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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  2040 electoral map
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Author Topic: 2040 electoral map  (Read 45188 times)
JerryBrown2010
KyleGordon2016
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« Reply #25 on: July 13, 2009, 07:14:27 pm »

Oh what the heck. Here is a map:



I still have no idea what will happen, this was just a map a made for the fun of making a map.

It would be nice if you tried to do a serious and intelligent map one time...

I think I'm right about WV and AZ.

WV has been trending republican for two decades, and is now almost unwinnable for dems.

I'm sure Hillary would have won WV.
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pogo stick
JewishConservative
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« Reply #26 on: July 13, 2009, 09:17:21 pm »

Oh what the heck. Here is a map:



I still have no idea what will happen, this was just a map a made for the fun of making a map.

It would be nice if you tried to do a serious and intelligent map one time...

I think I'm right about WV and AZ.

WV has been trending republican for two decades, and is now almost unwinnable for dems.

I'm sure Hillary would have won WV.

Agreed
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Alexander Hamilton
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« Reply #27 on: July 13, 2009, 09:25:21 pm »

Oh what the heck. Here is a map:



I still have no idea what will happen, this was just a map a made for the fun of making a map.

It would be nice if you tried to do a serious and intelligent map one time...

I think I'm right about WV and AZ.

WV has been trending republican for two decades, and is now almost unwinnable for dems.

I'm sure Hillary would have won WV.

Agreed

She could compete in WV and AR, but I doubt she wins. Results probably like McCain did in NH.
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NE Assembyman electoraljew2
electoraljew2
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« Reply #28 on: July 13, 2009, 09:53:19 pm »

Ok, ok...
So, just hope that when you will introduce a law to ban again abortion, New Yorkers will not notice that.

Who said I'm going to last more then one term?

You're right : having you as Senator for six years, that's enough !

I'm mean as Governor. I'm not gonna run for senator.

I'm hoping for this to happen :


5-6 terms in U.S House
1-2 terms as Governor
Then become a talk show host

I'm hoping for 3 terms senator then run for president and unfortunately probably fail.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #29 on: July 13, 2009, 10:10:41 pm »

Excellent thread, as I will be a candidate in 2040...
My thoughts of a map, under a close scenario...


I would love to run for President with this Civil War style Presidential map. It looks like the map from the 1920's. The Southwest would seem GOP in that era but it was more of swing region with a Slight Dem lean in NV(Silver issues) AZ and NM(Rebs settled here), and Utah(Mormons use to love Dems) and Colorado was a Republican State, the lone exception from the Southwest.



The thought of some of you guys running for Prez in 2040 scares the hell out of me. At least I plan to wait till 2052. Become the Ike of 100 years hence minus the military background, hell I would pratically be the same age, he was born in 1890 and I was born in 1991. Call that coincidence, or what.
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #30 on: July 14, 2009, 06:14:03 am »

I'd like so much to have at least one serious map... Sad
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liberalkid
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« Reply #31 on: July 14, 2009, 11:39:33 am »

i hate to be rude, but i'm waiting for a serious map, not people either making stuff up or fantasising about becoming governor of a state that would laugh so hard at his canididacy.... they might forget to vote.
crap
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pogo stick
JewishConservative
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« Reply #32 on: July 14, 2009, 11:46:03 am »

Here's my dream map




My dream map is mainly a Republican Dominance in the south and north east and a weaker GOP presence in the west.

With Ohio, New Jersey, Montana, Arkansas, and Illinois bieng toss ups
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izixs
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« Reply #33 on: July 14, 2009, 04:34:05 pm »
« Edited: July 14, 2009, 04:56:38 pm by izixs »



So there was a mention of a strong 3rd party for that year.

The idea behind this map is that the Democrats solidify their support with minority groups (African Americans, Latinos, ect) as well as most left leaning folks. The republican party gets pulled further right and in the end, moderate republicans split off to form a sort of moderate conservative/libertarian leaning party shown here in grey that's more competitive outside the ideologically pure and shrinking base of the old republican party. The new moderate party is helped by the leftward march of the democrats over the years and ends up picking up most moderate and conservatives outside the south. Third partys have never done well in the south unless they were based there, but still, the combination of this new party and demographics shifts, pushes the region to be more competitive overall between the dems and repubs.

A couple things that people might try to call me out for:
Mississippi-3rd party influence and the fact that the youth vote here is very democratic leaning today could easily put it in the dem column by 2040.
Texas-Growing latino population but maturation of the cities could do this.
Connecticut/Rhode Island-The new moderate party ends up filling the void that moderate republicans once filled, and opts to take a big anti-corruption stand (and has credibility on the issues) to help grab these two.
New Hampshire-So the moderates get CT and RI, why not NH? Easy, by 2040, NH will be about where Rhode Island is today in being effectively a bedroom state for Boston. Add in the seepage of liberalism from Vermont and you got a solid dem state.
Utah-I gave it to the new party mostly because the republicans having not done anything for the mormons of the state in a while and thus they jumped at a chance to try a different alternative to the democrats. To be honest I don't know enough about Utah to really pin it down well.
Montana-I have this weird feeling that Montana might turn into another Vermont situation. Once solidly conservative, but because it was far enough out of the way and had the space, gets invaded by dems whom eventually saturate the politics. Probably moved from California. Folks wanting something a little less arid then NV, AZ, or UT, and not as urban as Colorado will likely be by that point.

Hope people like it!
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #34 on: July 14, 2009, 04:50:56 pm »

I don't understand how a 14-year-old is writing a book Huh
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izixs
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« Reply #35 on: July 14, 2009, 04:57:53 pm »

I m'self was writing quite regularly when I was that age. I can't say it was good stuff, but with time and practice someone that age can very much write a great book. Convincing someone to publish it on the other hand is a pain.
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zclark1994
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« Reply #36 on: July 14, 2009, 05:17:53 pm »

To be honest I would pick a different subject to write a book on if I were you.  Just because in todays political landscape certain groups of people are affiliated mostly with one party does not mean that that will always be the case.  And you also can't really predict the circumstances of an election that is still over 30 years out.  Imagine everything that could happen in the next 30 years to change america/the world.  Most likely though, The repubs will began to become slightly more moderate over the next several years and once again become the majority in congress.  They might even be able to pull off an upset if obama has low approval ratings near election time.  If obama is doing good then he will probably be re-elected.  After the crazy spending so far in 2009, and most likely going into 2010, I don't think that the democrats will have such a large lead in congress, if they haven't already been booted from the majority position.  When we do get a republican president, he will probably have a democratic congress as the american people like divided government.  The political wheel will keep spinning.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #37 on: July 14, 2009, 05:34:23 pm »

Would it have made sense for someone in 1968 to postualte on Obama winning in 2008... No. However, I will say, broadly, that the growth in the Southwest will taper off as resources become scarcer... Water will force people to return to the great lakes area since it will be cheaper to live there. Similarly, for the parties, if the Republicans continue to pander to only the narrowest slice of white voters, they will fade as a party and exist only in the upper south. However, that is extremely unlikely. A more moderate party, based on the UK conservatives or CDU/CSU would be competitive all over, especially in places like New England where they are now a 40% party in a good year. So, this is all really a thought experiment, since we dont know what issues, leaders, or demographics will look like in 40 years... I mean, would Bobby Kennedy or Richard Nixon really be able to discuss issues like Al Qaeda, Green Energy or Net Neutrality... likewise, Would Palin or Obama have much to say about party platforms on nanotechnology, the Mars colony, or pre-crime? No folks, thats why we have President Helga Von Cassini-Martinez.
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liberalkid
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« Reply #38 on: July 16, 2009, 11:31:51 am »

while i see your point, the objective was an intelectual excersize where the most politically-minded of my friends would run in an election
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JerryBrown2010
KyleGordon2016
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« Reply #39 on: July 18, 2009, 08:06:35 pm »
« Edited: July 19, 2009, 09:47:45 pm by KyleGordon »

Me vs Tmthforu94

I have a good campaign, Tmthforu94 does horrible.





Realistic




Swing (with %)




Trend (without %)

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tmthforu94
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« Reply #40 on: July 18, 2009, 08:34:16 pm »

Haha! Nice, although I don't think Utah or Idaho would trend towards you...

Realistically:


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JerryBrown2010
KyleGordon2016
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« Reply #41 on: July 18, 2009, 08:38:54 pm »
« Edited: July 18, 2009, 08:47:32 pm by KyleGordon »

I only made that because I made up a previous election



 Idaho and Utah in this election were the most republican states so it had no choice but to trend to me because it could only swing so much to you.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #42 on: July 18, 2009, 09:34:18 pm »

1968:



In 1968, white middle-class and upper class women voted strongly Republican.

1928:



In 1928, Republicans dominated the black vote.

1888:



In 1888, the big issue was the Gold vs Silver standard.

My point being, and I have made this point, many, many, many times... you can predict demographics, you can predict social trends (to an extent), but you can never predict exactly how that will impact the political scene.
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pogo stick
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« Reply #43 on: July 18, 2009, 09:59:19 pm »

Here's a likely possibility :

In 2013 Illegal aliens are deported, Arizona, Texas and other border states  stop trending to the left.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


2040 Map Sad



Green are toss ups
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12th Doctor
supersoulty
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« Reply #44 on: July 18, 2009, 10:06:28 pm »

Here's a likely possibility :

In 2013 Illegal aliens are deported, Arizona, Texas and other border states  stop trending to the left.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


2040 Map Sad



Green are toss ups

And the country undergoes massive economic collapse, as the boomers age with an ever decreasing working population to pay for them.  The elections of the 2020's will likely be absolutely dominated by this issue.
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Sewer
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« Reply #45 on: July 18, 2009, 10:41:55 pm »

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JerryBrown2010
KyleGordon2016
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« Reply #46 on: July 18, 2009, 10:56:35 pm »

Me in 2040:




Democrats capture south while republicans gain In the north

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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #47 on: July 18, 2009, 11:07:51 pm »
« Edited: July 18, 2009, 11:17:45 pm by Senator North Carolina Yankee »

Here's a likely possibility :

In 2013 Illegal aliens are deported, Arizona, Texas and other border states  stop trending to the left.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


2040 Map Sad



Green are toss ups

And the country undergoes massive economic collapse, as the boomers age with an ever decreasing working population to pay for them.  The elections of the 2020's will likely be absolutely dominated by this issue.

But in 2017 with Republicans in complete control of everything after Obama's dismal second term, Paul Ryan's road map for America's Future is adopted with slight modifications, making Social Security and Medicaid permently solvent as well as simply the tax code. The elections of 2020's serve as a refrendum on the huge success of this program. Large waves of legal highly skilled immigrants come to the country and propell America into an economic boom. Republicans win landslides in 2020 and 2024. The Dems seize the White House due to voter fatique in 2028 but lose after one term in 2032. The Republican gets reelected in 2036. Mild recessions occur in 2023 and and 2031-2032. A stock market crash occurs in 2027 but its similar to 1987 in that it has little impact on the booming economy.  The 2040 election is close but the winner however gets to deal with a severe Recession approaching levels similar to the current one.
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #48 on: July 18, 2009, 11:16:58 pm »

What's with red Louisiana?
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pogo stick
JewishConservative
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« Reply #49 on: July 18, 2009, 11:21:58 pm »


I have a feeling Alaska and Louisiana are red states going  blue. ( Blue states going red on Atlas)
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