Special Election megathread (6/25: CO-4) (user search)
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Author Topic: Special Election megathread (6/25: CO-4)  (Read 154653 times)
Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« on: June 16, 2022, 02:44:52 PM »
Quote from: bunkerposter on June 16, 2022, 11:01:34 AM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on June 15, 2022, 02:17:02 PM
In case anyone thought Democratic politicians are interested in learning any lessons from this. We’re losing 80% Hispanic districts and they’re blaming white supremacy… Roll Eyes
[-tweet-]

I mean, we all know the endgame here is for the Democratic Party to start obsessing about racial differences within the broader "Hispanic" identity. White Hispanics are destined for the same relative treatment as Italians or Poles, which will be worse in absolute terms given how the hatred of whites has risen generally.

Worst 3,348th post ever.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #1 on: August 09, 2022, 09:16:13 PM »
BASED DARK BRANDON!!!!!!1
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #2 on: August 09, 2022, 09:18:06 PM »
The Rice county portion was a 23 point Trump win.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #3 on: August 09, 2022, 09:23:20 PM »
It looks like around a 7% overperformance in Rice vs 4% in Rock.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #4 on: August 09, 2022, 09:29:41 PM »
Rochester numbers will be important
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #5 on: August 09, 2022, 09:47:10 PM »
Quote from: GALeftist on August 09, 2022, 09:45:13 PM
So it is looking increasingly likely that Ettinger outperforms Biden, right? Pretty unambiguously bullish for Democrats if he does imo. Even if you completely throw the presidential topline out the window anything less than Finstad+10 suggests a roof of R+3 for the HPV in November.

The Rs are already preparing the copium (probably that Dan Feehan almost won in 2020, but that was as a more well-known candidate against a worse R).
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #6 on: August 09, 2022, 09:49:52 PM »
FINSTAD, BRAD (R)- 6,605 (58.5%)
ETTINGER, JEFF (D)- 4,367 (38.7%)
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #7 on: August 09, 2022, 09:54:13 PM »
FINSTAD, BRAD (R)- 7,151 (59.2%)
ETTINGER, JEFF (D)- 4,595 (38.0%)
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2022, 09:59:34 PM »
FINSTAD, BRAD (R)- 8,052 (58.8%)
ETTINGER, JEFF (D)- 5,236 (38.3%)
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2022, 10:18:29 PM »
FINSTAD, BRAD (R)- 12,594 (56.1%)
ETTINGER, JEFF (D)- 9,269 (41.3%)
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2022, 10:25:40 PM »

Yep.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2022, 10:30:41 PM »
FINSTAD, BRAD (R)- 13,722 (56.4%)
ETTINGER, JEFF (D)- 9,960 (41.0%)
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #12 on: August 09, 2022, 10:37:39 PM »
How could outperforming Biden by ~4% mean a 10% GOP Shift?
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #13 on: August 09, 2022, 10:38:17 PM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on August 09, 2022, 10:37:29 PM
Also a bit of a weird question but why are results trickling in so slow for this district when MN-05 counted extremely fast?

The primaries and the special election have different borders.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2022, 10:44:24 PM »
FINSTAD, BRAD (R)- 15,575 (56.3%)
ETTINGER, JEFF (D)- 11,423 (41.3%)
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #15 on: August 09, 2022, 10:45:38 PM »
Quote from: GALeftist on August 09, 2022, 10:41:56 PM
Quote from: AncestralDemocrat. on August 09, 2022, 10:29:14 PM
I'm comparing it to literally every statewide democrat apart from one (Keith Ellison) who has outperformed Biden/Clinton in the district, in recent years.

I won't remain silent any longer, this analysis is just straight up trash. If you're arguing that this district is just permanently blue downballot you need to explain why it is that this long history of Democratic sympathies is only observable between 2006 and now. Yes Ettinger is probably benefitting somewhat from downballot strength but unless that downballot strength has increased between 2020 and now it doesn't even explain the differential between this and the 2020 congressional race if we're assuming an R leaning national environment, let alone the presidential one. Winning this district by single digits this cycle is bad for Republicans, point blank, period.

Because, umm... WHITE PEOPLE VOTE LATE!
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #16 on: August 09, 2022, 10:57:11 PM »
FINSTAD, BRAD (R)- 17,512 (57.1%)
ETTINGER, JEFF (D)- 12,456 (40.6%)
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #17 on: August 09, 2022, 11:05:25 PM »
FINSTAD, BRAD (R)- 23,163 (57.8%)
ETTINGER, JEFF (D)- 15,983 (39.9%)
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #18 on: August 09, 2022, 11:06:47 PM »
FINSTAD, BRAD (R)- 24,540 (58.3%)
ETTINGER, JEFF (D)- 16,530 (39.3%)
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #19 on: August 09, 2022, 11:27:35 PM »
Quote from: Josh Shapiro for Governor on August 09, 2022, 11:24:34 PM
I'm very eager to see the Olmstead numbers. Hopefully they quit dragging feet over there.

Yeah. Rochester turnout could determine a lot.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #20 on: August 09, 2022, 11:55:59 PM »
FINSTAD, BRAD (R)- 31,802 (53.8%)
ETTINGER, JEFF (D)- 26,026 (44.0%)

Olmsted hasn't even started yet.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #21 on: August 09, 2022, 11:58:41 PM »
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #22 on: August 10, 2022, 12:00:24 AM »
Quote from: Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon on August 09, 2022, 11:59:18 PM
The Jackson result looks weird. A 61% Hagedorn County going 61% Ettinger?!?

Is it fully reported? Ettinger was leading in one of the 60-40 counties earlier.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #23 on: August 10, 2022, 12:07:25 AM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on August 10, 2022, 12:06:33 AM
Quote from: Minnesota Mike on August 10, 2022, 12:05:41 AM
All but 2 precincts of the Olmsted County primary vote is in and Dems lead 58-42, a little over 5,000 votes.

I was thinking it could be close to 60% with how the rest of the district was swinging. Wow!

5,000 is the current lead difference.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,389
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #24 on: August 16, 2022, 11:30:44 PM »
T- 30 minutes
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