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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  2040 electoral map
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Author Topic: 2040 electoral map  (Read 45150 times)
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #100 on: January 23, 2017, 10:19:03 pm »

What do you guys think of this map? Actually I think it is quite plausible:



Not bad, actually... maybe DE, RI, and MS will happen...but probably not.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #101 on: January 24, 2017, 02:09:09 pm »



I used FiveThirtyEight's demographic calculator to determine what would happen if all blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and college educated whites voted Democratic while all non-college educated whites voted Republican. This is the result.

Seems completely accurate, to be honest.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #102 on: January 24, 2017, 02:53:35 pm »



I used FiveThirtyEight's demographic calculator to determine what would happen if all blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and college educated whites voted Democratic while all non-college educated whites voted Republican. This is the result.

Seems completely accurate, to be honest.

All those groups are in the party that they, ya know, actually voted for last election except for one: college educated Whites.  They literally stayed loyal to Republicans in the most likely matchup for them to possibly flip, and now they're considered a part of the future Democratic base, LOL.  Give it up, Atlas.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #103 on: January 24, 2017, 04:13:33 pm »

I used FiveThirtyEight's demographic calculator to determine what would happen if all blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and college educated whites voted Democratic while all non-college educated whites voted Republican. This is the result.

Seems completely accurate, to be honest.

All those groups are in the party that they, ya know, actually voted for last election except for one: college educated Whites.  They literally stayed loyal to Republicans in the most likely matchup for them to possibly flip, and now they're considered a part of the future Democratic base, LOL.  Give it up, Atlas.

I found Non-Swing Voter's incessant harping on this to be annoying as well, but I don't know why it offends you so much. You should check out NYT Upshot's voter analysis based on Census Bureau data and additional polling. Exit polls seem to underestimate Democratic support from college-educated whites:

Quote
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Those swings are hard to ignore.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #104 on: January 24, 2017, 05:50:48 pm »
« Edited: January 24, 2017, 05:54:10 pm by Del Tachi »

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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #105 on: January 24, 2017, 07:27:46 pm »


219: Senator Elise Stefanik(R-NY)/Governor Chrys Kefalas(R-MD)
219: Governor Matt Delligatti(D-WV)/Fmr. Speaker Stephanie Murphy(D-FL)
100: Tossup
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Lok
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« Reply #106 on: January 24, 2017, 08:10:55 pm »


219: Senator Elise Stefanik(R-NY)/Governor Chrys Kefalas(R-MD)
219: Governor Matt Delligatti(D-WV)/Fmr. Speaker Stephanie Murphy(D-FL)
100: Tossup
Is this for real?!
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #107 on: January 24, 2017, 10:20:29 pm »

I did this map sometimes ago, representing the Electoral College structure in the 2030-2040 years. The shades doesn't indicate percentages, but the closeness of the state ( light=leaning, average=solid, dark=safe ). This map is in a situation of toss-up election, so you should correct it if you plan to make it a democratic or republican victory.



Ugh yeah, I feel pretty embarrassed. Tongue At the very least, Arizona and Michigan should be reversed.

...and 2 years later, Michigan actually goes to the GOP while AZ becomes a swing State.

Let this be a lesson. Never. Make. Predictions.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #108 on: January 25, 2017, 01:49:23 am »


219: Senator Elise Stefanik(R-NY)/Governor Chrys Kefalas(R-MD)
219: Governor Matt Delligatti(D-WV)/Fmr. Speaker Stephanie Murphy(D-FL)
100: Tossup
Is this for real?!

I wanted to use an actual Rep. for Speaker and NY R Senator, and the rest kind of naturally fell into place for me.
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jimmie
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« Reply #109 on: January 25, 2017, 04:50:49 am »

hahahahahahahahahahahahah
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #110 on: January 25, 2017, 07:27:27 am »


I think he knows something we don't and we are all way wrong...but he'll never tell. Smiley
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twenty42
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« Reply #111 on: January 27, 2017, 07:16:13 am »

To put this in perspective, the 2016 map would have looked quite ridiculous in 1992. VA being a likely D state and WV being one of the most R states in the union would have seemed totally unimaginable 24 years ago. It would have sounded batcrap insane to suggest in 1968 that VT would be a D state in 24 years.

There will likely be a few eventualities in 2040 that we'd never guess today.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #112 on: January 27, 2017, 10:15:43 am »

I used FiveThirtyEight's demographic calculator to determine what would happen if all blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and college educated whites voted Democratic while all non-college educated whites voted Republican. This is the result.

Seems completely accurate, to be honest.

All those groups are in the party that they, ya know, actually voted for last election except for one: college educated Whites.  They literally stayed loyal to Republicans in the most likely matchup for them to possibly flip, and now they're considered a part of the future Democratic base, LOL.  Give it up, Atlas.

I found Non-Swing Voter's incessant harping on this to be annoying as well, but I don't know why it offends you so much. You should check out NYT Upshot's voter analysis based on Census Bureau data and additional polling. Exit polls seem to underestimate Democratic support from college-educated whites:

Quote
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Those swings are hard to ignore.

Because for my entire life (and for their party's entire history), Democrats have incessantly harped on their moral superiority - Republicans were the party of the rich, Republicans were the party of racism, Republicans were the party of killing the environment, Republicans were the party that would send your kid to die in a war for their own gain, etc .... I usually roll my eyes at this, but the development I see now - among a very small group of liberals, to be sure - is a ploy to simply gain *all* superiority over their opposition.  They're not just going to be these FFs who protect the modern world from the evils of conservatism, they're simply better (wealthier, smarter, more educated, more worldly, etc.), and bragging about the latter is directly contradictory to the former.  The hypocrisy of being smug about both - and I have no faith that these liberals I've mentioned would be fine with dropping either talking point - is infuriatingly stupid.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #113 on: January 27, 2017, 12:57:50 pm »

I used FiveThirtyEight's demographic calculator to determine what would happen if all blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and college educated whites voted Democratic while all non-college educated whites voted Republican. This is the result.

Seems completely accurate, to be honest.

All those groups are in the party that they, ya know, actually voted for last election except for one: college educated Whites.  They literally stayed loyal to Republicans in the most likely matchup for them to possibly flip, and now they're considered a part of the future Democratic base, LOL.  Give it up, Atlas.

I found Non-Swing Voter's incessant harping on this to be annoying as well, but I don't know why it offends you so much. You should check out NYT Upshot's voter analysis based on Census Bureau data and additional polling. Exit polls seem to underestimate Democratic support from college-educated whites:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.





Those swings are hard to ignore.

Because for my entire life (and for their party's entire history), Democrats have incessantly harped on their moral superiority - Republicans were the party of the rich, Republicans were the party of racism, Republicans were the party of killing the environment, Republicans were the party that would send your kid to die in a war for their own gain, etc .... I usually roll my eyes at this, but the development I see now - among a very small group of liberals, to be sure - is a ploy to simply gain *all* superiority over their opposition.  They're not just going to be these FFs who protect the modern world from the evils of conservatism, they're simply better (wealthier, smarter, more educated, more worldly, etc.), and bragging about the latter is directly contradictory to the former.  The hypocrisy of being smug about both - and I have no faith that these liberals I've mentioned would be fine with dropping either talking point - is infuriatingly stupid.
At least we haven't claimed to be more fu ckable than the opposition.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #114 on: January 27, 2017, 03:03:09 pm »

I used FiveThirtyEight's demographic calculator to determine what would happen if all blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and college educated whites voted Democratic while all non-college educated whites voted Republican. This is the result.

Seems completely accurate, to be honest.

All those groups are in the party that they, ya know, actually voted for last election except for one: college educated Whites.  They literally stayed loyal to Republicans in the most likely matchup for them to possibly flip, and now they're considered a part of the future Democratic base, LOL.  Give it up, Atlas.

I found Non-Swing Voter's incessant harping on this to be annoying as well, but I don't know why it offends you so much. You should check out NYT Upshot's voter analysis based on Census Bureau data and additional polling. Exit polls seem to underestimate Democratic support from college-educated whites:

Quote
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Those swings are hard to ignore.

Because for my entire life (and for their party's entire history), Democrats have incessantly harped on their moral superiority - Republicans were the party of the rich, Republicans were the party of racism, Republicans were the party of killing the environment, Republicans were the party that would send your kid to die in a war for their own gain, etc .... I usually roll my eyes at this, but the development I see now - among a very small group of liberals, to be sure - is a ploy to simply gain *all* superiority over their opposition.  They're not just going to be these FFs who protect the modern world from the evils of conservatism, they're simply better (wealthier, smarter, more educated, more worldly, etc.), and bragging about the latter is directly contradictory to the former.  The hypocrisy of being smug about both - and I have no faith that these liberals I've mentioned would be fine with dropping either talking point - is infuriatingly stupid.
At least we haven't claimed to be more fu ckable than the opposition.

Ya know, friend, I made a very distinct effort to not lump all liberals together.  I was very clear that it's a minority of liberals who are acting in this deplorable manner, and I didn't project it onto every Democrat, so kindly extend me the same favor.  I have never claimed conservatives were more "fu ckable" than liberals.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #115 on: January 28, 2017, 01:46:42 pm »

I used FiveThirtyEight's demographic calculator to determine what would happen if all blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and college educated whites voted Democratic while all non-college educated whites voted Republican. This is the result.

Seems completely accurate, to be honest.

All those groups are in the party that they, ya know, actually voted for last election except for one: college educated Whites.  They literally stayed loyal to Republicans in the most likely matchup for them to possibly flip, and now they're considered a part of the future Democratic base, LOL.  Give it up, Atlas.

I found Non-Swing Voter's incessant harping on this to be annoying as well, but I don't know why it offends you so much. You should check out NYT Upshot's voter analysis based on Census Bureau data and additional polling. Exit polls seem to underestimate Democratic support from college-educated whites:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.





Those swings are hard to ignore.

Because for my entire life (and for their party's entire history), Democrats have incessantly harped on their moral superiority - Republicans were the party of the rich, Republicans were the party of racism, Republicans were the party of killing the environment, Republicans were the party that would send your kid to die in a war for their own gain, etc .... I usually roll my eyes at this, but the development I see now - among a very small group of liberals, to be sure - is a ploy to simply gain *all* superiority over their opposition.  They're not just going to be these FFs who protect the modern world from the evils of conservatism, they're simply better (wealthier, smarter, more educated, more worldly, etc.), and bragging about the latter is directly contradictory to the former.  The hypocrisy of being smug about both - and I have no faith that these liberals I've mentioned would be fine with dropping either talking point - is infuriatingly stupid.
At least we haven't claimed to be more fu ckable than the opposition.

Ya know, friend, I made a very distinct effort to not lump all liberals together.  I was very clear that it's a minority of liberals who are acting in this deplorable manner, and I didn't project it onto every Democrat, so kindly extend me the same favor.  I have never claimed conservatives were more "fu ckable" than liberals.

But there was a whole thread about it! It was fun!
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JoshPA
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« Reply #116 on: January 31, 2017, 06:28:13 pm »

Excellent thread, as I will be a candidate in 2040...
My thoughts of a map, under a close scenario...

how did the south being democrat and California republican?
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #117 on: January 31, 2017, 06:39:11 pm »

Excellent thread, as I will be a candidate in 2040...
My thoughts of a map, under a close scenario...

how did the south being democrat and California republican?
Abortion.
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Mayflower1978
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« Reply #118 on: February 01, 2017, 10:03:49 pm »

There's Chance that South would become Democratic again for next 15-20 Years, while Midwest especially Rust Belt States is getting Republican for 5-10 Years.

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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #119 on: February 13, 2017, 12:01:56 am »

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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #120 on: February 13, 2017, 10:50:46 am »



In a neutral race, and if nationalism continues to be a defining force on the right and globalism on the left.

Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine, NE-2, and Minnesota are the new purple states.
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tomhguy
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« Reply #121 on: March 05, 2017, 03:50:32 pm »

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Lok
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« Reply #122 on: March 05, 2017, 04:11:31 pm »

I don't think that MD will be flipping by then
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Admiral Florida Man
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« Reply #123 on: March 05, 2017, 11:54:14 pm »


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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #124 on: March 06, 2017, 12:31:12 am »



In a neutral race, and if nationalism continues to be a defining force on the right and globalism on the left.

This is roughly where I think things are going as well.  but did you mean to have Texas and Georgia in the "likely" shading while Virginia and Colorado are only in the "lean" shading?  That would really surprise me.
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