United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Survation MRP is now out: [link]

• LAB 487
• CON 71
• LD 43
• SNP 26
• RFM 3
• PC 2

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Is the debate viewable at all from outside the UK?

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

A different way of allocating topline figures, it's worth noting. Reform don't lead in any seats according to their MRP, but have (for example) a 25% chance in 12 and so they are given 3 in the topline. In Clacton for example they aren't ahead but in a three way race, similarly in Goole and Pocklington. That's different to how other pollsters have done it. In light of that the Green figure of 0 is more startling.

By my count, the Tories are leading in 52 seats, so the topline is giving them a considerable number of additional seats where they are not actually ahead in the literal projected result.

Meanwhile, I count 46 for the Lib Dems, so they are very nearly projected to be ahead in more seats than the Conservatives.

That would be a truly astounding result if it were to come to pass.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Is the debate viewable at all from outside the UK?

Well, answered my own question Apparently ITV has a youtube stream for it:

https://www.youtube.com/live/heP8-evLKvA

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Starmer answer to the line about would you use private insurance to save someone you love was awful - comes off as cold and automated.

He should have said something like, "Under Rishi Sunak's Conservative NHS that they spent 14 years destroying, or under the Labour NHS after we have fixed it? If you are talking about the Conservative NHS, absolutely. On the other hand, if you are talking about the NHS after Labour gets finished rebuilding it, nobody will have to think about what to do if the NHS isn't there for them - not even Rishi Sunak."

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

If you tried to book into a private hospital under such circumstances, then they would only transfer you to the nearest A&E department (which would likely not be far).

The way I at least interpreted the question was broader. I don't have a transcript with exact wording or anything, but:

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/keir-starmer-dismisses-nonsense-tax-213352201.htm

In another section, Sunak said he would use private health care if he had a loved-one on a long waiting list for surgery, while Starmer said he would not.

Asked the question, the Labour leader said: “No.

“I don’t use private health. I use the NHS. That’s where my wife works, in one of the big hospitals; as I said it runs through my DNA.”

It seems to me like that would include things like going to another country to get surgery which was not available in the UK either at all or in a timely manner, which in some cases could certainly be life saving. For example, maybe some novel specialized cancer treatment or an organ transplant or something.

Not saying that you would do that to save a loved one, if that was the only option and you had the means/ability to do so, seems a bit heartless and inhuman, similar to the Michael Dukakis debate flub in the US 1988 election about what if his daughter were murdered. That, at least, seems like a very different question from whether you support NHS privatization or partial privatization.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Per Crick, they found a new candidate, Laura Evans, the Tory candidate for Greater Manchester Mayor in 2021 and 2924.

Hmm, sounds like things are even more dire than anyone thought.

If the Tories have a time machine and are bringing back candidates from 900 years in the future, but even with all the knowledge of the future they still managed to govern so poorly...

You would think they would have brought back some future wonder technology. So this is bad. It means that in the future, technological progress must have stopped.

Sounds like humanity is doomed!  

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Rayner let the Tories off the hook by describing their time in power as “fourteen years of abstract failure”.

I think she meant to say abject, but misspoke (or could it possibly be her northern accent? - I think not, but maybe)

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

In yet a further sign that I need professional help, I had a dream last night about the UK election. The Workers Party won 5 seats and something called the "Crime Party" (which was, confusingly, anti-crime) won 2 seats south of London.

I would totally vote for the Crime Party!

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

https://www.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1799112386273845446

ElectionMapsUK
Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 41% (+1)
CON: 19% (=)
RFM: 16% (-1)
LDM: 11% (+1)
GRN: 7% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @YouGov, 5-6 Jun.
Changes w/ 3-4 Jun.

Still looking good for labour...

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

https://www.twitter.com/SimonDalling/status/1799134316380709331

And actually, even better:

@ElectionMapsUK @YouGov This👆would give the Conservatives on 48 seats and make the LidDems the official opposition.

Liberals replace Tories as one of the 2 main parties in the 2 party system, 100 years after being replaced themselves by Labour? Imagine emerging from the wilderness after... a century...

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

https://www.twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1799494098526822476

Insane movement, Labour +4 in this poll

Savanta_UK
🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention for Sunday
@Telegraph

📈20pt Labour lead - highest since Jan

🌹Lab 46 (+4)
🌳Con 26 (-2)
➡️Reform 11 (+2)
🔶LD 10 (+1)
🌍Green 3 (-1)
🎗️SNP 2 (-1)
⬜️Other 3 (-2)

2,095 UK adults, 5-7 June

(chg 31 May-2 June)

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

https://www.twitter.com/TheNewsAgents/status/1799111657505104287

https://www.twitter.com/TheNewsAgents/status/1799111657505104287

TheNewsAgents
“This country is dead. Sharia law is king.”

@lewis_goodall went door-knocking with Reform Party activists in Andy Burnham’s former constituency, Leigh, in Greater Manchester.

Full episode out on Sunday 🎧

The video is funny, but also frightening. Not really surprising though.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/infighting-on-the-beaches-behind-the-scenes-of-the-d-day-debacle-6rlvt8nr6

However, the decision for the prime minister to abandon the D-Day commemoration, after the Tories made security and national service cornerstones of their campaign, left MPs incredulous. Cabinet ministers responded with impotent rage, criticising Sunak’s political judgment and appetite for the job. The prime minister has repeatedly complained privately that foreign affairs take up too much of his time and he has little interest in the ceremonial aspects of his job.

A Tory who is no fan of Boris Johnson said: “There is absolutely no way that if you presented this to Boris or indeed to Theresa [May], telling them it was a waste of time, that they would not have overruled that advice. This is the worst operation I have ever seen. From the prime minister down there is a combination of arrogance and sheer incompetence.”

...

Farage’s entry into the race led to Reform closing to within two points of the Tories, putting them on course to win fewer than 100 seats on July 4 — their worst performance in two centuries. Sunak’s team is now resigned to a “crossover poll” which puts Reform ahead, but is hopeful that raising further questions about Labour will persuade voters not to grant Starmer a huge majority.

...

Labour, which is expected to unveil its plan on Thursday, will have no new tax rises in its manifesto but will focus, at McSweeney’s insistence, on reform of the public services. “Labour used to make the argument that the pie ought to be more equitably distributed. But the Tories have eaten all of the pie and burned down the kitchen.”

The problem for Sunak is that a large number of Tories now share that view.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Deltapoll for the Daily Mail

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13509231/conservatives-election-wipeout-labour-majority-mail-sunday-poll.html

Labour 46 (-2)
Conservatives 21 (-4)
Reform 12 (+3)
Liberal Democrats 9 (-1)
Greens 5 (+1)
SNP 4 (+2)

{2,010 British adults 6th – 8th June 2024}

Comparison is from this previous poll from the same pollster from 31st May - 3rd June 2024 (https://deltapoll.co.uk/polls/voteint240603)

Don't take the seat projections too seriously because it is just uniform swing.

Labour is heading for a majority of 416 in an election result which would prove cataclysmic for the Tory Party, according to a new Mail on Sunday poll.

The Deltapoll survey gives Sir Keir Starmer's party a 25-point lead, which would reduce the Conservatives to a Liberal Democrat-sized rump of 37 seats.

Even Prime Minister Rishi Sunak would lose his Yorkshire seat, despite defending a majority of more than 27,000.

The polling company carefully caveats that the projection is based on a crude uniform swing, and should be treated with caution.

Nonetheless, the poll, which was partly conducted in the aftermath of the furore over Rishi Sunak's early return from the D-Day commemorations, highlights the scale of Sunak's task in the run up to the July 4th vote.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Warning about every poll etc but hilarious that the Tories are running a presidential campaign around someone so disliked


https://x.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1800212581069816014?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

GE numbers:

https://www.twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1800211448234467631

Labour leads by 26%.

Tied-lowest ever Conservative %.

Joint-highest ever Reform UK %.

🇬🇧 Westminster VI (7/6-10/6):

Labour 45% (+3)
Conservative 19% (–)
Reform UK 17% (–)
Lib Dem 10% (-2)
Green 5% (-1)
SNP 3% (–)
Other 1% (-1)

Changes +/- 5/6-6/6

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Teasers from another poll which is supposed to be released later today:

https://twitter.com/RestIsPolitics/status/1800165476259057940

🔴 Labour ➡️ The Greens?🌳🤔

Labour seems to be losing some of its younger voters (ages 18-34) to the Green Party, who are up by 5️⃣ points with that age group this week 🟢📈

For all the details from our latest The Rest Is Politics X JLP poll, tune into tomorrow’s podcast to find out more...

https://x.com/MrHarryCole/status/1800148982020317451

Brutal @JLPartnersPolls
 latest on the Tory 2019 vote bleeding out

20 per cent to Reform, 15 per cent to Labour.

Just 4 in 10 staying with Conservatives.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

More likely is just a bad sample. Happens.

To the degree it is true though, I would think an increase in LibDem support is not really good for the Conservatives though, because a lot of it will probably be tactical voting in the south/south-east. Even though Labour declines, it probably would be roughly a wash in terms of seat count.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Poll of Hartlepool by We Think (formerly known as Omnisis)

Lab 58
Reform 23
Con 10
Lib Dem 6
Green 2

What's the record vote share change between a by-election and the following General?

The current Electoral Calculus prediction for that constituency is:

Lab 40.3
Reform 9.7
Con 37.2
Lib Dem 2.3
Green 1.8

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/calcwork23.py?seat=Hartlepool

So that seems like a very good poll for Labour and also Reform, and horrible for the Tories. However, it could also suggest that a fairly large share of the Reform vote might come from Labour-leave areas, which could make the reform vote less efficient? Or maybe the Electoral Calculus model is a bit dubious.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

https://www.twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1801291564997636520

Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) on X
Labour leads by 24%.

Lowest EVER Conservative % (worse than Truss).

Highest Lib Dem % in 2024.

🇬🇧 Westminster Voting Intention (12-13 June):

Labour 42% (-3)
Conservative 18% (-1)
Reform 17% (–)
Lib Dem 13% (+3)
Green 5% (–)
SNP 3% (–)
Other 1% (–)

Conservatives dropping even further (but still ever so barely slightly ahead of Reform), and this is the 2nd recent poll with a significant Lib Dem gain.

This is getting into the territory where the Tories could actually come in 3rd in seats.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

5 years of Ed Davey, Leader of the Opposition would be really fun.

I guess he would probably bring a trampoline into Parliament and ask his PM Questions while bouncing up and down.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

If Reform gets ahead, I think they might get 5th.

I suspect most of the seat projections probably understate the Reform seat count if they do actually end up getting around as many popular votes as the Tories. There will be some places where Reform ends up doing better or worse than their national average, and if the Tories are very low, then Reform (as well as obviously the Lib Dems and of course Labour) will win some of those. The models have no real idea which seats those will be, but there will have to be seats like that somewhere or other.

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

The new Reform Campaign theme is about to become:

"The PM will either be Keir Starmer or Nigel Farage. Don't vote for the Tories, it is a wasted vote, vote Reform if you want to stop Starmer, don't let the Conservatives be a spoiler splitting the vote."

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

Here's a stream link for the ITV debate which is about to start in 5 minutes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mtUtd3EMDU

[Almost Anyone But Biden Or Trump (ABBoT but not Greg Abbott)]

2 other new polls:


This first one also has a lib dem gain, so looks like that is probably a real trend

https://www.twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1801296925775233292

New poll

@BMGResearch for @theipaper



Labour 41%
Conservatives 21%
Reform 14%
Lib Dems 12%
Greens 6%

Little movement in last week - Tories need something to turn up...

Details and more: https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/labour-trusted-more-national-security-damage-d-day-blunder-3109481

https://www.twitter.com/Samfr/status/1801339155571413492

Labour 43
Conservatives 19
Reform 16
Lib Dems 11
Greens 6
SNP 2
Other 3

Techne poll somewhat less dramatic