2040 electoral map

[Skill and Chance]

My prediction:

So your 2040 GOP is a white SoCon/urban minority coalition and your 2040 Dems are a wealthy suburbs/rural poor alliance that is evidently winning Native Americans unanimously to explain OK and AZ?  That's actually quite plausible if urban areas are doing well enough economically.

[Skill and Chance]

My prediction:

So your 2040 GOP is a white SoCon/urban minority coalition and your 2040 Dems are a wealthy suburbs/rural poor alliance that is evidently winning Native Americans unanimously to explain OK and AZ?  That's actually quite plausible if urban areas are doing well enough economically.

I don't think there are a lot of white SoCons and urban minorities in Vermont. I'd be interested in hearing the reasoning behind this map, assuming it wasn't just choosing colors randomly.

How could I forget? Following the 35 ft storm surge and 180 mph sustained winds during Hurricane Scott in 2029, most of the New Orleans metro area and parts of Acadiana were abandoned.  An organized mass migration to Vermont followed.  By 2035, an outright majority of Vermonters reported being born in Louisiana and the following year, they threw out the Democratic government that had ruled continuously since 2010, electing Cajun and Creole Republicans to all statewide offices and flipping both houses of the state legislature.  The triumphant 2037 Mardi Gras parade proceeded through a 3 foot snowstorm in Burlington.

[Skill and Chance]

In a neutral race, and if nationalism continues to be a defining force on the right and globalism on the left.

This is roughly where I think things are going as well.  but did you mean to have Texas and Georgia in the "likely" shading while Virginia and Colorado are only in the "lean" shading?  That would really surprise me.

[Skill and Chance]

I think by 2040, California and New York might be at least on the leaning scale and no longer safe

Agreed on New York.  I don't know what you're seeing in California?  Would take either a major realignment of the Hispanic vote (which would also take Texas, Arizona, etc. back to where they were in 2004) or massive backlash from the next generation in the Bay Area.  Neither is impossible.  Post-Trump, the second scenario seems more likely IMO.