Special Election megathread (6/25: CO-4)

[Spectator]

So Douglas County never posted returns by party? Super annoying.

[walleye26]

So Douglas County never posted returns by party? Super annoying.

I kept furiously looking but I couldn’t find it either.

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

So, very, very, early, but this is happening right now:

Greg Lopez
Republican   476   +88.5%88.5%   
Hannah Goodman
Libertarian   25   +4.6%4.6   
Trisha Calvarese
Democrat   24   +4.5%4.5   
Frank Atwood
Other   13   +2.4%2.4   

[SnowLabrador]

A GOP overperformance? Wouldn't have expected that.

[The Mikado]

So, very, very, early, but this is happening right now:

Greg Lopez
Republican   476   +88.5%88.5%   
Hannah Goodman
Libertarian   25   +4.6%4.6   
Trisha Calvarese
Democrat   24   +4.5%4.5   
Frank Atwood
Other   13   +2.4%2.4   

Now

Greg Lopez
Republican   3,521   +59.0%59.0%   
Trisha Calvarese
Democrat   2,027   +33.9%33.9   
Hannah Goodman
Libertarian   315   +5.3%5.3   
Frank Atwood
Other   108   +1.8%1.8   
Total reported
5,971      

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

A GOP overperformance? Wouldn't have expected that.

Only one county was in and it was one of the West Kansas ones, sit down

[kwabbit]

A GOP overperformance? Wouldn't have expected that.

Only one county was in and it was one of the West Kansas ones, sit down

All 3 in have similar overperformances, including Arapahoe. I think there's just an extreme turnout dynamic. I doubt Lopez is getting any persuasion.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

A GOP overperformance? Wouldn't have expected that.

Only one county was in and it was one of the West Kansas ones, sit down

All 3 in have similar overperformances, including Arapahoe. I think there's just an extreme turnout dynamic. I doubt Lopez is getting any persuasion.

Is the Arapahoe section an overperformance? He's up 7. How much did Trump win the Arapahoe portion of this district? Keep in mind it's only the blood red rural eastern half of Arapahoe in this district, so I suspect Trump would have won it by more

[Oryxslayer]

GOP Hold Douglas. In the end no surprise.

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

This one is over:

Greg Lopez
Republican 58,793 +54.5%54.5%
Trisha Calvarese
Democrat 41,306 +38.3%38.3
Hannah Goodman
Libertarian 5,622 +5.2%5.2
Frank Atwood
Other 2,088 +1.9%1.9

[SnowLabrador]

Oh wow, Colorado is counting fast. At this rate it looks like the GOP will overperform, possibly by quite a lot.

[The Mikado]

Latest results from just now
66% OF VOTES IN
Special Election
Candidate   Party   Votes   PercentPct.   Chart showing percent
Greg Lopez
Republican   58,793   +54.5%54.5%   
Trisha Calvarese
Democrat   41,306   +38.3%38.3   
Hannah Goodman
Libertarian   5,622   +5.2%5.2   
Frank Atwood
Other   2,088   +1.9%1.9   
Total reported
107,809      




Lopez up 16 in a Trump +19 seat. Probably going to end up similar to 2020 Presidential, maybe a tiny Dem overperformance.

[SnowLabrador]

Latest results from just now
66% OF VOTES IN
Special Election
Candidate   Party   Votes   PercentPct.   Chart showing percent
Greg Lopez
Republican   58,793   +54.5%54.5%   
Trisha Calvarese
Democrat   41,306   +38.3%38.3   
Hannah Goodman
Libertarian   5,622   +5.2%5.2   
Frank Atwood
Other   2,088   +1.9%1.9   
Total reported
107,809      




Lopez up 16 in a Trump +19 seat. Probably going to end up similar to 2020 Presidential, maybe a tiny Dem overperformance.

What's left is overwhelmingly rural. How has the downballot environment shifted so much in just two short weeks?

[kwabbit]

A GOP overperformance? Wouldn't have expected that.

Only one county was in and it was one of the West Kansas ones, sit down

All 3 in have similar overperformances, including Arapahoe. I think there's just an extreme turnout dynamic. I doubt Lopez is getting any persuasion.

Is the Arapahoe section an overperformance? He's up 7. How much did Trump win the Arapahoe portion of this district? Keep in mind it's only the blood red rural eastern half of Arapahoe in this district, so I suspect Trump would have won it by more

Biden won it by 2. It contains the eastern blood red part along with some Dem suburbs. The Adams portion is all blood red. Lopez beat 2020 by 6 points in Douglas now too. It's just going to be a GOP overperformance with some caveats.

[SnowLabrador]

A GOP overperformance? Wouldn't have expected that.

Only one county was in and it was one of the West Kansas ones, sit down

All 3 in have similar overperformances, including Arapahoe. I think there's just an extreme turnout dynamic. I doubt Lopez is getting any persuasion.

Is the Arapahoe section an overperformance? He's up 7. How much did Trump win the Arapahoe portion of this district? Keep in mind it's only the blood red rural eastern half of Arapahoe in this district, so I suspect Trump would have won it by more

Biden won it by 2. It contains the eastern blood red part along with some Dem suburbs. The Adams portion is all blood red. Lopez beat 2020 by 6 points in Douglas now too. It's just going to be a GOP overperformance with some caveats.

I'd be surprised if Lopez finishes under 60. Given that this was higher-turnout than the OH-06 special two weeks ago, it probably means more.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

A GOP overperformance? Wouldn't have expected that.

Only one county was in and it was one of the West Kansas ones, sit down

All 3 in have similar overperformances, including Arapahoe. I think there's just an extreme turnout dynamic. I doubt Lopez is getting any persuasion.

Is the Arapahoe section an overperformance? He's up 7. How much did Trump win the Arapahoe portion of this district? Keep in mind it's only the blood red rural eastern half of Arapahoe in this district, so I suspect Trump would have won it by more

Biden won it by 2. It contains the eastern blood red part along with some Dem suburbs. The Adams portion is all blood red. Lopez beat 2020 by 6 points in Douglas now too. It's just going to be a GOP overperformance with some caveats.

I'd be surprised if Lopez finishes under 60. Given that this was higher-turnout than the OH-06 special two weeks ago, it probably means more.

low-effort doomerism

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A GOP overperformance? Wouldn't have expected that.

Only one county was in and it was one of the West Kansas ones, sit down

All 3 in have similar overperformances, including Arapahoe. I think there's just an extreme turnout dynamic. I doubt Lopez is getting any persuasion.

Is the Arapahoe section an overperformance? He's up 7. How much did Trump win the Arapahoe portion of this district? Keep in mind it's only the blood red rural eastern half of Arapahoe in this district, so I suspect Trump would have won it by more

Biden won it by 2. It contains the eastern blood red part along with some Dem suburbs. The Adams portion is all blood red. Lopez beat 2020 by 6 points in Douglas now too. It's just going to be a GOP overperformance with some caveats.

I'd be surprised if Lopez finishes under 60. Given that this was higher-turnout than the OH-06 special two weeks ago, it probably means more.

low-effort doomerism

That's literally all he posts. The best thing to do is just ignore him.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The GOP overperformed in Douglas county? In a special too?

[Brittain33]

The GOP overperformed in Douglas county? In a special too?

The GOP did the same as Trump in 2020 but the margin over the Dem increased because the third parties (mainly Libertarian) did better.

[Matty]

Looks like a pretty healthy gop over performance of 6-8 points tonight

Wonder why?

Is it because everyone gets a mail ballot?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Looks like a pretty healthy gop over performance of 6-8 points tonight

Wonder why?

Is it because everyone gets a mail ballot?

I think it's because of high turnout

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Looks like a pretty healthy gop over performance of 6-8 points tonight

Wonder why?

Is it because everyone gets a mail ballot?

I think it's because of high turnout

Another underrated reason...this is a district that has moved towards Democrats in the Trump era, but is ancestrally even stronger Republican (esp Douglas County) and thus the kind of place you would expect downballot lag for Republicans. OH-06 is ancestrally Democratic and while there were turnout dynamics there, I think downballot lag may have been in play there a bit too.

Also, the R primary here for the general was more high-stakes, which likely fueled turnout.

But overall I wouldn't even call this a real overperformance. It's pretty much the same as 2020 president, just a tad bit more R.

[SaintStan86]

When comparing CO-04 to OH-06, I think there are some takeaways in each district that can foretell the future, especially after November the 5th regardless of who the President will be, and with some odes to two iconic ABC sitcoms.

With OH-06, you have a lot of ancestrally Dem working class areas that largely do not subscribe to conservative economic viewpoints, but largely went Republican because the Democrats abandoned the working class wholesale. These are your typical Roseanne voters, your lunch pail Democrats who are Obama-Trump "pivot voters" and will be voting for Sherrod Brown in November, but who voted for Kripchak despite the race essentially being Rulli's to lose.

It is also important to note that Rulli's underperformance relative to Trump was much smaller in the more urban Youngstown portion of his district (where you have a lot of suburban areas like Canfield and Boardman) that he served in the Ohio Senate as opposed to the more downriver rural areas that moved strongly towards Kripchak. Give or take, it is a special election and the result will likely be different, but while there are a number of voters in OH-06 that won't be going back to the Democrats soon, they aren't necessarily becoming Republicans either and likely would be less inclined to favor a Republican in 2028, whether it's DeSantis or even favorite son Vance. Which is why, should DeSantis- and Rand Paul-style Freedom Caucus Republicans more interested in the Constitution and the Club for Growth than the "culture wars" gain the upper hand in Republican primaries in 2026 and 2028, these areas might or might not be in danger of trending leftward depending on the direction of the Dems (do we go more Roseanne, more AOC, or more (insert name of random soccer mom who has Joy Behar's brain infused into her veins via in IV)?

Likewise, in CO-04, you have a sizable number of areas that shifted Dem in the Trump era - particularly in suburban Douglas County to the southwest and parts of Larimer and Weld counties to the northwest. This is where you have your typical real-life Modern Family voters with the aspirational but goofy parents and their two or three kids, is where the growth is happening in the state, and which trended a lot towards the Dems because they were turned off by Trump's "culture war" preening because his mouth was his own worst enemy and because he and the Republican Congress couldn't deliver on the principles that mattered to a lot of suburban areas where they expect whatever hard-earned money they didn't send to the tax man to not be wasted on Republicans "doing nothing" (in Chip Roy's words). On top of depressed (mostly young) suburban voters who otherwise would be drawn to the GOP like they were in the 2010 and 2014 midterms before that golden escalator ride, you also have a lot of (mostly older) Liz Cheney fanboys who yearn for the days of when Bill Kristol and the Neocon Playboys ruled the roost in the GOP and are fed a pureed meal of Morning Joe every morning, especially unsurprising considering this district partially borders Wyoming. And that's not even counting the tech bros and California transplants who vote Republican on economics but are as socially liberal as you'd expect from many of them, overflowing from the nearby CO-06...which adds more intrigue to these growing and rather perilous western ends of the district, for which the beet, beet red rural eastern Colorado portion is largely irrelevant.

What is interesting here is that given Greg Lopez's numbers here tonight, whatever Dem overperformance exists here barely registers, and if these numbers hold up, whatever feelings a lot of voters in the two western prongs of the CO-04 barbeque tong may now be somehow muted now that COVID has faded into oblivion and Biden's economic package isn't exactly all it's cracked up to be in the voters' minds. Trisha Calvarese couldn't even clear the bar earlier tonight against Ike McCorkle's well-funded blue machine, and the bigger question may be "Can Trisha unite Team Blue in November?", regardless of whether or not Boebert can unite the 50-60 percent of voters who didn't vote for her tonight in the primary. May as well bring up the "Roe card" and the "democracy card" to whip Trump skeptics back in line for them...

It may also be dependent on what direction the Colorado GOP goes in after November the 5th, especially now that the embattled Dave Williams just got blown out next door in CO-05 in an election where Trump's proven theory - halfway proven in Virginia two weeks ago - may now be in jeopardy given Jeff Crank blew out Williams (and also given that Mark Burns barely got edged out in a South Carolina district many, many miles away), since it's obvious Colorado has the worst state GOP in the country right now. By that logic, and CO-03 also soundly rejecting Ron Hanks despite the Democrats' best efforts to buy that election, there just may be hope in Colorado this year for the GOP, if not after the Trump era is over for which the GOP hopes in the suburbs might be a little better not just in Douglas, but also in the core counties of Arapahoe, Adams and Jefferson that haven't exactly been competitive for Republicans for almost a decade if not since the halcyon days of Bill Owens, Tom Tancredo and Bob Beauprez. (The rural remainder of CO-04 will be just fine, as it's as monopolistically Republican as it's ever been all these decades.)

And for the record, I still think the way the Colorado GOP treated Eli Bremer with the nomination process in 2022 was absolute horse****, and that Bremer would have been a fine representative for CO-05.

[Tekken_Guy]

When comparing CO-04 to OH-06, I think there are some takeaways in each district that can foretell the future, especially after November the 5th regardless of who the President will be, and with some odes to two iconic ABC sitcoms.

With OH-06, you have a lot of ancestrally Dem working class areas that largely do not subscribe to conservative economic viewpoints, but largely went Republican because the Democrats abandoned the working class wholesale. These are your typical Roseanne voters, your lunch pail Democrats who are Obama-Trump "pivot voters" and will be voting for Sherrod Brown in November, but who voted for Kripchak despite the race essentially being Rulli's to lose.

It is also important to note that Rulli's underperformance relative to Trump was much smaller in the more urban Youngstown portion of his district (where you have a lot of suburban areas like Canfield and Boardman) that he served in the Ohio Senate as opposed to the more downriver rural areas that moved strongly towards Kripchak. Give or take, it is a special election and the result will likely be different, but while there are a number of voters in OH-06 that won't be going back to the Democrats soon, they aren't necessarily becoming Republicans either and likely would be less inclined to favor a Republican in 2028, whether it's DeSantis or even favorite son Vance. Which is why, should DeSantis- and Rand Paul-style Freedom Caucus Republicans more interested in the Constitution and the Club for Growth than the "culture wars" gain the upper hand in Republican primaries in 2026 and 2028, these areas might or might not be in danger of trending leftward depending on the direction of the Dems (do we go more Roseanne, more AOC, or more (insert name of random soccer mom who has Joy Behar's brain infused into her veins via in IV)?

Likewise, in CO-04, you have a sizable number of areas that shifted Dem in the Trump era - particularly in suburban Douglas County to the southwest and parts of Larimer and Weld counties to the northwest. This is where you have your typical real-life Modern Family voters with the aspirational but goofy parents and their two or three kids, is where the growth is happening in the state, and which trended a lot towards the Dems because they were turned off by Trump's "culture war" preening because his mouth was his own worst enemy and because he and the Republican Congress couldn't deliver on the principles that mattered to a lot of suburban areas where they expect whatever hard-earned money they didn't send to the tax man to not be wasted on Republicans "doing nothing" (in Chip Roy's words). On top of depressed (mostly young) suburban voters who otherwise would be drawn to the GOP like they were in the 2010 and 2014 midterms before that golden escalator ride, you also have a lot of (mostly older) Liz Cheney fanboys who yearn for the days of when Bill Kristol and the Neocon Playboys ruled the roost in the GOP and are fed a pureed meal of Morning Joe every morning, especially unsurprising considering this district partially borders Wyoming. And that's not even counting the tech bros and California transplants who vote Republican on economics but are as socially liberal as you'd expect from many of them, overflowing from the nearby CO-06...which adds more intrigue to these growing and rather perilous western ends of the district, for which the beet, beet red rural eastern Colorado portion is largely irrelevant.

What is interesting here is that given Greg Lopez's numbers here tonight, whatever Dem overperformance exists here barely registers, and if these numbers hold up, whatever feelings a lot of voters in the two western prongs of the CO-04 barbeque tong may now be somehow muted now that COVID has faded into oblivion and Biden's economic package isn't exactly all it's cracked up to be in the voters' minds. Trisha Calvarese couldn't even clear the bar earlier tonight against Ike McCorkle's well-funded blue machine, and the bigger question may be "Can Trisha unite Team Blue in November?", regardless of whether or not Boebert can unite the 50-60 percent of voters who didn't vote for her tonight in the primary. May as well bring up the "Roe card" and the "democracy card" to whip Trump skeptics back in line for them...

It may also be dependent on what direction the Colorado GOP goes in after November the 5th, especially now that the embattled Dave Williams just got blown out next door in CO-05 in an election where Trump's proven theory - halfway proven in Virginia two weeks ago - may now be in jeopardy given Jeff Crank blew out Williams (and also given that Mark Burns barely got edged out in a South Carolina district many, many miles away), since it's obvious Colorado has the worst state GOP in the country right now. By that logic, and CO-03 also soundly rejecting Ron Hanks despite the Democrats' best efforts to buy that election, there just may be hope in Colorado this year for the GOP, if not after the Trump era is over for which the GOP hopes in the suburbs might be a little better not just in Douglas, but also in the core counties of Arapahoe, Adams and Jefferson that haven't exactly been competitive for Republicans for almost a decade if not since the halcyon days of Bill Owens, Tom Tancredo and Bob Beauprez. (The rural remainder of CO-04 will be just fine, as it's as monopolistically Republican as it's ever been all these decades.)

And for the record, I still think the way the Colorado GOP treated Eli Bremer with the nomination process in 2022 was absolute horse****, and that Bremer would have been a fine representative for CO-05.

I think Boebert will be fine in 2024. Her bigger challenge will be in 2026, if the post-Williams COGOP tries to find a single candidate to unite the 56% of GOP primary voters who rejected her tonight.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm not going to pretend that I'm not disappointed about the lack of a noticeable Democrat overperformance here, but I hardly held my breath for one, on the other hand. Those Denver suburb parts of the district are evidently redder than I thought they were.

I draw two takeaways from this special:

1. Republicans really should embrace vote-by-mail and early voting more if they knew what was good for them. Wait! I mean, don't!

2. This district will possibly be the only Republican district in the state at some point in the future. And unfortunately that will be with Boebert being in this seat, possibly for life, or at least until an aggressive gerrymander that can make all of Colorado's districts safe D.