6/18 Congressional Primaries Discussion: VA, OK, GA

[The Mikado]

On the local level, Arlington's Democratic primary for an open county board seat is still not decided.

Because it uses ranked choice voting, it must wait until all mail-in ballots post-marked the day of the election come in.

So we won't know who won until FRIDAY at 5PM at an in-person event at the County government building. It's such a terrible system.

Who cares about a delay of a few days? The general election isn't until November anyways. Lots of states don't even have a primary until July or August.

Because delays give bad actors room to claim that there's something wrong.

Yeah, this is the biggest reason. It also fans the flames of RCV critics as well.

Over the last few years I've drifted to thinking plain old old-fashioned two round top two runoffs might be better than IRV just because everyone understands them and "it's going to a runoff" can usually be called really quickly rather than the "Wait until every vote is counted then run IRV like three weeks later" model Maine and Alaska have become in practice.

I certainly would pick two round top two runoffs if the US ever went popular vote for Presidential election over IRV. Could you IMAGINE an IRV scenario for the Presidency in a national popular vote world?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

On the local level, Arlington's Democratic primary for an open county board seat is still not decided.

Because it uses ranked choice voting, it must wait until all mail-in ballots post-marked the day of the election come in.

So we won't know who won until FRIDAY at 5PM at an in-person event at the County government building. It's such a terrible system.

Who cares about a delay of a few days? The general election isn't until November anyways. Lots of states don't even have a primary until July or August.

Because delays give bad actors room to claim that there's something wrong.

Yeah, this is the biggest reason. It also fans the flames of RCV critics as well.

I'm a big supporter of RCV, but I don't understand why states/localities can't post the complete rankings of candidates in real time so that the likely outcome of the RCV tabulation will be clear on election night.

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

On the local level, Arlington's Democratic primary for an open county board seat is still not decided.

Because it uses ranked choice voting, it must wait until all mail-in ballots post-marked the day of the election come in.

So we won't know who won until FRIDAY at 5PM at an in-person event at the County government building. It's such a terrible system.

Who cares about a delay of a few days? The general election isn't until November anyways. Lots of states don't even have a primary until July or August.

Because delays give bad actors room to claim that there's something wrong.

Yeah, this is the biggest reason. It also fans the flames of RCV critics as well.

I'm a big supporter of RCV, but I don't understand why states/localities can't post the complete rankings of candidates in real time so that the likely outcome of the RCV tabulation will be clear on election night.

The exact pattern of who is eliminated when, particularly in a local contest, may not be clear until days after the election. Particularly in elections for multiple seats, where there is a good shot of the elimination order affecting the final outcome, the level of 'election night coverage' that our present system affords us just isn't possible.

[Schiff for Senate]

As long as  Eugene Vindman loses I will be happy. Not a fan of "celebrity" candidates parachuting into a district that already has quality candidates. 

Agreed, but he's just the perfect fit for VA-07. It's a very establishment, national security-oriented district and has been arguably one of the least receptive areas in the country to Trump's anti-establishment rhetoric. Trump firing Vindman is a perfect example of the kind of behavior that people in this district abhor. It's not your typical left leaning seat.

Spanberger also used to work in the CIA, for example.

[Schiff for Senate]

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

For that to happen, Trump would have to turn on them because they weren't loyal... which seems highly highly unlikely.

This. Good didn't get taken out because he was too far right, he got taken out because he made enemies with too many people, and the wrong people (namely Trump).

[Schiff for Senate]

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

For that to happen, Trump would have to turn on them because they weren't loyal... which seems highly highly unlikely.

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

The same MTG that Trump is encouraging to run for Senate and the same Gaetz Trump is encouraging to run for Governor? If there’s anything we can take away from this primary, it’s that GOP base voters like people who are willing to antagonize the establishment. McGuire had all the advantages (including Trump’s endorsement) and he’s still struggling.

Steve King lost his 2020 primary and Trump didn't endorse Feenstra.

Madison Cawthorn lost his 2022 primary and Trump didn't endorse Edwards. In fact, he stood by Cawthorn.

It's possible to take out far-right freedom caucus members in a primary if they becomes problems for the caucus and there's an actual effort to do so. I'm not writing off primary challenges to any of them after these examples happened.

The problem with the aforementioned is that a good chunk of their core constituents was turned off by revelations from King & Cawthorne. As of now, Gatez & MTG are seemingly BELOVED by their constituents. That could change for Gatez if something serious comes out during the ethics probe, really doubtful that happens for Greene.

Also, Cawthorn's problem wasn't ideological at all. His problem was that he was an absolute weirdo nutjob freak - that video of him humping his (male) cousin, and talking about cocaine-fueled orgies, being prime examples of this.

Ideologically, he and Edwards are almost completely the same. The difference between the two is that Edwards isn't a distraction and an embarrassment. He doesn't grab headlines for all the wrong reasons the way Cawthorn kept doing.

King was indeed removed because of just how far-right he was, but honestly, he's much more an exception than the rule as far as that's concerned. I also don't have real concrete evidence, but I get the feeling that IA Republicans aren't that extreme. None of the 4 GOP representatives right now, nor either of the senators or Gov. Reynolds, are far-right.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

For that to happen, Trump would have to turn on them because they weren't loyal... which seems highly highly unlikely.

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

The same MTG that Trump is encouraging to run for Senate and the same Gaetz Trump is encouraging to run for Governor? If there’s anything we can take away from this primary, it’s that GOP base voters like people who are willing to antagonize the establishment. McGuire had all the advantages (including Trump’s endorsement) and he’s still struggling.

Steve King lost his 2020 primary and Trump didn't endorse Feenstra.

Madison Cawthorn lost his 2022 primary and Trump didn't endorse Edwards. In fact, he stood by Cawthorn.

It's possible to take out far-right freedom caucus members in a primary if they becomes problems for the caucus and there's an actual effort to do so. I'm not writing off primary challenges to any of them after these examples happened.

The problem with the aforementioned is that a good chunk of their core constituents was turned off by revelations from King & Cawthorne. As of now, Gatez & MTG are seemingly BELOVED by their constituents. That could change for Gatez if something serious comes out during the ethics probe, really doubtful that happens for Greene.

Also, Cawthorn's problem wasn't ideological at all. His problem was that he was an absolute weirdo nutjob freak - that video of him humping his (male) cousin, and talking about cocaine-fueled orgies, being prime examples of this.

Ideologically, he and Edwards are almost completely the same. The difference between the two is that Edwards isn't a distraction and an embarrassment. He doesn't grab headlines for all the wrong reasons the way Cawthorn kept doing.

King was indeed removed because of just how far-right he was, but honestly, he's much more an exception than the rule as far as that's concerned. I also don't have real concrete evidence, but I get the feeling that IA Republicans aren't that extreme. None of the 4 GOP representatives right now, nor either of the senators or Gov. Reynolds, are far-right.

What are your thoughts on the MTG/Boebert/Gaetz trio? Do any of them have weaknesses that could make them vulnerable in a primary?

[Schiff for Senate]

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

For that to happen, Trump would have to turn on them because they weren't loyal... which seems highly highly unlikely.

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

The same MTG that Trump is encouraging to run for Senate and the same Gaetz Trump is encouraging to run for Governor? If there’s anything we can take away from this primary, it’s that GOP base voters like people who are willing to antagonize the establishment. McGuire had all the advantages (including Trump’s endorsement) and he’s still struggling.

Steve King lost his 2020 primary and Trump didn't endorse Feenstra.

Madison Cawthorn lost his 2022 primary and Trump didn't endorse Edwards. In fact, he stood by Cawthorn.

It's possible to take out far-right freedom caucus members in a primary if they becomes problems for the caucus and there's an actual effort to do so. I'm not writing off primary challenges to any of them after these examples happened.

The problem with the aforementioned is that a good chunk of their core constituents was turned off by revelations from King & Cawthorne. As of now, Gatez & MTG are seemingly BELOVED by their constituents. That could change for Gatez if something serious comes out during the ethics probe, really doubtful that happens for Greene.

Also, Cawthorn's problem wasn't ideological at all. His problem was that he was an absolute weirdo nutjob freak - that video of him humping his (male) cousin, and talking about cocaine-fueled orgies, being prime examples of this.

Ideologically, he and Edwards are almost completely the same. The difference between the two is that Edwards isn't a distraction and an embarrassment. He doesn't grab headlines for all the wrong reasons the way Cawthorn kept doing.

King was indeed removed because of just how far-right he was, but honestly, he's much more an exception than the rule as far as that's concerned. I also don't have real concrete evidence, but I get the feeling that IA Republicans aren't that extreme. None of the 4 GOP representatives right now, nor either of the senators or Gov. Reynolds, are far-right.

What are your thoughts on the MTG/Boebert/Gaetz trio? Do any of them have weaknesses that could make them vulnerable in a primary?

Both MTG and Gaetz are safe in their seats for as long as they want them.
Boebert may be in trouble due to carpetbagging, obviously. Seems like she's getting lucky this year with a split opposition field, but if the opposition coalesces around a candidate in 2026, she might be cooked.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

For that to happen, Trump would have to turn on them because they weren't loyal... which seems highly highly unlikely.

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

The same MTG that Trump is encouraging to run for Senate and the same Gaetz Trump is encouraging to run for Governor? If there’s anything we can take away from this primary, it’s that GOP base voters like people who are willing to antagonize the establishment. McGuire had all the advantages (including Trump’s endorsement) and he’s still struggling.

Steve King lost his 2020 primary and Trump didn't endorse Feenstra.

Madison Cawthorn lost his 2022 primary and Trump didn't endorse Edwards. In fact, he stood by Cawthorn.

It's possible to take out far-right freedom caucus members in a primary if they becomes problems for the caucus and there's an actual effort to do so. I'm not writing off primary challenges to any of them after these examples happened.

The problem with the aforementioned is that a good chunk of their core constituents was turned off by revelations from King & Cawthorne. As of now, Gatez & MTG are seemingly BELOVED by their constituents. That could change for Gatez if something serious comes out during the ethics probe, really doubtful that happens for Greene.

Also, Cawthorn's problem wasn't ideological at all. His problem was that he was an absolute weirdo nutjob freak - that video of him humping his (male) cousin, and talking about cocaine-fueled orgies, being prime examples of this.

Ideologically, he and Edwards are almost completely the same. The difference between the two is that Edwards isn't a distraction and an embarrassment. He doesn't grab headlines for all the wrong reasons the way Cawthorn kept doing.

King was indeed removed because of just how far-right he was, but honestly, he's much more an exception than the rule as far as that's concerned. I also don't have real concrete evidence, but I get the feeling that IA Republicans aren't that extreme. None of the 4 GOP representatives right now, nor either of the senators or Gov. Reynolds, are far-right.

What are your thoughts on the MTG/Boebert/Gaetz trio? Do any of them have weaknesses that could make them vulnerable in a primary?

Both MTG and Gaetz are safe in their seats for as long as they want them.
Boebert may be in trouble due to carpetbagging, obviously. Seems like she's getting lucky this year with a split opposition field, but if the opposition coalesces around a candidate in 2026, she might be cooked.

Agreed. Also, Boebert has a lot of massive personal baggage not unlike Cawthorn.
 
That being said, Gaetz seems like he has a lot of skeletons in his closet that could get him in trouble once they come out. MTG seems to have made a lot of enemies in congress too Bob Good style, though at least she still has Trump in her corner.

[Schiff for Senate]

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

For that to happen, Trump would have to turn on them because they weren't loyal... which seems highly highly unlikely.

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

The same MTG that Trump is encouraging to run for Senate and the same Gaetz Trump is encouraging to run for Governor? If there’s anything we can take away from this primary, it’s that GOP base voters like people who are willing to antagonize the establishment. McGuire had all the advantages (including Trump’s endorsement) and he’s still struggling.

Steve King lost his 2020 primary and Trump didn't endorse Feenstra.

Madison Cawthorn lost his 2022 primary and Trump didn't endorse Edwards. In fact, he stood by Cawthorn.

It's possible to take out far-right freedom caucus members in a primary if they becomes problems for the caucus and there's an actual effort to do so. I'm not writing off primary challenges to any of them after these examples happened.

The problem with the aforementioned is that a good chunk of their core constituents was turned off by revelations from King & Cawthorne. As of now, Gatez & MTG are seemingly BELOVED by their constituents. That could change for Gatez if something serious comes out during the ethics probe, really doubtful that happens for Greene.

Also, Cawthorn's problem wasn't ideological at all. His problem was that he was an absolute weirdo nutjob freak - that video of him humping his (male) cousin, and talking about cocaine-fueled orgies, being prime examples of this.

Ideologically, he and Edwards are almost completely the same. The difference between the two is that Edwards isn't a distraction and an embarrassment. He doesn't grab headlines for all the wrong reasons the way Cawthorn kept doing.

King was indeed removed because of just how far-right he was, but honestly, he's much more an exception than the rule as far as that's concerned. I also don't have real concrete evidence, but I get the feeling that IA Republicans aren't that extreme. None of the 4 GOP representatives right now, nor either of the senators or Gov. Reynolds, are far-right.

What are your thoughts on the MTG/Boebert/Gaetz trio? Do any of them have weaknesses that could make them vulnerable in a primary?

Both MTG and Gaetz are safe in their seats for as long as they want them.
Boebert may be in trouble due to carpetbagging, obviously. Seems like she's getting lucky this year with a split opposition field, but if the opposition coalesces around a candidate in 2026, she might be cooked.

Agreed. Also, Boebert has a lot of massive personal baggage not unlike Cawthorn.
 
That being said, Gaetz seems like he has a lot of skeletons in his closet that could get him in trouble once they come out. MTG seems to have made a lot of enemies in congress too Bob Good style, though at least she still has Trump in her corner.

Agreed strongly with MTG. The day she s up and makes an enemy of Trump, she's done. But so far she's stayed safely in his good graces, so she's fine.

Re: Gaetz, I think he'll weather pretty much any storm. Keep in mind he's survived even allegations of literal pedophilia. I'm not certain he'd fare the same in a statewide primary, even with a Trump endorsement, so if I were him I'd probably stay put in Congress.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

For that to happen, Trump would have to turn on them because they weren't loyal... which seems highly highly unlikely.

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

The same MTG that Trump is encouraging to run for Senate and the same Gaetz Trump is encouraging to run for Governor? If there’s anything we can take away from this primary, it’s that GOP base voters like people who are willing to antagonize the establishment. McGuire had all the advantages (including Trump’s endorsement) and he’s still struggling.

Steve King lost his 2020 primary and Trump didn't endorse Feenstra.

Madison Cawthorn lost his 2022 primary and Trump didn't endorse Edwards. In fact, he stood by Cawthorn.

It's possible to take out far-right freedom caucus members in a primary if they becomes problems for the caucus and there's an actual effort to do so. I'm not writing off primary challenges to any of them after these examples happened.

The problem with the aforementioned is that a good chunk of their core constituents was turned off by revelations from King & Cawthorne. As of now, Gatez & MTG are seemingly BELOVED by their constituents. That could change for Gatez if something serious comes out during the ethics probe, really doubtful that happens for Greene.

Also, Cawthorn's problem wasn't ideological at all. His problem was that he was an absolute weirdo nutjob freak - that video of him humping his (male) cousin, and talking about cocaine-fueled orgies, being prime examples of this.

Ideologically, he and Edwards are almost completely the same. The difference between the two is that Edwards isn't a distraction and an embarrassment. He doesn't grab headlines for all the wrong reasons the way Cawthorn kept doing.

King was indeed removed because of just how far-right he was, but honestly, he's much more an exception than the rule as far as that's concerned. I also don't have real concrete evidence, but I get the feeling that IA Republicans aren't that extreme. None of the 4 GOP representatives right now, nor either of the senators or Gov. Reynolds, are far-right.

What are your thoughts on the MTG/Boebert/Gaetz trio? Do any of them have weaknesses that could make them vulnerable in a primary?

Both MTG and Gaetz are safe in their seats for as long as they want them.
Boebert may be in trouble due to carpetbagging, obviously. Seems like she's getting lucky this year with a split opposition field, but if the opposition coalesces around a candidate in 2026, she might be cooked.

Agreed. Also, Boebert has a lot of massive personal baggage not unlike Cawthorn.
 
That being said, Gaetz seems like he has a lot of skeletons in his closet that could get him in trouble once they come out. MTG seems to have made a lot of enemies in congress too Bob Good style, though at least she still has Trump in her corner.

Agreed strongly with MTG. The day she s up and makes an enemy of Trump, she's done. But so far she's stayed safely in his good graces, so she's fine.

Re: Gaetz, I think he'll weather pretty much any storm. Keep in mind he's survived even allegations of literal pedophilia. I'm not certain he'd fare the same in a statewide primary, even with a Trump endorsement, so if I were him I'd probably stay put in Congress.

Also MTG is lucky her district is mostly rural and not suburban. If she was in a district more like Rich McCormick’s or Barry Loudermilk’s she’d be a lot easier to take out in a primary since well educated suburban Republicans probably aren’t her biggest fans.

This is an underrated liability for Boebert. Her base is rural WWC Coloradans, not Denver suburbanites. Having Douglas County being half the district is going to be a problem for her in a primary, and maybe even a general given the seat is Trump+18 and zooming leftward.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Please start trimming the quotes and try to avoid walls of text. Thank you.

[Schiff for Senate]

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

For that to happen, Trump would have to turn on them because they weren't loyal... which seems highly highly unlikely.

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

The same MTG that Trump is encouraging to run for Senate and the same Gaetz Trump is encouraging to run for Governor? If there’s anything we can take away from this primary, it’s that GOP base voters like people who are willing to antagonize the establishment. McGuire had all the advantages (including Trump’s endorsement) and he’s still struggling.

Steve King lost his 2020 primary and Trump didn't endorse Feenstra.

Madison Cawthorn lost his 2022 primary and Trump didn't endorse Edwards. In fact, he stood by Cawthorn.

It's possible to take out far-right freedom caucus members in a primary if they becomes problems for the caucus and there's an actual effort to do so. I'm not writing off primary challenges to any of them after these examples happened.

The problem with the aforementioned is that a good chunk of their core constituents was turned off by revelations from King & Cawthorne. As of now, Gatez & MTG are seemingly BELOVED by their constituents. That could change for Gatez if something serious comes out during the ethics probe, really doubtful that happens for Greene.

Also, Cawthorn's problem wasn't ideological at all. His problem was that he was an absolute weirdo nutjob freak - that video of him humping his (male) cousin, and talking about cocaine-fueled orgies, being prime examples of this.

Ideologically, he and Edwards are almost completely the same. The difference between the two is that Edwards isn't a distraction and an embarrassment. He doesn't grab headlines for all the wrong reasons the way Cawthorn kept doing.

King was indeed removed because of just how far-right he was, but honestly, he's much more an exception than the rule as far as that's concerned. I also don't have real concrete evidence, but I get the feeling that IA Republicans aren't that extreme. None of the 4 GOP representatives right now, nor either of the senators or Gov. Reynolds, are far-right.

What are your thoughts on the MTG/Boebert/Gaetz trio? Do any of them have weaknesses that could make them vulnerable in a primary?

Both MTG and Gaetz are safe in their seats for as long as they want them.
Boebert may be in trouble due to carpetbagging, obviously. Seems like she's getting lucky this year with a split opposition field, but if the opposition coalesces around a candidate in 2026, she might be cooked.

Agreed. Also, Boebert has a lot of massive personal baggage not unlike Cawthorn.
 
That being said, Gaetz seems like he has a lot of skeletons in his closet that could get him in trouble once they come out. MTG seems to have made a lot of enemies in congress too Bob Good style, though at least she still has Trump in her corner.

Agreed strongly with MTG. The day she s up and makes an enemy of Trump, she's done. But so far she's stayed safely in his good graces, so she's fine.

Re: Gaetz, I think he'll weather pretty much any storm. Keep in mind he's survived even allegations of literal pedophilia. I'm not certain he'd fare the same in a statewide primary, even with a Trump endorsement, so if I were him I'd probably stay put in Congress.

Also MTG is lucky her district is mostly rural and not suburban. If she was in a district more like Rich McCormick’s or Barry Loudermilk’s she’d be a lot easier to take out in a primary since well educated suburban Republicans probably aren’t her biggest fans.

This is an underrated liability for Boebert. Her base is rural WWC Coloradans, not Denver suburbanites. Having Douglas County being half the district is going to be a problem for her in a primary, and maybe even a general given the seat is Trump+18 and zooming leftward.

I doubt even Boebert will be in trouble in the GE anytime this decade. Trump+18 is a pretty huge margin and while it is indeed trending leftward pretty fast, it's no GA-06 or TX-07 (in their 2010s iterations, that is).

[Tekken_Guy]

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

For that to happen, Trump would have to turn on them because they weren't loyal... which seems highly highly unlikely.

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

The same MTG that Trump is encouraging to run for Senate and the same Gaetz Trump is encouraging to run for Governor? If there’s anything we can take away from this primary, it’s that GOP base voters like people who are willing to antagonize the establishment. McGuire had all the advantages (including Trump’s endorsement) and he’s still struggling.

Steve King lost his 2020 primary and Trump didn't endorse Feenstra.

Madison Cawthorn lost his 2022 primary and Trump didn't endorse Edwards. In fact, he stood by Cawthorn.

It's possible to take out far-right freedom caucus members in a primary if they becomes problems for the caucus and there's an actual effort to do so. I'm not writing off primary challenges to any of them after these examples happened.

The problem with the aforementioned is that a good chunk of their core constituents was turned off by revelations from King & Cawthorne. As of now, Gatez & MTG are seemingly BELOVED by their constituents. That could change for Gatez if something serious comes out during the ethics probe, really doubtful that happens for Greene.

Also, Cawthorn's problem wasn't ideological at all. His problem was that he was an absolute weirdo nutjob freak - that video of him humping his (male) cousin, and talking about cocaine-fueled orgies, being prime examples of this.

Ideologically, he and Edwards are almost completely the same. The difference between the two is that Edwards isn't a distraction and an embarrassment. He doesn't grab headlines for all the wrong reasons the way Cawthorn kept doing.

King was indeed removed because of just how far-right he was, but honestly, he's much more an exception than the rule as far as that's concerned. I also don't have real concrete evidence, but I get the feeling that IA Republicans aren't that extreme. None of the 4 GOP representatives right now, nor either of the senators or Gov. Reynolds, are far-right.

What are your thoughts on the MTG/Boebert/Gaetz trio? Do any of them have weaknesses that could make them vulnerable in a primary?

Both MTG and Gaetz are safe in their seats for as long as they want them.
Boebert may be in trouble due to carpetbagging, obviously. Seems like she's getting lucky this year with a split opposition field, but if the opposition coalesces around a candidate in 2026, she might be cooked.

Agreed. Also, Boebert has a lot of massive personal baggage not unlike Cawthorn.
 
That being said, Gaetz seems like he has a lot of skeletons in his closet that could get him in trouble once they come out. MTG seems to have made a lot of enemies in congress too Bob Good style, though at least she still has Trump in her corner.

Agreed strongly with MTG. The day she s up and makes an enemy of Trump, she's done. But so far she's stayed safely in his good graces, so she's fine.

Re: Gaetz, I think he'll weather pretty much any storm. Keep in mind he's survived even allegations of literal pedophilia. I'm not certain he'd fare the same in a statewide primary, even with a Trump endorsement, so if I were him I'd probably stay put in Congress.

Also MTG is lucky her district is mostly rural and not suburban. If she was in a district more like Rich McCormick’s or Barry Loudermilk’s she’d be a lot easier to take out in a primary since well educated suburban Republicans probably aren’t her biggest fans.

This is an underrated liability for Boebert. Her base is rural WWC Coloradans, not Denver suburbanites. Having Douglas County being half the district is going to be a problem for her in a primary, and maybe even a general given the seat is Trump+18 and zooming leftward.

I doubt even Boebert will be in trouble in the GE anytime this decade. Trump+18 is a pretty huge margin and while it is indeed trending leftward pretty fast, it's no GA-06 or TX-07 (in their 2010s iterations, that is).

Even if she never actually loses, underperforming by enough to need the NRCC to bail her out is not a good look. Think Steve King in 2018.

[Green Line]

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

For that to happen, Trump would have to turn on them because they weren't loyal... which seems highly highly unlikely.

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

The same MTG that Trump is encouraging to run for Senate and the same Gaetz Trump is encouraging to run for Governor? If there’s anything we can take away from this primary, it’s that GOP base voters like people who are willing to antagonize the establishment. McGuire had all the advantages (including Trump’s endorsement) and he’s still struggling.

Steve King lost his 2020 primary and Trump didn't endorse Feenstra.

Madison Cawthorn lost his 2022 primary and Trump didn't endorse Edwards. In fact, he stood by Cawthorn.

It's possible to take out far-right freedom caucus members in a primary if they becomes problems for the caucus and there's an actual effort to do so. I'm not writing off primary challenges to any of them after these examples happened.

The problem with the aforementioned is that a good chunk of their core constituents was turned off by revelations from King & Cawthorne. As of now, Gatez & MTG are seemingly BELOVED by their constituents. That could change for Gatez if something serious comes out during the ethics probe, really doubtful that happens for Greene.

Also, Cawthorn's problem wasn't ideological at all. His problem was that he was an absolute weirdo nutjob freak - that video of him humping his (male) cousin, and talking about cocaine-fueled orgies, being prime examples of this.

Ideologically, he and Edwards are almost completely the same. The difference between the two is that Edwards isn't a distraction and an embarrassment. He doesn't grab headlines for all the wrong reasons the way Cawthorn kept doing.

King was indeed removed because of just how far-right he was, but honestly, he's much more an exception than the rule as far as that's concerned. I also don't have real concrete evidence, but I get the feeling that IA Republicans aren't that extreme. None of the 4 GOP representatives right now, nor either of the senators or Gov. Reynolds, are far-right.

What are your thoughts on the MTG/Boebert/Gaetz trio? Do any of them have weaknesses that could make them vulnerable in a primary?

Both MTG and Gaetz are safe in their seats for as long as they want them.
Boebert may be in trouble due to carpetbagging, obviously. Seems like she's getting lucky this year with a split opposition field, but if the opposition coalesces around a candidate in 2026, she might be cooked.

Agreed. Also, Boebert has a lot of massive personal baggage not unlike Cawthorn.
 
That being said, Gaetz seems like he has a lot of skeletons in his closet that could get him in trouble once they come out. MTG seems to have made a lot of enemies in congress too Bob Good style, though at least she still has Trump in her corner.

Agreed strongly with MTG. The day she s up and makes an enemy of Trump, she's done. But so far she's stayed safely in his good graces, so she's fine.

Re: Gaetz, I think he'll weather pretty much any storm. Keep in mind he's survived even allegations of literal pedophilia. I'm not certain he'd fare the same in a statewide primary, even with a Trump endorsement, so if I were him I'd probably stay put in Congress.

Also MTG is lucky her district is mostly rural and not suburban. If she was in a district more like Rich McCormick’s or Barry Loudermilk’s she’d be a lot easier to take out in a primary since well educated suburban Republicans probably aren’t her biggest fans.

This is an underrated liability for Boebert. Her base is rural WWC Coloradans, not Denver suburbanites. Having Douglas County being half the district is going to be a problem for her in a primary, and maybe even a general given the seat is Trump+18 and zooming leftward.

I doubt even Boebert will be in trouble in the GE anytime this decade. Trump+18 is a pretty huge margin and while it is indeed trending leftward pretty fast, it's no GA-06 or TX-07 (in their 2010s iterations, that is).

Even if she never actually loses, underperforming by enough to need the NRCC to bail her out is not a good look. Think Steve King in 2018.

The Boebert obsession needs to stop.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

For that to happen, Trump would have to turn on them because they weren't loyal... which seems highly highly unlikely.

If Bob Good goes down that's certainly going to embolden efforts to take out the likes of MTG, Boebert and Gaetz in future primaries. MTG and Gaetz seem to have gotten off easy this year and the establishment really fumbled the ball with Boebert this cycle.

The same MTG that Trump is encouraging to run for Senate and the same Gaetz Trump is encouraging to run for Governor? If there’s anything we can take away from this primary, it’s that GOP base voters like people who are willing to antagonize the establishment. McGuire had all the advantages (including Trump’s endorsement) and he’s still struggling.

Steve King lost his 2020 primary and Trump didn't endorse Feenstra.

Madison Cawthorn lost his 2022 primary and Trump didn't endorse Edwards. In fact, he stood by Cawthorn.

It's possible to take out far-right freedom caucus members in a primary if they becomes problems for the caucus and there's an actual effort to do so. I'm not writing off primary challenges to any of them after these examples happened.

The problem with the aforementioned is that a good chunk of their core constituents was turned off by revelations from King & Cawthorne. As of now, Gatez & MTG are seemingly BELOVED by their constituents. That could change for Gatez if something serious comes out during the ethics probe, really doubtful that happens for Greene.

Also, Cawthorn's problem wasn't ideological at all. His problem was that he was an absolute weirdo nutjob freak - that video of him humping his (male) cousin, and talking about cocaine-fueled orgies, being prime examples of this.

Ideologically, he and Edwards are almost completely the same. The difference between the two is that Edwards isn't a distraction and an embarrassment. He doesn't grab headlines for all the wrong reasons the way Cawthorn kept doing.

King was indeed removed because of just how far-right he was, but honestly, he's much more an exception than the rule as far as that's concerned. I also don't have real concrete evidence, but I get the feeling that IA Republicans aren't that extreme. None of the 4 GOP representatives right now, nor either of the senators or Gov. Reynolds, are far-right.

What are your thoughts on the MTG/Boebert/Gaetz trio? Do any of them have weaknesses that could make them vulnerable in a primary?

Both MTG and Gaetz are safe in their seats for as long as they want them.
Boebert may be in trouble due to carpetbagging, obviously. Seems like she's getting lucky this year with a split opposition field, but if the opposition coalesces around a candidate in 2026, she might be cooked.

Agreed. Also, Boebert has a lot of massive personal baggage not unlike Cawthorn.
 
That being said, Gaetz seems like he has a lot of skeletons in his closet that could get him in trouble once they come out. MTG seems to have made a lot of enemies in congress too Bob Good style, though at least she still has Trump in her corner.

Agreed strongly with MTG. The day she s up and makes an enemy of Trump, she's done. But so far she's stayed safely in his good graces, so she's fine.

Re: Gaetz, I think he'll weather pretty much any storm. Keep in mind he's survived even allegations of literal pedophilia. I'm not certain he'd fare the same in a statewide primary, even with a Trump endorsement, so if I were him I'd probably stay put in Congress.

Also MTG is lucky her district is mostly rural and not suburban. If she was in a district more like Rich McCormick’s or Barry Loudermilk’s she’d be a lot easier to take out in a primary since well educated suburban Republicans probably aren’t her biggest fans.

This is an underrated liability for Boebert. Her base is rural WWC Coloradans, not Denver suburbanites. Having Douglas County being half the district is going to be a problem for her in a primary, and maybe even a general given the seat is Trump+18 and zooming leftward.

I doubt even Boebert will be in trouble in the GE anytime this decade. Trump+18 is a pretty huge margin and while it is indeed trending leftward pretty fast, it's no GA-06 or TX-07 (in their 2010s iterations, that is).

Even if she never actually loses, underperforming by enough to need the NRCC to bail her out is not a good look. Think Steve King in 2018.

The Boebert obsession needs to stop.

Well it will in five days, at least for the time being.

[GM Team Member and Acting PPT WB]

Please start trimming the quotes and try to avoid walls of text. Thank you.

going by the posts after this I guess the situation is

everyone else: "your concerns are noted and duly ignored"

[Schiff for Senate]

Please start trimming the quotes and try to avoid walls of text. Thank you.

going by the posts after this I guess the situation is

everyone else: "your concerns are noted and duly ignored"

Oop, I completely missed GM's post. Mb.

[Tekken_Guy]

Please start trimming the quotes and try to avoid walls of text. Thank you.

going by the posts after this I guess the situation is

everyone else: "your concerns are noted and duly ignored"

Oop, I completely missed GM's post. Mb.

Me too.

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

Good will be pursuing a comprehensive recount and investigation of the election: https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/21/politics/bob-good-virginia-primary/index.html

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Good will be pursuing a comprehensive recount and investigation of the election: https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/21/politics/bob-good-virginia-primary/index.html

A 300-vote margin is unlikely to change in a recount, unless I missed something and not all the initial mail-ins or early vote has been counted at all yet.

Also, LOL at him trying to cast doubt over the legitimacy of the election. I guess that means he thinks Trump helped McGuire commit voter fraud against him?

[Attorney General & LGC Deputy Dwarven Dragon]

Good will be pursuing a comprehensive recount and investigation of the election: https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/21/politics/bob-good-virginia-primary/index.html

A 300-vote margin is unlikely to change in a recount, unless I missed something and not all the initial mail-ins or early vote has been counted at all yet.

Also, LOL at him trying to cast doubt over the legitimacy of the election. I guess that means he thinks Trump helped McGuire commit voter fraud against him?

I think there are some absentees that don't get counted until Monday or Tuesday.

[Roll Roons]

Good will be pursuing a comprehensive recount and investigation of the election: https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/21/politics/bob-good-virginia-primary/index.html

A 300-vote margin is unlikely to change in a recount, unless I missed something and not all the initial mail-ins or early vote has been counted at all yet.

Also, LOL at him trying to cast doubt over the legitimacy of the election. I guess that means he thinks Trump helped McGuire commit voter fraud against him?

I think there are some absentees that don't get counted until Monday or Tuesday.

Only a very tiny handful and there's certainly not enough to change the outcome. The only way Good can win is if there was a huge tabulation error somewhere.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/reesejgorman/status/1805261002318938126

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

https://twitter.com/reesejgorman/status/1805261002318938126

Good is up big in Lynchburg, so that's weird.

Anyways, more vote came in this afternoon and McGuire expanded his lead by close to 100 votes.