🇨🇦 2024 Canadian by-elections

[adma]

St. Paul's can perhaps be divided into 4 main "zones":  progressive Hillcrest-Humewood, heavily Jewish Forest Hill-Cedarvale, establishmentarian Deer Park-Casa Loma and Yonge-Eglinton (aka "Young and Eligible").

Arguably a 5th zone might be Oakwood Village in the NW--more "multiethnic" than Hillcrest-Humewood (including Little Jamaica and perhaps some Corso Italia-zone "edge condition") and more of a piece with the adjoining parts of Davenport & Eglinton-Lawrence (and further W, York South-Weston).  Which also makes it the most "Ford Nation" part of the riding (though what that means for Poilievre is TBD--but the Liberalism here has always been more of the "blue-collar populist" variety, and thus vulnerable to leaking in both directions in case the LPC is fatally framed as "elitist")

For what it's worth, ONDP did win the Oakwood Village polls in 2018 and 2022, and PCs weren't even particularly competitive in those polls in 2022, despite having very strong showings in other Ford Nation type areas (like neighbouring York South-Weston, where Doug's nephew was able to unseat the incumbent NDP MPP). There's been a fair bit of gentrification in Oakwood Village, to the point that I don't think it's core Ford nation suburbia anymore, but a hybrid of that and the "young and progressive" demographic you see closer to St. Clair.

However, if we look at 2021 *federally*, Oakwood Village was one of the few spots in the riding where Liberal support was actually *stable* from 2019 (their share went down 5 points riding-wide)--and it thereby became the new "best Lib zone" (it had previously been the Yonge/Eg/Davisville area in the E).  So a kind of "Dzerowicz-bleed ethno-populism" buoyed the party there--one might call it "Ford Liberalism", as opposed to, I guess, "Laurentian Liberalism"; and it was a combination of promiscuous-progressivism and promiscuous-populism that defaulted the vote to the NDP provincially.  But when it comes to the special nature of "Ford Liberalism", take note that in '18 provincially, the Tories finished *ahead* of the Liberals at large in Oakwood Village--the SW poll had them 30% to the Libs' 21%, the SE & N polls both had them only a point behind the Libs, and all 3 had the Tories *above* the riding par (of course, the NDP was ahead in all 3).  (Maybe reflecting that slow path to gentrification as well as a weaker Tory campaign, '22 provincially wasn't so "Con-weighted"--all 3 polls were NDP-Lib-Tory, SW 38-28-25, SE 42-30-20, N 36-31-25.  But still, all 3 were Lib subpar, and 2 out of 3 remained above Tory par--and the odd poll out in the SE was the one that felt the most "gentrification reverb" from out Humewood way.)

[DL]

Shannon Philips the Alberta NDP former cabinet minister and current MLA for Lethbridge West is resigning her seat on July 1. Could be an opportunity for Naheed Nenshi to get a seat in a byelection

[adma]

Carolyn Parrish wins the Mississauga Mayoral byelection (and Natalie Hart wins in Ward 5)
Tedjo/Damerla/Dasko was the order of the other 3 major players.

https://mississaugavotes.ca/by-election-2024/by-election-results/

Parrish 31.06
Tedjo 25.00
Damerla 19.37
Dasko 16.00

[Hatman 🍁]

Ward 5 was a race between Hart and Danny Singh. Hart was Crombie's candidate and Singh was Parrish. Apparently Parrish and Crombie don't like each other very much. Hart won with 29.1% of the vote, and Singh won 23.5%

[DL]

Ward 5 was a race between Hart and Danny Singh. Hart was Crombie's candidate and Singh was Parrish. Apparently Parrish and Crombie don't like each other very much. Hart won with 29.1% of the vote, and Singh won 23.5%

Didn’t Crombie beat Parrish when she was first elected mayor largely thanks to a last minute endorsement by Hazel Mcallion

[King of Kensington]

Two Polish mayors in a row.

[DL]

Two Polish mayors in a row.

Parrish is Polish?

[MaxQue]

Two Polish mayors in a row.

Parrish is Polish?

Her maiden name is Karolina Janoszewska.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ward 5 was a race between Hart and Danny Singh. Hart was Crombie's candidate and Singh was Parrish. Apparently Parrish and Crombie don't like each other very much. Hart won with 29.1% of the vote, and Singh won 23.5%

Didn’t Crombie beat Parrish when she was first elected mayor largely thanks to a last minute endorsement by Hazel Mcallion

No, that was Steve Mahoney.

You may be confusing it with the 2011 by-election in Ward 5, where Crombie narrowly beat Parrish by just over 100 votes.

Anyway, if anyone is interested, here is the result of the Gatineau election by district:

[DL]

What explains the east west split on how people voted for mayor? Is it where the top two candidates are each from?

[MaxQue]

What explains the east west split on how people voted for mayor? Is it where the top two candidates are each from?

No. Ducharme was the mayor of pre-merger Hull from 1992 to 2001 and the merged Gatineau from 2001 to 2005. He won none of the 6 districts in Hull (and all 3 districts in Aylmer, the Buckingham district and 3 of the 8 old Gatineau districts), only winning 5 districts in Old Gatineau and the district covering Masson-Angers.

In fact, the winner is also from Hull, representing the NW part of it a few years ago.

If anything, it looks like an old PQ/PLQ map.

[Hatman 🍁]

While MMB did well in some suburbs (she represented one of the most suburban seats on council), Gatineau has more of a "suburban" feel to it, and its more isolated from Ottawa (this partially explains the PQ/PLQ split Max was talking about).  All 5 bridges from Ottawa go to Hull/Aylmer. Aylmer also has a significant Anglo population.

Buckingham going for MMB was a surprise though. It should be noted that the previous Action Gatineau mayor was from Buckingham, so his coattails still have some sway there.

For reference, here is a map of the 2021 race.



You can see MMB's gains were in the suburbs, gaining the two furthest western Aylmer districts (though, these cover old Aymer, which is more urban than suburban), one older suburb in Hull, 2 suburban Gatineau districts, and of course Buckingham in the far east.

[King of Kensington]

Looks like the Conservatives are sending out "Jewish letters" again:

https://x.com/shaezg/status/1800654895579603217

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Looks like the Conservatives are sending out "Jewish letters" again:

https://x.com/shaezg/status/1800654895579603217

I expect the Conservatives got the information on who all the Jewish Canadians in Toronto are from Israel as part of their illegal sharing of sensitive Canadian national security with Netanyahu/Likud.

[Hatman 🍁]

Some Mississauga maps...





A very parochial race.

Interestingly, Damerla did not win her ward, but she did win Ward 3 which is home to Bloor St, where she wants to rip up the bike lanes. Argh!

Dasko dominated his home ward, but didn't do well anywhere else. No one else won a ward by the margin he did.

Tedjo was strongest in his ward, and was able to make some inroads into the news subdivisions in the NW

Parrish was strongest in her home ward of course, and she also won the Erindale area, which she represented on council previously, and as an MP (though, she lost the Erin Mills area, which she also represented in Parliament)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/toronto-st-pauls-cabinet-longest-ballot-1.7230026

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and at least 13 of his ministers have dropped into Toronto-St. Paul's to campaign on behalf of Liberal candidate Leslie Church, a former political staffer, ahead of the June 24 vote.

Those ministers include Greater Toronto Area representatives like Chrystia Freeland and Anita Anand, along with ministers from more far-flung ridings such as Harjit Sajjan and François-Philippe Champagne.

So the Liberals are bringing out the big guns for St. Paul's. Sending "at least" 13 ministers to one riding is no small deal. I doubt anyone in Trudeau's cabinet has much sway with swing voters at this point, but this is a turnout game, and sending the likes of Freeland and Anand can only help turn out Liberal support in a naturally Liberal riding.

[King of Kensington]

Fournier is predicting the Liberals win by between four and eight points.

[adma]

Fournier is predicting the Liberals win by between four and eight points.

I presume that if the NDP's holding its own, that'll mean the lowest Lib share in the 416 since 2011.

I wonder how many zero-vote candidates will be among the longest-balloteers...

[DL]

If you’re a Liberal in st.Pauls you should vote strategically NDP or even Tory to push toxic Trudeau to quit

[King of Kensington]

It seems like all the by-election coverage about St. Paul's I'm seeing is about the "Jewish vote." I suppose in a low turnout by-election it's possible that the "pro-Israel" vote is motivated while the rest of the population isn't paying much attention to a summer by-election?  But I don't think "Israel-motivated" voters represent more than 5% of the electorate in St. Paul's. 

[Hatman 🍁]

The riding is 15% Jewish. Make of that what you will.

[DL]

The riding is 15% Jewish. Make of that what you will.

The Jewish population is St. Paul’s is very secular and small l liberal. The really fanatical pro-Israel types already voted Tory in 2021 and before that so I doubt if there are all that many votes up for grabs

[King of Kensington]

17,000 Jews live in St. Paul's, about 1/3 who live in the Jewish enclave of Forest Hill-Cedarvale.  The other 2/3 live in more mixed neighborhoods and presumably vote like their neighbors.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Halifax M.P Andy Fillmore has confirmed what has long been rumored. He is stepping down as an M.P to run for mayor of Halifax.

Interesting the number of Liberal incumbent riding vacancies where the NDP has a chance.
https://halifax.citynews.ca/2024/06/17/halifax-mp-stepping-away-from-federal-politics-ahead-of-expected-mayoral-bid/

[lilTommy]

Halifax M.P Andy Fillmore has confirmed what has long been rumored. He is stepping down as an M.P to run for mayor of Halifax.

Interesting the number of Liberal incumbent riding vacancies where the NDP has a chance.
https://halifax.citynews.ca/2024/06/17/halifax-mp-stepping-away-from-federal-politics-ahead-of-expected-mayoral-bid/

Halifax looks to be the best pick-up of LPC non-incumbents so far. Lisa Roberts who ran in 2021, former MLA was very close last time (40%ish vs Fillmore at 42%)

Of The other LPC seats, the NDP may only have decent shots at Beaches-East York, most of them look more favourable to the CPC. On the CPC side though, Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River will have no incumbent so that will be a good target for the NDP.