2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Apparently Adam Frisch is running again in 2024.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Kemp running for Senate seems like a Sununu-type situation, where any positive momentum they had as governor could seriously run into issues in a more partisan senate run. Kemp got away with hiding a lot of his super conservative positions this time around as Governor; he wouldn't be able to do that in a senate run.

Kemp is a strong candidate whereas Ossof is not. If 2026 is a Biden midterm, the race starts as lean R at the very least.

Osoff is a solid incumbent who ran a really good campaign in 2020 and upset a supposedly strong incumbent in a race no one seriously expected him to win (IIRC even Schumer basically wrote off his race a week or two before the runoff).  Kemp is a strong candidate on paper with some major vulnerabilities that tend to get overlooked (to the point that it’s unclear whether he’d actually be anywhere near as strong as he appears at first glance, I don’t think he is although that’s not to say he’s a weak candidate either) who may or may not be able to win the primary (Perdue’s gubernatorial campaign was a complete dumpster fire and thus not a very good test).  Moreover, Georgia is rapidly trending more and more Democratic by the day and the greater Atlanta metro is absolutely zooming to  the left with no end in sight.  

Barring something unexpected or a massive Republication wave, the best case scenario for Republicans is probably that an Osoff vs. Perdue race starts Tilt D, but four years is a long time.  By then, it may very well start off Lean D.  Of course, it’s really way too early to seriously discuss this race, but if we’re going to do so then there is absolutely no reason to think Republicans would start out the favorites here (with or without Kemp).  

2022 is probably the best chance Republicans will have at a Georgia Senate seat for quite a while barring something truly unexpected given that Democrats have two extremely strong incumbent Senators who are pretty young by Senate standards and the greater Atlanta metro/Atlanta suburbs’ trends. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/michelle_shen10/status/1624049219613990912

The DCCC should be going all out recruiting Anthony Brindisi. Not getting him back in the race when Katko announced his retirement was one of the biggest blunders they made last cycle.

Yeah this seat was drawn perfectly for him.  It seems like they didn’t even try to get him to run here in 2022.

They tried, but he was dead set on running for some Judgeship for reasons unknown (he lost badly).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/michelle_shen10/status/1624049219613990912

The DCCC should be going all out recruiting Anthony Brindisi. Not getting him back in the race when Katko announced his retirement was one of the biggest blunders they made last cycle.

Yeah this seat was drawn perfectly for him.  It seems like they didn’t even try to get him to run here in 2022.

They tried, but he was dead set on running for some Judgeship for reasons unknown (he lost badly).

He ran for the judgeship in 2021.  He still carried the current NY-22 in that race.

Yeah, but he didn’t run b/c he was focusing on that race

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Interesting!

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1624430030775373827

I call BS

Edit: To be clear, the map may end up largely unchanged, but it won't be because DeWine has any reluctance about trying to enact a scorched earth gerrymander.  I believe it isn't a high priority for him, but he'd also think nothing of backing one.  DeWine will support whatever map the State House and State Senate can agree on.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Mondaire Jones is gearing up to run for his old seat again, setting up a primary fight between him and Liz Whitmer Gereghty (Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer's sister):

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/28/dem-primary-exlawmaker-govs-sister-00094269

Gereghty would be a stronger candidate although I am not sold on her either.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Split Ticket's first Senate ratings:
https://split-ticket.org/2023/05/16/our-initial-2024-senate-ratings/?amp=1

Safe R: WV
Likely R: FL, TX
Lean R: OH
Tossup: AZ, MT
Lean D: MI, NV, WI
Likely D: PA

Everything else is safe for the incumbent party.

FL should be Safe R, OH should be tossup, TX should be Lean R, MI and PA should be Safe D, and NV should tentatively be Likely D (obviously subject to change if Republicans unexpectedly manage to find something better than the C-listers they currently seem to be stuck with).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1670878202225389574?cxt=HHwWjMCzqem3k7AuAAA...

Gross

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1670878202225389574?cxt=HHwWjMCzqem3k7AuAAA...

Gross

What’s wrong with him? It’s not like he stands a chance against Menendez with NJ’s corrupt machine line politics.

Isn’t Roselle’s city government filled with DINOs or am I thinking of somewhere else?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1676619448810086402?s=20

I feel like we can do better here

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/29/steve-womack-arkansas-considers-retirement/

Rep. Steve Womack (AR-03) considering retirement. This district is Safe R in 2024, but is potentially worth watching as a sleeper further down the road.

Too bad   Womack always seemed like one of the saner folks in the Caucus and at least someone whose natural instincts were more inclined towards actually governing.  I mean, he’s still a House Republican, but you can work with folks like that.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Republicans got some good news in OH-13 where they have unexpectedly struggled a bit with recruitment thus far.  State Senator Kristina Roegner, who almost certainly would’ve cleared the field, she is an extremely right-wing under-performer who made her name by being aggressively anti-union and closely tying herself to Kasich’s failed effort to ban collective bargaining.  She’s likely gonna cost Republicans her State Senate seat one of these days as it is and would’ve been a terrible fit despite being nearly unstoppable in a primary. 

Given her popularity with the base, Republicans may have an easier time recruiting a solid candidate now that she’s made her decision.  OTOH, some folks like former State Senator Kevin Coughlin are already grumbling that they thought the legislature was gonna draw out Sykes and aren’t so keen on running now that it isn’t looking like a slam dunk win. 

I said it when Ryan Costello didn’t run as part of a temper tantrum over getting a non-gerrymandered district a few cycles back and I’ll say it now: folks who won’t run in a competitive race just b/c they’re salty about having to actually work for the win probably would’ve run lazy or weak campaigns anyway.  That said, Republicans may end up getting stuck with a passible, but decidedly non-A list candidate like Jane Timkin. 

If I were the NRCC, I’d go all out trying to recruit former State Rep. Anthony DeVitis (a consistent over-performer in a competitive district who scored impressive wins against a number of A-list opponents and just retired).  Yes, he was pretty vocally pro-life, but at least he has a strong track record in tough races until Democrats basically gave up b/c he beat one of our strongest State House recruits of 2014 with almost 60%.  Then again, he may not want to Re-enter politics idk. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

That’s probably a good thing.  Idk how serious Tran is, but Nguyen has been running a much weaker than expected campaign.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I notice J. R. Majewski is attacking the likely OH-09 nominee Craig Riedel for being anti-UAW, maybe Majewski will get back in the race.


I would definitely support him, especially as those "stolen valor" claims were debunked after the midterms by records being released (of course it only is released now). Kaptur and the DCCC should be ashamed of themselves for spreading fake news, and the NRCC should be ashamed for buying into it and cutting funding.

They were not debunked

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/pocryphal/status/1708519454357754078
That honestly seems like a fairly underwhelming number. Kean will probably raise at least twice as much.

Especially after IIRC she had such a strong start initially.  I wonder if support is consolidating around one of her primary opponents.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1713931952594764238

He’s unlikely to win, but if he runs a strong campaign he could come closer than O’Halleran did. Also Crane is the type of candidate I can potentially see a Boebert-style collapse for. That being said he’s fairly uncontroversial for a hardcore Trumper, and I have a feeling he’ll run against Mark Kelly in 2028.

Crane could definitely go down if he’s asleep at the wheel and it isn’t too Republican a year, but this is definitely Lean R and closer to Likely R than Tilt R.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Just saying that Crane’s seat is quite demographically similar to Boebert’s seat, and we all know how that ended up.

Nez is an infinitely stronger candidate than Frisch

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Just saying that Crane’s seat is quite demographically similar to Boebert’s seat, and we all know how that ended up.

Nez is an infinitely stronger candidate than Frisch

Nez lost his reelection race as Navajo president. Hardly the hallmark of a strong challenger.

Frisch is an exceptionally weak candidate coasting on #AnybodyButBoebert.  In hindsight, a C-lister would have beaten Boebert by about 5-6% in 2022.  I’m not saying Nez is a rock star A-lister, but he’s a pretty solid B-list recruit for a tough district.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Don’t see Bell doing much better than Steve Roberts. I don’t know anyone who’d vote for Cori Bush in 2022 but not 2024.

Steve Roberts has faced credible allegations of rape (made by a then-fellow member of the legislature) and sexual assault (one of which led to his arrest).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Latimer officially filed for NY-16: https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1731720963728024055

He is the guy that compared Cuomo being ousted to the lynching of Emmenet Till.

Please cite

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I don't know if there's a better thread to post this in (mods please move if so) but the latest rumblings are that Dems think an all-Democrat general election between Salas and Hurtado is possible in CA-22 based on polling showing Valadao extremely vulnerable to his Trum-aligned Republican challenger.

Since I posted this, this has transformed into panic about getting locked out as Mathys has proven resilient and Valadao is not hitting him (he doesn't need to, Valadao has enough name ID as the incumbent and appeal to independents/non-ideologues to take one of the top two spots, so this dynamic benefits him).

There is intense desire within the party to not have Hurtado as the nominee - I don't know why - but there is going to be a big push to get Salas through (if there isn't one already, I've been offline for some time dealing with stuff and am just getting reoriented now).

From the looks of it, Hurtado can’t fundraise to save her life.

I wonder if she has some skeletons in her closet tbh

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/jamesd0wns/status/1758927878492721429
FWIW, the primary between Min and Weiss has become extremely nasty.

Press X to doubt re: Min advancing

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1766557337504903429

I don’t know how much that helps in a district he lost to Nikki Haley

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1766557337504903429

I don’t know how much that helps in a district he lost to Nikki Haley

A good deal. Mace's 2022 primary challenger was Trumpy; I think she was even Trumpy enough, although I don't recall if she won the endorsement.

Mace won her 2022 primary…

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1766557337504903429

I don’t know how much that helps in a district he lost to Nikki Haley

A good deal. Mace's 2022 primary challenger was Trumpy; I think she was even Trumpy enough, although I don't recall if she won the endorsement.

Mace won her 2022 primary…

Well she was the incumbent and she’ll be the incumbent here as well.

She’s a much weaker and much Trumpier incumbent than she was then.  I think the question is less if she wins or loses, it’s which of her challengers wins the race to beat her in the runoff.