Could Walt Minnick survive past the 2010 elections?

[War on Want]

Right now, at 67.2%, Minnick has the lowest party unity score of any member of either party in the House - and by time his re-election comes around, I suspect it will be lower still

It'll be funny to see him lose anyway. He's trying to be Sali-lite.

Do you forget what a wingnut Sali was (is)? Voting with the congressional dems 6.7% of the time would qualify as Sali-lite, not 67% of the time. This is Idaho for frick's sake! That is by FAR the best one can hope for. I'm actually surprised Minnick's party unity voting score isn't significantly lower.

Besides, Sali was borderline nuts; Minnick's exhibited none of this tendency.

Sad to know he's still endangered, to put it nicely. Best Dems can hope for is Sali attempts a comeback and wins the primary. Any word up there on whether he's inclined to give it another try?

Last I knew he was just "considering it". Even he can still win it but he would have a hard time in a district the GOP would prefer to put away for keeps. 

The fundies have a very weak grip on this district. I expect Sali to win the primary.

But aren't the fundies Sali's base?

Yes, he will win because the fundies have a majority here.

[Lunar]

Bill Sali could run again

He could win quite easily too.

agreed.  My point was just that Sali is a critical component to Minnick's "could"

[HAnnA MArin County]

I'd rather have Sali-lite as my congressman, than Sali any day of the week. I don't think you understand how it is like living in Idaho.

That may be, but I'm not shedding any tears when this guy gets thrown out on his ass.

You have the ability to do so, meanwhile I will have to deal with Sali or some other clown the GOP here nominates.

Karma, I feel your pain. I've never been to or lived in Idaho, but I imagine it's a pretty scary state to live in. You've mentioned the fundies in some of your other posts - are there lots of Bible thumpers up there? I haven't done much research on the state, but I've heard there are lots of Mormons up there. I guess that's a big reason why the state is so red, but what else makes your state one of the most conservative in the nation? White supremacists, uneducated folks, gun-touting hunters, etc.? (Asking sincerely, not to be condescending). The politics of Idaho has always fascinated me.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I'd rather have Sali-lite as my congressman, than Sali any day of the week. I don't think you understand how it is like living in Idaho.

That may be, but I'm not shedding any tears when this guy gets thrown out on his ass.

You have the ability to do so, meanwhile I will have to deal with Sali or some other clown the GOP here nominates.

Karma, I feel your pain. I've never been to or lived in Idaho, but I imagine it's a pretty scary state to live in. You've mentioned the fundies in some of your other posts - are there lots of Bible thumpers up there? I haven't done much research on the state, but I've heard there are lots of Mormons up there. I guess that's a big reason why the state is so red, but what else makes your state one of the most conservative in the nation? White supremacists, uneducated folks, gun-touting hunters, etc.? (Asking sincerely, not to be condescending). The politics of Idaho has always fascinated me.

Actually there aren't as many Mormons there as you would think. They are primarily concentrated in the 2 District held by Mike Simpson(R). The First district is a lot like Wyoming or Eastern Washington. Rural Westerners have been highly Republican for decades and still are.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

It's hard to predict. 2008 could be just a fluke. But I don't think we can tie Minnick victory with Obama landslide election, since no one than McCain won in landslide in Idaho.

Minnick can become a safe seat Democratic Congressman in a very Republican state, just like, as you mentioned, Matheson or Boren, or really can be an accidental short-termer. We shall see...

Back in 2008 I was also suprised by his win.

I wonder what's going to happen with two freshman Democratic Representatives from Alabama: Bright and Griffith. Problem is pretty smilliar.

[HAnnA MArin County]

It's hard to predict. 2008 could be just a fluke. But I don't think we can tie Minnick victory with Obama landslide election, since no one than McCain won in landslide in Idaho.

Minnick can become a safe seat Democratic Congressman in a very Republican state, just like, as you mentioned, Matheson or Boren, or really can be an accidental short-termer. We shall see...

Back in 2008 I was also suprised by his win.

I wonder what's going to happen with two freshman Democratic Representatives from Alabama: Bright and Griffith. Problem is pretty smilliar.

Yeah, Minnick might do better in 2010 without Obama on the ticket, but we shall see. I still give the edge to any generic Republican. It's Idaho, I mean, come on.

As for Bright and Griffith, they are probably safe. Parker Griffith's district, AL-05, in Northern Alabama was held by a Democrat prior to his election, and Bobby Bright was a relatively popular mayor in Montgomery, and since Obama won't be on the ticket in 2010, I reckon they will do similar if not better in 2010 than they did in 2008 unless Obama's approval ratings plummet or the economy gets worse, etc.

[Mr.Phips]

It's hard to predict. 2008 could be just a fluke. But I don't think we can tie Minnick victory with Obama landslide election, since no one than McCain won in landslide in Idaho.

Minnick can become a safe seat Democratic Congressman in a very Republican state, just like, as you mentioned, Matheson or Boren, or really can be an accidental short-termer. We shall see...

Back in 2008 I was also suprised by his win.

I wonder what's going to happen with two freshman Democratic Representatives from Alabama: Bright and Griffith. Problem is pretty smilliar.

I agree with you on Bright, but Griffith in AL-05 is a different situation.  That seat has long been a Democratic seat.  Its much more rural. 

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Griffith seat was long occupied by fellow Democrat (typical Alabama Democrat of course) Bud Cramer, but Bright's was solidly Republican, held by fellow named Terry Everett, who despite being a second ranking Republican in House Intelligence Committee, couldn't name a differences betwenn Sunnis and Shias

I remember opinions before elections, that both seats are Republican-leaning. Bright won mostly becuase of his popularity as mayor and Griffith undoubtely with Cramer help. As incumbents (and Alabama trends to be incumbent-friendly in House elections) they'd probably able to held these seats, but they really won initially narrowly and after bloody battle.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

One thing to note is that the top of the ticket in Idaho 2010 will be the governor's race (Crapo is certainly not going to face a serious challenge, considering he was unopposed last time around), and Butch Otter is not very popular right now. I don't know that he could be beaten (except maybe in the primary), but I doubt he'll be driving Republicans to the polls unless his popularity recovers.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

It's hard to see more Republican states than Idaho and Utah (I mean there are succesfull Democrats in Nebraska, like Nelson, or Wyoming, like Freudenthal). In fact the last really popular and succesfull Democratic office-holders (statewide) were Frank Church and Cecil Andrus.

Crapo is the safest incumbent up for reelection in 2010. Otter is not that safe. After all, Democratic Governor is much more possible than Democratic Senator or longtime Congressman.

[War on Want]

bump. I've been looking hard at the precinct data and Minnick's chances are looking increasingly dire to me. Minnick's strengths, oddly enough, were in rural areas, working class areas. The ultra conservative suburbs/exburbs of Coeur d' Alene and Post Falls(I haven't looked at Boise/Nampa in detail as much yet but I'm guessing it's the same) really didn't vote for Minnick any more than they voted for Obama. It is the working class, backwoods areas that were especially strong for Minnick.

I'll go into detail on Shoshone County here with voting results and town descriptions. First off here are the town results:
Wallace:Minnick 68-Sali 32, Wallace voted for Bush in 2000. The town has trended towards the right, along with the county and has been dying in recent years. The town reached its peak population of 3,300 people in 1940 and since then it has been in decline, reaching 867 people by 2007. The town is very historical and used to be a mining hub. The town also used to be a center of labor strength, with frequent strikes in the 1890's and early 1900's. Extreme violence actually occured in 1899, when 17 workers were layed off of work for trying to form a union and then miners blew up a mill. The army had to intervene.

Kellogg:Minnick 64-Sali 36, Kellogg is another mining town but it has done much better in recent times and the decline of Kellogg only began in the 1960's, as opposed to the 1940's. The town is also very working class. Unlike Wallace, Kellogg has been a stronger center of Democratic strength in recent years. It voted for Gore in 2000.

Mullan:Minnick 75-Sali 25, Mullan is another mining town but unlike Kellogg and Wallace, the mines here are actually open. The town is the most Democratic in Shoshone County.

Osburn:Minnick 62-Sali 38 I honestly know nothing about Osburn haha. Basically it is pretty similar to the other towns in the area, except it is slightly larger than Mullan and Wallace. Osburn was very strong for Bush in 2000, almost 60 percent.

Pinehurst:Minnick 62-Sali 38 I don't really know much about Pinehurst either. It voted for Bush very strongly, almost at 60 percent, just like Osburn.

Smelterville:Minnick 69-Sali 31 This town is right outside of Kellogg and is basically a part of Kellogg. You know Shoshone County is sad when the construction of a Wal-Mart here makes it a happenin' place. Anyways this is one of the stronger Democratic areas in Shoshone County.

I'll do more of these but focusing on the rural areas of Idaho with no working class roots. As you can see though the difference between Minnick and Obama is very impressive here. Shoshone County gave Obama 44 percent of the vote, while it gave Minnick 64 percent of the vote. This is an area that could very easily decide who represents ID-1.

[War on Want]

Now I will be focusing on the more average rural areas of Idaho. There isn't much farming in ID-1 to speak of, mostly logging and some miscellaneous agriculture that takes place in rural areas. I'll start off with random communities in northern Idaho.

Bonners Ferry(Boundary County)Sali 55-Minnick 45, Like most communities in northern Idaho, Bonners Ferry started out as a logging town. Unlike most of northern Idaho, signficant farming and ranching exists near Bonners Ferry due to the prescence of the Kootenay River and a low lying valley. The area has been stoutly Republican since the beginning of time. Even before humans were in North America, the glaciers and rocks were registered Republicans.
Anyways this area really hates environmentalists. Gore barely got over 20 percent of the vote here in 2000 but Kerry almost got 30 percent.

St. Maries(Benewah County): Sali 52-Minnick 48 Another town that began as a logging community. It isn't as Republican as Bonners Ferry and actually has an elected Democratic representative sent to Boise.

Sandpoint(Bonner County)Minnick 62-Sali 38 Even though Sandpoint is the birthplace of Sarah Palin(and me), it is one of the most liberal areas in Idaho. It really isn't very working class but it is fairly bohemian. Whenever an Idaho local hear's the name Sandpoint, they immediatley think of old stoned hippies. There's much more to Sandpoint than this, there is a huge skii resort very close by, along with some airplane manufacturing and it houses the headquarters of Coldwater Creek.

More to come later...

[Alexander Hamilton]

Can he? Yes. Will he? No. Could he? Maybe.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Its much more rural. 

Not really.

[nkpatel1279]

ID-1 was previously held by Steve Symms, Larry Craig and Helen Chenoweth.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

bump. I've been looking hard at the precinct data and Minnick's chances are looking increasingly dire to me. Minnick's strengths, oddly enough, were in rural areas, working class areas. The ultra conservative suburbs/exburbs of Coeur d' Alene and Post Falls(I haven't looked at Boise/Nampa in detail as much yet but I'm guessing it's the same) really didn't vote for Minnick any more than they voted for Obama. It is the working class, backwoods areas that were especially strong for Minnick.

That's not surprising at all. That sort of thing usually happens when you have crazy Republicans, it's the suburbs/exurbs that are more partisan to vote for them, while the the rural areas, even if generally conservative, can get embarassed. It's the reason Michele Bachmann can survive in a district that only voted 53% for McCain.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Well, Church survived so many terms in icreasingly blue Idaho.

I know Church and Minnick are uncomparable, and, unlike Church, Minnick is trying everything he can he's conservative enough. But it's possible a popular incumbent, even if he's a Democrat, which is rare in Idaho, can hold on.

[War on Want]

Well, Church survived so many terms in icreasingly blue Idaho.

I know Church and Minnick are uncomparable, and, unlike Church, Minnick is trying everything he can he's conservative enough. But it's possible a popular incumbent, even if he's a Democrat, which is rare in Idaho, can hold on.

Idaho was so different back then. Unions were actually fairly powerful in Idaho politics back then and the state was much more working class. Mines were up running, logging was doing alright etc so Church had a very large working class base that supported him. For instance in 1972, northern Idaho voted at national margins for McGovern.

1968


2008:


As you can see Idaho politics have changed radically. Democratic strength in logging counties has totally faded. Bannock County, which vote fairly close to the national average, has trended fairly far to the right.

[Hash]

It seems like Democratic strength in Idaho today, on a normal 'average' election for Idaho, is just the uni towns and liberal resorts with influx of out-of-staters.