Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Meclazine for Israel]

The Butcher of Bucha is on the move.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-12/ukraine-and-pentagon-expect-russian-offensive-in-donbas/100984394

This new guy looks nasty.

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I think the US and it's Allies saying that they are going to crush the Russian military threat and admit they are providing intelligence to sink ships etc.

If Russia feels threatened, they may freak out.

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Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.5%      +3.6%      +4.2%          +1.7%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.2%       +7.7%      +8.2%      +2.3%          +1.9%

Russia's economic prospects are getting stronger as expected 2022 CPI continues to fall and the expected fall in GDP is expected to be less than what was expected in April-May.   

In the collective West, the picture gets darker with expected GDP continuing to fall while expected CPI continues to surge.  PRC's growth picture is also getting worse not because of the war but due to repeating COVID-19 lockdowns.  The war is actually helping the PRC in terms of inflation as it is able to import Russian energy at a discount which counters growth in price levels.

The Russian June MoM CPI is expected to be negative so in terms of MoM figures, Russia is now entering into deflation while the inflationary surge continues in the rest of the collective west.

UK looks set to go into economic meltdown.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%      +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.5%      +3.6%      +4.2%          +1.7%


2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.2%       +7.7%      +8.2%      +2.3%          +1.9%

Russia's economic prospects are getting stronger as expected 2022 CPI continues to fall and the expected fall in GDP is expected to be less than what was expected in April-May.   

In the collective West, the picture gets darker with expected GDP continuing to fall while expected CPI continues to surge.  PRC's growth picture is also getting worse not because of the war but due to repeating COVID-19 lockdowns.  The war is actually helping the PRC in terms of inflation as it is able to import Russian energy at a discount which counters growth in price levels.

The Russian June MoM CPI is expected to be negative so in terms of MoM figures, Russia is now entering into deflation while the inflationary surge continues in the rest of the collective west.

UK looks set to go into economic meltdown.

I agree that is why I think the UK numbers seem too optimistic.  On the other hand that is what the average investment bank research reports say for now so I have to publish as is.

Yes, I have a wealthy English friend living in Australia, and he told me last week that the UK are not in good shape.

The monthly English national debt interest bill alone is billions of dollars.

https://news.sky.com/story/government-forced-to-make-record-interest-payment-on-public-debt-12639029

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I can understand Iran, but I would not have expected Turkey as an allie of Russia

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Kings and Generals

Medieval Origins of Ukraine

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uyHWEOoPnM

Rise of the Cossacks

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQ_ocyTRRIE

These guys are getting pretty good at explaining history with maps.

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Fell...or pushed.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-01/russian-oil-executive-ravil-maganov-dies/101397754

Apparently, he was opposed to the war in Ukraine from the outset.

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Former Australian Treasurer, Joe Hockey, says that the chances of Putin using nuclear weapons in this conflict are running at about 30%.

https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/conflict/joe-hockey-agrees-with-joe-bidens-nuclear-russian-war-prediction-c-8524107

That is about 29.999% higher than what I was hoping.

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Perth businessman Andrew Forrest to donate $750 million dollars to help re-build Ukraine infrastructure.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-17/andrew-forrest-rebuilding-ukraine-744-million/101667346

"With support from other global investors, Tattarang expects the fund to grow to at least $US100 billion, to be poured into primary infrastructure including energy and communications."

[Meclazine for Israel]

Known as "Señor Sausage" and "The Sausage King", sausage magnate and Russian politican Pavel Antov fell from an indian Hotel's Terrace and died on the weekend.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-29/indian-police-investigate-russian-oligarch-death/101815414

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64101437



Antov had set up the Vladimir Standard company in the 2000s and became a well-regarded lawmaker in the city of Vladimir

This follows two other senior Russian oligarchs and politician's who have also fallen from windows recently.

"Oligarch and chairman of Russian oil company Lukoil, Ravil Maganov, died in September after falling from a hospital window in Moscow, according to Reuters. "

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62750584

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https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/3790535-murder-putin-wrote/

Looks like he should have minded his own sausage.

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrock-ceo-larry-fink-ukraine-president-zelensky-investments-184938062.html

"BlackRock to advise Zelensky on investments aimed to rebuild Ukraine"

I got to give BlackRock credit on how to sniff out a profit-making opportunity. 

Not a dumb idea.

There is an Australian iron ore magnate, Andrew Forrest, who has already met Zelensky and promised to help rebuild Ukraine.

Business is business and these guys can see that Ukraine will need a lot of help to get their infrastructure back up and running.

I think it's a genuine sign of support.

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This thread has turned into a 2023 Military Spec Buyers Guide.

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Russian flags not welcome at the Australian Open tennis championship.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-17/russian-belarusian-flags-banned-at-australian-open-tennis/101861770

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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64391272

What could possibly go wrong with a Russian invasion on June 22 by German tanks?

Stalingrad, here we come.

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https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-president-biden-visits-war-time-kyiv-ahead-invasion-anniversary-2023-02-20/

"U.S. President Biden pledges military aid during Kyiv visit"

The new military aid package will be $500 million

That:s a huge amount of money.

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Australian Defence Personnel are training up Ukrainians on fighting in a war zone.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-22/adf-training-ukrainian-recruits-operation-kudu-uk/102007526

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I predicted Covid 19 and the Ukrainian invasion to both be over within two weeks.

Man, did I get that wrong. 1 year on, Russia have made very little progress. The fight inside the Ukrainian people is unbelievable.

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Russian soldiers have made videos of Ukrainian soldiers being beheaded.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/11/europe/beheading-videos-ukraine-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday condemned as "beasts" those who purportedly beheaded Ukrainian soldiers shown in two videos that emerged on social media in the past week."

Nasty affair.

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When did Virginia turn into a military strategist?

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These recent developments have me freaking out. I can't even sleep

Should keep the thread alive for another 200 pages.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Russia's GDP has reached a level well above pre-war levels.

Keep in mind the exchange rate changes over the same period of time.

On June 1, 2022, One USD was worth 52 Rubels.

On October 1, 2023, One USD was worth 92 Rubels.

They are running a GDP somewhere in the order of USD $2.29 Trillion. Oil, guns, nickel etc are making them a fortune.

When calculated in Russian Rubels, they are actually booming this year in terms of GDP. Since June 22, they would have doubled their GDP in the local currency.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Russia's GDP has reached a level well above pre-war levels.

Keep in mind the exchange rate changes over the same period of time.

On June 1, 2022, One USD was worth 52 Rubels.

On October 1, 2023, One USD was worth 92 Rubels.

They are running a GDP somewhere in the order of USD $2.29 Trillion. Oil, guns, nickel etc are making them a fortune.

When calculated in Russian Rubels, they are actually booming this year in terms of GDP. Since June 22, they would have doubled their GDP in the local currency.

These GDP numbers are in real terms which strips out inflation.    The JPM index on the effective exchange rate which takes into account relative inflation between different currencies has the RUB index right now about the same as right before the start of the war.  This pretty much means the RUB decline relative to the start of the war merely reflects relation inflation.   This means taking effective exchange rates into account the chart above is mostly reflective of real output and does not over estimate or underestimate the impact of the decline of RUB.

Inflation is not the same as exchange rate.

They are very distinct economic attributes.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Inflation is not the same as exchange rate.

They are very distinct economic attributes.

Totally agree.  This is why I attributed the JPM index to real effective currency strength which adjusts for inflation differentials.  That index had RUB much stronger than inflation differentials would suggest most of 2022 but most of 2023 was weaker than inflation differentials would suggest.  Just in the last couple of weeks, that index is pretty much the same as it was right before the war started.  So as of today and relative to right before the war the RUB exchange rate can almost completely be explained by inflation differentials.  There is no guarantee that it will stay that way in the future since as you correctly assert, inflation is not the same as exchange rate.

Either way, they are makin' lots of coin.

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Doctor K

Pepsi in Russia

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CyGsvOPNh7y/