2016 watch: Clinton doesn't think she will run for president again (user search)
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  2016 watch: Clinton doesn't think she will run for president again (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2016 watch: Clinton doesn't think she will run for president again  (Read 9579 times)
pragmatic liberal
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Posts: 520


« on: July 26, 2009, 08:46:59 PM »

Was just writing a 2016 thread... I'll fold it here.

No one knew who the hell Illinois State Senator Barack Obama was in 2001.   It could happen again but it's a rare occurrence.  Most candidates are in fact known 7 years before being nominated for president, or would be in today's universe of political internet junkies.  Looking ahead in 1985 to 1992 if the world were like it is now, we would certainly be speculating about Bill Clinton, a governor in his late 30s reputed to have great political skills.  So while it's very possible we'll see another Obama first elected in 2012 or something,  here are picks on most likely 2016 Democratic nominee from where we are now.

1.     Hillary Clinton
2.     Joe Biden
3.     Andrew Cuomo
4.     Brian Schweitzer
5.     Mark Warner
6.     Claire McCaskill
7.     Al Franken
8.     Tim Kaine
9.     Kay Hagan
10.   Chet Culver

Hillary on Meet the Press sounded sincerely uninterested in ever running for president again.  But, unless the Administration is a single term or becomes unpopular like W's, the rank, fame and access to the establishment of being VP or Secretary of State would be a big advantage, their age notwithstanding.  And a series of polls showing someone the top choice for president would probably at least make him or her think about it.  And maybe she even is leaning toward a run now and just masking it well.  Who knows?  I actually think the North Korea potshot at her being a "pensioner" combined with the treatment McCain got may make the idea less attractive.  Who wants to be called old every 5 minutes?  These people are human beings.  And feminism or not, it's probably sucks more to get that as a woman.  Biden will be in his early 70s, yes, but the 3 popular term-limited presidents were all succeeded by their VPs as nominee.

Cuomo might seem high to place someone who is just a state's AG right now but he's the favorite to be elected governor of New York next year, the capital of news.  Plus he has a headstart on national fame being a legacy.  If he performs well in the job, he'd be well positioned to make a run during his second term as governor.   if he can resist the hookers that is.

Schweitzer proved he could hit a home run with a national speech and is a decent bet to do so again at the 2012 convention.  His obsession with guns would be a huge asset and drawback depending on the state.

Warner is popular but might lean a little too conservative for a Democratic primary.  Of course, John Edwards voted conservatively than claimed with success he was a populist so who knows?  In the keynote, he seemed uninspiring.

Fellow Virginian Kaine is also likely to be too conservative to thrive in a national Democratic primary but Obama likes him and is very likely to give him a job if re-elected.  If it's a plum one like Attorney General, Kaine could be in a good position, visibility-wise, to launch a run. 

McCaskill is well-liked by Democrats, from an Iowa neighbor and, if Hillary doesn't run, is arguably the woman most likely to and co-opt the feminist energy that powered Hillary's campaign.  Perhaps Gillibrand but I left her off because I don't even know if she'll survive her primary next year. 

Al Franken will have a voting record the base is likely to love, plus he has a higher national profile as a comedian and best-selling author and will attract attention.  Yet his high unfavorables with non-Democrats, unless that changes, could be an Achilles Heel in a primary where his electability is questioned.  He may prefer the relative freedom to be candid that someone who is not running for president has.

Hagan is the right age and could become a Southern and female favorite.  But, like Edwards, it seems hard to stay viable as both a North Carolina Senator and a Democratic presidential candidate without some serious reinvention.  Not everyone lies as well as Edwards does but she wouldn't be the first to play that game.  Blanche Lincoln is also the right age and a Southerner but seems too conservative to last long in a presidential primary. 

(EDIT: Oops.  Hagan will be 63 in 2016.  It's not disqualifying but I thought she instead would be in her mid-50s, actually, a much easier age to win a nomination.  I'd have listed Robin Carnahan who was born the same day as Obama and will be in her mid 50s, plus has a Latino husband and child.  I'd pick her to end up the keynote in 2012 if she wins her race next year but she seems not so strong a public speaker.)

Culver is placed well if only in that when 2016 rolls around, he'll be a good presidential age of 50 years old and maybe someone who just finished 8 years as governor of Iowa.  If he did so staying popular, there's many worse positions to be in to jump into the Iowa Caucuses.  Winning Iowa doesn't guarantee anything after but if you play your hand, you could turn it into something.


Argue with me if you wish.

I agree with most of this except that, as I said in another thread, I would not be shocked if Rahm Emanuel runs - yeah, CoS isn't a normal springboard to the presidency, but Rahm is an unusually public and powerful CoS and if he stays in the position for awhile or moves into a plum cabinet job in a second Obama term, I could easily see him running.

Also, about the Missouri gals - Robin Carnahan is actually a far better public speaker than Claire McCaskill. I really doubt that McCaskill will run for president ever - she's only a so-so public speaker, she's weak on environmental issues, she has a penchant for small gaffes, and she'll also be fairly old in 2016. Late 60s, I believe.
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