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Author Topic: Presidential statistics  (Read 1372 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

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« on: July 28, 2009, 03:40:19 PM »

Some data... Probably totally useless, but a quite funny work :


A president elected for the first time has :

- 45,5% chances to be reelected
- 12,1% chances not to run again
- 9,1% chances to naturally die during his first term
- 6,1% chances to be assassinated during his first term
- 27,3% chances to be defeated while seeking a second term


In this case :

A reelected president has :

- 53,3% chances for his party to keep the White House
- 26,7% chances for his party to lose the White House
- 13,3% chances to be assassinated during his second term
- 6,7% chances to resign during his second term

When a president doesn't run for a second term, his party has :

- 50% chances to keep the White House
- 50% chances to lose the White House

A defeated President has 11,1% chances to be elected again later.


A Vice-President that succeeds to a dead or resigning President has :

- 44,4% chances to be reelected
- 44,4% chances not to run
- 11,1% chances to be defeated


In this case :

A reelected president has :

- 50% chances for his party to keep the White House
- 50% chances for his party to lose the White House

When a president doesn't run, his party has 100% chances to lose the White House.

A defeated president has 0% chances to be elected again later.
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Alexander Hamilton
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 9,167
United States


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E: 0.58, S: -5.13

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« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2009, 06:24:29 PM »




A defeated president has 0% chances to be elected again later.

Grover Cleveland?
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FloridaRepublican
justrhyno
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« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2009, 06:29:24 PM »




A defeated president has 0% chances to be elected again later.

Grover Cleveland?


Touché
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nclib
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« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2009, 07:24:49 PM »




A defeated president has 0% chances to be elected again later.

Grover Cleveland?


I thought his paragraph began with


A Vice-President that succeeds to a dead or resigning President has Sad

- 44,4% chances to be reelected
- 44,4% chances not to run
- 11,1% chances to be defeated


In this case Sad

A reelected president has :

- 50% chances for his party to keep the White House
- 50% chances for his party to lose the White House

When a president doesn't run, his party has 100% chances to lose the White House.

A defeated president has 0% chances to be elected again later.
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phk
phknrocket1k
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E: 1.42, S: -1.22

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« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2009, 12:13:01 AM »

Pretty small sample size.
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Alexander Hamilton
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 9,167
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: -5.13

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« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2009, 12:20:07 AM »




A defeated president has 0% chances to be elected again later.

Grover Cleveland?


I thought his paragraph began with


A Vice-President that succeeds to a dead or resigning President has Sad

- 44,4% chances to be reelected
- 44,4% chances not to run
- 11,1% chances to be defeated


In this case Sad

A reelected president has :

- 50% chances for his party to keep the White House
- 50% chances for his party to lose the White House

When a president doesn't run, his party has 100% chances to lose the White House.

A defeated president has 0% chances to be elected again later.

The preceding statements have no association with the latter statistically. Cleveland was defeated, and was elected later, so the 0% chance cannot possibly be true.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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Posts: 57,964
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Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

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« Reply #6 on: July 31, 2009, 09:53:55 AM »

In the case when he began his term having been elected :

A defeated President has 11,1% chances to be elected again later.


In the case when he succeeds to a dead or resigning president :

A defeated president has 0% chances to be elected again later.


I thought it was clear enough.
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: July 31, 2009, 10:05:55 AM »

A 15% chance you'll die in office. Probably makes the Presidency one of the most dangerous jobs in the world.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 57,964
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
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« Reply #8 on: July 31, 2009, 10:20:00 AM »

A 15% chance you'll die in office. Probably makes the Presidency one of the most dangerous jobs in the world.

21% if you take into account those who died during their second term... Yeah, quite dangerous ! Cheesy
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