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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: VirginiŠ)
  2040 electoral map
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Author Topic: 2040 electoral map  (Read 45189 times)
P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong
razze
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« Reply #125 on: March 09, 2017, 10:43:33 pm »


Red states are solid or lean Dem, same for Blue and Rep, gray are tossups.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #126 on: March 11, 2017, 04:10:00 am »

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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #127 on: December 16, 2018, 03:28:43 pm »

Taking the 538 numbers, adjusting roughly for 2040 demographics, and making non college whites 100% R while college whites are 87% D gave me this:



90% = 20.1+
70% = 15.1-20
50% = 10.1-15
30% = 5.1-10
Tossup = within 5 points

Donít know why itís giving SC as a 53-46% D win while NC is 51.7-47% D but there ya go.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #128 on: December 16, 2018, 05:01:02 pm »

Taking the 538 numbers, adjusting roughly for 2040 demographics, and making non college whites 100% R while college whites are 87% D gave me this:



90% = 20.1+
70% = 15.1-20
50% = 10.1-15
30% = 5.1-10
Tossup = within 5 points

Donít know why itís giving SC as a 53-46% D win while NC is 51.7-47% D but there ya go.

Assuming all demographic trends do continue, and it's impossible to say that the parties will continue winning groups at the rate they do, isn't' it interesting that we more or less revert back to the pre-Southern Strategy map by 2040?
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #129 on: December 16, 2018, 05:05:46 pm »

Taking the 538 numbers, adjusting roughly for 2040 demographics, and making non college whites 100% R while college whites are 87% D gave me this:

-snip-

90% = 20.1+
70% = 15.1-20
50% = 10.1-15
30% = 5.1-10
Tossup = within 5 points

Donít know why itís giving SC as a 53-46% D win while NC is 51.7-47% D but there ya go.

Assuming all demographic trends do continue, and it's impossible to say that the parties will continue winning groups at the rate they do, isn't' it interesting that we more or less revert back to the pre-Southern Strategy map by 2040?

Yeah it looks like minorities + college whites + the declining share of white non college grads (who are already 80-90% R in the south) caused the southern shift.

Granted some of this is because the 538 calculator is set to the 2012 default baselines.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #130 on: December 16, 2018, 06:27:13 pm »

I think by 2040, California and New York might be at least on the leaning scale and no longer safe
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #131 on: December 16, 2018, 07:52:04 pm »

I think by 2040, California and New York might be at least on the leaning scale and no longer safe

Agreed on New York.  I don't know what you're seeing in California?  Would take either a major realignment of the Hispanic vote (which would also take Texas, Arizona, etc. back to where they were in 2004) or massive backlash from the next generation in the Bay Area.  Neither is impossible.  Post-Trump, the second scenario seems more likely IMO.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #132 on: December 17, 2018, 01:32:31 am »

I think by 2040, California and New York might be at least on the leaning scale and no longer safe

Agreed on New York.  I don't know what you're seeing in California?  Would take either a major realignment of the Hispanic vote (which would also take Texas, Arizona, etc. back to where they were in 2004) or massive backlash from the next generation in the Bay Area.  Neither is impossible.  Post-Trump, the second scenario seems more likely IMO.

Yeah California is 37% nonhispanic white compared to New York which is still 55%.
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #133 on: December 17, 2018, 08:45:49 am »

Fun fact: if you took 1984's trend map and partisanship (ie 44 years ago) and extrapolated it to today, this is what the election would look like roughly:



In some aspects it's not too bad but in others it's terrible lol
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Anarcho-Statism
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« Reply #134 on: December 18, 2018, 11:55:58 am »

I think California might be swingy in a few decades if the population continues to decline and the GOP makes inroads with the anti-globalist unemployed. The map might resemble the pre-Southern Strategy one starting around that time. I predict a "New South" being the most liberal part of the union, while the Democrats will more permanently lose some of the northern states.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #135 on: December 18, 2018, 12:08:36 pm »

Fun fact: if you took 1984's trend map and partisanship (ie 44 years ago) and extrapolated it to today, this is what the election would look like roughly:



In some aspects it's not too bad but in others it's terrible lol

And if we extrapolate 2016 trends to 2040, we probably won't be any more accurate than this, LOL.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #136 on: December 18, 2018, 12:21:48 pm »

Fun fact: if you took 1984's trend map and partisanship (ie 44 years ago) and extrapolated it to today, this is what the election would look like roughly:



In some aspects it's not too bad but in others it's terrible lol

And if we extrapolate 2016 trends to 2040, we probably won't be any more accurate than this, LOL.

Not for one cycle, no. But we do know for a fact that certain groups like college educated whites have been trending D ever since at least the late 80ís as non-college whites have been trending R since the mid-90ís or so.

I doubt that dynamic will change too much.
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