🇨🇦 2024 Canadian by-elections

[Oryxslayer]

'Supermajority' doesn't actually mean anything in Canada either, right?

Unless you are talking constitutional changes, in which case it's a supermajority of the provincial governments.

[Sestak]

Justin is so cooked lmao

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

'Supermajority' doesn't actually mean anything in Canada either, right?

No, and it's worth noting that Canada has a fairly powerful Prime Minister's office.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

'Supermajority' doesn't actually mean anything in Canada either, right?

No, and it's worth noting that Canada has a fairly powerful Prime Minister's office.

The Friendly Dictatorship by Jeffrey Simpson
https://www.amazon.ca/Friendly-Dictatorship-Jeffrey-Simpson/dp/0771080786

Jean Chrétien’s longevity and reluctance to step down has highlighted the most alarming part of Canada’s de facto one-party government: Canadian parliamentary democracy now places more power in the hands of the prime minister than does any other democracy.

The Friendly Dictatorship demonstrates what has been happening in three areas that are vital to Canadian democracy: the parliamentary system, the political parties, and the electorate. What has occurred within each of these spheres has directly influenced developments in the others, and the combined effect has been to leave Canadian democracy in a worrying state.

There's even a review of the book from fascist J.J McCullough there.

[Pericles]

'Supermajority' doesn't actually mean anything in Canada either, right?

No, and it's worth noting that Canada has a fairly powerful Prime Minister's office.

Exactly, it's an Americanism and it's dumb to see it being used in parliamentary democracies now. 'Landslide' actually makes sense because nobody thinks that it actually means a more powerful type of majority, just a bigger one.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

'Supermajority' doesn't actually mean anything in Canada either, right?

No, and it's worth noting that Canada has a fairly powerful Prime Minister's office.

The Friendly Dictatorship by Jeffrey Simpson
https://www.amazon.ca/Friendly-Dictatorship-Jeffrey-Simpson/dp/0771080786

Jean Chrétien’s longevity and reluctance to step down has highlighted the most alarming part of Canada’s de facto one-party government: Canadian parliamentary democracy now places more power in the hands of the prime minister than does any other democracy.

The Friendly Dictatorship demonstrates what has been happening in three areas that are vital to Canadian democracy: the parliamentary system, the political parties, and the electorate. What has occurred within each of these spheres has directly influenced developments in the others, and the combined effect has been to leave Canadian democracy in a worrying state.

There's even a review of the book from fascist J.J McCullough there.

To think there's a 22 year old review from JJ McCollugh on Amazon... reality is strange.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

'Supermajority' doesn't actually mean anything in Canada either, right?

No, and it's worth noting that Canada has a fairly powerful Prime Minister's office.

Exactly, it's an Americanism and it's dumb to see it being used in parliamentary democracies now. 'Landslide' actually makes sense because nobody thinks that it actually means a more powerful type of majority, just a bigger one.

There are serious people, like former Alberta Premier Peter Lougheed who think that use of the Notwithstanding Clause should be subject to a supermajority vote in the legislature.

[Hatman 🍁]

And two, that's what the polls are saying, byelections tell us quite a different story where the NDP is also losing support. They lost support in all kinds of ridings - urban, suburban, rural, Francophone, Anglophone, you name it. Sure the NDP has structural disadvantages in byelections. But at the end of the day, what matters more in politics, telephone surveys or actual elections? I'm inclined to think it's the latter.

None of the byelections that have taken place since the 2021 have been in seats where the NDP has ever been remotely competitive. It will be a better test to see what happens in Elmwood-Transcona, Halifax and Lasalle-Emard-Verdun. In byelections, people who typically vote for parties that are locally uncompetitive tend to stay home.

Ultimately, having any influence whatsoever on government policy is the name of the game. Sure the NDP could have been totally obstructionist during this minority, screamed and yelled a lot, played weekly games of Russian roulette with the fate of the government and accomplished nothing - and maybe that would have pleased Tory voters - but to what end. Its a bit like saying the Liberals would be better off if they lost the 2021 election since being in power means you are greater risk of becoming unpopular and losing the subsequent election! The best way for a party to always be popular is never to win an election.  

Fair enough, these byelections haven't really been NDP-favourable. Even LaSalle-Emard isn't that favourable, Halifax and Elmwood are the real tests. That said, I reject the idea that the C&S agreement gave the NDP all that much influence on Liberal policy, at least to the extent that would justify the political hit they took. But I say this with hindsight, and there's no way to test the counterfactual, so we can agree to disagree.

LaSalle-Emard might be an uphill battle, but the NDP is absolutely targeting it by running a popular city councillor.

[DL]

François Philippe Champagne would be a strong candidate. Years in global finance, represents the same seat as Chrétien, has a good track record in standing up against big corporations and attracting foreign investment. And not too associated with Trudeau's personality.

Have you ever heard him speak? He always sounds like he just inhaled helium!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

François Philippe Champagne would be a strong candidate. Years in global finance, represents the same seat as Chrétien, has a good track record in standing up against big corporations and attracting foreign investment. And not too associated with Trudeau's personality.

Have you ever heard him speak? He always sounds like he just inhaled helium!

And given Quebec is the only province where Liberal polling isn’t that disastrous, electing a French leader seems pretty pointless. Surely they need somebody with appeal in the GTA.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

François Philippe Champagne would be a strong candidate. Years in global finance, represents the same seat as Chrétien, has a good track record in standing up against big corporations and attracting foreign investment. And not too associated with Trudeau's personality.

Have you ever heard him speak? He always sounds like he just inhaled helium!

And given Quebec is the only province where Liberal polling isn’t that disastrous, electing a French leader seems pretty pointless. Surely they need somebody with appeal in the GTA.

The thing with Quebec though is it's a very volatile electorate, easily the most swingy in Canada. But being led by a Quebecer is almost a prerequisite to winning the Quebec vote. The last time a leader without a personal connection to Quebec led his party to win the popular vote in Quebec was Pearson in 1965. The Leafs have won the Stanley Cup more recently than a non-Quebecer has won Quebec!

Of course, this might not even matter with Trudeau in charge. Yes he's a Quebecer, but with current numbers they're all but shut out in Francophone Quebec where the favourite son effect is strongest.

Dominic LeBlanc might therefore be their best option. He's from Atlantic Canada and is Francophone, so that checks two boxes. And despite being a senior cabinet minister, he's pre-Trudeau and not considered a Trudeau groupie the way a lot of cabinet ministers are, and he's bland enough that Conservative attacks might not work as well on him.

[Hatman 🍁]

Aren't LeBlanc and JT best friends or something?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Aren't LeBlanc and JT best friends or something?

Not really sure, but maybe that's the point. If political addicts like you and I can't immediately point out a Trudeau-LeBlanc connection (apart from the obvious of him being a Liberal cabinet minister), the median voter is even less likely to do so.

[adma]

Aren't LeBlanc and JT best friends or something?

Not really sure, but maybe that's the point. If political addicts like you and I can't immediately point out a Trudeau-LeBlanc connection (apart from the obvious of him being a Liberal cabinet minister), the median voter is even less likely to do so.

Dom was Justin's babysitter, believe it or not.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Aren't LeBlanc and JT best friends or something?

Not really sure, but maybe that's the point. If political addicts like you and I can't immediately point out a Trudeau-LeBlanc connection (apart from the obvious of him being a Liberal cabinet minister), the median voter is even less likely to do so.

Dom was Justin's babysitter, believe it or not.

I stand corrected about the "not connected to Trudeau" thing then lol.

Come to think of it, despite Dom having a much more muted and low-key presentation, his profile is quite similar to Trudeau. Both are scions of high-profile Liberal politicians from the "natural governing party" era. Romeo LeBlanc isn't as well-remembered as PET of course, but not a nobody either. I mean he was literally a senior minister-turned-Governor General, not some random Acadian fisherman-turned-backbencher.

[adma]

Aren't LeBlanc and JT best friends or something?

Not really sure, but maybe that's the point. If political addicts like you and I can't immediately point out a Trudeau-LeBlanc connection (apart from the obvious of him being a Liberal cabinet minister), the median voter is even less likely to do so.

Dom was Justin's babysitter, believe it or not.

I stand corrected about the "not connected to Trudeau" thing then lol.

Come to think of it, despite Dom having a much more muted and low-key presentation, his profile is quite similar to Trudeau. Both are scions of high-profile Liberal politicians from the "natural governing party" era. Romeo LeBlanc isn't as well-remembered as PET of course, but not a nobody either. I mean he was literally a senior minister-turned-Governor General, not some random Acadian fisherman-turned-backbencher.

And Romeo & PET were themselves quite close--all the way to the end, in fact (that last trip to New Brunswick in 2000)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/romeo-leblanc-remembers-old-friend-trudeau-1.244583

[AustralianSwingVoter]

François Philippe Champagne would be a strong candidate. Years in global finance, represents the same seat as Chrétien, has a good track record in standing up against big corporations and attracting foreign investment. And not too associated with Trudeau's personality.

Have you ever heard him speak? He always sounds like he just inhaled helium!

And given Quebec is the only province where Liberal polling isn’t that disastrous, electing a French leader seems pretty pointless. Surely they need somebody with appeal in the GTA.

The thing with Quebec though is it's a very volatile electorate, easily the most swingy in Canada. But being led by a Quebecer is almost a prerequisite to winning the Quebec vote. The last time a leader without a personal connection to Quebec led his party to win the popular vote in Quebec was Pearson in 1965. The Leafs have won the Stanley Cup more recently than a non-Quebecer has won Quebec!

Sure, but at this point how many seats could the Liberals realistically lose in Quebec? 15, maybe 20 tops as Montreal Anglos abandoning the Grits looks very unlikely. Meanwhile on the uniform swing from the St Pauls by-election they lose 55 seats in Ontario!

[2952-0-0]

François Philippe Champagne would be a strong candidate. Years in global finance, represents the same seat as Chrétien, has a good track record in standing up against big corporations and attracting foreign investment. And not too associated with Trudeau's personality.

Have you ever heard him speak? He always sounds like he just inhaled helium!

Yes, and Chrétien is dyslexic and has a crooked mouth. The PCs even made an ad mocking him.

[adma]

Just FYI: this is a byelection thread, not a future-federal-Liberal-leadership speculation thread--even if the nature of the St Paul's byelection is of the sort that *would* tripwire such speculation...

[adma]

Oh, and BTW, one more bit of food for thought re the byelection: even in defeat, the Libs only got about a tenth of a percentage point less than they got in victory in '11--and they probably would have done worse in '11 were it not for Bennett's incumbency advantage (or the NDP having a poteau candidate).  So if you *really* want to milk the glass-half-full for all it's worth, there you go--heck, even I was speculating on a sub-40% victory going into the byelection, so one could say that the Libs actually *surpassed* some of my psephological expectations/allowances. 

It just happened to be that the Cons got *their* act together, and aggressively so.  (And of course, the unite-the-left advocates are acting as if that 40+ Con share is a permanent condition, and it's no use trying to budge or reduce it, just try to pile on it...)

Oh, and just to be cheeky, to further fuel the cant behind uniting partisan camps: the winning Con margin was greater than the PPC dropoff from '21.  "If *they* can unite, why can't *we*?!?"  Uh...

[Hatman 🍁]

There were clearly a lot of would-be NDP voters who went Liberal in this race to try and prevent the Cons from winning.

[DL]

There were clearly a lot of would-be NDP voters who went Liberal in this race to try and prevent the Cons from winning.

I don't think "strategic voting" is much of a thing in a byelection where the stakes or low to non-existent. I think its more that in a byelection that is clearly a Liberal-Tory contest and where the NDP is spending very little and has no visibility - a lot of "would be NDP voters" either stay home, vote Liberal as the lesser of two evils or some may even vote Tory to "send the Liberals a message". 

[King of Kensington]

In terms of raw vote, the CPC received 2,000 more votes than in 2021.  The Liberals received 57% of their 2021 vote tally, and the NDP 45%.  Altogether the number of votes cast was 68% of the 2021 election.

[toaster]

There were clearly a lot of would-be NDP voters who went Liberal in this race to try and prevent the Cons from winning.

I wouldn't say "clearly", I definitely don't subscribe to that.  People have associated the NDP with Trudeau, the results should be a big flashing warning sign to the NDP to choose a new leader. I predict 10 or fewer seats if they keep Singh - certainly all the of the 'labour left' will be gone.

[DL]

There were clearly a lot of would-be NDP voters who went Liberal in this race to try and prevent the Cons from winning.

I wouldn't say "clearly", I definitely don't subscribe to that.  People have associated the NDP with Trudeau, the results should be a big flashing warning sign to the NDP to choose a new leader. I predict 10 or fewer seats if they keep Singh - certainly all the of the 'labour left' will be gone.

There is ZERO chance that the NDP is switching leaders given that the next election is so imminent and in any case, its not clear who would be better than Singh who would be available on a moment's notice to jump into the fray. I think that among NDP MEMBERS (i.e. the only ones who matter here), the deal with the Liberals is quite popular and allows the NDP to point to accomplishments. Had Singh NOT made this deal with the Liberals - one of two things would have happened instead - there would have been a snap election in early 2022 the moment the Liberals proposed a budget that the NDP had no input into and the NDP would have been forced into an election less than a year after the last one with no money at all - and that would likely have been an extinction event OR the NDP would have been put in the position of the Liberals in 2008-2011 and voting in favour of the Liberals on every confidence bill in exchange for NOTHING - in which case they would get all the same flak for propping up with the Liberals in exchange for NOTHING.