Presidential debate megathread (debate 1: June 27, 9pm EDT, CNN)

[wbrocks67]

While I agree with the notion that Biden definitely wants to frame/shake up the race as soon as possible given the dynamics, I don't necessarily believe it's entirely b/c he's behind - Trump has been going off about wanting even *MORE* debates - including one every month for the rest of the cycle. That doesn't scream "Trump is so confident!!" to me either

[wbrocks67]

Trump announced he challenged Biden to a 3rd debate on Fox News on October 2, we have yet to receive confirmation of this one. If confirmed though, that will mean Trump and Biden have successfully subverted the Commission on Presidential Debates, which definitely marks a new era in the period of presidential debates.

Trump is honestly dumb for accepting these without that being accepted. Unless of course his internals aren’t as good as the polls say and he wants an early debate as well because if he was really ahead in every swing state then why would he accept such an early debate .

Why do you mean by the bolded? What is "that"?

Trump's proposal for a third debate on Fox.

Oh right I see. Though I feel like Biden has to accept it otherwise Trump would have an easy out to turn down the other ones.

I mean, then that's on Trump then though. Trump will be seen as weak as backing out. Objectively, Biden was really smart with this and Trump played right into his hand. There's no reason to do a Fox debate at this point, or even a 3rd at all now that Trump has agreed to Biden's terms.

Honestly, the biggest winner may be all of us since it appears (need confirmation??) that under Biden's terms, there is no audience in any of these.

[wbrocks67]

I think Biden's team's view of this is that while they could definitely be doing better in polls, this race is going to be the longest of all time and people really need to realize sooner than later that this is the matchup whether they like it or not, so we might as well get on with this and start framing it around real life, and the debate forces Trump to be in the spotlight and to answer (or not answer) questions

In the end, the debate just solidifies the matchup and makes it real for most voters, especially the stakes. I think the Biden teams frustration up to this point is that there are some voters who are not tuned in at all and/or not taking it seriously enough

[wbrocks67]

I think what this shows is exactly how risk-averse Biden's campaign is.  Having fewer, earlier debates is fundamentally about limiting Biden's exposure to unscripted moments.  A candidate who is down in the polls should want to debate more, not less.

Then Trump must feel he is losing because that's what he wants. Not wanting to debate more comes from a place of strength, so Biden's campaign must feel okay about their position.

[wbrocks67]

Biden has the most gain and to lose from the debate. However it's a bit too early for it to make any lasting difference. At best he gets a small temporary spike like after the SOTU. I guess if he fumbles badly it could hurt him, but I don't expect that, in part because the "senile old fool" image is so baked in that it sets the bar incredibly low for a good performance to the general public. Like in 2000, all Bush had to do at the first debate was prove he had the most basic understanding of the issues at hand and he won, all Biden has to do is prove he can speak in complete sentences and he wins.

I would argue that both have a lot riding on it, but Trump really does. Trump has a very tiny and tenuous polling lead right now and it's literally hinging on polling saying infrequent voters are voting for him - any large scale television audience that shows that he's the same person from 2016 and 2020 shows all those Biden 2020 and infrequent voters that Trump is the wrong choice yet again.

Trump is also setting the bar for Biden extremely low once again saying he's the worst debater of all time on Truth Social

[wbrocks67]

It is a complete farce for democracy if RFK isn't included. I don't like the guy but with his polling and ballot standing he should be on.

He's not averaging 15%, he would not be included even by the official Commissions standards

[wbrocks67]

I think it's pretty clear Biden has an easier time looking good in this debate; similarly to SOTU as long as he projects a strong competent vibe it'll ease voter fears and boost his standing. Of course any gaffes might be damaging but that's the risk you have to take, not debating is a losing look for both.

Trump-wise I think an underrated factor is this potentially (probably?) will be his chance to make his case post NY trial conviction and win back some of the public opinion, if he can play it off. Like others in this thread have stated if Trump can stick to a message of "Were you better off in 2016-2019?" and try to lean more on the humor he can come off looking decent.

The good news for both candidates is that June is still an eternity away from the election in average American minds, and barring some immensely damning soundbite probably won't move the needle much for anyone besides donors and hyper political junkies.

That wouldn't work without a live audience to feed off of though.

[wbrocks67]

I think what this shows is exactly how risk-averse Biden's campaign is.  Having fewer, earlier debates is fundamentally about limiting Biden's exposure to unscripted moments.  A candidate who is down in the polls should want to debate more, not less.

Then Trump must feel he is losing because that's what he wants. Not wanting to debate more comes from a place of strength, so Biden's campaign must feel okay about their position.

The calculus is different for Biden vs Trump.  Trump's operating assumption is that Biden is unfit for the office, so debating should expose that to voters.  Biden wanting fewer/earlier debates is a tacit admission that he wants them to matter as little as possible by election day.

You're assuming what Trump thinks though in that scenario. Trump is not that smart, and he's not looking to do a debate *every month* just for that reason alone.

[wbrocks67]

RFK needs one more poll over 15% to qualify for the debate now.

And ballot access in states with at least 270 electoral votes.

Which seems extremely unlikely. Where's the other 3 polls for RFK over 15% though? Are we counting the entire cycle or is there a time frame? He's only been above 15 in one recently (Marquette out today?)

[wbrocks67]

RFK needs one more poll over 15% to qualify for the debate now.

And ballot access in states with at least 270 electoral votes.

Which seems extremely unlikely. Where's the other 3 polls for RFK over 15% though? Are we counting the entire cycle or is there a time frame? He's only been above 15 in one recently (Marquette out today?)

The window opened on March 13. From a quick look through the polling databases, it looks like he hit the mark in a Quinnipiac poll and a CNN poll from April.

I think he will hit the polling threshold but I agree that ballot access will probably keep him out in the end.

I think it'll depend on how quickly states approve his signatures. According to Wikipedia, he's currently at 223 electors counting states that he has submitted signatures to.

Most of those states have not solidifed their ballot yet and likely won't before June 30.

[wbrocks67]

Both bozos will back out if Kennedy's let it. Even if Kennedy sucks, both parties are bipartisan in their efforts to never let a third candidate participate.

Actually, Trump's already said he's fine with it:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/16/us/politics/trump-debates-rfk-jr.html

So I guess there's a scenario where we get a repeat of the 1980 Reagan-Anderson Debate.

Why would anyone trust anything that man says?

[wbrocks67]

Odd- CNN plans to run commercials during the debate

https://twitter.com/bristei/status/1796259556601061659

[wbrocks67]

I don't know why people expect this to be cancelled, why would it be? Either one backing out would look awful for them.

I'm more interested if the rules will hold - i.e., no audience, mics being cut off, etc.

And given that this is 3 weeks, there's no way RFK is making this debate.

[wbrocks67]

I don't know why people expect this to be cancelled, why would it be? Either one backing out would look awful for them.

I'm more interested if the rules will hold - i.e., no audience, mics being cut off, etc.

And given that this is 3 weeks, there's no way RFK is making this debate.

It wouldn't be a big deal if Trump backed out.

Yes it would be, and it would be a coup for the Biden campaign. He could easily then pull an Ossoff and either stand there alone, or have a last minute town hall scheduled.

I'm so exhausted at people thinking every single bad decision Trump will or can make is somehow not affecting him.

[wbrocks67]

Well the mics are going to be off when it's not their turn to speak so I guess there won't be interrupting.

Yeah, which is actually good for Trump.

It won't surprise me if Trump tries to interrupt and shout over Biden even when his mic is off.

This. Though I'm still not 100% sure we'll see the mic cutting. Has anyone actually confirmed this? I know CNN agreed to the no audience, but did they also confirm the mic situation?

[wbrocks67]

I think having the debates earlier in the year helps Trump, actually.

The public memory is short. Unless he absolutely BOMBS the first debate, I think most will consider it a draw and it won't be in the public memory by November.

The second and final debate is September 10th. That's almost 2 months out from the election. Again, unless Trump bombs this one, has a Gerald Ford "there is no domination of Eastern Europe" moment, I don't think it'll have any major impact. For either, really

"no matter what happens with the debates, it helps Trump actually"

god i am EXHAUSTED

[wbrocks67]

I think having the debates earlier in the year helps Trump, actually.

The public memory is short. Unless he absolutely BOMBS the first debate, I think most will consider it a draw and it won't be in the public memory by November.

The second and final debate is September 10th. That's almost 2 months out from the election. Again, unless Trump bombs this one, has a Gerald Ford "there is no domination of Eastern Europe" moment, I don't think it'll have any major impact. For either, really

"no matter what happens with the debates, it helps Trump actually"

god i am EXHAUSTED

I'm just stating my opinion.

Usually debates are held in late September - mid October, when the performance of such would perhaps swing the election. It's been commonly suggested that the second debate in 1976 cost Gerry Ford the election and that if that election were held just two weeks later, he would've won. Al Gore may have lost 2000 in part because in the debates he came off stiff and pushy compared to Bush.

But these are different. We're having our first debate in the middle of summer. MONTHS out from the election. The second is in mid September, almost two months out.

I just don't see a downside for Trump with them unless he makes a massive gaffe that doesn't resound well. The bar is very very very low for both he and Biden. Trump needs to not make a racial slur and Biden needs to not fall asleep or even seem with it for either to have 'done well'

Trump lost every debate in 2020. And 2016. There absolutely is a downside for him. It's not just "not making a racial slur" - the point of having the early debate, which you seem to be missing,is to solidfy the matchup for those that are disengaged. It's to set the stage and let everyone know - even in June - this is real. The debates aren't going to be "make or break" for anyone unless there is some huge issue, but it certainly can hurt/help and give Biden momentum if he's able to turn in a good appearance, helping galvanize the voters he needs to return to the fold.

Debates are never make or break. The 2020 1st debate absolutely hurt Trump. But it was never going to cost him the race - they rarely ever do.

[wbrocks67]

I still would be very surprised to see Trump drop out. He'll find any way to rationalize it, but it would not be helpful to him.

[wbrocks67]

I don't know why people expect this to be cancelled, why would it be?

https://independentpoliticalreport.com/2024/06/federal-election-commission-reportedly-confirms-presumptive-nominee-not-in-debate-regulations/

The Federal Election Commission reportedly confirmed that the designation “presumptive nominee,” which has been used by CNN to justify exclusive debate invitations to Presidents Joe Biden and Donald Trump ahead of their respective party’s national conventions, is not officially recognized by FEC regulations.

According to a report published by KITV4 Island News this week, an FEC spokesperson confirmed that the designation “presumptive nominee,” which CNN has cited to justify its direct inclusion of Biden and Trump in a debate set for later this month, is “not in the FEC’s debate regulation.” However, the FEC spokesperson said they could not elaborate further on the discrepancy due to a complaint filed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. last month over CNN’s adoption of the debate criteria. KITV4 Island News also spoke with Commission on Presidential Debates co-chairman Frank Fahrenkopf and several Secretaries of State.

Kennedy filed a formal complaint with the FEC on May 28, claiming that CNN, in conjunction with the campaigns of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, engaged in flagrant violations of the Federal Election Campaign Act. In his complaint, Kennedy argues that the debate criteria used are neither objective nor pre-established, and that the requirement for candidates to be on enough ballots to win 270 electoral votes by June is not realistic until after a party holds its national convention. Failing to use objective criteria while automatically including Biden and Trump as “presumptive nominees” would mean the debate constitutes a campaign contribution, subject to strict donation limits.

In a press release on Tuesday, the Kennedy campaign reiterated its call for CNN to apply its criteria objectively, stating that a failure to do so amounts to a willful violation of campaign finance law, and that the FEC should prevent the debate from taking place until an agreement can be reached that complies with the Federal Election Campaign Act.

“Now, with FEC’s recent statement, it appears beyond doubt the debate will, absent Kennedy’s participation, violate campaign finance laws and that CNN and its staff are knowingly and willfully violating these laws,” the campaign stated. “As explained in the FEC complaint, ‘By demanding our campaign meet different criteria to participate in the debate than Presidents Biden and Trump, CNN’s debate violates FEC law and is a large prohibited corporate contribution to both the Biden and Trump campaigns.'”

This reads to me like nothing but sour grapes from the Kennedy campaign. That won't be a reason for the debate to not happen.

[wbrocks67]

Curious if 538 under Morris will do something similar to this:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-debate-poll/

[wbrocks67]

RFK Jr. won’t meet CNN debate requirement for ballot access

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/18/rfk-jr-presidential-debate/

Wow, what a shock.  🙄

Overall, his presence in the campaign entirely seems to be decreasing.

Yep, his campaign really seems to be tanking the last month or so, but this was also entirely inevitable

[wbrocks67]

Trump won the coin toss. He'll giving closing statements last.

Trump will be on left side and Biden on right side.

[wbrocks67]

Trump won the coin toss. He'll giving closing statements last.

Trump will be on left side and Biden on right side.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/20/politics/cnn-debate-closing-statements-podiums/index.html

Trump LOST the coin toss. Biden used winning the coin toss to choose between either going first/last for closing statement OR being left or right of screen. The Biden campaign choose to make the screen side choice and choose right.

Does anybody have a guess or insight why? Is there something psychologically more appealing to viewers about the right? Is it a superstition?

Knew I shouldn't have listened to Andrea Mitchell lol

[wbrocks67]

Only thing I can think of in terms of them being okay with biden going first and Trump going second with closing is that they imagine by 10:55p, people are likely tuning out in droves by the second as the night goes on, so even if Biden does his statement at 10:55 and Trump at 10:57, Biden will likely get more eyeballs since he's a smidge earlier. I don't imagine it would be that significant but people will drift off the later it gets. That's the only thing I can really think of.  Or maybe they want Biden to go first so he can try and kick Trump off his "game" so to speak and make him want to respond to something in his closing statements instead of doing a rehearsed bit. Idk

[wbrocks67]

Odd choice. Biden should have went last.

After thinking about it, I'm thinking they want Biden first so that Trump gets angry at what Biden says as his closing statement and the hope from Biden's team is that Trump is caught a bit flatfooted, wanting to respond to Biden instead of focusing on what his actual closing message is. That's my best guess