Special Election megathread (6/25: CO-4)

[Mr. Matt]

so uh what happened here. did he spoil his ballot?

* Unofficial results for write-in (WI) candidates will not be reported by the Boards of Elections on election night.

[Malarkey Decider]

In Rulli's State Senate District:

Rulli: 18,612 (54.9%)
Kripchack: 15,280 (45.1%)

Was Trump +17.5 in 2020, so swing of 7.7 to the left.

Outside of Rulli's District:

Rulli: 14,015 (54.3%)
Kripchack: 11,782 (45.7%)

Was Trump + 38!! in 2020, so a swing of 30 to the left.

Kind of crazy to see just how much of a difference that can make. 

Also, Turnout as a % of 2020:

Rulli's District: 19%
Outside of Rulli's District: 12%

[SuzerainOfSwat]

Don’t think this really means much, it’s an extremely low turnout middle of summer special election. That being said, if districts like OH-6 even have a 1-2 pt swing towards Biden in the general that’s the difference between victory and defeat.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

feeling a lot of parallels between this and the NY-23 special last cycle. Low-key race in a normally safe R seat is shockingly close on election day. Pattern of Ds overperforming in specials continues, and might point to something else...

At least NY-23 had a sizable base of college-educated liberals in Tompkins County. This district has nothing of the sort.

Which makes this weirder! You'd think if anything would cause a Dem to do well here it'd be Fmr. Ds voting for them but Mahoning, ground zero of recently converted ancestral Ds, barely voted for Kripchak.

[Brittain33]

As atrocious as turnout was, this election had more than twice the turnout of the TX-34 special in 2022 that Patrick Ruffini and Sean Trende hailed as a realignment of epic proportions.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/Vulst2/status/1800703251307966797

[Arizona Iced Tea]

OH-06 voted against the pro-abortion amendment last November by around 5% if anyone was interested.

[Spectator]

So in CO-04, even Polis lost 55-43. Bennet roughly matched Biden’s 57-41 loss here. There really isn’t much of an ancestral Democrat base here like there was in OH-06. Seems like the only interesting parts of the district are Douglas County and seeing if that flips, and if the Democrat can win Las Animas County, which despite going for Trump twice, is still fairly friendly to Dems downballot. It voted for Dems for Senate, Governor and SOS in 2022. I could see anywhere from an easy GOP win to a nail-biter fueled by a strong Democratic win in Douglas County and the rest of the seat sitting out. The Republican in the special was a mayor in Douglas County though, so that might negate some of Dems’ needed numbers out of there.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So in CO-04, even Polis lost 55-43. Bennet roughly matched Biden’s 57-41 loss here. There really isn’t much of an ancestral Democrat base here like there was in OH-06. Seems like the only interesting parts of the district are Douglas County and seeing if that flips, and if the Democrat can win Las Animas County, which despite going for Trump twice, is still fairly friendly to Dems downballot. It voted for Dems for Senate, Governor and SOS in 2022. I could see anywhere from an easy GOP win to a nail-biter fueled by a strong Democratic win in Douglas County and the rest of the seat sitting out. The Republican in the special was a mayor in Douglas County though, so that might negate some of Dems’ needed numbers out of there.

There may not be an ancestral Democrat base, but there is a current educated Democratic base out of the Denver suburb counties. If support and turnout for the Democrat is juiced there, and rural Republican areas do the opposite, this could definitely be another closer than expected race, even as the Republican should still win for sure.

[Tekken_Guy]

So in CO-04, even Polis lost 55-43. Bennet roughly matched Biden’s 57-41 loss here. There really isn’t much of an ancestral Democrat base here like there was in OH-06. Seems like the only interesting parts of the district are Douglas County and seeing if that flips, and if the Democrat can win Las Animas County, which despite going for Trump twice, is still fairly friendly to Dems downballot. It voted for Dems for Senate, Governor and SOS in 2022. I could see anywhere from an easy GOP win to a nail-biter fueled by a strong Democratic win in Douglas County and the rest of the seat sitting out. The Republican in the special was a mayor in Douglas County though, so that might negate some of Dems’ needed numbers out of there.

There may not be an ancestral Democrat base, but there is a current educated Democratic base out of the Denver suburb counties. If support and turnout for the Democrat is juiced there, and rural Republican areas do the opposite, this could definitely be another closer than expected race, even as the Republican should still win for sure.

Also, the Republican in the race is an extreme far-right nutjob with serious legal baggage who got blown out in Douglas in the 2022 governor primary to a candidate from Boulder County. He's a dude who could really get killed on persuasion.

If Lopez has a way closer than expected race, that's a bad omen for Boebert's long term prospects in the seat assuming she wins the primary. It's one of the fastest left-trending districts in the nation and has a lot worse demographic trends for the GOP than CO-03. While I don't think she'll lose in 2024 she could definitely make the district uncomfortably close Steve King 2018 style then possibly make the seat actually competitive in 2026 and beyond if she continues to seek re-election and isn't ousted in a primary.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So in CO-04, even Polis lost 55-43. Bennet roughly matched Biden’s 57-41 loss here. There really isn’t much of an ancestral Democrat base here like there was in OH-06. Seems like the only interesting parts of the district are Douglas County and seeing if that flips, and if the Democrat can win Las Animas County, which despite going for Trump twice, is still fairly friendly to Dems downballot. It voted for Dems for Senate, Governor and SOS in 2022. I could see anywhere from an easy GOP win to a nail-biter fueled by a strong Democratic win in Douglas County and the rest of the seat sitting out. The Republican in the special was a mayor in Douglas County though, so that might negate some of Dems’ needed numbers out of there.

There may not be an ancestral Democrat base, but there is a current educated Democratic base out of the Denver suburb counties. If support and turnout for the Democrat is juiced there, and rural Republican areas do the opposite, this could definitely be another closer than expected race, even as the Republican should still win for sure.

Also, the Republican in the race is an extreme far-right nutjob with serious legal baggage who got blown out in Douglas in the 2022 governor primary to a candidate from Boulder County. He's a dude who could really get killed on persuasion.

If Lopez has a way closer than expected race, that's a bad omen for Boebert's long term prospects in the seat assuming she wins the primary. It's one of the fastest left-trending districts in the nation and has a lot worse demographic trends for the GOP than CO-03. While I don't think she'll lose in 2024 she could definitely make the district uncomfortably close Steve King 2018 style then possibly make the seat actually competitive in 2026 and beyond if she continues to seek re-election and isn't ousted in a primary.

By that notion, Boebert could be cooked in a Trump midterm in CO-4.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

So in CO-04, even Polis lost 55-43. Bennet roughly matched Biden’s 57-41 loss here. There really isn’t much of an ancestral Democrat base here like there was in OH-06. Seems like the only interesting parts of the district are Douglas County and seeing if that flips, and if the Democrat can win Las Animas County, which despite going for Trump twice, is still fairly friendly to Dems downballot. It voted for Dems for Senate, Governor and SOS in 2022. I could see anywhere from an easy GOP win to a nail-biter fueled by a strong Democratic win in Douglas County and the rest of the seat sitting out. The Republican in the special was a mayor in Douglas County though, so that might negate some of Dems’ needed numbers out of there.

Las Animas County is not in CO-04. It was last decade, but now it's in CO-03.

[Tekken_Guy]

So in CO-04, even Polis lost 55-43. Bennet roughly matched Biden’s 57-41 loss here. There really isn’t much of an ancestral Democrat base here like there was in OH-06. Seems like the only interesting parts of the district are Douglas County and seeing if that flips, and if the Democrat can win Las Animas County, which despite going for Trump twice, is still fairly friendly to Dems downballot. It voted for Dems for Senate, Governor and SOS in 2022. I could see anywhere from an easy GOP win to a nail-biter fueled by a strong Democratic win in Douglas County and the rest of the seat sitting out. The Republican in the special was a mayor in Douglas County though, so that might negate some of Dems’ needed numbers out of there.

There may not be an ancestral Democrat base, but there is a current educated Democratic base out of the Denver suburb counties. If support and turnout for the Democrat is juiced there, and rural Republican areas do the opposite, this could definitely be another closer than expected race, even as the Republican should still win for sure.

Also, the Republican in the race is an extreme far-right nutjob with serious legal baggage who got blown out in Douglas in the 2022 governor primary to a candidate from Boulder County. He's a dude who could really get killed on persuasion.

If Lopez has a way closer than expected race, that's a bad omen for Boebert's long term prospects in the seat assuming she wins the primary. It's one of the fastest left-trending districts in the nation and has a lot worse demographic trends for the GOP than CO-03. While I don't think she'll lose in 2024 she could definitely make the district uncomfortably close Steve King 2018 style then possibly make the seat actually competitive in 2026 and beyond if she continues to seek re-election and isn't ousted in a primary.

By that notion, Boebert could be cooked in a Trump midterm in CO-4.

Also, watch out for her vote share in the upcoming primary. If she only gets by with a small plurality and the establishment GOP side has a strong showing in CO-03/05/08, she'll definitely be one of the most endangered incumbents in a primary in 2026. If she wins in a blowout and MAGA candidates do well across the rest of the state she'll be in better shape in future primaries.

So in CO-04, even Polis lost 55-43. Bennet roughly matched Biden’s 57-41 loss here. There really isn’t much of an ancestral Democrat base here like there was in OH-06. Seems like the only interesting parts of the district are Douglas County and seeing if that flips, and if the Democrat can win Las Animas County, which despite going for Trump twice, is still fairly friendly to Dems downballot. It voted for Dems for Senate, Governor and SOS in 2022. I could see anywhere from an easy GOP win to a nail-biter fueled by a strong Democratic win in Douglas County and the rest of the seat sitting out. The Republican in the special was a mayor in Douglas County though, so that might negate some of Dems’ needed numbers out of there.

Las Animas County is not in CO-04. It was last decade, but now it's in CO-03.

Boebert should be thankful Las Animas County was moved to CO-03.

[Nyvin]

So in CO-04, even Polis lost 55-43. Bennet roughly matched Biden’s 57-41 loss here. There really isn’t much of an ancestral Democrat base here like there was in OH-06. Seems like the only interesting parts of the district are Douglas County and seeing if that flips, and if the Democrat can win Las Animas County, which despite going for Trump twice, is still fairly friendly to Dems downballot. It voted for Dems for Senate, Governor and SOS in 2022. I could see anywhere from an easy GOP win to a nail-biter fueled by a strong Democratic win in Douglas County and the rest of the seat sitting out. The Republican in the special was a mayor in Douglas County though, so that might negate some of Dems’ needed numbers out of there.

Yeah, Douglas County and the Loveland area.   The rest of this district has zilch trending towards the Dems.

[Spectator]

So in CO-04, even Polis lost 55-43. Bennet roughly matched Biden’s 57-41 loss here. There really isn’t much of an ancestral Democrat base here like there was in OH-06. Seems like the only interesting parts of the district are Douglas County and seeing if that flips, and if the Democrat can win Las Animas County, which despite going for Trump twice, is still fairly friendly to Dems downballot. It voted for Dems for Senate, Governor and SOS in 2022. I could see anywhere from an easy GOP win to a nail-biter fueled by a strong Democratic win in Douglas County and the rest of the seat sitting out. The Republican in the special was a mayor in Douglas County though, so that might negate some of Dems’ needed numbers out of there.

There may not be an ancestral Democrat base, but there is a current educated Democratic base out of the Denver suburb counties. If support and turnout for the Democrat is juiced there, and rural Republican areas do the opposite, this could definitely be another closer than expected race, even as the Republican should still win for sure.

Also, the Republican in the race is an extreme far-right nutjob with serious legal baggage who got blown out in Douglas in the 2022 governor primary to a candidate from Boulder County. He's a dude who could really get killed on persuasion.

If Lopez has a way closer than expected race, that's a bad omen for Boebert's long term prospects in the seat assuming she wins the primary. It's one of the fastest left-trending districts in the nation and has a lot worse demographic trends for the GOP than CO-03. While I don't think she'll lose in 2024 she could definitely make the district uncomfortably close Steve King 2018 style then possibly make the seat actually competitive in 2026 and beyond if she continues to seek re-election and isn't ousted in a primary.

By that notion, Boebert could be cooked in a Trump midterm in CO-4.

Also, watch out for her vote share in the upcoming primary. If she only gets by with a small plurality and the establishment GOP side has a strong showing in CO-03/05/08, she'll definitely be one of the most endangered incumbents in a primary in 2026. If she wins in a blowout and MAGA candidates do well across the rest of the state she'll be in better shape in future primaries.

So in CO-04, even Polis lost 55-43. Bennet roughly matched Biden’s 57-41 loss here. There really isn’t much of an ancestral Democrat base here like there was in OH-06. Seems like the only interesting parts of the district are Douglas County and seeing if that flips, and if the Democrat can win Las Animas County, which despite going for Trump twice, is still fairly friendly to Dems downballot. It voted for Dems for Senate, Governor and SOS in 2022. I could see anywhere from an easy GOP win to a nail-biter fueled by a strong Democratic win in Douglas County and the rest of the seat sitting out. The Republican in the special was a mayor in Douglas County though, so that might negate some of Dems’ needed numbers out of there.

Las Animas County is not in CO-04. It was last decade, but now it's in CO-03.

Boebert should be thankful Las Animas County was moved to CO-03.

Curious why you say that? Would Las Animas being in CO-04 in 2022 have resulted in CO-03 taking in more blue areas? Boebert and Frisch basically tied in Las Animas per CNN.

[Tekken_Guy]

So in CO-04, even Polis lost 55-43. Bennet roughly matched Biden’s 57-41 loss here. There really isn’t much of an ancestral Democrat base here like there was in OH-06. Seems like the only interesting parts of the district are Douglas County and seeing if that flips, and if the Democrat can win Las Animas County, which despite going for Trump twice, is still fairly friendly to Dems downballot. It voted for Dems for Senate, Governor and SOS in 2022. I could see anywhere from an easy GOP win to a nail-biter fueled by a strong Democratic win in Douglas County and the rest of the seat sitting out. The Republican in the special was a mayor in Douglas County though, so that might negate some of Dems’ needed numbers out of there.

There may not be an ancestral Democrat base, but there is a current educated Democratic base out of the Denver suburb counties. If support and turnout for the Democrat is juiced there, and rural Republican areas do the opposite, this could definitely be another closer than expected race, even as the Republican should still win for sure.

Also, the Republican in the race is an extreme far-right nutjob with serious legal baggage who got blown out in Douglas in the 2022 governor primary to a candidate from Boulder County. He's a dude who could really get killed on persuasion.

If Lopez has a way closer than expected race, that's a bad omen for Boebert's long term prospects in the seat assuming she wins the primary. It's one of the fastest left-trending districts in the nation and has a lot worse demographic trends for the GOP than CO-03. While I don't think she'll lose in 2024 she could definitely make the district uncomfortably close Steve King 2018 style then possibly make the seat actually competitive in 2026 and beyond if she continues to seek re-election and isn't ousted in a primary.

By that notion, Boebert could be cooked in a Trump midterm in CO-4.

Also, watch out for her vote share in the upcoming primary. If she only gets by with a small plurality and the establishment GOP side has a strong showing in CO-03/05/08, she'll definitely be one of the most endangered incumbents in a primary in 2026. If she wins in a blowout and MAGA candidates do well across the rest of the state she'll be in better shape in future primaries.

So in CO-04, even Polis lost 55-43. Bennet roughly matched Biden’s 57-41 loss here. There really isn’t much of an ancestral Democrat base here like there was in OH-06. Seems like the only interesting parts of the district are Douglas County and seeing if that flips, and if the Democrat can win Las Animas County, which despite going for Trump twice, is still fairly friendly to Dems downballot. It voted for Dems for Senate, Governor and SOS in 2022. I could see anywhere from an easy GOP win to a nail-biter fueled by a strong Democratic win in Douglas County and the rest of the seat sitting out. The Republican in the special was a mayor in Douglas County though, so that might negate some of Dems’ needed numbers out of there.

Las Animas County is not in CO-04. It was last decade, but now it's in CO-03.

Boebert should be thankful Las Animas County was moved to CO-03.

Curious why you say that? Would Las Animas being in CO-04 in 2022 have resulted in CO-03 taking in more blue areas? Boebert and Frisch basically tied in Las Animas per CNN.

I was mixing it up with Otero, my bad.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

So in CO-04, even Polis lost 55-43. Bennet roughly matched Biden’s 57-41 loss here. There really isn’t much of an ancestral Democrat base here like there was in OH-06. Seems like the only interesting parts of the district are Douglas County and seeing if that flips, and if the Democrat can win Las Animas County, which despite going for Trump twice, is still fairly friendly to Dems downballot. It voted for Dems for Senate, Governor and SOS in 2022. I could see anywhere from an easy GOP win to a nail-biter fueled by a strong Democratic win in Douglas County and the rest of the seat sitting out. The Republican in the special was a mayor in Douglas County though, so that might negate some of Dems’ needed numbers out of there.

he was mayor nearly 30 years ago. Not really recent enough for that to matter much imo.

[Spectator]

So in CO-04, even Polis lost 55-43. Bennet roughly matched Biden’s 57-41 loss here. There really isn’t much of an ancestral Democrat base here like there was in OH-06. Seems like the only interesting parts of the district are Douglas County and seeing if that flips, and if the Democrat can win Las Animas County, which despite going for Trump twice, is still fairly friendly to Dems downballot. It voted for Dems for Senate, Governor and SOS in 2022. I could see anywhere from an easy GOP win to a nail-biter fueled by a strong Democratic win in Douglas County and the rest of the seat sitting out. The Republican in the special was a mayor in Douglas County though, so that might negate some of Dems’ needed numbers out of there.

he was mayor nearly 30 years ago. Not really recent enough for that to matter much imo.

Oh interesting. Wouldn’t have guessed that based on only the Wiki article. Yeah, he probably won’t have much if any home-county boost like Rulli did.

[wbrocks67]

What will be the excuse then if Dems overperform here too?

https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1802743177176130008

[wbrocks67]

Also-is there any info on CO-04? Fundraising, etc?

[Spectator]

Colorado has party affiliation, so there should be a way to track rate of return by party. Someone more internet-savvy than I can probably fond it, but i can’t find it on the CO SOS webpage.

[kwabbit]

Colorado has party affiliation, so there should be a way to track rate of return by party. Someone more internet-savvy than I can probably fond it, but i can’t find it on the CO SOS webpage.

I searched for like 30 min and couldn't find it. Very annoying, given that Jefferson County has this nice dashboard with partisan data:

Jefferson County Election Dashboard

[wbrocks67]

That same guy that I posted the tweet from above said that the first statewide update should be tonight (w/ reg data) so we may have something soon?

[SnowLabrador]

What will be the excuse then if Dems overperform here too?

https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1802743177176130008

It's that Colorado is trending leftward very quickly, and that Democrats are the high-propensity voters now, while Republicans are only going to vote for Trump.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Colorado has party affiliation, so there should be a way to track rate of return by party. Someone more internet-savvy than I can probably fond it, but i can’t find it on the CO SOS webpage.

I searched for like 30 min and couldn't find it. Very annoying, given that Jefferson County has this nice dashboard with partisan data:

Jefferson County Election Dashboard

The dashboard for Douglas County says that the ballot counts are based on weight, so I'm guessing that they haven't been processed yet.