United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[MABA 2020]

Would love the election to be May, but there isn't really any reason for Sunak to go earlier than he really needs to. It'll be October/November, right on top of the US election.

[MABA 2020]

New MRP poll (sample size: 14,000) published by YouGov, with the following seat projections:

• Labour: 385
• Conservative: 169
• Lib Dem: 48
• SNP: 25
• Plaid Cymru: 3
• Green: 1

_{Via the Telegraph (Note: both 2024 and 2019 maps use the new boundaries).}

This could be a lot worst for the Tories

[MABA 2020]

These are the kinds of poll numbers which led to Truss's removal. If this is indeed the direction the polls are headed towards, would MPs revolt against Rishi that close before the election? Is there even a plan B C D?

Pretty funny that Rishi was the break glass in case of emergency candidate, there is no one else, they're stuck

[MABA 2020]

After two and a half years of nothing but bad news for Tories you gotta do what you can to create some competition

[MABA 2020]

Okay this surprised me, I haven't been paying the closet attention recently and I assumed we were still looking at the end of the year?

[MABA 2020]

Okay this surprised me, I haven't been paying the closet attention recently and I assumed we were still looking at the end of the year?

Don’t beat yourself up about it, from the reactions in SW1 today, basically everyone else did too…

Yeah I now see from the reactions that this was another puzzling out of left field decision from Sunak.

Though hey I'm pretty happy about it, summer election lets go!

[MABA 2020]

What made Sunak decide to have a July election?

He's bad at politics and incredibly arrogant

[MABA 2020]

Only 4 times??

They're thinking Attlee, Wilson and Blair but they're not taking into account Wilsons second term or MacDonald so it would be technically more like the seventh time for Starmer

[MABA 2020]

https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1793628105250402676?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

This is Sunak heritage.

Sunak determined to make Theresa May look good in retrospect

[MABA 2020]

Shocked at Gove leaving, they'll miss him

[MABA 2020]

So apparently Sunak is taking a “day off” from the campaign trail tomorrow.

The first smart decision he's made this campaign

[MABA 2020]

The canada election comparison comes to my mind is the Liberal one where they accidentally assaulted a teenager, the PM lost his cool with literal preteens and a cabinet minister poked a farmer calling him fat.

Gosh which election was that?

[MABA 2020]

National Service? It's like parody of a terrible Tory campaign

[MABA 2020]

https://twitter.com/JAHeale/status/1795455911139430537

Excellent news

[MABA 2020]

Can't wait to see all the crazies they end up grabbing at the last second to fill all those vacancies

[MABA 2020]

Can't wait to see all the crazies they end up grabbing at the last second to fill all those vacancies

Well, you’ll never guess who’s on the shortlist for Wokingham…

lol I did not guess that

[MABA 2020]

I saw a conversation elsewhere in which a Labour majority of 73 was predicted and one of the participants (who seemed to be pro-Labour or at least anti-Tory) was dismissive that it could be that high. I don't think most people and certainly not most of the media have clocked onto what a bloodbath this might be.

Everyone I've talked to about the election has basically been like "I think Labour might win" and when I say it's going to be another 97/over 400 seats it's met with scepticism, so no I don't think people are prepared for how bad it might be for the Tories.

[MABA 2020]

On the one hand, Clegg is a reminder of how things can change during the course of a general election campaign. On the other hand, he is a reminder that major parties can be almost entirely wiped out.  

Although, on the former point, 'Cleggmania' came to virtually nothing in the actual election. 

It did actually result in a much better Lib Dem performance than they were heading for, it’s just that this bump only got them back to their 2005 result (and polling suggested more than this).

A disappointment when your hoping to become LOTO

[MABA 2020]

Have a feeling Farage will get in this time

[MABA 2020]

Have a feeling Farage will get in this time

why?

Farage got pretty close in 2015 and the Tory vote is obviously much weaker this election. If his main competition is a Tory, then it'll be easier for him to beat them. Clacton is also one of the most Brexity and right-wing constituencies in the UK and the only one to have already elected a UKIP MP.

Yeah pretty much this

[MABA 2020]

Sunak cut short his appearance at the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of D-Day to campaign??!?!?

It was announced in the morning that he would skip.

Not going to do him any favours, as Farage and Starmer where both there and he wasn't.

Starmer again looking more prime ministerial

[MABA 2020]

This is all too funny, and if Sunak did resign (I know, not likely), for Cameron to open and close this particular period of Conservative government? Perfection

[MABA 2020]

I'm curious what a "presidential" campaign means in a UK context. How exactly would the Tory campaign look any different than it is now if they weren't running one? Obviously you need to promote your leader, but would it be more policy-based rather than focusing on Rishi doing lots of appearances and meeting with voters in different constituencies?

Other senior party figures would be more prominent in the campaign, as is the case with e.g. the Labour campaign presently.

They might have a hard time finding others who want to join this campaign

[MABA 2020]

https://twitter.com/scottygb/status/1800231637265068343

Respect.

We should all aspire to live life like a Lib Dem leader during an election campaign

[MABA 2020]

Any sense on what is the bare minimum of total national vote support that would likely yield a Labour majority? With the emergence of Reform adding a bunch of wasted votes, perhaps the low 30s?

Without the collapse of one of the two governing parties, recent history suggests 36 to 37%. In both cases the opposition was between 3 and 7 points behind.

If the Tories, Lib Dems and Reform got 20% each, that would put Labour on about 30-32% and they would still get a majority.

If Labour get a big majority from such a low percentage, it would only highlight the absurdity of FPTP