Presidential debate megathread (debate 1: June 27, 9pm EDT, CNN)

[CentristRepublican]

https://twitter.com/josh_wingrove/status/1806557425861878214

Bulls***! American voters didn't somehow become this sane overnight from an objectively bad debate performance.

I don't know why they were so sane in 2022 and 2023, but it doesn't look like it's going to last.

Agreed.

[Redban]

Why did he say border patrol endorsed him

https://twitter.com/BPUnion/status/1806501048724430943

[wbrocks67]

The discourse is interesting to me because everyone can agree Biden had an off night, but the levels are wildly all over the place.

Most of the people I know IRL who were posting about it were moreso of the "these are our candidates???" variety or sharing memes about them both being old, etc. There were some that were surprisingly calling out some of the stuff Trump said ("black jobs" was definitely one of them) - I don't think any of them thought Biden did a good job, but the reaction of that, given with the rather surprising results of the CNN undecided voter panel (honestly shocking to me) and the Univision panel as well of Hispanic voters, seems a bit divorced from the absolute freak out that the press is having right now.

I think there's certainly a delta between "yeah that wasn't a good night for Biden, but I already thought he was old and I already don't like Trump" versus the frankly insane coverage we're seeing from the DC press where you would've thought Biden was comatose on the floor for 90 minutes.

[emailking]

There's not much more to say here, but I wonder why Trump recently is so obsessed with his "mental institutions" stuff lately. It's almost comical. Even how he pronounces the word.

I was thinking about you, watching it hours later with no headlines or conversation going in. Sorry

[emailking]

So I dreamt that the immunity decision came down today and pushed the debate out of the headlines. lol

[Amenhotep Keir Starmer]

The discourse is interesting to me because everyone can agree Biden had an off night, but the levels are wildly all over the place.

Most of the people I know IRL who were posting about it were moreso of the "these are our candidates???" variety or sharing memes about them both being old, etc. There were some that were surprisingly calling out some of the stuff Trump said ("black jobs" was definitely one of them) - I don't think any of them thought Biden did a good job, but the reaction of that, given with the rather surprising results of the CNN undecided voter panel (honestly shocking to me) and the Univision panel as well of Hispanic voters, seems a bit divorced from the absolute freak out that the press is having right now.

I think there's certainly a delta between "yeah that wasn't a good night for Biden, but I already thought he was old and I already don't like Trump" versus the frankly insane coverage we're seeing from the DC press where you would've thought Biden was comatose on the floor for 90 minutes.

Welcome back…

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/josh_wingrove/status/1806557425861878214

Bulls***! American voters didn't somehow become this sane overnight from an objectively bad debate performance.

I don't know why they were so sane in 2022 and 2023, but it doesn't look like it's going to last.

I'd be surprised as you if American suddenly wanted to stay sane again, but I will say the theoretical here (even though this is a Biden campaign press release after all, so take it with a grain of salt), that Biden being old is very baked in as we already know. Yes, the debate made him look even older, but most people weren't coming in to this expecting a fresh young guy. However, for Trump, most people have not seen him speak in person for this long in a VERY long time, and he was completely unhinged with more insane rantings than ever before, as well as more offensive language about topics that are very pertinent right now. I could see in that theoretical how swing voters could say "Yeah Biden looked old AF but Trump also said horrific and insane things"

What is interesting to me is also the reaction among race. White liberals are freaking TF out while black and hispanic people from what I've seen (just anecdotally and on social media) cared much more about Trump's racially tinged remarks than Biden being old.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The discourse is interesting to me because everyone can agree Biden had an off night, but the levels are wildly all over the place.

Most of the people I know IRL who were posting about it were moreso of the "these are our candidates???" variety or sharing memes about them both being old, etc. There were some that were surprisingly calling out some of the stuff Trump said ("black jobs" was definitely one of them) - I don't think any of them thought Biden did a good job, but the reaction of that, given with the rather surprising results of the CNN undecided voter panel (honestly shocking to me) and the Univision panel as well of Hispanic voters, seems a bit divorced from the absolute freak out that the press is having right now.

I think there's certainly a delta between "yeah that wasn't a good night for Biden, but I already thought he was old and I already don't like Trump" versus the frankly insane coverage we're seeing from the DC press where you would've thought Biden was comatose on the floor for 90 minutes.

To your point, I do think we have to see what polling looks like, and if it reflects any changes, and when.

I still don't think that should quash at least the discussion of nominating a new candidate at the convention, and the party doing the due diligence to figure out who that could be.

[GAinDC]

The discourse is interesting to me because everyone can agree Biden had an off night, but the levels are wildly all over the place.

Most of the people I know IRL who were posting about it were moreso of the "these are our candidates???" variety or sharing memes about them both being old, etc. There were some that were surprisingly calling out some of the stuff Trump said ("black jobs" was definitely one of them) - I don't think any of them thought Biden did a good job, but the reaction of that, given with the rather surprising results of the CNN undecided voter panel (honestly shocking to me) and the Univision panel as well of Hispanic voters, seems a bit divorced from the absolute freak out that the press is having right now.

I think there's certainly a delta between "yeah that wasn't a good night for Biden, but I already thought he was old and I already don't like Trump" versus the frankly insane coverage we're seeing from the DC press where you would've thought Biden was comatose on the floor for 90 minutes.

Yeah, it all seems very overblown. I think there's just a lot of panic about the prospect of Trump winning again with so much at stake. It means that Biden (or any Dem nominee) has to be in perform form during every speech, debate or public event, and that's just not realistic to expect of anyone, especially an 81 year old man.

[wbrocks67]

The discourse is interesting to me because everyone can agree Biden had an off night, but the levels are wildly all over the place.

Most of the people I know IRL who were posting about it were moreso of the "these are our candidates???" variety or sharing memes about them both being old, etc. There were some that were surprisingly calling out some of the stuff Trump said ("black jobs" was definitely one of them) - I don't think any of them thought Biden did a good job, but the reaction of that, given with the rather surprising results of the CNN undecided voter panel (honestly shocking to me) and the Univision panel as well of Hispanic voters, seems a bit divorced from the absolute freak out that the press is having right now.

I think there's certainly a delta between "yeah that wasn't a good night for Biden, but I already thought he was old and I already don't like Trump" versus the frankly insane coverage we're seeing from the DC press where you would've thought Biden was comatose on the floor for 90 minutes.

Welcome back…

Ha, thanks. Sometimes a break from the forum is needed for a couple hours, especially on a night like last night. There's a lot of overdramatics so I'm attempting to be level headed. Biden objectively had a bad debate, and not the one we wanted to see. But I think there is also something to say about some of the other stuff we're seeing - the CNN panel truly surprised me. Their undecided panels after these things are usually horrific, so for them to be evenly divided was most surprising.

The CNN flash poll was bad for Biden but it also had a Republican edge (not surprising since they said they were more likely to watch the debate) from even before the debate happened. The initial poll still had 55-45 in favor of Trump expected to win, so I'm not surprised the end result wasn't good for Biden.

[Tekken_Guy]

The discourse is interesting to me because everyone can agree Biden had an off night, but the levels are wildly all over the place.

Most of the people I know IRL who were posting about it were moreso of the "these are our candidates???" variety or sharing memes about them both being old, etc. There were some that were surprisingly calling out some of the stuff Trump said ("black jobs" was definitely one of them) - I don't think any of them thought Biden did a good job, but the reaction of that, given with the rather surprising results of the CNN undecided voter panel (honestly shocking to me) and the Univision panel as well of Hispanic voters, seems a bit divorced from the absolute freak out that the press is having right now.

I think there's certainly a delta between "yeah that wasn't a good night for Biden, but I already thought he was old and I already don't like Trump" versus the frankly insane coverage we're seeing from the DC press where you would've thought Biden was comatose on the floor for 90 minutes.

To your point, I do think we have to see what polling looks like, and if it reflects any changes, and when.

I still don't think that should quash at least the discussion of nominating a new candidate at the convention, and the party doing the due diligence to figure out who that could be.

I agree. I think we should wait if polling significantly shifts in Trump’s direction, or it just stabilizes at around Trump+1 or so.

And in the case of the former if he stays there for good or it reverts eventually.

[wbrocks67]

The discourse is interesting to me because everyone can agree Biden had an off night, but the levels are wildly all over the place.

Most of the people I know IRL who were posting about it were moreso of the "these are our candidates???" variety or sharing memes about them both being old, etc. There were some that were surprisingly calling out some of the stuff Trump said ("black jobs" was definitely one of them) - I don't think any of them thought Biden did a good job, but the reaction of that, given with the rather surprising results of the CNN undecided voter panel (honestly shocking to me) and the Univision panel as well of Hispanic voters, seems a bit divorced from the absolute freak out that the press is having right now.

I think there's certainly a delta between "yeah that wasn't a good night for Biden, but I already thought he was old and I already don't like Trump" versus the frankly insane coverage we're seeing from the DC press where you would've thought Biden was comatose on the floor for 90 minutes.

Yeah, it all seems very overblown. I think there's just a lot of panic about the prospect of Trump winning again with so much at stake. It means that Biden (or any Dem nominee) has to be in perform form during every speech, debate or public event, and that's just not realistic to expect of anyone, especially an 81 year old man.

Honestly I do believe there's a LOT of projection coming from the DC press. Most of them are liberal minded at heart so I believe they're pushing their opinions onto the coverage as well. Yes, Biden had a bad night, but the amount of stories that have been SO over the top from Politico, Axios, and many of the pundits on TV has been a bit breathtaking. They didn't even has this energy after January 6th or Trumps conviction, but a subpar debate from Biden did it? It's all a little too much.

However, Dems in disarray articles = clicks and engagement for them, so...

[emailking]

The discourse is interesting to me because everyone can agree Biden had an off night, but the levels are wildly all over the place.

Most of the people I know IRL who were posting about it were moreso of the "these are our candidates???" variety or sharing memes about them both being old, etc. There were some that were surprisingly calling out some of the stuff Trump said ("black jobs" was definitely one of them) - I don't think any of them thought Biden did a good job, but the reaction of that, given with the rather surprising results of the CNN undecided voter panel (honestly shocking to me) and the Univision panel as well of Hispanic voters, seems a bit divorced from the absolute freak out that the press is having right now.

I think there's certainly a delta between "yeah that wasn't a good night for Biden, but I already thought he was old and I already don't like Trump" versus the frankly insane coverage we're seeing from the DC press where you would've thought Biden was comatose on the floor for 90 minutes.

I was also surprised. On SM among non political types, I saw one clip where Biden trailed off awkwardly and Trump called him on it, one clip of when he said he killed Medicare, and everything else was clips of them watching the debate, laughing at the golf segment, or collective sighs about the whole thing. Much less negative to Biden than I was expecting.

Not saying he doesn't still have a big problem, maybe people just don't want to talk about this aspect of it, his presentation. But it did encourage me somewhat.

[wbrocks67]

It was a bad performance by Biden but probably perceived as even worse by hardcore partisans like ourselves who only think a match up like this goes well if our candidate wipes the floor with the other. I don’t think swing voters are seeing things as negatively toward Biden.

This debate highlighted each candidate’s weaknesses — Biden’s age and Trump’s corruption and lack of substance. Biden had more to prove (unfortunately) and he didn’t meet the moment, but all this talk of his dropping out is silly. That’s not going to happen, and in a few days we’ll all be talking about something else.

This is I think something interesting - most of the people who are freaking out are hardcore partisans. From the articles I've read so far, swing voters/undecided voter panels clearly didn't like Biden's performance, but their reactions are much more subdued than the freak out coming from prominent liberals/partisans right now. Again, could be wrong, but I think that may be owed to most regular voters already pricing it that Biden is old AF

[jojoju1998]

https://twitter.com/josh_wingrove/status/1806557425861878214

Bulls***! American voters didn't somehow become this sane overnight from an objectively bad debate performance.

I don't know why they were so sane in 2022 and 2023, but it doesn't look like it's going to last.

I'd be surprised as you if American suddenly wanted to stay sane again, but I will say the theoretical here (even though this is a Biden campaign press release after all, so take it with a grain of salt), that Biden being old is very baked in as we already know. Yes, the debate made him look even older, but most people weren't coming in to this expecting a fresh young guy. However, for Trump, most people have not seen him speak in person for this long in a VERY long time, and he was completely unhinged with more insane rantings than ever before, as well as more offensive language about topics that are very pertinent right now. I could see in that theoretical how swing voters could say "Yeah Biden looked old AF but Trump also said horrific and insane things"

What is interesting to me is also the reaction among race. White liberals are freaking TF out while black and hispanic people from what I've seen (just anecdotally and on social media) cared much more about Trump's racially tinged remarks than Biden being old.

This. Exactly this.

[SnowLabrador]

It was a bad performance by Biden but probably perceived as even worse by hardcore partisans like ourselves who only think a match up like this goes well if our candidate wipes the floor with the other. I don’t think swing voters are seeing things as negatively toward Biden.

This debate highlighted each candidate’s weaknesses — Biden’s age and Trump’s corruption and lack of substance. Biden had more to prove (unfortunately) and he didn’t meet the moment, but all this talk of his dropping out is silly. That’s not going to happen, and in a few days we’ll all be talking about something else.

This is I think something interesting - most of the people who are freaking out are hardcore partisans. From the articles I've read so far, swing voters/undecided voter panels clearly didn't like Biden's performance, but their reactions are much more subdued than the freak out coming from prominent liberals/partisans right now. Again, could be wrong, but I think that may be owed to most regular voters already pricing it that Biden is old AF

I think that can be said about most people watching the debate period. But the voters who will decide this election seem okay with downballot Democrats, but iffy about Biden. This debate will not help with the latter.

[VALibertarian]

Reposting here from the rate Trump's performance thread but I will say I think people are underrating Trump a bit -

Largely Trump did what he needed to do to survive and combined with Biden's gaffes eek out a win in the debate - He answered solidly on the abortion question (Actually almost perfectly for his position: he said he it was a states issue now, and committed to not signing a federal abortion ban), did about as well as I'd expect with the J6 and Felony conviction stuff (dodging the J6 question is about as good as you can do and his strategy of painting the conviction as a political hit job is what I said should be the strategy) and kept hammering on the border crossings as his main theme. He slipped up a bit with being off topic as he does and going after Hunter Biden but he got some good zingers, with Biden's Medicaid slipup and and golf debate being highlights.

Honestly I will say I think to my utter shock Biden came off as the one trying too hard to attack dog on Trump; most of his attempts to call Trump a whiner came off to me as feeble, and Trump's "let's not act like children" was another standout.

Dare I say Trump's best debate performance ever?

[wbrocks67]

The discourse is interesting to me because everyone can agree Biden had an off night, but the levels are wildly all over the place.

Most of the people I know IRL who were posting about it were moreso of the "these are our candidates???" variety or sharing memes about them both being old, etc. There were some that were surprisingly calling out some of the stuff Trump said ("black jobs" was definitely one of them) - I don't think any of them thought Biden did a good job, but the reaction of that, given with the rather surprising results of the CNN undecided voter panel (honestly shocking to me) and the Univision panel as well of Hispanic voters, seems a bit divorced from the absolute freak out that the press is having right now.

I think there's certainly a delta between "yeah that wasn't a good night for Biden, but I already thought he was old and I already don't like Trump" versus the frankly insane coverage we're seeing from the DC press where you would've thought Biden was comatose on the floor for 90 minutes.

I was also surprised. On SM among non political types, I saw one clip where Biden trailed off awkwardly and Trump called him on it, one clip of when he said he killed Medicare, and everything else was clips of them watching the debate, laughing at the golf segment, or collective sighs about the whole thing. Much less negative to Biden than I was expecting.

Not saying he doesn't still have a big problem, maybe people just don't want to talk about this aspect of it, his presentation. But it did encourage me somewhat.

Yep- same as me. And what I found most striking was two acquaintances who are nonwhite (one hispanic and one black) both of whom are definitely "I don't like either of them" seemed actually more on Biden's side - one got really annoyed at the 'what have you done for black people?' question towards Biden and the other posted 'how are these our choices?' but then right after RTed someone saying they'd still vote for biden if he was in hospice lol

Again, we'll see how it falls out but I do think the reaction from people obsessed with politics and super partisans is a bit divorced from people IRL.

[SnowLabrador]

Reposting here from the rate Trump's performance thread but I will say I think people are underrating Trump a bit -

Largely Trump did what he needed to do to survive and combined with Biden's gaffes eek out a win in the debate - He answered solidly on the abortion question (Actually almost perfectly for his position: he said he it was a states issue now, and committed to not signing a federal abortion ban), did about as well as I'd expect with the J6 and Felony conviction stuff (dodging the J6 question is about as good as you can do and his strategy of painting the conviction as a political hit job is what I said should be the strategy) and kept hammering on the border crossings as his main theme. He slipped up a bit with being off topic as he does and going after Hunter Biden but he got some good zingers, with Biden's Medicaid slipup and and golf debate being highlights.

Honestly I will say I think to my utter shock Biden came off as the one trying too hard to attack dog on Trump; most of his attempts to call Trump a whiner came off to me as feeble, and Trump's "let's not act javascript:swapOptions();like children" was another standout.

Dare I say Trump's best debate performance ever?

A low bar to be sure, but yes. Trump might have been the one drugged up.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/josh_wingrove/status/1806557425861878214

Bulls***! American voters didn't somehow become this sane overnight from an objectively bad debate performance.

I don't know why they were so sane in 2022 and 2023, but it doesn't look like it's going to last.

I'd be surprised as you if American suddenly wanted to stay sane again, but I will say the theoretical here (even though this is a Biden campaign press release after all, so take it with a grain of salt), that Biden being old is very baked in as we already know. Yes, the debate made him look even older, but most people weren't coming in to this expecting a fresh young guy. However, for Trump, most people have not seen him speak in person for this long in a VERY long time, and he was completely unhinged with more insane rantings than ever before, as well as more offensive language about topics that are very pertinent right now. I could see in that theoretical how swing voters could say "Yeah Biden looked old AF but Trump also said horrific and insane things"

What is interesting to me is also the reaction among race. White liberals are freaking TF out while black and hispanic people from what I've seen (just anecdotally and on social media) cared much more about Trump's racially tinged remarks than Biden being old.

This. Exactly this.

The Univision panel was telling. Trump literally could not stop talking about immigrants being murders and criminals the entire time. He said they're taking "black jobs". These things matter, and it's not surprising nonwhite people would care more about this stuff than oh yeah Biden's still old

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Post debate poll: https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/28/politics/debate-poll-cnn-trump-biden/index.html

Voters say Trump won the debate 67-33, and this even outperforms expectations of them thinking Trump would win 55-45. However 81% said it didn't change their mind, 14% said it made them reconsider but not change their mind, and only 5% said it changed their minds...with that splitting evenly 3-3 (clearly some rounding issues), thus canceling each other out.

[emailking]

I also saw somebody upset about the black jobs comment. I have to admit at the time it went right over my head to the extent I didn't even remember him saying that.

[wbrocks67]

I also saw somebody upset about the black jobs comment. I have to admit at the time it went right over my head to the extent I didn't even remember him saying that.

My "For You" tab on Twitter is basically half white liberals freaking out and half black people posting about that comment.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I also saw somebody upset about the black jobs comment. I have to admit at the time it went right over my head to the extent I didn't even remember him saying that.

I also saw somebody upset about the black jobs comment. I have to admit at the time it went right over my head to the extent I didn't even remember him saying that.

My "For You" tab on Twitter is basically half white liberals freaking out and half black people posting about that comment.

What was that comment? I don't recall it, must've been made while I was watching Furnace Fest highlights.

[wbrocks67]

Post debate poll: https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/28/politics/debate-poll-cnn-trump-biden/index.html

Voters say Trump won the debate 67-33, and this even outperforms expectations of them thinking Trump would win 55-45. However 81% said it didn't change their mind, 14% said it made them reconsider but not change their mind, and only 5% said it changed their minds...with that splitting evenly 3-3 (clearly some rounding issues), thus canceling each other out.

A 57% majority of debate-watchers Thursday night say they have no real confidence in Biden’s ability to lead the country, while 44% have no real confidence in Trump’s ability to do so. Those numbers are effectively unchanged from the poll taken prior to the debate, in which 55% of those voters said they had no confidence in Biden, and 47% that they lacked confidence in Trump.

Trump increased a bit, and Biden lost a bit. But this is interesting to me b/c the original poll clearly had no love lost for Biden either.