United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[DL]

I feel the need to comment on this. Mostly to say that many of these have subcategories that would greatly differ from one another in terms of voting intentions.

How do teetotalers vote?

[WD]

I feel the need to comment on this. Mostly to say that many of these have subcategories that would greatly differ from one another in terms of voting intentions.

How do teetotalers vote?

This is Britain.

[adma]

I'd imagine Irn-Bru being big Labour.  Just saying.  (Lucozade might be more for young Reform types)

[JimJamUK]

(Lucozade might be more for young Reform types)

It used to be very popular among diabetics before the sugar tax came in. Im not really sure who drinks it these days (mostly young people so not Tories or really Reform?).

[Joe Republic]

A number of Labour officials in Islington North have resigned (or "expect to be expelled") in order to campaign for Corbyn.

[beesley]

Another day Sunak spent entirely within his seat by the way.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Reform have officially disendorsed three candidates for racist and otherwise bigoted remarks: their candidates for Barnsley North, Derbyshire Dales, and Southend East and Rochford.

[JimJamUK]

Reform have officially disendorsed three candidates for racist and otherwise bigoted remarks: their candidates for Barnsley North, Derbyshire Dales, and Southend East and Rochford.

The seat which had the highest Reform (Brexit Party) in 2019…

[adma]

(Lucozade might be more for young Reform types)

It used to be very popular among diabetics before the sugar tax came in. Im not really sure who drinks it these days (mostly young people so not Tories or really Reform?).

.

I'm operating under the assumption that Reform is inherently the likeliest vote-park for the UK version of the Maxime Bernier bro'dude crowd.

[YL]

Reform have officially disendorsed three candidates for racist and otherwise bigoted remarks: their candidates for Barnsley North, Derbyshire Dales, and Southend East and Rochford.

Though according to the Guardian a spokesperson said that people should still vote for them if they want to register support for the party!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Reform have officially disendorsed three candidates for racist and otherwise bigoted remarks: their candidates for Barnsley North, Derbyshire Dales, and Southend East and Rochford.

Though according to the Guardian a spokesperson said that people should still vote for them if they want to register support for the party!

Bizarre. If they were running the usual sorts of ground games in these constituencies then these would now cease to be resourced, but I'm not sure if they're actually doing those anywhere other than in the places where senior party figures are running - as opposed to e.g. placard-waving in town centres and so on.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There are, once again, a few more polls: Deltapoll Lab 42, Con 21, Ref 16, LDem 11, Greens 4, SNP 3; Savanta* Lab 38, Con 21, Ref 14, LDem 11, Greens 6, SNP 2, Opinium Lab 40, Con 20, Ref 17, LDem 13, Greens 6, SNP 3; YouGov Lab 37, Con 20, Ref 17, LDem 13, Greens 7 SNP 3

_{*UK not GB figures.}

[MillennialModerate]

I get there are dozens of safe Labour seats the Conservatives don’t play in but my god - Reform is only a few points short of the Tories and is gonna win, AT MOST 4 seats? Yikes.

Now that I think of it - the entertainment value of Farage in the House of Commons makes me want to see him win. Wouldn’t mind seeing the Greens win Bristol Central either.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nothing so unusual. UKIP polled 13% in 2015 and took precisely one seat. The electoral system is not very kind towards parties with relatively low ceilings - even in their better areas - on their support.

[WD]

Sunday Times endorses Labour

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Nothing so unusual. UKIP polled 13% in 2015 and took precisely one seat. The electoral system is not very kind towards parties with relatively low ceilings - even in their better areas - on their support.

The electoral system rewards parties with more spread out vote shares once you get high enough relative to other parties, and tends to punish them otherwise.
2015 is a good example of this. Compare the Lib Dems and the SNP's vote share vs seats.

[jimros]

A number of Labour officials in Islington North have resigned (or "expect to be expelled") in order to campaign for Corbyn.

Why would they do this less than a week before the election? Wouldn't it have more impact if they started participating in the campaign earlier?

[Sorenroy]

It feels like the Economist has just completely given up when it comes to their election forecast/model, which is especially disappointing because it's one of the top links to show up and one of the most reputable news organizations with a forecast available. There seems to be a total failure to account for anything besides a Conservative opposition, which means that their numbers differ substantially from what everything else seems to be indicating at this point:

It seems like the Economist finally got the hint that there was something wrong with their model. They adjusted their methodology on Wednesday as follows:

National polls do not convert easily on a one-to-one basis to seats in Parliament. For example, in 1997 the Labour Party won 63% of the seats on 43% of the vote. Our model takes the simple principle of “uniform national swing”—the idea that support for parties rises and falls across all constituencies in the nation by the same magnitude—and augments it with specific regional polling, where it is available, from Scotland, Wales, London and so on. In order to derive an estimate from national polls we use an "ensemble" of two different predictions: our own swing model and an average of pollsters' MRP forecasts.

None of the archived links seem to have captured the interactive, so it's hard to gauge the precise impact of this adjustment. However, Wikipedia does maintain a record of what the Economist was showing on the 20th and on the 27th, which does give us at least some sense. For reference, the Economist's polling average only showed national shifts of one percentage point during that period: Labor and the Conservatives losing 1% and Reform and the Liberal Democrats gaining 1%.

The Economist's Forecast (Change from the 20th to the 27th):
Labour — 429 (+46)
Conservative — 117 (-67)
Liberal Democrats — 42 (+19)
SNP — 23 (-5)
Plaid Cymru — 3 (+1)
Green — 1 (±0)

The Economist's forecast model is still the Conservative's best, but it is now much more in-line with the others. They still give Labor a 2% chance to not win an outright majority, but no longer show any chance for the Conservatives to maintain the government. Also, given the way the error bars overlap, a strong performance for the SNP in Scotland, high levels of strategic voting for the Liberal Democrats, and Reform hitting the high-end of their expected range could conceivably land the Conservatives in fifth (that is, if the stars align, mercury is in retrograde, we all pray very, very hard, etc., etc.).

[Harlow]

A number of Labour officials in Islington North have resigned (or "expect to be expelled") in order to campaign for Corbyn.

Why would they do this less than a week before the election? Wouldn't it have more impact if they started participating in the campaign earlier?

I think it's a sign they expect the race to be close and that Corbyn needs all the help he can get. I've seen talk that many people didn't realize Corbyn was running as an independent so a lot of it will be helping spread the word so they aren't confused when they get a ballot.

[warandwar]

A number of Labour officials in Islington North have resigned (or "expect to be expelled") in order to campaign for Corbyn.

Why would they do this less than a week before the election? Wouldn't it have more impact if they started participating in the campaign earlier?

I think it's a sign they expect the race to be close and that Corbyn needs all the help he can get. I've seen talk that many people didn't realize Corbyn was running as an independent so a lot of it will be helping spread the word so they aren't confused when they get a ballot.

From an american or canadian standpoint, british elections are really short. As far as I know, a big push for the week prior is pretty standard for the uk, and things in general are much more casual over there. More money was spent on the Bowman primary here than by all british parties combined have spent during this election period.

[DL]

I wonder how much Labour and the Tories would each spend in an individual seat that is seriously contested? Are there local spending limits?

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

A number of Labour officials in Islington North have resigned (or "expect to be expelled") in order to campaign for Corbyn.

Why would they do this less than a week before the election? Wouldn't it have more impact if they started participating in the campaign earlier?

I think it's a sign they expect the race to be close and that Corbyn needs all the help he can get. I've seen talk that many people didn't realize Corbyn was running as an independent so a lot of it will be helping spread the word so they aren't confused when they get a ballot.

From an american or canadian standpoint, british elections are really short. As far as I know, a big push for the week prior is pretty standard for the uk, and things in general are much more casual over there. More money was spent on the Bowman primary here than by all british parties combined have spent during this election period.

To me, it seems like there’s a lot more reliance on leaflets and ground game than in the US. Probably helps that the constituencies are about a tenth of the population of the average Congress district.

[Kamala's side hoe]

I've heard online (or at least on this forum) that Chinese Britons are even more pro-Tory than India-origin Asian Britons are, but haven't seen any polls confirming that.

That's one of those things that's just known from canvassing data. But with the important caveat that turnout amongst them has also always been very low. I've no idea about the GE voting habits of the substantial Korean population in New Malden, other than obviously not Labour (and that Ed Davey presumably knows).

Out of curiosity, have there been any explanations as to why Chinese Brits are so Conservative?

Related question, where are most of them from in their origins? Mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, or other places such as Malaysia or Singapore?

Those that vote are overwhelmingly Hong Kongers, at least by family origin. Anyway, we're talking largely of a rather small 'c' conservative community with a strong small business/entrepreneurial culture and a dislike of socialist symbolism and rhetoric.

Reminds me of what zozl has said about the Hong Kong diaspora in the Lower Mainland (Metro Vancouver) in Canada. Debatable how much of the "low-turnout but heavily right-leaning" phenomenon is inherent to Pearl River Delta culture in general as opposed to Hong Kong-specific post-colonial dynamics. But that's a relitigated discussion for another day. I guess it also depends on why turnout among CVAP Chinese Brits is low.

[jimros]

I wonder how much Labour and the Tories would each spend in an individual seat that is seriously contested? Are there local spending limits?

The spending limit is apparently about $25K US, which seems insane to me.

[RBH]

wondering if the spending limits make it more likely that some party campaigners do the "stand at a busy part of town and wave yard signs" thing that some people try passing off as campaign volunteering in the USA