2018 New Brunswick election

[the506]

Mainstreet: 35-29-16-15-3.

Look at those Fredericton numbers: 29-23-23-22.

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/nb-liberals-leading-as-election-draws-to-a-close/

[RogueBeaver]

So a Greeit minority then?

[Hatman 🍁]

Or the slimmest of majorities. Depends how well the Greens and PA do in terms of seat distribution.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, weird poll. Why is Saint John lumped in with the rest of New Brunswick? It's the province's second largest city.

The 'rest of NB' numbers are useless, since it covers such a diverse region.

[the506]

Yup. I still think the most likely scenario is the Liberals keeping their majority off PA-PC vote splits.

[Hatman 🍁]

There will be Green-Liberal vote splits too, and that will hurt the Liberals in at least Fredericton, and possibly Moncton. Might cost them Fredericton North, and the two PC held Moncton seats.

[DC Al Fine]

Also, weird poll. Why is Saint John lumped in with the rest of New Brunswick? It's the province's second largest city.

The 'rest of NB' numbers are useless, since it covers such a diverse region.

My recollection from last years provincial election in NS was that the geographical splits were terrible all around.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm starting to think that I'm the only pollster in the country that gives a damn about geography at all.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm starting to think that I'm the only pollster in the country that gives a damn about geography at all.

Turns out Mainstreet's wasn't that bad... but Forums was ing horrendous.

[the506]

With all the recent movement in the polls, I'm going to update my outlook on the ridings....in the case of tossups, the first one listed is what my Elect-O-Matic 3000 (TM) says is going to win. As always, I reserve the right to be wrong:

SAINT JOHN AREA
Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins: likely PC
Hampton: likely PC
Quispamsis: safe PC
Rothesay: safe PC
Saint John East: PC-Liberal tossup
Portland-Simonds: leaning PC
Saint John Harbour: Liberal-PC tossup
Saint John Lancaster: PC-Liberal tossup
Kings Centre: PC-Liberal tossup
Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West: Liberal-PC tossup
Charlotte-Campobello: leaning PC

FREDERICTON AREA
Gagetown-Petitcodiac: likely PC
Oromocto-Lincoln: Liberal-PC tossup
Fredericton-Grand Lake: likely PANB
New Maryland-Sunbury: PC-Liberal tossup
Fredericton South: likely Green
Fredericton North: Liberal-PC-Green tossup
Fredericton-York: PC-Liberal-PANB tossup
Fredericton West-Hanwell: PC-Liberal tossup
Carleton-York: leaning PC
Carleton: likely PC
Carleton-Victoria: Liberal-PC tossup

MONCTON AREA
Kent North: Liberal-Green tossup
Kent South: likely Liberal
Shediac Bay-Dieppe: safe Liberal
Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé: likely Liberal
Memramcook-Tantramar: Liberal-Green tossup
Dieppe: safe Liberal
Moncton East: leaning Liberal
Moncton Centre: Liberal-PC-indy tossup
Moncton South: Liberal-PC tossup
Moncton Northwest: leaning PC
Moncton Southwest: leaning PC
Riverview: safe PC
Albert: leaning PC

NORTH
Restigouche West: likely Liberal
Campbellton-Dalhousie: likely Liberal
Restigouche-Chaleur: safe Liberal
Bathurst West-Beresford: safe Liberal
Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore: safe Liberal
Caraquet: leaning Liberal
Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou: PC-Liberal tossup
Tracadie-Sheila: likely Liberal
Miramichi Bay-Neguac: Liberal-PC tossup
Miramichi: PC-Liberal tossup
Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin: PC-PANB tossup
Victoria-La Vallée: leaning Liberal
Edmundston-Madawaska Centre: likely Liberal
Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston: Liberal-PC tossup

It all adds up to....
Liberal - 25
PC - 22
Green - 1
PANB - 1

[the506]

One last poll from Forum: 36-29-16-14-4.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/1057eeda-8d65-48d7-8a72-c4fb93758d9dNb%20final%202018.pdf

[Hatman 🍁]

Their Fredericton numbers confirm the cluster that is that city. Just like Mainstreet, they have the Liberals ahead there though, which is not what I've been seeing...

[JoeyOCanada]

This is going to be one of the most interesting NB elections in recent memory

[Hatman 🍁]

I've got 25-22-1-1 as well, but some of the seats are different. And I'm being rather conservative on PANB and Green chances at multiple seats, which I think is very likely, but I can't be sure exactly where they will make gains, as there could be some surprises.

[jaichind]

I assume results will start to come out 7PM EST?  Any links to live stream and results ?

[JoeyOCanada]

I assume results will start to come out 7PM EST?  Any links to live stream and results ?

I'm guessing there will be a Live stream on CBC's website (or YouTube channel) or alternatively if you just want results, you can go here:

https://www.gnb.ca/elections/results-resultats/2018-09-24/results-resultats.html#at/e468f4a1-f9de-4425-a60a-cb5cbca025b5/ar/51/

[Hatman 🍁]

My predictions. We haven't done any riding polls, so most of this is based on small sample sizes.

Seats with an asterix (*) denote high uncertainty

Fredericton CA
Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton
Fredericton-Grand Lake (gain)
New Maryland-Sunbury
Fredericton South
Fredericton North* (gain)
Fredericton-York
Fredericton West-Hanwell

Unlike the other pollsters, our numbers don't show the Liberals leading in Fredericton, thus the shutout. There will be a lot of 3-way or even 4-way races though. Fredericton North will be emblematic of this.

Moncton CMA
Shediac Bay-Dieppe
Dieppe
Moncton East
Moncton Centre
Moncton South
Moncton Northwest* (gain)
Moncton Southwest* (gain)
Riverview
Albert*


We've got the Liberals doing well in Moncton, but does that mean any seat gains? Possibly, but not certainly. Also, the PANB could win Albert, just as the COR did in 1991.

Rural North & East
Restigouche West
Campbellton-Dalhousie
Restigouche-Chaleur
Bathurst West-Beresford
Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore
Caraquet
Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou
Tracadie-Sheila*
Miramichi Bay-Neguac
Miramichi*
Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin* (gain)
Kent North
Kent South
Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé*
Memramcook-Tantramar
Edmundston-Madawaska Centre (gain)
Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston

The Liberals have some massive leads in this Francophone majority part of the province, and is why they have a seat disadvantage overall. While I'm predicting a sweep, it's not that likely that will actually happen. There will be some races to watch here for sure. Things are super close in Tracadie-Sheila where former MLA Claude Landry looks to take his seat back from the PCs. In the two Miramichi seats, we could be looking at some 3-ways with the Liberals, PCs and PANB. I think the Liberals come up the middle in both, but who knows. Without Mado Dube on the ballot, Edmundston-Madawaska Centre will be an easy pickup for the Grits. The Greens also might have a shot at Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pelé, which is an open seat and has had some water quality problems at a local beach, which may be fueling some environmental activism.


Saint John CMA
Hampton
Quispamsis
Rothesay
Saint John East (gain from last election)
Portland-Simonds
Saint John Harbour* (gain)
Saint John Lancaster
Kings Centre

We've got the PCs well ahead in Saint John, but that doesn't mean the swing will be uniform. Working class Saint John Harbour may buck the trend and stay with the Liberals. The question will be how much does NDP leader Jennifer Mackenzie siphon off Liberal votes there? May be enough to give the PCs the victory, even if she only gets ~10% of the vote.

Rural South & West
Gagetown-Petitcodiac
Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins
Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West*
Saint Croix (gain)
Carleton-York
Carleton* (gain)
Carleton-Victoria
Victoria-La Vallée* (gain)

The PCs are polling very well in the southwest too, and it might be enough to sweep the region. However, they have to have a huge swing in Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West to overcome in order to do so. They don't have as much of a swing to overcome in Victoria-La Vallée though, but the riding's Francophones may have something to say about that. Looks like the race in Carleton might be really interesting. It could be a surprise Green pickup, as they are running the Deputy Mayor of Woodstock. The PANB may also come up the middle there.

[mileslunn]

Unless the polls are spectacularly wrong, I think we can expect a few things today.

1.  Liberals will win the popular vote
2.  Liberals will get under 40%
3.  PCs will get a smaller share of the popular vote than they got in 2014
4.  The PC + PANB vote will exceed the Liberal one so vote splitting here and will also be over 40%
5. PC vote is more efficient so they can still win more seats even if they don't win the popular vote as Liberals will run up the margins in the Francophone parts, but PCs will win majority of Anglophone seats albeit by much smaller margins.
6.  Lots of three and even four way races in Fredericton, highly likely a few MLAs will be elected with less than 30% of the popular vote.

[RedPrometheus]

At what time do the polls close?

[the506]

8 local, 7 ET.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm guessing using the cube root model:

Lib: 28
PC: 17
Green: 2
PA: 2

I'm usually spectacularly wrong, so given my projection, you should all bet on a Tory majority

[VPH]

Anecdotally, a friend with pretty deep New Brunswick political connections says that turnout in some of the super-Liberal St. John polls isn't as high as it should be.

[Hatman 🍁]

Turnout in Saint John was pretty low last time. The amount of voters in the entire metro area was less than in Fredericton, despite having one more seat.

[ON Progressive]

Turnout in Saint John was pretty low last time. The amount of voters in the entire metro area was less than in Fredericton, despite having one more seat.

Any theories as to why?

[Hatman 🍁]

Turnout in Saint John was pretty low last time. The amount of voters in the entire metro area was less than in Fredericton, despite having one more seat.

Any theories as to why?

Saint John is a fairly poor city, while Fredericton is the capital, so lots of highly engaged public servants.