United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Compuzled_One]

Worth keeping an eye, perhaps, on the constituencies being visited by the leaders.

So far today, I make it that Sunak has visited the Vale of Glamorgan (2.7% swing needed for Labour) and somewhere in Derbyshire (didn't catch where, if it was only a single constituency). Starmer has been to Gillingham and Rainham (16.5% swing needed for Labour).

Seems Sunak is weirdly confident.

[Compuzled_One]

Worth keeping an eye, perhaps, on the constituencies being visited by the leaders.

So far today, I make it that Sunak has visited the Vale of Glamorgan (2.7% swing needed for Labour) and somewhere in Derbyshire (didn't catch where, if it was only a single constituency). Starmer has been to Gillingham and Rainham (16.5% swing needed for Labour).

Seems Sunak is weirdly confident.

He has to visit Wales at some point and very few of the current Tory seats have huge majorities.

Ah, gotcha.

[Compuzled_One]

https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1794443322641047575

That's reversible with a Truman level campaign.

Of course, Sunak isn't running one.

[Compuzled_One]

The canada election comparison comes to my mind is the Liberal one where they accidentally assaulted a teenager, the PM lost his cool with literal preteens and a cabinet minister poked a farmer calling him fat.

Gosh which election was that?

I assume the 1957 one, but I can't find anything on that.

[Compuzled_One]

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1798397650573676618

it would be amazing to see this result come to pass. Not sure it will though. How many candidates does Reform have at this point?

80-100, according to this article. I would assume (as an amateur) a good chunk of these are in Scotland or something though, which I think is mostly a Labour-SNP battle with some safe Conservative seats.

https://inews.co.uk/news/reform-uk-more-80-candidates-short-nigel-farage-3091154

[Compuzled_One]

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1798397650573676618

it would be amazing to see this result come to pass. Not sure it will though. How many candidates does Reform have at this point?

80-100, according to this article. I would assume (as an amateur) a good chunk of these are in Scotland or something though, which I think is mostly a Labour-SNP battle with some safe Conservative seats.

https://inews.co.uk/news/reform-uk-more-80-candidates-short-nigel-farage-3091154

There hasn't been a 'safe' Tory seat in Scotland in decades.

I guess I got the impression Tories held the South pretty well, since in basically all maps I've seen of this election they hold it.

Anyway, guess Reform's influence might be somewhat smaller with that in mind, although I assume Farage coming back will help them pick some MPs.

[Compuzled_One]

so such a result is unlikely given they don't have many candidates.

Is missing less than a sixth of candidates, especially since I assume they're mostly in constituencies where they'll be lucky to crack 5%, that bad?

[Compuzled_One]

so such a result is unlikely given they don't have many candidates.

Is missing less than a sixth of candidates, especially since I assume they're mostly in constituencies where they'll be lucky to crack 5%, that bad?

Duke of York originally asked how many candidates Reform have, and you responded with how many they're missing, which I think is where the confusion is stemming from.

Fair point, I suppose.

Some journalists here started talking about Canada 1993. And how Nigel Farages goal is basically to make the Tories lose so that they have to merge with Reform and make the Conservative Party more right wing / conservative and have people like Farage have more influence.

Yeah, that's been the guys goal since Brexit. If YouGov's new poll is accurate (which I doubt), he might damn well do it, or even have Reform replace the Tories.

[Compuzled_One]

Stepping aside from that (insanely bigoted) comment and to the YouGov poll, I doubt it holds-as someone else here said, Reform UK has less infrastructure than the Tories. And to be, this growth seems to be to insane to be true. If there's two similar polls (especially with more people), I can see the case for this one being right.

[Compuzled_One]

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1798397650573676618

it would be amazing to see this result come to pass. Not sure it will though. How many candidates does Reform have at this point?

80-100, according to this article. I would assume (as an amateur) a good chunk of these are in Scotland or something though, which I think is mostly a Labour-SNP battle with some safe Conservative seats.

https://inews.co.uk/news/reform-uk-more-80-candidates-short-nigel-farage-3091154

There hasn't been a 'safe' Tory seat in Scotland in decades.

I guess I got the impression Tories held the South pretty well, since in basically all maps I've seen of this election they hold it.

Anyway, guess Reform's influence might be somewhat smaller with that in mind, although I assume Farage coming back will help them pick some MPs.

The South of Scotland is very weak for the SNP. Since the SNP has been ascendant for the last decade and Labour in the wilderness, the Tories have had minimal challenge for the southern seats. But Labour is not as fundamentally weak there as the SNP, and the decline of both the SNP and the Tories probably makes those seats more vulnerable to Labour than they look on paper. (The Lib Dems also used to be relevant there and competed with the Tories but seem to be dead in southern Scotland nowadays.)

That explains it, thank you.

[Compuzled_One]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1798739124935102793

Okay, so Reform might actually be catching up to the Conservatives instead of it being a blip, although a bigger poll would be way more useful.

[Compuzled_One]

Survation CEO just posted a picture of an asteroid impact in regards to the poll dropping in 50 mins.

The most I expect is another 19:17 Tory/Reform ratio, but I doubt even that.

[Compuzled_One]

https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1798751741057409248
Okay, this definitely could've been worse, and the poll "only" had a thousand people polled, but that Reform gain is insane. Now, I genuinely do think they might pass the Tories in the PV, and I'm definitely feeling the Tories will end up in third place seat wise to the LDs at least.

[Compuzled_One]

Sunak cut short his appearance at the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of D-Day to campaign??!?!?

I can't call it anything else besides massively inconsiderate.

Well, nothing else morally. Electorally, it's a bad call and might be what gets Farage over him come the next YouGov poll.

[Compuzled_One]

Did Reform manage to get candidates in all or almost all constituencies?

[Compuzled_One]

Did Reform manage to get candidates in all or almost all constituencies?

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1799099753634128305

I do assume most of those are so anti-RUK that they can't have even played spoiler, but yeah, this ain't good for them.

[Compuzled_One]

If this is the BBC framing, Farage is going to have a fun few days:

Okay, yeah, maybe Reform won't pass the Tories (unless they can counter this or it's more well liked than assumed for some reason).

[Compuzled_One]

Meow.

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1799189236744163459

Lest we forget that the Tories are only even existentially imploding right now because Piers Morgan calling Farage a wimp to his face on live TV 9 days ago goaded him into standing.

I think it was the Trump conviction that caused Farage to stand.

Anyway, seems all those 1993 Canada Predictions might come true on some level then, given the panic at the HQ and the newest dumb decision by Sunak to cancel interviews.

[Compuzled_One]

Side note, if we look at the 3 day average and plug it into electoral calculus (which is wonky, but still), then the results are this.

505 LAB (oh my god)
49 CON
49 LD (uh...)
18 SNP
18 NI
4 PC
3 REF
2 GRN
2 Other (I assume Corbyn is one of these)

So basically, Tories are already tied for second in seats, and there's still time to screw it up more with the debate tonight and the one tomorrow (which will have Rishi and Farage). Obviously though, that also means there's time for Rishi to grow a brain and make this less embarrassing. Although, I do wonder what happens if these (somehow) end up being the actual results. Who's the opposition?

[Compuzled_One]

Man, I thought self-sabotaging in NCT was unrealistic

If I had a million pounds for every bad decision Sunak made or will make in this campaign then I would have enough money to buy a California mansion for every Tory MP who likely lost because of him to join him there if they wanted to do so.

That sounds like a fun sitcom.

[Compuzled_One]

Are there gonna be any more MRP polls this election season (especially after the ITV debate), or is the three we got about it?

[Compuzled_One]

https://www.twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1801291564997636520

Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) on X
Labour leads by 24%.

Lowest EVER Conservative % (worse than Truss).

Highest Lib Dem % in 2024.

🇬🇧 Westminster Voting Intention (12-13 June):

Labour 42% (-3)
Conservative 18% (-1)
Reform 17% (–)
Lib Dem 13% (+3)
Green 5% (–)
SNP 3% (–)
Other 1% (–)

Conservatives dropping even further (but still ever so barely slightly ahead of Reform), and this is the 2nd recent poll with a significant Lib Dem gain.

This is getting into the territory where the Tories could actually come in 3rd in seats.

If Reform gets ahead, I think they might get 5th.

[Compuzled_One]

Now, the rational side of me says Reform outdoing the Tories in any poll is bad, especially if Labour implodes in the next five years or those predictions China's economy falls come true, since we now could have a rabidly anti-LGBT party filled with racists in opposition and with a shot at winning. But the political junkie side in me that wants to see how big the Tory collapse will be in the next three weeks, and what it'll look like, can only think one thing.

[Compuzled_One]

https://twitter.com/RealAlbanianPat/status/1801333337383927933

That's a big jump Reform has over ECs prediction.

[Compuzled_One]

Absolute car crash from Penny Mordaunt.

Farage asked her something to the effect of "immigration has risen by millions over the past few years, why should anyone trust you?".

Mordaunt - "Because of the record of this Prime Minister..."

Cue laughter.

It's so over. This debate was the last chance to save the Conservatives from being Canada '93'd or 2011'd, and THIS sounds like the worst case scenario, especially with this poll.