🇨🇦 2024 Canadian by-elections

[Oryxslayer]

This Newfoundland result is surprising - is the incumbent provincial government really popular or something?

Apparently the Lib candidate is a local TV and Radio Newscaster...and well you don't need me to tell you how a familiar name and face from the TV can dramatically improve the fortunes of one party compared to the baseline in small constituencies.

[Oryxslayer]

This Newfoundland result is surprising - is the incumbent provincial government really popular or something?

I don't know if the Liberal government is especially popular but from what I've read and have been told by a person in Newfoundland, they've hit upon a success in economic development which should mean at the very least that the province won't have a decline in population as had been expected.

Essentially, the government has decided to focus on what business professor Michael Porter coined 'clustering' about 40 years ago (referred to as 'network effects' in economics) and focus on tourism and especially the arts for economic development. The people behind this say they want to turn Newfoundland and Labrador into the leading arts hub in North America.

As a person admittedly old economy I hear this as the economic plan for a province and just think "eff off, come back to me when you've grown up and become serious".

There's nothing wrong with being artsy, but when you're talking about the arts as we're going to drive economic development with that, the arts only work economically if they have patrons, and those patrons make their money from what? It's no different than a pro sports team. A pro sports team in an area can generate economic development to a point, but it only works if there's people and/or corporations buying the tickets, and if business sucks/there's no jobs, they're not going to. The sports team's financial health at the gate is dependent on the economy that surrounds them. Arts like the sports team or any entertainment enterprise are not primary economic generators, they are derivatives.

California:
Overall, the creative economy directly contributed 14.9 percent ($507.4 billion) of the state's $3.4 trillion economy, and 7.6 percent of its jobs.

Show business is big business.

I think the subtext here is that the expanding offshore oil industry, and other less prominent extraction industries, are what's really bringing in the money to this (comparativly) remote part of Canada - and that provides the capital for everything else.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, enough speculation,  there's a actual contest now happening! NDPs Daniel Blaikie to resign to work with the new Manitoba government. One has to imagine the Tories are going to make a play for it, even with the By-election environment likely to create anti-CPC consolidation among voters.

[Oryxslayer]

The NDP is winning the Manitoba provincial byelection in Tuxedo! That was considered the safest Tory seat in Winnipeg!

Western Canadian provincial political coalitions continue to look more and more like certain American states.

[Oryxslayer]

Guess it's up to me since the regulars are off watching hockey:

3/192 Polls

Don Stewart (Con) - 111, 45.1%
Leslie Church (Lib) - 106, 43.1%
Amrit Parhar (NDP) - 21, 8.5%
Christian Cullis (Green) - 5, 2%

Others - 1, 0.4%

Longest Ballot Indies - 2, 0.8%

[Oryxslayer]

6/192 Polls

Leslie Church (Lib) - 291, 46.9%
Don Stewart (Con) - 206, 33.2%
Amrit Parhar (NDP) - 90, 14.5%
Christian Cullis (Green) - 13, 2.1%

Others - 7, 1.1%

Longest Ballot Indies - 13, 2.1%

[Oryxslayer]

12/192 Polls

Leslie Church (Lib) - 643, 46.2%
Don Stewart (Con) - 522, 37.5%
Amrit Parhar (NDP) - 141, 10.5%
Christian Cullis (Green) - 47, 3.4%

Others - 12, 0.8%

Longest Ballot Indies - 28, 1.6%

[Oryxslayer]

20/192 Polls

Leslie Church (Lib) - 1159, 45.7%
Don Stewart (Con) - 904, 5.7%
Amrit Parhar (NDP) - 286, 11.3%
Christian Cullis (Green) - 96, 3.8%

Others - 26, 1%

Longest Ballot Indies - 64, 2.5%

Is there any way to see which polls have come in or is only the overall riding result possible?

The data is usually avaiable after all is done, but thats obviously not the answer you wanted.

[Oryxslayer]

45/192 Polls

Leslie Church (Lib) - 2497, 44.5%
Don Stewart (Con) - 2024, 36%
Amrit Parhar (NDP) - 734, 13.1%
Christian Cullis (Green) - 179, 3.2%

Others - 63, 1.2%

Longest Ballot Indies - 118, 2.1%

[Oryxslayer]

71/192 Polls

Leslie Church (Lib) - 3882, 43.1%
Don Stewart (Con) - 3335, 37%
Amrit Parhar (NDP) - 1143, 12.7%
Christian Cullis (Green) - 273, 3%

Others - 111, 1.2%

(Longest Ballot) Indies - 259, 2.9%

[Oryxslayer]

90/192 Polls

Leslie Church (Lib) - 5352, 42.9%
Don Stewart (Con) - 4613, 37%
Amrit Parhar (NDP) - 1615, 13%
Christian Cullis (Green) - 391, 3.1%

Others - 151, 1.2%

(Longest Ballot) Indies - 346, 2.8%


Tightened again

[Oryxslayer]

112/192 Polls

Leslie Church (Lib) - 6684, 42.6%
Don Stewart (Con) - 5925, 37.7%
Amrit Parhar (NDP) - 1975, 12.6%
Christian Cullis (Green) - 497, 3.2%

Others - 187, 1.2%

(Longest Ballot) Indies - 439, 2.8%

[Oryxslayer]

Well this is bad for the Liberals. no question. Thinking they had narrowly held it until almost the very end of the count probably increases the psychological trauma too.

Anybody know anything about the candidate who got zero votes?

(and some complain certain ballot papers at our current GE are too long!)

This seat was targeted by the longest ballot committee,  a group that protests against fptp by running a excess of candidates. I'm not sure if every independent was with them, but they sponsored the mass list of names.

[Oryxslayer]

Well this is bad for the Liberals. no question. Thinking they had narrowly held it until almost the very end of the count probably increases the psychological trauma too.

Anybody know anything about the candidate who got zero votes?

(and some complain certain ballot papers at our current GE are too long!)

This seat was targeted by the longest ballot committee,  a group that protests against fptp by running a excess of candidates. I'm not sure if every independent was with them, but they sponsored the mass list of names.

The Longest Ballot people are to electoral reform what the "Just Stop Oil" people are to climate change activism. Attention seekers latching onto a progressive cause as an excuse to be a nuisance.

No complaints from me:

https://twitter.com/ElectionsCan_E/status/1805375398307389567?t=ZmN4EjQi5T79CJoy...

(When people complain about US counts relative to stuff like this, it's often forgotten an American GE ballot is longer than this with many contests, sometimes on numerous pages)

[Oryxslayer]

Isn’t the turnout really high for a game 7 Stanley cup day?

I think the large number of advance poll voters suggests people know they could/would have other priorities (job -> potential then locked-in game 7) but still were aware of the overall significance of he contest.

[Oryxslayer]

'Supermajority' doesn't actually mean anything in Canada either, right?

Unless you are talking constitutional changes, in which case it's a supermajority of the provincial governments.