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  2016 watch: Clinton doesn't think she will run for president again
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Author Topic: 2016 watch: Clinton doesn't think she will run for president again  (Read 8789 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: July 26, 2009, 06:21:13 pm »

This is hardly a shermanesque denial, but probably worth mentioning:

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE56P1T120090726

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change08
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« Reply #1 on: July 26, 2009, 06:26:15 pm »

This is hardly a shermanesque denial, but probably worth mentioning:

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE56P1T120090726

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...Warner 2016! then?
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strangeland
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« Reply #2 on: July 26, 2009, 06:39:52 pm »

This is hardly a shermanesque denial, but probably worth mentioning:

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE56P1T120090726

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...Warner 2016! then?

Biden will be 73, and if he runs the nomination is probably his unless he's clearly senile.
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change08
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« Reply #3 on: July 26, 2009, 06:42:17 pm »

This is hardly a shermanesque denial, but probably worth mentioning:

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE56P1T120090726

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...Warner 2016! then?

Biden will be 73, and if he runs the nomination is probably his unless he's clearly senile.

I think it's doubtful that he'll run personally. I see 2016 being another "open" primary on both sides, like '08.
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change08
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« Reply #4 on: July 26, 2009, 07:58:34 pm »

1.     Hillary Clinton
2.     Joe Biden
3.     Andrew Cuomo
4.     Brian Schweitzer
5.     Mark Warner
6.     Claire McCaskill
7.     Al Franken Kristin Gillibrand
8.     Tim Kaine
9.     Kay Hagan
10.   Chet Culver


Although I like Franken, he could NEVER win a general election. I doubt he could make it through a primary either.
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benconstine
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« Reply #5 on: July 26, 2009, 08:41:10 pm »

Warner '16!  Warner '16!  Warner '16!  Warner '16!  Warner '16!  Warner '16!  Warner '16!
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« Reply #6 on: July 26, 2009, 08:45:57 pm »

Gillibrand 2016 FTW!!!! Cheesy

I think she might be our woman.

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pragmatic liberal
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« Reply #7 on: July 26, 2009, 08:46:59 pm »

Was just writing a 2016 thread... I'll fold it here.

No one knew who the hell Illinois State Senator Barack Obama was in 2001.   It could happen again but it's a rare occurrence.  Most candidates are in fact known 7 years before being nominated for president, or would be in today's universe of political internet junkies.  Looking ahead in 1985 to 1992 if the world were like it is now, we would certainly be speculating about Bill Clinton, a governor in his late 30s reputed to have great political skills.  So while it's very possible we'll see another Obama first elected in 2012 or something,  here are picks on most likely 2016 Democratic nominee from where we are now.

1.     Hillary Clinton
2.     Joe Biden
3.     Andrew Cuomo
4.     Brian Schweitzer
5.     Mark Warner
6.     Claire McCaskill
7.     Al Franken
8.     Tim Kaine
9.     Kay Hagan
10.   Chet Culver

Hillary on Meet the Press sounded sincerely uninterested in ever running for president again.  But, unless the Administration is a single term or becomes unpopular like W's, the rank, fame and access to the establishment of being VP or Secretary of State would be a big advantage, their age notwithstanding.  And a series of polls showing someone the top choice for president would probably at least make him or her think about it.  And maybe she even is leaning toward a run now and just masking it well.  Who knows?  I actually think the North Korea potshot at her being a "pensioner" combined with the treatment McCain got may make the idea less attractive.  Who wants to be called old every 5 minutes?  These people are human beings.  And feminism or not, it's probably sucks more to get that as a woman.  Biden will be in his early 70s, yes, but the 3 popular term-limited presidents were all succeeded by their VPs as nominee.

Cuomo might seem high to place someone who is just a state's AG right now but he's the favorite to be elected governor of New York next year, the capital of news.  Plus he has a headstart on national fame being a legacy.  If he performs well in the job, he'd be well positioned to make a run during his second term as governor.   if he can resist the hookers that is.

Schweitzer proved he could hit a home run with a national speech and is a decent bet to do so again at the 2012 convention.  His obsession with guns would be a huge asset and drawback depending on the state.

Warner is popular but might lean a little too conservative for a Democratic primary.  Of course, John Edwards voted conservatively than claimed with success he was a populist so who knows?  In the keynote, he seemed uninspiring.

Fellow Virginian Kaine is also likely to be too conservative to thrive in a national Democratic primary but Obama likes him and is very likely to give him a job if re-elected.  If it's a plum one like Attorney General, Kaine could be in a good position, visibility-wise, to launch a run. 

McCaskill is well-liked by Democrats, from an Iowa neighbor and, if Hillary doesn't run, is arguably the woman most likely to and co-opt the feminist energy that powered Hillary's campaign.  Perhaps Gillibrand but I left her off because I don't even know if she'll survive her primary next year. 

Al Franken will have a voting record the base is likely to love, plus he has a higher national profile as a comedian and best-selling author and will attract attention.  Yet his high unfavorables with non-Democrats, unless that changes, could be an Achilles Heel in a primary where his electability is questioned.  He may prefer the relative freedom to be candid that someone who is not running for president has.

Hagan is the right age and could become a Southern and female favorite.  But, like Edwards, it seems hard to stay viable as both a North Carolina Senator and a Democratic presidential candidate without some serious reinvention.  Not everyone lies as well as Edwards does but she wouldn't be the first to play that game.  Blanche Lincoln is also the right age and a Southerner but seems too conservative to last long in a presidential primary. 

(EDIT: Oops.  Hagan will be 63 in 2016.  It's not disqualifying but I thought she instead would be in her mid-50s, actually, a much easier age to win a nomination.  I'd have listed Robin Carnahan who was born the same day as Obama and will be in her mid 50s, plus has a Latino husband and child.  I'd pick her to end up the keynote in 2012 if she wins her race next year but she seems not so strong a public speaker.)

Culver is placed well if only in that when 2016 rolls around, he'll be a good presidential age of 50 years old and maybe someone who just finished 8 years as governor of Iowa.  If he did so staying popular, there's many worse positions to be in to jump into the Iowa Caucuses.  Winning Iowa doesn't guarantee anything after but if you play your hand, you could turn it into something.


Argue with me if you wish.

I agree with most of this except that, as I said in another thread, I would not be shocked if Rahm Emanuel runs - yeah, CoS isn't a normal springboard to the presidency, but Rahm is an unusually public and powerful CoS and if he stays in the position for awhile or moves into a plum cabinet job in a second Obama term, I could easily see him running.

Also, about the Missouri gals - Robin Carnahan is actually a far better public speaker than Claire McCaskill. I really doubt that McCaskill will run for president ever - she's only a so-so public speaker, she's weak on environmental issues, she has a penchant for small gaffes, and she'll also be fairly old in 2016. Late 60s, I believe.
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paul718
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« Reply #8 on: July 26, 2009, 08:49:44 pm »


Biden will be 73, and if he runs the nomination is probably his unless he's clearly senile.

You really think so?  I can't see the Democrats nominating a 73-year old.  And it's not like Biden has a following of any sort.  In a Republican race, the sitting VP would have a head start.  But not so mucg with the Democrats, unless you're someone like Al Gore.
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« Reply #9 on: July 26, 2009, 08:58:32 pm »

This is hardly a shermanesque denial, but probably worth mentioning:

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE56P1T120090726

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...Warner 2016! then?

Biden will be 73, and if he runs the nomination is probably his unless he's clearly senile.

Agreed. I really do not understand why so many people see him as not running in 2016.
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semocrat08
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« Reply #10 on: July 26, 2009, 11:58:40 pm »

Was just writing a 2016 thread... I'll fold it here.

No one knew who the hell Illinois State Senator Barack Obama was in 2001.   It could happen again but it's a rare occurrence.  Most candidates are in fact known 7 years before being nominated for president, or would be in today's universe of political internet junkies.  Looking ahead in 1985 to 1992 if the world were like it is now, we would certainly be speculating about Bill Clinton, a governor in his late 30s reputed to have great political skills.  So while it's very possible we'll see another Obama first elected in 2012 or something,  here are picks on most likely 2016 Democratic nominee from where we are now.

1.     Hillary Clinton
2.     Joe Biden
3.     Andrew Cuomo
4.     Brian Schweitzer
5.     Mark Warner
6.     Claire McCaskill
7.     Al Franken
8.     Tim Kaine
9.     Kay Hagan
10.   Chet Culver

Hillary on Meet the Press sounded sincerely uninterested in ever running for president again.  But, unless the Administration is a single term or becomes unpopular like W's, the rank, fame and access to the establishment of being VP or Secretary of State would be a big advantage, their age notwithstanding.  And a series of polls showing someone the top choice for president would probably at least make him or her think about it.  And maybe she even is leaning toward a run now and just masking it well.  Who knows?  I actually think the North Korea potshot at her being a "pensioner" combined with the treatment McCain got may make the idea less attractive.  Who wants to be called old every 5 minutes?  These people are human beings.  And feminism or not, it's probably sucks more to get that as a woman.  Biden will be in his early 70s, yes, but the 3 popular term-limited presidents were all succeeded by their VPs as nominee.

Cuomo might seem high to place someone who is just a state's AG right now but he's the favorite to be elected governor of New York next year, the capital of news.  Plus he has a headstart on national fame being a legacy.  If he performs well in the job, he'd be well positioned to make a run during his second term as governor.   if he can resist the hookers that is.

Schweitzer proved he could hit a home run with a national speech and is a decent bet to do so again at the 2012 convention.  His obsession with guns would be a huge asset and drawback depending on the state.

Warner is popular but might lean a little too conservative for a Democratic primary.  Of course, John Edwards voted conservatively than claimed with success he was a populist so who knows?  In the keynote, he seemed uninspiring.

Fellow Virginian Kaine is also likely to be too conservative to thrive in a national Democratic primary but Obama likes him and is very likely to give him a job if re-elected.  If it's a plum one like Attorney General, Kaine could be in a good position, visibility-wise, to launch a run. 

McCaskill is well-liked by Democrats, from an Iowa neighbor and, if Hillary doesn't run, is arguably the woman most likely to and co-opt the feminist energy that powered Hillary's campaign.  Perhaps Gillibrand but I left her off because I don't even know if she'll survive her primary next year. 

Al Franken will have a voting record the base is likely to love, plus he has a higher national profile as a comedian and best-selling author and will attract attention.  Yet his high unfavorables with non-Democrats, unless that changes, could be an Achilles Heel in a primary where his electability is questioned.  He may prefer the relative freedom to be candid that someone who is not running for president has.

Hagan is the right age and could become a Southern and female favorite.  But, like Edwards, it seems hard to stay viable as both a North Carolina Senator and a Democratic presidential candidate without some serious reinvention.  Not everyone lies as well as Edwards does but she wouldn't be the first to play that game.  Blanche Lincoln is also the right age and a Southerner but seems too conservative to last long in a presidential primary. 

(EDIT: Oops.  Hagan will be 63 in 2016.  It's not disqualifying but I thought she instead would be in her mid-50s, actually, a much easier age to win a nomination.  I'd have listed Robin Carnahan who was born the same day as Obama and will be in her mid 50s, plus has a Latino husband and child.  I'd pick her to end up the keynote in 2012 if she wins her race next year but she seems not so strong a public speaker.)

Culver is placed well if only in that when 2016 rolls around, he'll be a good presidential age of 50 years old and maybe someone who just finished 8 years as governor of Iowa.  If he did so staying popular, there's many worse positions to be in to jump into the Iowa Caucuses.  Winning Iowa doesn't guarantee anything after but if you play your hand, you could turn it into something.


Argue with me if you wish.

I agree with most of this except that, as I said in another thread, I would not be shocked if Rahm Emanuel runs - yeah, CoS isn't a normal springboard to the presidency, but Rahm is an unusually public and powerful CoS and if he stays in the position for awhile or moves into a plum cabinet job in a second Obama term, I could easily see him running.

Also, about the Missouri gals - Robin Carnahan is actually a far better public speaker than Claire McCaskill. I really doubt that McCaskill will run for president ever - she's only a so-so public speaker, she's weak on environmental issues, she has a penchant for small gaffes, and she'll also be fairly old in 2016. Late 60s, I believe.

McCaskill (born in 1953) will be 63 years old in 2016, only a couple years older than Hillary when she ran. Agree about her gaffes, especially the one she made the other day on the Senate floor about concealed guns-forcing gay marriage onto people. That and she's totally been a lapdog for Obama since she endorsed him. She was very anti-Hillary during the primaries, and unless she cleans up her act before 2012, I'm ready to vote for someone else in the primary or even a third-party in 2012.

But hey, as long as we don't have Caribou Barbie in the White House, I'm all fine and dandy with that. Smiley
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JSojourner
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« Reply #11 on: July 27, 2009, 10:51:35 am »

I am fairly confident Sherrod Brown will run for President in 2016, unless he is a "good soldier" and Vice President Biden seeks his day in the sun.

I am not saying Brown would win...the nomination or the Presidency.  But I suspect he will run.  Of course, there is much time between now and then...including time for him to be disfigured in some sort of scandal.

I love the guy's politics.
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Torie
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« Reply #12 on: July 27, 2009, 11:40:54 am »

I am fairly confident Sherrod Brown will run for President in 2016, unless he is a "good soldier" and Vice President Biden seeks his day in the sun.

I am not saying Brown would win...the nomination or the Presidency.  But I suspect he will run.  Of course, there is much time between now and then...including time for him to be disfigured in some sort of scandal.

I love the guy's politics.

How depressing. Sherrod is one of my least favorite people. Sad

Has he remarried?
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« Reply #13 on: July 27, 2009, 11:42:14 am »

One name I forgot is Russ Feingold who will be 63 in 2016.  Feingold would excite the grassroots and despite being a liberal could attract Independents given his own willingness to buck his party.  He also seems like he could have an easier time defining issues and a message than other challengers to the establishment.  And unlike Obama, Feingold could run on change without being vulnerable to charges on inexperience.

I could see myself backing him again, like I did years ago...
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #14 on: July 27, 2009, 12:38:59 pm »

It's worth noting that as late as 2006, Clinton was saying she "had no plans" to run in 2008. 

At the present time, Clinton is very focused on her current job.  But what will her mindset be in 2015?  If the Obama Administration is unpopular and/or her term as Secretary of State is widely regarded as a botch, she will likely stay in the "not running" category.  But if her position and the political environment looks at least somewhat favorable, I think her future is open for debate.
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paul718
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« Reply #15 on: July 27, 2009, 01:49:53 pm »

I am fairly confident Sherrod Brown will run for President in 2016, unless he is a "good soldier" and Vice President Biden seeks his day in the sun.

I am not saying Brown would win...the nomination or the Presidency.  But I suspect he will run.  Of course, there is much time between now and then...including time for him to be disfigured in some sort of scandal.

I love the guy's politics.

Do you think Biden will be even viable as a candidate?  I'd suspect that the heavy-hitters would try to talk him out of it.  I'm actually beginning to expect Obama to replace him in 2012.

As for Sherrod Brown...have you heard rumblings, or is it just a hunch?  One thing I like about him is that he seems to know what he's talking about (whether I agree with him or not), which has sadly become unique in Congress.

The Democratic bench appears to be incredibly deep, but I guess that's how it goes with recently-acquired majorities.
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JSojourner
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« Reply #16 on: July 27, 2009, 09:40:10 pm »

The thing about Brown is just my gut.  I remember when he was elected to the State Legislature eons ago when I was in high school.  There were remarks then, by locals mostly, that this guy had the White House in his sights one day. 

Who knows, though?
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Verily
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« Reply #17 on: July 27, 2009, 10:32:46 pm »
« Edited: July 27, 2009, 10:34:25 pm by Verily »

It's worth noting that as late as 2006, Clinton was saying she "had no plans" to run in 2008. 

At the present time, Clinton is very focused on her current job.  But what will her mindset be in 2015?  If the Obama Administration is unpopular and/or her term as Secretary of State is widely regarded as a botch, she will likely stay in the "not running" category.  But if her position and the political environment looks at least somewhat favorable, I think her future is open for debate.

Clinton is unlikely to even be Secretary of State in 2016. The attrition rate for cabinet members is very high. Only one of Bush's 2001 appointees, Elaine Chao, made through his entire Presidency; just three of Clinton's did. Clinton has a higher public profile than most cabinet members usually do, but I still find it unlikely that she will not have shuffled to another job or left the administration entirely by 2016.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #18 on: July 28, 2009, 12:38:22 am »
« Edited: July 28, 2009, 12:45:28 am by Ogre Mage »

Clinton is unlikely to even be Secretary of State in 2016. The attrition rate for cabinet members is very high. Only one of Bush's 2001 appointees, Elaine Chao, made through his entire Presidency; just three of Clinton's did. Clinton has a higher public profile than most cabinet members usually do, but I still find it unlikely that she will not have shuffled to another job or left the administration entirely by 2016.

True but she couldn't run if she were still for Secretary of State.  She'd have to resign by the end of 2014.  I'd guess she'll only serve one term at State regardless of any political ambitions.

Yes, if Clinton is still Secretary of State in 2016, then that is a sign she has given up all hope for higher office.  A 2-term Secretary of State is not unheard of, however, as George Schultz served as Reagan's Secretary of State for all but the first year of Reagan's Presidency.  More likely, as others have suggested, she will either move to another position or leave the Administration after 2012.  If Obama wins a second term and Clinton stays on as SoS but steps down in late 2014/early 2015, she is likely (re)running for President.  That's why I asked "What will her mindset be in 2015?"
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politicalchick20
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« Reply #19 on: July 28, 2009, 02:38:28 pm »

Although there are some positions he has taken that have worried me, to say the least, and of course, there's always the chance for someone new to come along, I still wouldn't entirely discount Evan Bayh. There would definitely be a portion of the base that would be underwhelmed by this, and he isn't always the most animated speaker, but he has had his moments (I think his speech at last year's DNC was actually about the most animated I've ever seen him), and I think he can still redeem himself in the eyes of some Democrats (there are ones that are much more worrisome, such as Oklahoma Congressman Dan Boren).
I just thought that I'd throw his name out there for the heck of it. (The fact that Bill Clinton was once quoted as saying he hoped to vote for Bayh to be President someday probably wouldn't hurt, either)
And another name that hasn't been mentioned here yet is Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. She would probably have been in a better position had she decided to try for the governor's seat or the Senate, but still, you never know.
Both Bayh and Sandlin, however, would, as one poster said about Hagan from NC, have to do some adjusting for the primaries.
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« Reply #20 on: July 28, 2009, 07:58:20 pm »

Gillibrand 2016 FTW!!!! Cheesy

I think she might be our woman.


Gillibrand would be 50, has the potential to be high profile from New York and has proven she can win in a Republican district (albeit with positions different than she's taken as a Senator).  But she doesn't come across as very smart I have to say.  I don't think I'm prejudiced against blondes as my reaction to listening to Kirsten is that she's no Hillary.

Well, she was way ahead of both Hillary and Paulson on TARP last fall:

"Ms. Gillibrand’s opposition to the bailout bill seemed to be focused on its approach, rather than the idea of helping Wall Street firms. When she first voted against the bill, she made a statement saying that she recognized the need to recapitalize the banks but that, “if the federal government needs to intervene, then [it] should receive a fair equity stake in the company in order to protect the taxpayer.”

At the time of the votes, the bill was generally held up as a means to buy troubled assets from banks. That plan was later scrapped by the Treasury secretary at the time, Henry M. Paulson Jr., in favor of direct equity investments — which seem to be more along the lines of what Ms. Gillibrand had advocated."
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #21 on: July 30, 2009, 03:26:01 am »

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http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2009/07/29/2009-07-29_hillary_camp_is_election_ready.html
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Chris B
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« Reply #22 on: August 16, 2009, 10:35:20 pm »

Although there are some positions he has taken that have worried me, to say the least, and of course, there's always the chance for someone new to come along, I still wouldn't entirely discount Evan Bayh. There would definitely be a portion of the base that would be underwhelmed by this, and he isn't always the most animated speaker, but he has had his moments (I think his speech at last year's DNC was actually about the most animated I've ever seen him), and I think he can still redeem himself in the eyes of some Democrats (there are ones that are much more worrisome, such as Oklahoma Congressman Dan Boren).
I just thought that I'd throw his name out there for the heck of it. (The fact that Bill Clinton was once quoted as saying he hoped to vote for Bayh to be President someday probably wouldn't hurt, either

I don't think I would rule out Bayh either. If only because a scenario where Hillary decides to sit 2016 out and her and Bill deciding to throw their support behind Bayh doesn't seem that far fetched to me. Plus, there's the fact that he could be someone the conservative and moderate Democrats could rally around. I mean, up until recently, I've thought that Obama not picking him to be VP hurt his presidential ambitions. But I'm not so sure about that anymore.   
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Alexander Hamilton
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« Reply #23 on: August 16, 2009, 11:10:02 pm »

This is hardly a shermanesque denial, but probably worth mentioning:

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE56P1T120090726

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...Warner 2016! then?

Biden will be 73, and if he runs the nomination is probably his unless he's clearly senile.

I think it's doubtful that he'll run personally. I see 2016 being another "open" primary on both sides, like '08.

No, Romney will run for a second term. Do you honestly think Huckabee or Palin would try and run a primary against him?
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« Reply #24 on: August 17, 2009, 04:16:53 am »

Absolutely not surprising. US are not France, where a candidate runs four times before being elected ! Cheesy
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