Hmm...
I reserve the right to answer this question, since I live in the neighbooring county, and go to Terre Haute all the time...
It depends. They have a Republican mayor (by 100 votes, in a crazy, lawsuit-filled election) but a Democrat city council. It's a college town, but a lot of it's students are probably more conservative, since many come from rural areas.
Obama made 2 trips to Terre Haute, McCain made none. If he would have made 2 trips to Vigo county, it would have been closer. And since I think the 2012 election WILL be closer than the 2008 election, and a close Republican primary could get the candidates campaigning in Indiana, as well as the fact Indiana will be a swing state, the Republican nominee will probably make a couple stops. And if he does spend time in Vigo County, (s)he will be rewarded with winning the county. I think Romney would be the most likely of the frontrunners of winning Vigo.
It comes down to how often each candidate visits Vigo County.Over time, Obama probably will become less appealing to young voters. And as that happens, college towns will obviously shift Republican.
I think,
Vigo County will narrowly vote for Obama in 2012, probably 50-48. Will it lose it's bellweather status? I don't know.
