Taking the 538 numbers, adjusting roughly for 2040 demographics, and making non college whites 100% R while college whites are 87% D gave me this:
90% = 20.1+
70% = 15.1-20
50% = 10.1-15
30% = 5.1-10
Tossup = within 5 points
Don’t know why it’s giving SC as a 53-46% D win while NC is 51.7-47% D but there ya go.
Assuming all demographic trends do continue, and it's impossible to say that the parties will continue winning groups at the rate they do, isn't' it interesting that we more or less revert back to the pre-Southern Strategy map by 2040?
