This Wretched Hive Of Scum And Villainy

[Oryxslayer]

Payne's selection efforts are one of the best electoral subplots anywhere right now. Just perfect background comedy.

I've seen it editorialized as "How awful of a person do you have to be for the Tories to reject you, given their current predicament...multiple times..."

[CumbrianLefty]

One of his backers was ululating earlier today along the lines of "how crass you all are making fun of this WONDERFUL PERSON who has so much to offer!" To which somebody tartly replied "yes that is exactly what the Commons needs - another columnist"

[Torrain]

A Conservative candidate has been withdrawn one hour before the close of nominations:
https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1799082221284028894

[CumbrianLefty]

He was (somehow) replaced.

However, a certain S E A Payne still did not get a seat

[Torrain]

Yeah - surprised he didn’t get something at the very last minute. Maybe he’s waiting for the December 2024 Richmond and Northallerton by-election?

[CumbrianLefty]

You think it will be as late as *December*??

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah - surprised he didn’t get something at the very last minute. Maybe he’s waiting for the December 2024 Richmond and Northallerton by-election?

He seemingly has enough of an ego to not want to stand in some place like East London or Liverpool where a big loss is guaranteed.

Which makes him even worse of a candidate. Historically the Tories like people who have proven their party loyalty by standing to lose first, giving them time to work for incumbents and the local parties, before giving them the safe seat.

[Torrain]

He seemingly has enough of an ego to not want to stand in some place like East London or Liverpool where a big loss is guaranteed.

Which makes him even worse of a candidate. Historically the Tories like people who have proven their party loyalty by standing to lose first, giving them time to work for incumbents and the local parties, before giving them the safe seat.

Yeah - Johnson, Truss, May, Cameron, Shapps all took turns in no-hope seats before they got their own fiefdom. Was running through some 1997 results recently, and it's always startling how many familiar names and faces you come across in the coverage.

Scotland's also *very* big on this as a whole. 1997 is full of future SNP grandees looking young and tired as Labour romp past them to victory, and the Scottish Lib Dems have about five perennial candidates who all become MPs eventually.

Does seem rather presumptious that Payne thinks he can avoid his shift in the trenches. Honestly, I've always thought it would be best to start working for a party in a dire election, so you've got time to prove loyalty/mettle in the drudgery of opposition, and be well placed when the pendulum swings back.

You think it will be as late as *December*??

Maybe I'm giving the PM too much credit (2 months leadership race, 2 months dithering about whether to go, 1.5 months by-election campaign, btw). Maybe he does just jump on the 5th, and leave what's left of his party completely headless...

[CumbrianLefty]

Sunak using the current summit to baselessly attack Labour over Ukraine is pretty low even for him.

[Torrain]

Don’t plan to follow the horse-race on this one until we’ve got Westminster results.

But indications are that Shadow Justice Secretary Russell Findlay is the continuity candidate to lead the Scottish Tories, and the party establishment wants him coronated quickly to prevent a pro-disaffiliation candidate running against him.  

The likes of Andy Maciver seem convinced that we’ll get at least one challenger, possibly several disaffiliation candidates, but this is his personal hobbyhorse, so pinch of salt.

Findlay is low-key, but has some a more dramatic personal life than most of his colleagues, having survived an acid attack during his stint as an investigative journalist. This seems (not unreasonably) to have made something of an old-fashioned crime and punishment Tory of him. 

Basically every other member of the party with ambition is briefing they may run (including one who’s currently running for Westminster…), but that’s probably just jostling for frontbench positions - I’d be surprised if we get 2-3, let alone the 6-7 hedging their bets right now.

[Oryxslayer]

Don’t plan to follow the horse-race on this one until we’ve got Westminster results.

But indications are that Shadow Justice Secretary Russell Findlay is the continuity candidate to lead the Scottish Tories, and the party establishment wants him coronated quickly to prevent a pro-disaffiliation candidate running against him.  

Just to confirm: By disaffiliation you mean party divorce, right? Like the Scottish Con & Unionist Party becoming the say the Unionist party and focusing solely on the identity question? Or does disassociation mean something else in this context?

[Torrain]

Don’t plan to follow the horse-race on this one until we’ve got Westminster results.

But indications are that Shadow Justice Secretary Russell Findlay is the continuity candidate to lead the Scottish Tories, and the party establishment wants him coronated quickly to prevent a pro-disaffiliation candidate running against him.  

Just to confirm: By disaffiliation you mean party divorce, right? Like the Scottish Con & Unionist Party becoming the say the Unionist party and focusing solely on the identity question? Or does disassociation mean something else in this context?

Aye, exactly. This comes up every few years, but hasn't seriously been discussed since Murdo Fraser made it the centrepiece of his 2011 leadership bid. Only likely to be a serious prospect if the Conservative membership decide to embrace something *truly* toxic to Scottish voters, like putting Farage on the frontbench, or Braverman as leader.

Wouldn't be a single issue party (although I'm pretty sure they'd find some way to keep 'Unionist' in the name) - they'd probably use the additional freedom to pivot to a more Scotland-focused prospective (softer on immigration than the national party, slightly more centrist on economics, but still divided between the mix of social liberals and conservatives that's always divided the party in Holyrood). Optimists point more to the CDU-CSU Union, rather than UUP withdrawing from the Tory whip.

To be frank - members up here think Scotland should be able to accomodate a centre-right party (if nothing else, look at the energy, business, economy as run under Salmond, which was about as popular as a government has been here).