United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[YL]

It’s nice to have some more MRP polling. That being said, the YouGov MRP in Scotland is a little baffling.  



Headline examples:

• Lib Dems on the precipice of losing their best seats (Edinburgh West and Orkney&Shetland) to the SNP.
• The SNP poised to lose safe seats like Stirling and Alloa&Grangemouth to Labour, while holding seats in Glasgow to “toss up” status.

The seat totals look fairly plausible for current polling, but the seat-by-seat modelling feels off. The error bars are their own story…

I think UK-wide MRPs can struggle in Scotland because it has very different poltical dynamics and they don't have enough data to handle it separately.

[YL]

There are plenty of 60%+ muslim seats, so he knows which seat he should run in.

There are not; there is precisely one such seat (Birmingham Hodge Hill), and only three majority Muslim seats in total.

Hodge Hill is being abolished anyway: the bulk of it is to go to the absurdly named Birmingham Hodge Hill & Solihull North (which, as the name suggests though for the wrong reasons, is substantially whiter and less Muslim), with Alum Rock and Saltley going to yet another version of Ladywood and most of Small Heath, somewhat absurdly, going to Yardley.

Under the new boundaries, the most Muslim seat is Bradford West (59%) and the only other majority Muslim seat is Brum Hall Green & Moseley, though Ladywood is close and I suppose might have crossed the line since the census.

[afleitch]

It’s nice to have some more MRP polling. That being said, the YouGov MRP in Scotland is a little baffling.  



Headline examples:

• Lib Dems on the precipice of losing their best seats (Edinburgh West and Orkney&Shetland) to the SNP.
• The SNP poised to lose safe seats like Stirling and Alloa&Grangemouth to Labour, while holding seats in Glasgow to “toss up” status.

The seat totals look fairly plausible for current polling, but the seat-by-seat modelling feels off. The error bars are their own story…

MRP in Scotland might be guff generally.

While YouGov have made some use of recently released census data, other models may not, or bring with it partial errors by relying on how things were in 2011. It's not clear on what variables analysis is undertaken. Age is probably the strongest single indicator GB wide, but the pattern is somewhat different in Scotland (with Labour having an older profile in 2019 than in England and Wales) and of course national identity which has been the strongest predictor for SNP voting since it was first really looked at in the 1992 Scottish Election Study.

If we look at YouGov, the crosstabs suggest Lab 34, SNP 33, Con 11 and LD 5.

First off that's, given recent polling, that's not bad for the SNP More in Common have an SNP lead of around 4 points and ElectoralCalculus, around 2.

The end result is that while there is massive variation on voting for other parties, from obsolescence to winning heights, the SNP vote is flat and uniform. Even where it currently isn't.

What the MRP's (and in out of the three, this is slightly more true of YouGov's than the others) are saying is that.

1. The Scotland only polls are wrong.
2. Or they are right but tactical voting/regional variation might be reducing the gap.
3. But tactical voting for the SNP (and clearly against the Tories compared to polling) in reducing the gap actually...doesn't. And gives them a worse seat outcome than UNS. And tactical voting against the Tories boosts their seat outcome.

I don't buy that 2 leads to 3 or three leads to 2.
 

[CumbrianLefty]

More In Common actually did much of their MRP poll in April??

If so, that at least surely means that their frankly implausible Scottish figures can be disregarded.

[beesley]

I think UK-wide MRPs can struggle in Scotland because it has very different poltical dynamics and they don't have enough data to handle it separately.

This was also true in exit polls. Purely to illustrate, the 2017 BBC/ITN/Sky exit poll which projected seat by seat had Gordon returning to the Lib Dems and Labour's forecasted gains were on uniform swing - and overall it was very accurate, including with the SNP topline figure. But a polling scientist may think bringing the two into dialogue is misguided.

[Torrain]

Nice to get some context guys, genuinely appreciate it.

Appreciate that modelling Scotland is such a pain, because you have seats where party prospects have just *completely died* in a couple of cycles. Including data from even 4-5 cycles yields really odd results like red Dumfriesshire, and Lib Dem Gordon, which are pretty much ruled out under the current alignment.

I've been having a look at the modelling for the past few cycles, and even the most lauded examples (2017 YouGov MRP, 2019 broadcasters exit poll etc) seem to get the headline numbers 6-12 seats out, and have little success predicting the final map. Although given the sheer turbulence we've seen in seat control (and party majority) these past three Westminster cycles, it's hard to blame them.

Afleitch's point on tactical vote feels particularly salient - we're just not sure how strong the anti-SNP vs anti-Tory tactical vote blocs will be at this stage (or how efficient), and MRP that doesn't account for tactical voting (like YouGov) is going to be messy...

[Dan the Roman]

I feel that turnout is potentially going to be wonky here. The Tories of course are going to suffer, but the SNP too has failed to outline any sort of clear purpose for its MPs, and as a result, is not really running what can be termed a campaign above the constituency level.

It is possible they could have a really rough time if their electorate just doesn't bother to vote.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/JLPartnersPolls/status/1797697544015003650

[icc]

It’s nice to have some more MRP polling. That being said, the YouGov MRP in Scotland is a little baffling.  



Headline examples:

• Lib Dems on the precipice of losing their best seats (Edinburgh West and Orkney&Shetland) to the SNP.
• The SNP poised to lose safe seats like Stirling and Alloa&Grangemouth to Labour, while holding seats in Glasgow to “toss up” status.

The seat totals look fairly plausible for current polling, but the seat-by-seat modelling feels off. The error bars are their own story…

I think UK-wide MRPs can struggle in Scotland because it has very different poltical dynamics and they don't have enough data to handle it separately.

And it is always going to have particularly large margins of error in Lib Dem v SNP seats, for the simple reason that there are barely any of them. Similarly, looking at the Plaid Cymru seats, or the Labour v Green battleground is unlikely to be too illuminating. There simply isn't enough of a sample.

[MillennialModerate]

So does Farage win a seat? My gut says No

Does it give Reform a chance to win seats? Also No

I do agree with him that they just need 5-6 points more to start winning a handful of seats.

[Germany1994]

Ok, when even the more "Tory friendly" pollsters give you declining numbers you´re in ****ing big trouble. 

[JimJamUK]

https://twitter.com/pippacrerar/status/1797711070863466889?s=61&t=I1DE8_cg7g...

[Coldstream]

If the greens win Bristol Centre is it because of A.) Labour's dislike among left-liberals B.) Boundary changes C.) The Greens success locally in Bristol D.) Gaza or E.) increased awareness about climate change or F.) a combination of all of them.

C most significantly, it’s the best Green operation in the country, and people believe they can win (which is always the Greens challenge).

B next, it becomes a very white seat post boundary review. Even without Gaza the Greens would have had a shot.

[Torrain]

Scottish leaders debate has just started. Going to try and keep thoughts in this comment, if anything notable happens. Expecting this to basically be a slightly higher budget FMQs though.

Spoiler alert: far too much commentary

Show

Opening statements

• Ross: boilerplate fixing education, roads, NHS etc. Emphasis on SNP-Tory division.
• Sarwar: very generic NHS good, Tories bad.
• Swinney: probably the clearest, lists off all the SNP's usual achievements.
• Cole-Hamilton: trying to sound a little less English than usual.
• Everyone is stiff and a bit nervy.

Sarwar downplaying polling - most attacks targeted against Tories. Line against the SNP is a bit softer than in Holyrood, definitely a "wooing swing voters" mood.

Swinney definitely positioning himself as underdog in the race, has this slightly odd line about not expecting an election this quickly into his tenure. Meant to evoke sympathy I think, but does seem a bit self-pitying.

Ross always pivots back to making this a referendum (heh) on the SNP's tenure.

Oil and gas

• Swinney and Sarwar trying to out-rhetoric each other on windfall taxes. Swinney positioning Labour as *Thatcherite* for taxing oil profits was an odd moment. Both get way too granular into the detail.
• Moderator tries to get Swinney to say whether he would authorise more oil licences - man looks genuinely nervous for the first time, and gets into a real stutter as he tries to decide between Greens and North East voters. Waffled for an uncomfortably long time.
• Ross happy to jump in and endorse oil and gas exploration.

Cross-examination
Sarwar

• Swinney asks about where cash will come from if Labour sign up to Tory spending plans. Sarwar has a fairly well prepared answer, stays calm, refers to Swinney as the "architect of Scottish austerity", which feels like a line Labour will come back to. Swinney looks a bit rattled for the first time.
• Ross asks why Sarwar won't support new oil and gas licences. Sarwar swings into Labour renewables policy, and Ross basically lets him talk. Both are a lot more civil - which may not be ideal for Labour. Swinney's tetchiness has had the impact of making Labour and Tories look a little closer
• Cole-Hamilton throws a very gentle curveball at Sarwar, including complimenting him. I've never seen a Scottish politician audition to be Deputy First Minister onstage before.

Cole-Hamilton

• Softball from Sarwar, nothing to report
• Swinney accuses him of being insufficiently supportive of the EU - Cole-Hamilton pushes back and asks why Scotland isn't back in the Erasmus scheme like Wales. They go back and forth - Swinney asking the Lib Dems to campaign in favour of rejoining EU, Cole-Hamilton survives, albeit through deflection
• Ross attacks Lib Dems over marine protected areas and fishing - another "Ross wants to win Banff and Buchan" question

Douglas Ross

• Cole-Hamilton goes after Ross' flip-flopping in confidence in Johnson. Ross scrapes through, by highlighting his resignation, and the impact of the Ukraine war on his decision.
• Sarwar tells Ross should beg for forgiveness, not votes, for the Tory role in the cost of living crisis. It's very old Labour. Second question on PPE contracts, which lets Sarwar steamroll Ross
• Swinney gets an easy jab in about Ross supporting Truss' budget. Swinney doesn't chase him -lets him talk for a while. Oddly low-energy follow-up. He was angry earlier, now he's almost bored?

John Swinney

• Ross - boilerplate about why cost of living is less important than independence. Bit of a rammy about ferries and education (Swinney says people should be generous with the government, as ferries will arrive - bit late for that). Swinney defends Matheson, and fully backs him. Weaker from Ross
• Cole-Hamilton asks about COVID patients being moved into hospitals, and deletion of COVID-era whatsapps. Swinney waffles, gives a slightly Johnson
• Sarwar does a monologue about sleaze in SNP, cuts to services and falling education standards, but then pivots to ask them why the SNP should be supported over Labour when trying to beat Tories. Oddly well-tempered exchange, both suddenly seem a little wary of pissing off each other's voters

[YL]

Chris Clarkson, outgoing MP for Heywood & Middleton, selected as Tory candidate for Stratford upon Avon

Neil Hudson, outgoing MP for Penrith & the Border, selected as Tory candidate for Epping Forest

The chickens are running tonight.

[JimJamUK]

Chris Clarkson, outgoing MP for Heywood & Middleton, selected as Tory candidate for Stratford upon Avon

Announced he was standing down a year ago due to minor unfavourable boundary changes. Can’t imagine a chicken running Tory candidate does the Lib Dems any harm in what is an ambitious but apparently strong target seat.

[beesley]

Chris Clarkson, outgoing MP for Heywood & Middleton, selected as Tory candidate for Stratford upon Avon

Neil Hudson, outgoing MP for Penrith & the Border, selected as Tory candidate for Epping Forest

The chickens are running tonight.

Hudson a beneficiary of having been defeated by his (altogether very different) colleague Mark Jenkinson in the original selection for Penrith and Solway, as his new seat is far more likely to be held, you would think.

As one commenter mentioned on VoteUK, there are going to be a decent number of seats with the combination of generic SpAd/financial services/former MP Tory candidate against an entrenched Lib Dem councillor who might have more name recognition, at least in parts of the seat. It might not make much of a difference but the leaflets write themselves...

[MABA 2020]

Have a feeling Farage will get in this time

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Have a feeling Farage will get in this time

Certainly he has likely better odds than in 2015.

[Torrain]

This verbatim exchange might be the best clip of the night:

Douglas Ross: Are you any different to your predecessors?
John Swinney: I'm John Swinney!

[TheTide]

There's been quite a few examples of third parties being led into a general election by an uncharismatic figure whilst there is a more charismatic and obvious alternative lurking in the wings. Some of these would include Lord Pearson instead of Nigel Farage leading UKIP in 2010, Natalie Bennett instead of Caroline Lucas leading the Greens in 2015, John Swinney instead of Alex Salmond (although he perhaps was having a needed break) leading the SNP in 2001, Roy Jenkins instead of Shirley Williams leading the SDP in 1983. Of course charisma generally matters more when it comes to these kinds of parties. If Richard Tice had remained leader of the Reform Party then it would have fallen into this category.

[Cassius]

This verbatim exchange might be the best clip of the night:

Douglas Ross: Are you any different to your predecessors?
John Swinney: I'm John Swinney!

John Swinney comes across as a man who really does not want to be doing this at his time of life in every public engagement.

[RBH]

I think he admits it in a sense but reading some of the TomorrowsMPs tweets is like reading about 19th round draft picks in baseball where it's like, sure, this person could be in the majors one day, but now they're in the 207th targeted seat and they won't win this time

[IceAgeComing]

There's been quite a few examples of third parties being led into a general election by an uncharismatic figure whilst there is a more charismatic and obvious alternative lurking in the wings. Some of these would include Lord Pearson instead of Nigel Farage leading UKIP in 2010, Natalie Bennett instead of Caroline Lucas leading the Greens in 2015, John Swinney instead of Alex Salmond (although he perhaps was having a needed break) leading the SNP in 2001, Roy Jenkins instead of Shirley Williams leading the SDP in 1983. Of course charisma generally matters more when it comes to these kinds of parties. If Richard Tice had remained leader of the Reform Party then it would have fallen into this category.

Salmond fell out with a bunch of SNP people in 2000; resigned from the leadership and backed Swinney (bit a gradualist/fundamentalist election; Alex Neill was from the side of the SNP that was sceptical of devolution and backed a more assertive position on independence while Swinney backed it being a lower priority and requiring a referendum); then after a trio of dissapointing elections (losing Galloway to the Tories in 2001 and not making ground on Labour; losing more seats than Labour in a 2003 Scottish Parliament election less than two months into the Iraq war when the Greens and SSP made clear strides; and then in the 2004 European elections the SNP again fell more than Labour and almost finished in third behind the Tories) clearly the people that didn't like Salmond were willing to give him a go again if it got them back into government.

[GM Team Member and Acting PPT WB]

This verbatim exchange might be the best clip of the night:

Douglas Ross: Are you any different to your predecessors?
John Swinney: I'm John Swinney!

John Swinney comes across as a man who really does not want to be doing this at his time of life in every public engagement.

John Swinney comes across as John Swinney to me in that statement