NYT: The Shaky Foundation of Trump’s Lead: Disengaged Voters

[Skill and Chance]

I’m even skeptical of these non-voter stats.

A pretty significant chunk of 2020 non-voters who actually end up voting in 2024 will be people who have aged into the electorate since 2020. Perhaps that group doesn’t lean as heavily D as previous young voters, but Biden still probably wins it. Likewise with recent immigrants who have gained citizenship and hence the right to vote since 2020 - maybe not as blue as 2020 but still break for Biden.

Some of these polls showing stuff like Trump + 30 with 2020 non voters seem a bit unrealistic for this reason

+13 here by NYT seems a bit more reasonable but it’d still take people who could’ve voted in 2020 but didn’t breaking pretty hard for Trump.

https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1793987645972062361

There was a report out today that new youth (age 18-29) voter registration in Pennsylvania has been very disproportionately Republican.  This could explain Biden winning 2020 voters and losing because of new voters.  Perhaps the 1st hard data that something really is going on with the youth vote?

[Skill and Chance]

I’m even skeptical of these non-voter stats.

A pretty significant chunk of 2020 non-voters who actually end up voting in 2024 will be people who have aged into the electorate since 2020. Perhaps that group doesn’t lean as heavily D as previous young voters, but Biden still probably wins it. Likewise with recent immigrants who have gained citizenship and hence the right to vote since 2020 - maybe not as blue as 2020 but still break for Biden.

Some of these polls showing stuff like Trump + 30 with 2020 non voters seem a bit unrealistic for this reason

+13 here by NYT seems a bit more reasonable but it’d still take people who could’ve voted in 2020 but didn’t breaking pretty hard for Trump.

https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1793987645972062361

There was a report out today that new youth (age 18-29) voter registration in Pennsylvania has been very disproportionately Republican.  This could explain Biden winning 2020 voters and losing because of new voters.  Perhaps the 1st hard data that something really is going on with the youth vote?

I mean, not really imo? That shows a major shift from 2020 and 2022 and yet Fetterman still won a huge majority of young voters, so I don't really find it that compelling, especially when there is 26% of young people registering Independent as well. This time in 2020 was also right before the primary as well, so that could've easily led to a jump in Dem specific registrations. It's not great to see, and Dems can always beef up their voter reg efforts, but there's a lot of unknowns in voter reg data, especially in PA, especially with younger voters.

It's consistent with significant movement right of young voters compared to 2022.