Special Election megathread (6/25: CO-4)

[Adam Griffin]

And perhaps this will be the election where people figure out - hopefully - that Clyburn isn't some kingmaker in Democratic primaries, and that his endorsement is a lagging indicator rather than a leading one: that he almost always endorses the candidate who has the best chance of winning (and the rest of the time, as is likely the case here, endorses a candidate out of sheer pettiness).

[Adam Griffin]

And perhaps this will be the election where people figure out - hopefully - that Clyburn isn't some kingmaker in Democratic primaries, and that his endorsement is a lagging indicator rather than a leading one: that he almost always endorses the candidate who has the best chance of winning (and the rest of the time, as is likely the case here, endorses a candidate out of sheer pettiness).

You can call it "petty" to endorse the opponent of a woman who insults and degrades you, but Nina will find that such "pettiness" is very common in the halls of Congress.

People don't want to work with an asshole.  People root against assholes and try to help them lose.  Even if her colleagues agreed with Nina on everything (and at this point it's unclear what she actually believes since she's running on "expanded access to healthcare" which her own campaign once compared to 9/11) they would find someone else to work with who doesn't call them stupid corrupt election thieves behind their back.

Nobody forces Nina to behave like this.  She does it to herself because she's a terrible person.

I can call it petty, and so would anybody else who understands the definition of the word.

I fully understand how Congress works: that is precisely the point that people like Turner were making. And yet...all too many holier-than-thou types such as yourself squawk about concepts such as compromise, decency, cooperation and working together. Personally, I'm A-OK with pettiness and in fact embrace it - but I don't subsequently turn around and become morally outraged by those I don't like for doing so while extolling the virtues of those who I do (unless, of course, they themselves are hypocrites). That is what tangibly separates people like me from people like you: I'm sh[inks]tty all the time, whereas you're hypocritical about it depending on the situation and whether it's one of your "team members" or not. People like Clyburn and Turner have to work together for the betterment of all, irrespective of personal feelings, right?



If you spend more time getting butt-hurt about what people in your own party say and do than what people outside of it - who clearly want to burn it all down - do and say, then maybe you picked the wrong party? From your own worldview, the same can be said about p-e-t-t-y representatives like Clyburn. Look to someone like Pelosi who has had far more vitriol thrown at her by candidates and members of Congress, only to embrace them when the time comes, and contrast that to Clyburn - who was still publicly ranting and raving about AOC after she was elected because she didn't kiss his ring.

[Adam Griffin]

Spoiler alert: he's not talking about Shontel Brown. He's talking about other examples where the Democratic Party establishment excuses or otherwise elevates former Republicans (or those who have carried water for them) while freaking out over people who haven't voted Republican but who don't carry buckets worth of the establishment's bile.

If you need an example from just this week alone, let's look at how the most populous persuadable nation in the most geopolitically volatile region in the world will now have an ambassador who spent years s[inks]tting on the Democratic Party and blocking its agenda, but gets forgiven instantly because he once said "Muh Trump Is Just a Bridge Too Far!!!11".

[Adam Griffin]

Warrensville Heights Councilman Switches Endorsement from Shontel Brown to Nina Turner, Invites Other to Do the Same

In a video posted to YouTube by Turner's campaign, Stewart said his change of heart was the result of negative campaign ads and the flow of dark money to Northeast Ohio, which he said was prioritizing corporate interests over the people.



"We need someone who is going to stick with the issues," Stewart said, "and that person is Nina Turner."

Stewart is from Shontel Brown's home community of Warrensville Heights — also the political birthplace of Marcia Fudge — and he encouraged other elected leaders there and elsewhere to consider changing their endorsement.

"You have to have a conviction," he said. "You have to have a concern for the people."

[Adam Griffin]

I've had "SHONTEL BROWN? GURRRRRRRRL!" stuck in my head all day.

[Adam Griffin]

Deeply Disturbing that GMA and others are STRAIGHT-UP ATTACKING A BLACK WOMAN during a Democratic Party primary campaign. Not very loyal! One might guess that they're just a bunch of angry Bernie Bros.

Gurrrrrrls! Y'all need to stop.

[Adam Griffin]

Unfortunately, turnout reports from earlier are probably not as useful as some think. This primary hasn't been a battle of race or ideology so much as it has been a generational battle.

Now, just ask yourself: what are older people on a Tuesday doing, and what are younger people on a Tuesday doing? Who has a tendency to vote before Election Day, and who has a tendency to vote on Election Day?

Just some food for thought.

[Adam Griffin]

You'd think people on this board would have learned about wild extrapolations from early unofficial turnout reports by now. We're not learning anything new until 7:30, y'all, go read a book or watch a movie or something until then

Here's Griff's patented Election Day Hysteria Generator!

Have fun

Early reports of [adjective] turnout in [location] suggest [noun] for [party/candidate]

[Adam Griffin]

As of now, turnout in Cuyahoga is at 14.92%.



Highest turnout precincts thus far in Cuyahoga:



Turnout by city:

[Adam Griffin]

Ran the turnout figures by city above for Cuyahoga alone in DRA. Not a huge difference, but the areas with higher turnout as a bloc are majority-white, while the areas with below turnout are majority-black.

Cuyahoga Cities (as of 5:45 PM ET):
Above Average Turnout: VAP 53.6% White, 41.3% Black; Biden +61.2
Below Average Turnout: VAP 50.1% Black, 40.3% White; Biden +57.1

[Adam Griffin]

Turnout in Cuyahoga now at 15.99% (6:28 PM ET): 67,419 ballots cast (40,974 cast today).

There'll be more voters in this contest in Cuyahoga alone than in all of OH-11 in the 2018 Democratic primary (65,905). Likely on track for 73-75k ballots total out of Cuyahoga alone (with perhaps another 7-10k out of Summit). For reference, there were 78k (CD-wide) in the 2020 primary. Fairly high turnout for a special it would seem.

[Adam Griffin]

Looks like we'll reach 17% turnout in Cuyahoga. Still no news on Summit.

[Adam Griffin]

Summit County gives us our first results:

Turner wins in-person 52-56
Brown wins mail 58-36

[Adam Griffin]

Cuyahoga (all mail):

[Adam Griffin]

Literally everything at the moment is early vote (all mail in Cuyahoga; about 50/50 in Summit, with Turner winning in-person there versus Brown winning mail), and it shouldn't be surprising to anybody that Brown would do very well with older voters - who use mail ballots disproportionately. I wouldn't read too much into this yet (though these numbers aren't great for Turner).

[Adam Griffin]

No idea about benchmarks, but Cuyahoga has 26k early votes in all and around 19k have already been reported in Cuyahoga - with no early in-person counted. I'd guess virtually all of the Cuyahoga mail ballots are now counted.

Looks like the Cuyahoga and Summit VBM percentages are similar (Brown +20), so I guess I'd say Turner needs to emulate her early in-person margins in Summit for Cuyahoga as well (winning them at minimum), and then barnstorming with ED vote.

[Adam Griffin]

NYT showing an extra 7,500 votes all of a sudden out of Cuyahoga I'm not seeing on the election board websites, with Turner winning those 53-47.

Now 53-40 Brown overall (if accurate).

EDIT: WaPo showing them too.

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ I imagine those are in-person early votes (just guessing, based on size and margin). That would again line up perfectly with Summit: Brown winning mail vote by 20 in both counties while Turner wins early in-person by 6-7 in both counties. Should still be a few thousand more early votes left in Cuyahoga.

Now we just need to see what happened on Election Day...should be a much younger audience and therefore more favorable to Turner (minus any late-breaking trends).

[Adam Griffin]

Summit dumped about 120 ED votes: Brown 62-49 (virtually identical margin to previous vote).

[Adam Griffin]

380 ED votes from Summit now: Turner leads 190-169 (50-44%).

[Adam Griffin]

How many total votes are we expecting from Summit?

Originally I was thinking 7-10k based on its share of the CD (VAP). However, based on RVs (72k) and if it has a comparable turnout to Cuyahoga (17%), it could be as high as 15k (Ds & Rs combined, though Ds seem to be >90% of vote). Right now around 2,500 votes have been counted.

[Adam Griffin]

Just posting here to keep a running tally whenever another dump arrives:

[Adam Griffin]

Right now Turner would need ~54% of what likely remains overall.

[Adam Griffin]

OH-11 is straight-up attacking a black woman! Damn!

Gurllllll!


https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1422713551798652929

[Adam Griffin]

Another Cuyahoga dump from somewhere: 183-165 Brown (assuming for the time being that this is still mail).