap: US Intel Official Says Conflict at ‘Stalemate’"

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has reached a stalemate, a senior US intelligence official said, offering a downbeat assessment of a counteroffensive that some US and European leaders had hoped would turn the tide in Kyiv’s favor.

This will be a war of attrition and will continue indefinitely

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.com/us-defence-budget-house-representatives-052456896.html

"US defence budget: House of Representatives rejects number of negative amendments for Ukraine"

Biden: It's time for another account error. 
Ukraine: We spent the next 3 account errors already

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-14/eu-spars-with-ecb-on-plan-to-tax-sanctioned-russian-assets

"EU Spars With ECB on Plan to Tax Sanctioned Russian Assets"



EU wants to use profits from frozen Russian assets to be routed to Ukraine. ECB pushes back saying a few billion EUR is not worth risking long-term international confidence in the EUR.

I think in the end they will find a way to get this money.  The taking of frozen assets itself will be much harder and I suspect in the end will not take place.

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/14/europe-us-f16-training-00106433

"Europe still waiting on U.S. to formally approve F-16 training"

It seems approval “is still being reviewed” and most likely will take place in August?

[jaichind]

With the collective West stuck dealing with a very likely indefinite war in Ukraine but with the more powerful long-term threat being PRC the solution being proposed seems to be a two-front conflct.

[jaichind]

https://www.upday.com/de/selenskyj-daempft-erwartungen-an-gegenoffensive

"Zelensky dampens expectations of counter-offensive"

German media reports that Zelensky has dampened expectations of the counter-offensive

[Hindsight was 2020]

Thats a joke. We give 100 billion in a single year.

Long-term funding is what is going to determine whether Russia gives this another go in the future (Aside from NATO membership). Also, 100+ billion is total aid, not military aid. Most of that is budgetary and humanitarian aid. The US has given a lot, but the ammunition and equipment that the given military aid represents is being rapidly depleted on an ongoing basis.

As stated here, the US has given ~41 billion in military funding/equipment so far

https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine/

In the end I would argue that only America should give military aid but we should drop all other types of aid beyond a token humanitarian aid. Europe should drop most military aid though . Most American worries with the war relate to corruption while europeans have peaceniks

Oh pound salt. "I believe we should deprive humanitarian Aid of a country that is undergoing a huge humanitarian crisis because it offends muh fiscal conservatism."

Contemptuous.

He’s not against aid for fiscal conservative reasons but because he’s utterly convinced despite no hard evidence that Ukraine is stealing and reselling most of the aid we send them

[jaichind]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/15/us/politics/ukraine-leopards-bradleys-counteroffensive.html

"After Suffering Heavy Losses, Ukrainians Paused to Rethink Strategy"

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.upday.com/de/selenskyj-daempft-erwartungen-an-gegenoffensive

"Zelensky dampens expectations of counter-offensive"

German media reports that Zelensky has dampened expectations of the counter-offensive

Wise. This is a marathon, not a race.

[jaichind]

https://www.upday.com/de/selenskyj-daempft-erwartungen-an-gegenoffensive

"Zelensky dampens expectations of counter-offensive"

German media reports that Zelensky has dampened expectations of the counter-offensive

Wise. This is a marathon, not a race.

Yeah, with the element of surprise not working for either side it will have to be slow attritional attacks from both sides with massive use of artillery.   More recently Ukraine has also adopted a lot of the Russian tactics of using artillery combined with infantry with a small amount of armor support to try to push forward slowly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://news.yahoo.com/us-defence-budget-house-representatives-052456896.html

"US defence budget: House of Representatives rejects number of negative amendments for Ukraine"

Biden: It's time for another account error. 
Ukraine: We spent the next 3 account errors already

Wow. Not even cluster munitions was able to get significantly more than 1/3 of the chamber voting Aye.
I wonder how the partisan divide on that one was...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.upday.com/de/selenskyj-daempft-erwartungen-an-gegenoffensive

"Zelensky dampens expectations of counter-offensive"

German media reports that Zelensky has dampened expectations of the counter-offensive

Wise. This is a marathon, not a race.

Yeah, with the element of surprise not working for either side it will have to be slow attritional attacks from both sides with massive use of artillery.   More recently Ukraine has also adopted a lot of the Russian tactics of using artillery combined with infantry with a small amount of armor support to try to push forward slowly.

It must help for that one that Western aid has been giving Ukraine more stuff to work with, allowing them more operational options.

[Hindsight was 2020]

This thread has become much quieter in recent dayz... no idea if there is a correlation with Musk killing Twitter, or perhaps simply we have a Woodpecker who hasn't been posting in the joint for a couple days.

Meanwhile purges and pogroms continue in Russia...

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1680057554213167104?s=20

Also UKR advances continue on the Southern Front...

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1680029428347183105?s=20

Meanwhile in Bakhmut area...

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1680028219863384064?s=20

Also...

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1680028200909385728?s=20

Let's face it Russia just pulled the last of their reserves out of Belarus to reinforce front-line positions.

Russian reserves are practically toast, and even if the Czar Putin does another general mobilization (Which will only further anti-war sentiment within Russia), trying to plug the gaps of a massive frontline with people who don't want to be their is doubtful to be militarily successful, esp with units without any significant training.

The thing I find bizarre is the in the build up to this campaign that Russian trolls were bragging about the defensive fortifications they had set up and said it was going to be another Battle of Kursk. But the thing at Kursk was the Soviets took advantage of their multiple lines and allowed lines to be penetrated to grind down the Germans but here they’ve thrown everything at the first line and aren’t rotating units for what seems to be the desire to stop Ukraine before getting through the first line. But because they’re doing that they’re taking on high (and by a lot of reports more than Ukraine) causalities and losing lots of artillery so when Ukraine gets through the first line the next several lines will be undermanned to the point of being ineffective

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The thing I find bizarre is the in the build up to this campaign that Russian trolls were bragging about the defensive fortifications they had set up and said it was going to be another Battle of Kursk. But the thing at Kursk was the Soviets took advantage of their multiple lines and allowed lines to be penetrated to grind down the Germans but here they’ve thrown everything at the first line and aren’t rotating units for what seems to be the desire to stop Ukraine before getting through the first line. But because they’re doing that they’re taking on high (and by a lot of reports more than Ukraine) causalities and losing lots of artillery so when Ukraine gets through the first line the next several lines will be undermanned to the point of being ineffective

No matter what the actual cause(s) of these gains are, the signs point to Ukraine doing solid on a small-scale, tactical level.