2040 electoral map

[Technocracy Timmy]

Taking the 538 numbers, adjusting roughly for 2040 demographics, and making non college whites 100% R while college whites are 87% D gave me this:

90% = 20.1+
70% = 15.1-20
50% = 10.1-15
30% = 5.1-10
Tossup = within 5 points

Don’t know why it’s giving SC as a 53-46% D win while NC is 51.7-47% D but there ya go.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Taking the 538 numbers, adjusting roughly for 2040 demographics, and making non college whites 100% R while college whites are 87% D gave me this:

-snip-

90% = 20.1+
70% = 15.1-20
50% = 10.1-15
30% = 5.1-10
Tossup = within 5 points

Don’t know why it’s giving SC as a 53-46% D win while NC is 51.7-47% D but there ya go.

Assuming all demographic trends do continue, and it's impossible to say that the parties will continue winning groups at the rate they do, isn't' it interesting that we more or less revert back to the pre-Southern Strategy map by 2040?

Yeah it looks like minorities + college whites + the declining share of white non college grads (who are already 80-90% R in the south) caused the southern shift.

Granted some of this is because the 538 calculator is set to the 2012 default baselines.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I think by 2040, California and New York might be at least on the leaning scale and no longer safe

Agreed on New York.  I don't know what you're seeing in California?  Would take either a major realignment of the Hispanic vote (which would also take Texas, Arizona, etc. back to where they were in 2004) or massive backlash from the next generation in the Bay Area.  Neither is impossible.  Post-Trump, the second scenario seems more likely IMO.

Yeah California is 37% nonhispanic white compared to New York which is still 55%.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Fun fact: if you took 1984's trend map and partisanship (ie 44 years ago) and extrapolated it to today, this is what the election would look like roughly:

In some aspects it's not too bad but in others it's terrible lol

And if we extrapolate 2016 trends to 2040, we probably won't be any more accurate than this, LOL.

Not for one cycle, no. But we do know for a fact that certain groups like college educated whites have been trending D ever since at least the late 80’s as non-college whites have been trending R since the mid-90’s or so.

I doubt that dynamic will change too much.