Fox: Biden +2 H2H, +1 vs field

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is gonna win anyways

[SnowLabrador]

Good, but not good enough.

[dspNY]

Good, but not good enough.

This poll might move the 538 average from Trump +2.3 before Biden's State of the Union to even, with 4 1/2 months to go. That's a good trendline for Team Blue. Still work to do of course...

[Progressive Pessimist]

Hmm...maybe it's taken three weeks for the conviction to sink in?

Still suggests a tied race, but I'll take that over any Trump lead.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Fox has Biden ahead it's game over

[Minnesota Mike]

Individual candidate trends are interesting. Percentages starting with the oldest Fox poll.

Biden: 35, 37, 38, 38, 40, 43.
Trump: 41, 41, 41, 43, 43, 42.
Kennedy: 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10.

Biden gradual rise. Trump flat. Kennedy gradual decline.

[ajc0918]

The Biden campaign needed this poll. It doesn't change anything but it will quiet the doomers for a day or two.

[axiomsofdominion]

The Biden campaign needed this poll. It doesn't change anything but it will quiet the doomers for a day or two.

You underestimate the hustle of the Atlas doomers, my friend.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Biden campaign needed this poll. It doesn't change anything but it will quiet the doomers for a day or two.

The Doomers are just so silly they really think Biden is gonna lose

[dspNY]

The most important data point in this poll is 44% of the respondents feeling optimistic about the economy, which is 9 points higher than the previous Fox poll. If Biden can get this number to 50% or higher he'll be a strong favorite for reelection

[axiomsofdominion]

The most important data point in this poll is 44% of the respondents feeling optimistic about the economy, which is 9 points higher than the previous Fox poll. If Biden can get this number to 50% or higher he'll be a strong favorite for reelection

Even normie favored economic indicators are starting to climb, rather than just the out of touch finance bro stuff that has been looking good previously. So Biden is in a great spot.

[GAinDC]

Biden’s approval also holds steady at 45%

[Mehmentum]

The most important data point in this poll is 44% of the respondents feeling optimistic about the economy, which is 9 points higher than the previous Fox poll. If Biden can get this number to 50% or higher he'll be a strong favorite for reelection

Yeah, at that point the only thing holding him back would  be the age problem, which strong debate performance/DNC speech would dispel.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The most important data point in this poll is 44% of the respondents feeling optimistic about the economy, which is 9 points higher than the previous Fox poll. If Biden can get this number to 50% or higher he'll be a strong favorite for reelection

Yeah, at that point the only thing holding him back would  be the age problem, which strong debate performance/DNC speech would dispel.

For a little while, at least. Once Trump truly becomes the obviously lesser choice will Biden be in a more comfortable position. Maybe that will finally happen? We'll see.

[dspNY]

Could someone post the demographic crosstabs? I'm wondering if nonwhite voters are starting to come back to the Democrats. Nate Cohn said that most of the movement away from Trump due to his felony conviction would be among young, nonwhite voters who were Trump-curious

[GeorgiaModerate]

Could someone post the demographic crosstabs? I'm wondering if nonwhite voters are starting to come back to the Democrats. Nate Cohn said that most of the movement away from Trump due to his felony conviction would be among young, nonwhite voters who were Trump-curious

I don't have time to do that right now, but the crosstabs are here for anyone who wants to dig them out:

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/06/Fox_June-14-17-2024_National_Cross-Tabs_June-19-Release.pdf

[Tekken_Guy]

Could someone post the demographic crosstabs? I'm wondering if nonwhite voters are starting to come back to the Democrats. Nate Cohn said that most of the movement away from Trump due to his felony conviction would be among young, nonwhite voters who were Trump-curious

I don't have time to do that right now, but the crosstabs are here for anyone who wants to dig them out:

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/06/Fox_June-14-17-2024_National_Cross-Tabs_June-19-Release.pdf

No. Trump still does well with minorities. Biden leads because of strength with whites.

But the 2020 voter gap has all but disappeared. Biden’s 95-4 with his 2020 voters compared to 96-3 for Trump.

[dspNY]

Could someone post the demographic crosstabs? I'm wondering if nonwhite voters are starting to come back to the Democrats. Nate Cohn said that most of the movement away from Trump due to his felony conviction would be among young, nonwhite voters who were Trump-curious

I don't have time to do that right now, but the crosstabs are here for anyone who wants to dig them out:

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/06/Fox_June-14-17-2024_National_Cross-Tabs_June-19-Release.pdf

Thanks, I'll post some other numbers here.

Approvals: Biden 44/56, Trump 43/57. 44% strongly disapprove of Biden, 49% strongly disapprove of Trump. RFK Jr is at 40/51 (91% name recognition). Harris is at 41/57 with 44% strong disapproval.

Trump leads by 3 (41/38) with voters 35 and younger, but Biden leads by 13 (54/41) with seniors. Virtually no seniors are looking at RFK Jr (3%). Most of RFK Jr's support is coming from younger voters. I don't think Trump leads with younger voters, but I also don't think Biden leads by 13 among seniors (unless seniors are sussing out that Trump has dementia, since they are better at figuring that out than younger folks).

In the question that includes the whole field, white voters go to Trump by 6 (46/40). Black voters go to Biden by 40 (62/22). Hispanic voters go to Biden by 5 (45/40). There is a 28 point gender gap.

Only 55% of voters consider the upcoming debate performances important.

Only 32% of voters consider the Israel/Hamas war an extremely important factor in their vote, far below other issues such as the economy, protecting democracy, immigration, and abortion. Healthcare is an underrated important issue that hasn't been discussed. More Americans consider healthcare a very important factor in their vote than abortion. President Biden would be well advised to campaign on Trump taking away Obamacare.

Trump leads 53/44 on immigration. This is a substantial improvement for Biden. Most other polls have Trump leading by far more than this. Maybe Biden's executive order on immigration helped him here.

Trump leads 51/46 on the economy. This is also a substantial improvement for Biden. If replicated in other polls, Biden should pull into a consistent lead.

Biden leads 55/42 on abortion.

Trump leads 49/45 on the Israel/Hamas war.

Biden leads 58/38 on climate change, but climate change was not considered that important an issue, unfortunately.

Biden leads 54/44 on healthcare.

Trump leads 50/48 on guns.

Biden leads 52/46 on protecting American democracy.

Biden leads 50/47 on "stability and normalcy." This could be very important as the campaign enters full gear. The thesis of the Biden campaign is that Trump is unstable, so if Trump is exposed more as an unstable figure, Biden benefits.

Biden leads 49/47 on "standing up to elite interests."

Trump leads 53/43 on "a strong leader." This is probably due to how Biden physically presents himself (Biden is obviously old). Trump also leads 51/44 on "mental soundness," although I expect that to move in Biden's direction after the first debate.

Biden leads 51/45 on "cares about people like you."

Biden leads 52/42 on trustworthiness.

Among those polled, 50% expect Trump to win the debate, 45% expect Biden to win.

[Eraserhead]

Wow, not bad. Not amazing but definitely not bad.

Now he needs to start polling better in the swing states...

[Eraserhead]

Yet they have Virginia as tied LOL

Yeah hard to square up this with their state polling

You absolutely melted like a candle at those fox state polls, accusing them of being insane, inaccurate, and worthy of being tossed in the trash.

Yet now you are taking a complete opposite stance on this national poll.

Why?

Do you really have to ask?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Yet they have Virginia as tied LOL

Yeah hard to square up this with their state polling

You absolutely melted like a candle at those fox state polls, accusing them of being insane, inaccurate, and worthy of being tossed in the trash.

Yet now you are taking a complete opposite stance on this national poll.

Why?

Do you really have to ask?

Why are you accepting the premise of that question whether than looking at the actual post in question?

[Lief 🗽]

Very strong poll for the President. Thank you!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

People really look at polls closely, you take them with a grain of salt until we get real votes on Eday

Especially NV/AZ that's why I haven't moved my Eday map and on Eday I will probably push it up more D not more R because I am rooting for Ds not Rs

[Liberalrocks]

Good, but not good enough.

But then again nothing would be good enough for you, right? If it was Biden plus 7 you would still be dooming I’m sure. Not saying Trump cant win or that its not tight, but for once can you please be positive.

[Rand]

I was headed to PornHub, then I saw this poll and stayed on the page for the next 3 1/2 minutes.