Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

Vilnius ad on bus pushing for F-16 for Ukraine

[CumbrianLefty]

It may not be "tankie", but the Barclaygraph these days is a genuinely horrific publication.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.com/law-moves-ukrainian-christmas-jan-114800447.html

"New law moves Ukrainian Christmas from Jan 7 to Dec 25, other holidays changed too"

I think this is not a smart move.  It hands Putin more ammo in his narrative: "This is a war for Russian civilization.  If Russia loses it is the end of Russian civilization"

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1679839793029562368

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1679810995361816577

[jaichind]

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3458187/lt-gen-douglas-a-sims-ii-usa-director-for-operations-j-3-the-joint-staff-brigad/

USA Department of Defense briefing

  But the conditions right now for the employment of the F-16s are probably not -- they're probably not ideal.  I mean, the Russians still possess some air defense capability.  They have air capability.  And the number of F-16s that would be provided may not be perfect for what's going on right now.  As the future changes, that certainly will dictate how that is employed.

I think what he is trying to say is that while Russia has significant anti-air and air assets the best way to use F-16 is to put a lot of them into action at the same time versus piecemeal.  Of course, to get such a force of F-16s assembled, pilots trained, logistics set up, airstrips altered, etc etc will take a significant amount of time.

[jaichind]

The Week magazine

[2952-0-0]

After the seizure of power by the Bolsheviks, the nationalism of the peoples of the Russian Empire, including the Russian people, became a spring in a tin can, nourished by the extremism of the Marxists. The can is open. This means that all over the former Soviet Union is full of ultra-right, and as you know, there is no more fertile ground for Maoist agents than the ultra-right. Any state of the former USSR, except perhaps the Baltic states, which was Soviet only on the map, is extremely malleable for the PRC.

Of course, the degree of influence of the ultra-right in the former Soviet republics is a regulated thing. The question is how much it can be suppressed.

But, the reality is, the PRC's main tool to gain influence abroad has been elite capture, not supporting revolutions. The old adage that revolutionaries become counter-revolutionaries after they gain power rings true. That's why the PRC supports the far-right military junta of Myanmar while also supporting various ethnic rebel groups, why it supports various Islamic theocrats while suppressing Islam at home, and even why it supported the Nepali government when it was suppressing Maoist rebels.

The overwhelming main concern for the CCP leadership right now isn't about how to export the revolution, but how to keep themselves in power in the context of China's own sputtering economy and increased tensions with the western powers. Maaaaybe this will lead to some Central Asian dictators or some Siberian warlord becoming richer. But, the overwhelming sentiment among the CCP elite is "if Russia loses, the west will have a free hand to besiege us", not "let's export the Revolution! Long live Xi Jinping Thought!"

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://news.yahoo.com/law-moves-ukrainian-christmas-jan-114800447.html

"New law moves Ukrainian Christmas from Jan 7 to Dec 25, other holidays changed too"

I think this is not a smart move.  It hands Putin more ammo in his narrative: "This is a war for Russian civilization.  If Russia loses it is the end of Russian civilization"

Imagine believing that the survival of "Russian civilization" hinges on Ukrainians not celebrating Christmas in December. Gives the term "War on Christmas" a whole new meaning too.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.com/law-moves-ukrainian-christmas-jan-114800447.html

"New law moves Ukrainian Christmas from Jan 7 to Dec 25, other holidays changed too"

I think this is not a smart move.  It hands Putin more ammo in his narrative: "This is a war for Russian civilization.  If Russia loses it is the end of Russian civilization"

Imagine believing that the survival of "Russian civilization" hinges on Ukrainians not celebrating Christmas in December. Gives the term "War on Christmas" a whole new meaning too.

There was a reason why Stalin choose to make the movie "Alexander Nevsky" in 1938 and its depiction of Battle on the Ice in 1242 as a way to appropriate Russian nationalism in the service of his regime.  1242 was not just a German invasion but it was a Catholic invasion.  Ukraine going to the other side of the 1054 Schim will also bring up memories of the Polish-Catholic invasion of the early 1600s as well as the Teutonic Order invasion of 1242.

[2952-0-0]

https://news.yahoo.com/law-moves-ukrainian-christmas-jan-114800447.html

"New law moves Ukrainian Christmas from Jan 7 to Dec 25, other holidays changed too"

I think this is not a smart move.  It hands Putin more ammo in his narrative: "This is a war for Russian civilization.  If Russia loses it is the end of Russian civilization"

Putin has been saying that since the beginning of the war, and the collective response from the Russian people has been to sit on their behinds. Heck, even when the Kremlin was being firebombed, and when rebels were approaching Moscow, he still couldn't motivate Russians to get off their behinds. So Ukraine changing its church calendar will?!

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://news.yahoo.com/law-moves-ukrainian-christmas-jan-114800447.html

"New law moves Ukrainian Christmas from Jan 7 to Dec 25, other holidays changed too"

I think this is not a smart move.  It hands Putin more ammo in his narrative: "This is a war for Russian civilization.  If Russia loses it is the end of Russian civilization"

The Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople celebrates Christmas on December 25th. If the Russian Orthodox Church considers itself superior to the Church of Constantinople, then active support of the perfidious criminal war is not its only sin.

[Storr]

This guy might be useful in a prisoner exchange for Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and/or former US Marine Paul Whelan. The Russians probably want a spy for a spy deal. No basketball players this time.

https://twitter.com/arawnsley/status/1679869574458515465?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1679863164211453952?s=20

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

After the seizure of power by the Bolsheviks, the nationalism of the peoples of the Russian Empire, including the Russian people, became a spring in a tin can, nourished by the extremism of the Marxists. The can is open. This means that all over the former Soviet Union is full of ultra-right, and as you know, there is no more fertile ground for Maoist agents than the ultra-right. Any state of the former USSR, except perhaps the Baltic states, which was Soviet only on the map, is extremely malleable for the PRC.

Of course, the degree of influence of the ultra-right in the former Soviet republics is a regulated thing. The question is how much it can be suppressed.

But, the reality is, the PRC's main tool to gain influence abroad has been elite capture, not supporting revolutions. The old adage that revolutionaries become counter-revolutionaries after they gain power rings true. That's why the PRC supports the far-right military junta of Myanmar while also supporting various ethnic rebel groups, why it supports various Islamic theocrats while suppressing Islam at home, and even why it supported the Nepali government when it was suppressing Maoist rebels.

The overwhelming main concern for the CCP leadership right now isn't about how to export the revolution, but how to keep themselves in power in the context of China's own sputtering economy and increased tensions with the western powers. Maaaaybe this will lead to some Central Asian dictators or some Siberian warlord becoming richer. But, the overwhelming sentiment among the CCP elite is "if Russia loses, the west will have a free hand to besiege us", not "let's export the Revolution! Long live Xi Jinping Thought!"

The tactics of cultivating agents among the elite is as effective as possible, revolutions are an archaic thing compared to this. I don’t know if the Russian Party in the CPSU and the KGB was raised by the Chinese, or if it was a purely historical inevitability of the development of Russian philosophy, but it was the nationalists of the Soviet elite who turned the USSR, which proudly opposed the PRC in their own Cold War after de-Stalinization, into the CIS, where countries are rushing to become colonies of the PRC. I don’t know why a revolution is needed when the PRC can just help some far right party to become the ruling party in the state and make it its puppet.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://news.yahoo.com/law-moves-ukrainian-christmas-jan-114800447.html

"New law moves Ukrainian Christmas from Jan 7 to Dec 25, other holidays changed too"

I think this is not a smart move.  It hands Putin more ammo in his narrative: "This is a war for Russian civilization.  If Russia loses it is the end of Russian civilization"

Putin has been saying that since the beginning of the war, and the collective response from the Russian people has been to sit on their behinds. Heck, even when the Kremlin was being firebombed, and when rebels were approaching Moscow, he still couldn't motivate Russians to get off their behinds. So Ukraine changing its church calendar will?!

Also, despite all the talk of BASED TRAD ANTI-WOKE Russia being the "Last Fortress of Christendom" and the conservative counter to Woke America, Russia's rates of Church Attendance and Belief in God are on par with the rest of Europe, most marriages end in divorce, and the abortion rate is the highest in the world.

[Virginiá]

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3458187/lt-gen-douglas-a-sims-ii-usa-director-for-operations-j-3-the-joint-staff-brigad/

USA Department of Defense briefing

  But the conditions right now for the employment of the F-16s are probably not -- they're probably not ideal.  I mean, the Russians still possess some air defense capability.  They have air capability.  And the number of F-16s that would be provided may not be perfect for what's going on right now.  As the future changes, that certainly will dictate how that is employed.

I think what he is trying to say is that while Russia has significant anti-air and air assets the best way to use F-16 is to put a lot of them into action at the same time versus piecemeal.  Of course, to get such a force of F-16s assembled, pilots trained, logistics set up, airstrips altered, etc etc will take a significant amount of time.

Keep in mind Ukrainians aren't intending to take on Russian jets in dogfights en masse. F-16s are largely desired so they can serve in both an air defense capacity as well as launching various kinds of missiles and other bombs at standoff distances.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1679810995361816577

Could be a pretty big deal. Taiwan has a lot of Hawk batteries they are decommissioning and the relative abundance of missiles for this system would let Ukraine more cheaply shoot down Russian drones, as well as move up more mobile short range air defenses to the front while the Hawks cover cities and towns.

[Virginiá]

thread

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1679893189354827784

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1679893207159656448

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1679880042711490560?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/ArmedMaidan/status/1679861202606759936?s=20
This guy tends to be conservative/doomer with his assessments so him saying this is interesting 🧐👀

[2952-0-0]

The tactics of cultivating agents among the elite is as effective as possible, revolutions are an archaic thing compared to this. I don’t know if the Russian Party in the CPSU and the KGB was raised by the Chinese, or if it was a purely historical inevitability of the development of Russian philosophy, but it was the nationalists of the Soviet elite who turned the USSR, which proudly opposed the PRC in their own Cold War after de-Stalinization, into the CIS, where countries are rushing to become colonies of the PRC. I don’t know why a revolution is needed when the PRC can just help some far right party to become the ruling party in the state and make it its puppet.

If the PRC's method for spreading influence is elite capture rather than exporting revolution, then it's no longer Maoist in practice.

Second, the CCP itself was a creation of Comintern, and its elite up until the 2000s spoke Russian because many of them studied in the USSR in the 50s.

It's widely rumoured that Jiang Zemin, when he was studying in Moscow in the 50s, had a girlfriend who turned out to be a KGB spy. There's even gossip on how that explains why he simply agreed to the Sino-Russian border as-is.

Anyway, the idea that the CCP engineered the collapse of the Soviet Union is just so ridiculous that it's not worth addressing.

In any case, the PRC simply doesn't care what ideology that the elites profess to cultivate them. They could be proud communists, ultra-nationalists, Islamic theocrats, social democrats, or even just men in fatigues. There's no need to even change the ruling party, or even change the leader, for that purpose.

Anyway, I'd like to reiterate again that the elite in Beijing view events in Ukraine and Russia with fear and anxiety that they could be next, not with glee that somehow they can print a bigger map.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1679843413385007104?s=20

[Virginiá]

My god, Ukraine's military post-war is going to incredibly beefy and modern with this kind of funding

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1679982276040425473

Note that is Germany alone, not factoring in the US or other European countries. Probably a third of that will end up being wartime aid, or more, depending on how long it lasts.

[lfromnj]

Thats a joke. We give 100 billion in a single year.