United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Chaos with Keir Starmer]

I think somehow they've allowed too strong a seat level effect in their model, perhaps to try to get the by-election seats and the Green targets right, and so where you get outlying data you get a whole seat predicted to do something very weird.

Electoral Calculus update on this:
https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1806628150933180456

They still have Reform winning Skipton & Ripon and Labour winning Stirling & Strathallan but not by the sort of margins they did before. They also now have Labour narrowly winning Rother Valley.

If the Tories are losing Skipton and Ripon* of all places, they’re just massively and utterly [Inks]ed.

* S&R is where the “Solman” family lived before coming to America.

[YL]

I think somehow they've allowed too strong a seat level effect in their model, perhaps to try to get the by-election seats and the Green targets right, and so where you get outlying data you get a whole seat predicted to do something very weird.

Electoral Calculus update on this:
https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1806628150933180456

They still have Reform winning Skipton & Ripon and Labour winning Stirling & Strathallan but not by the sort of margins they did before. They also now have Labour narrowly winning Rother Valley.

If the Tories are losing Skipton and Ripon* of all places, they’re just massively and utterly [Inks]ed.

* S&R is where the “Solman” family lived before coming to America.

They probably aren't, at least not like that; the prediction isn't as crazy as it was but still doesn't pass the smell test. It might just go Labour if the Tories are doing really badly, but it is Tory in my prediction.

[YL]

A Bloomberg article mentions some seats Labour might lose. It's no great surprise that Bristol Central is on the list and Dewsbury & Batley and Birmingham Ladywood are also possibles; the article suggests that Labour are more confident in Ladywood than in D & B. Talk of a Green challenge in Brighton Kemptown & Peacehaven, though, is a bit out of the blue, although I did think what happened to Lloyd Russell-Moyle was likely to go down badly.

No mention of Leicester East or Sheffield Hallam.

[Logical]

No mention of Leicester East or Sheffield Hallam.

Or Islington North, which suggests that Labour are pretty confident there.

[Germany1994]

A Bloomberg article mentions some seats Labour might lose. It's no great surprise that Bristol Central is on the list and Dewsbury & Batley and Birmingham Ladywood are also possibles; the article suggests that Labour are more confident in Ladywood than in D & B. Talk of a Green challenge in Brighton Kemptown & Peacehaven, though, is a bit out of the blue, although I did think what happened to Lloyd Russell-Moyle was likely to go down badly.

No mention of Leicester East or Sheffield Hallam.

To be honest I think in the end Labour will win all of these seats.

[Steve from Lambeth]

The funniest part is that looking over it is that it... broadly speaking checks out?

I'm surprised that Labour doesn't have more of a stronghold over ale drinkers. CAMRA abandoned their cask ale crusade long ago in favour of "live beer," which is essentially any beer with greater than a de minimis amount of yeast living in it. (For verification, see this article of theirs from 2019, before the most recent definition was issued.)

It's been tilting pretty heavily on DEI in recent years (this isn't related to the live beer shenanigans): at last count, the non-paywalled section of their Learn and Discover page included such articles as "Ukrainian Golden Ale," "Diversity, beer and cider," "Women and Cider," "What was the colour bar?", "An Introduction to Fire Brewing" (which, despite what you may have initially thought, leans massively on how women brewed beer using this method many centuries ago) - and, of course, "What is live beer?".

In April, its chairman Nik Antona rather openly bragged that Naked Ladies beer "was removed from eligibility for inclusion in our Champion Beer of Britain Competition in 2022, following complaints from members of the public." And the Hole in the Wall pub in Bodmin, after being awarded CAMRA's "best pub in Cornwall" award last year, was defrocked and removed from the national competition after Nazi uniforms were found on display there - despite the landlord arguing that they were more or less spoils of war and in no way an endorsement of Hitler and friends.

At this point, CAMRA has essentially given up being the defenders of cask ale that I imagined them to be even before I reached drinking age, instead choosing to be a general club of beer enthusiasts with nothing else, apparently including a membership active enough to enforce its hardline anti-misogyny rules, really going for it. It is also, far and away, the second-biggest non-brewery name in the world of British beer (Wetherspoons is #1). You'd think that ale drinkers, more than lager drinkers, would think that CAMRA - for all its newfound blazing social activism - still represents their interests better than anyone or anything else.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Poll of ethnic minority voters. Main takeaway is that black voters remain solidly Labour, Pakistani/Bangladeshi voters are very unhappy with Labour and the admittedly overtly politically engaged sample would suggest this is now the most Green demographic in the entire country (said Green voters rate Gaza as more important than climate change), Indian voters are only modestly Labour leaning on voting intention but net favourability for leaders is much better for Labour.

https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1806705295084663042
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49877-ethnic-minority-britons-at-the-2024-general-election

Are there religious splits for Indians?

Also curious if there are any ethnic splits for blacks?

Also curious what the ancestry breakdown of the "Other ethnicity" crosstab is. I've heard online (or at least on this forum) that Chinese Britons are even more pro-Tory than India-origin Asian Britons are, but haven't seen any polls confirming that.

Interesting that the ethnic minority crosstab is slightly less likely to prioritize "NHS and health" but slightly more likely to prioritize "The economy in general" than the general sample. This makes sense if the ethnic minority crosstab is disproportionately 1st or 2nd generation immigrants, which we can reasonably expect to be the case for pretty much every major ethnic minority group in the UK.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've heard online (or at least on this forum) that Chinese Britons are even more pro-Tory than India-origin Asian Britons are, but haven't seen any polls confirming that.

That's one of those things that's just known from canvassing data. But with the important caveat that turnout amongst them has also always been very low. I've no idea about the GE voting habits of the substantial Korean population in New Malden, other than obviously not Labour (and that Ed Davey presumably knows).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There are always more polls. Out today we have: More in Common Lab 39, Con 24, LDem 13, Ref 13, Greens 5, SNP 3; Whitestone Insight Lab 38, Ref 21, Con 18, LDem 11, Greens 5, SNP 3, Deltapoll Lab 42, Con 20, Ref 17, LDem 11, Greens 4, SNP 3; We Think Lab 42, Con 20, Ref 16, LDem 10, Greens 7, SNP 3.

Survation did another MRP, and its national totals were: Lab 42, Con 25, LDem 11, Ref 11, Greens 5, SNP 2.

Badwin's outfit has also produced some more numbers, which I will include out of completeness: Lab 40, Ref 21, Con 15, LDem 9, Greens 9, SNP 2.

[Pericles]

The Telegraph are scraping the bottom of the barrel here, even by their standards. Wow.
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1806695628690296907

[YL]

There are always more polls. Out today we have: More in Common Lab 39, Con 24, LDem 13, Ref 13, Greens 5, SNP 3; Whitestone Insight Lab 38, Ref 21, Con 18, LDem 11, Greens 5, SNP 3, Deltapoll Lab 42, Con 20, Ref 17, LDem 11, Greens 4, SNP 3; We Think Lab 42, Con 20, Ref 16, LDem 10, Greens 7, SNP 3.

Survation did another MRP, and its national totals were: Lab 42, Con 25, LDem 11, Ref 11, Greens 5, SNP 2.

Badwin's outfit has also produced some more numbers, which I will include out of completeness: Lab 40, Ref 21, Con 15, LDem 9, Greens 9, SNP 2.

It's curious how different Survation's MRP is from the conventional polls on the Con and Reform shares.

The possible Reform UK peak a few days ago may have been illusory; these latest polls show them roughly steady or still very slightly increasing. But even ignoring the Survation MRP there is considerable variation in how much of a combined Con/Ref vote of about 36% is going to each party, with Badwin at one extreme and More in Common at the other.

[Coldstream]

It’s going to be very funny when Labour win Bristol Central & Brighton Pavillion, and Corbyn, Galloway & the ‘We ❤️ Gaza independents’ come nowhere close to winning anything.

[TheTide]

It’s going to be very funny when Labour win Bristol Central & Brighton Pavillion, and Corbyn, Galloway & the ‘We ❤️ Gaza independents’ come nowhere close to winning anything.

Everyone on whatever side is getting too worked up about such seats. None of them are going to determine who forms government, and that would be the case in a close election.

[Cassius]

The Telegraph are scraping the bottom of the barrel here, even by their standards. Wow.
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1806695628690296907

Given the expansive definitions of human rights that have sometimes been adopted by UK courts and the ECHR in recent times, this would not surprise me. It can certainly be argued that placing VAT on private school fees is discriminatory, given that there is no proposal to do likewise for university tuition fees (both universities and private schools are registered as charitable organisations, a status that Labour has said it will not ditch for the latter) or private tuition fees (which I believe are VAT exempt for sole traders and partnerships), and I’m sure that those with deep pockets will be able to find good barristers to argue that case.

In light of the relative success that the liberal-left has had with strategic litigation against various Conservative governments in the last decade (with Brexit, migration and environmental laws being some of the more prominent examples), the right will certainly be tempted to adopt similar tactics in the coming decade, especially given the likelihood of a weak Conservative opposition failing to offer any challenge to a Labour Party that has a massive majority.

[Coldstream]

It’s going to be very funny when Labour win Bristol Central & Brighton Pavillion, and Corbyn, Galloway & the ‘We ❤️ Gaza independents’ come nowhere close to winning anything.

Everyone on whatever side is getting too worked up about such seats. None of them are going to determine who forms government, and that would be the case in a close election.

Sure, but Labour winning all of them will further cripple Galloway/The Greens ability to fight.

[Badger]

Poll of ethnic minority voters. Main takeaway is that black voters remain solidly Labour, Pakistani/Bangladeshi voters are very unhappy with Labour and the admittedly overtly politically engaged sample would suggest this is now the most Green demographic in the entire country (said Green voters rate Gaza as more important than climate change), Indian voters are only modestly Labour leaning on voting intention but net favourability for leaders is much better for Labour.

https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1806705295084663042?s=61&t=I1DE8_cg7gmZrch...

Are there religious splits for Indians?

Also curious if there are any ethnic splits for blacks?

I'm wondering how much of that closeness for Indian voters is because Indians have greater affinity towards the Tories than most minorities, and how much it is that the Tories have the first Indian pm in history.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Telegraph are scraping the bottom of the barrel here, even by their standards. Wow.
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1806695628690296907

Pretty funny to see the ECHR being used against Labour by the Telegraph, of all people.

[TheTide]

I feel the need to comment on this. Mostly to say that many of these have subcategories that would greatly differ from one another in terms of voting intentions.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Poll of ethnic minority voters. Main takeaway is that black voters remain solidly Labour, Pakistani/Bangladeshi voters are very unhappy with Labour and the admittedly overtly politically engaged sample would suggest this is now the most Green demographic in the entire country (said Green voters rate Gaza as more important than climate change), Indian voters are only modestly Labour leaning on voting intention but net favourability for leaders is much better for Labour.

https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1806705295084663042?s=61&t=I1DE8_cg7gmZrch...

Are there religious splits for Indians?

Also curious if there are any ethnic splits for blacks?

I'm wondering how much of that closeness for Indian voters is because Indians have greater affinity towards the Tories than most minorities, and how much it is that the Tories have the first Indian pm in history.

If I had to guess it's a mix of both. More the former than the latter. I could see many also being opposed to Labour's plans regarding schooling as well, and concerns like that motivating subsections of the Indian vote.

[Tintrlvr]

I've heard online (or at least on this forum) that Chinese Britons are even more pro-Tory than India-origin Asian Britons are, but haven't seen any polls confirming that.

That's one of those things that's just known from canvassing data. But with the important caveat that turnout amongst them has also always been very low. I've no idea about the GE voting habits of the substantial Korean population in New Malden, other than obviously not Labour (and that Ed Davey presumably knows).

The local council seat is currently fairly solidly Lib Dem (though was Tory 2002-2018, LDs gained it on a big swing in 2018), with one Korean British LD councillor. The Tories (or other parties; the Greens were second in 2022) seem not to have put up any Korean British candidates at least in recent years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Kingston_upon_Thames_London_Borough_Council_election?wprov=sfti1#New_Malden_Village

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Kingston_upon_Thames_London_Borough_Council_election?wprov=sfti1#Beverley

[CumbrianLefty]

It’s going to be very funny when Labour win Bristol Central & Brighton Pavillion, and Corbyn, Galloway & the ‘We ❤️ Gaza independents’ come nowhere close to winning anything.

Everyone on whatever side is getting too worked up about such seats. None of them are going to determine who forms government, and that would be the case in a close election.

Sure, but Labour winning all of them will further cripple Galloway/The Greens ability to fight.

A reality check for certain big headed Independent candidates would certainly be welcome too. Some have attracted quite ridiculous (even by the usual standards) online cults.

[Arson Plus]

I've heard online (or at least on this forum) that Chinese Britons are even more pro-Tory than India-origin Asian Britons are, but haven't seen any polls confirming that.

That's one of those things that's just known from canvassing data. But with the important caveat that turnout amongst them has also always been very low. I've no idea about the GE voting habits of the substantial Korean population in New Malden, other than obviously not Labour (and that Ed Davey presumably knows).

Out of curiosity, have there been any explanations as to why Chinese Brits are so Conservative?

[Chaos with Keir Starmer]

I've heard online (or at least on this forum) that Chinese Britons are even more pro-Tory than India-origin Asian Britons are, but haven't seen any polls confirming that.

That's one of those things that's just known from canvassing data. But with the important caveat that turnout amongst them has also always been very low. I've no idea about the GE voting habits of the substantial Korean population in New Malden, other than obviously not Labour (and that Ed Davey presumably knows).

Out of curiosity, have there been any explanations as to why Chinese Brits are so Conservative?

Related question, where are most of them from in their origins? Mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, or other places such as Malaysia or Singapore?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Those that vote are overwhelmingly Hong Kongers, at least by family origin. Anyway, we're talking largely of a rather small 'c' conservative community with a strong small business/entrepreneurial culture and a dislike of socialist symbolism and rhetoric.

[Germany1994]

Maybe they´re more affluent and less working class than Pakistani or Bangladeshi Brits??