We will have to wait for 2010, but I feel a Republican wave coming here. They probably won't win the state legislature, but the governorship, CO-4 and CO-7 (when the seat is open), and the seat up for election in 2010 are all up for grabs.
CO-7?? That has turned into a solid Dem district.
In 2006 Perlmutter rode the Democratic wave, and in 2008 he had another Democratic wave as well as incumbency.
Obama won the district by almost 20 points and even John Kerry won the district 51%-48% while getting clobbered statewide. It is a pretty solid Dem district now.
Though don't forget a Republican that runs there will be more moderate than McCain or Bush.
They haven't done that yet. The district is pretty much gone for the GOP and will probably become even further done after redistricting. The only way the GOP would even have a slight chance of getting it back at this point is either by major scandal or having that open seat come during a 94 type election for the Dems (and it would probably have to be even worse than that). Its not even a moderate district anymore, its pretty much a liberal district at this point (granted not nearly as liberal as CO-1 & CO-2, but still liberal)
It is a lean-Democratic district, but certainly still winnable for a moderate Republican. If the state party gets it's act together, Republicans could win it.
Lean districts aren't won by 19 points on the Presidential level......
ID-1, SD At-large, ND At-large, NY-13, these all suggested, based on the presidential results, that they would be strong for one party but went to the other. I'm sure there are many others as well.
As North Carolina Yankee pointed out the other districts you mentioned are either much more marginal than CO-7 or have a completely different dynamic. You have the retail politics in the ND & SD districts and also both states are known for voting differently on the Presidential level and House & Senate level. Out of the examples you gave all voted far less GOP than CO-7 did Dem on the Pres level last year with the exception of ID-1, and Sali is a complete lunatic who makes Bachmann seem sane.
The GOP currently has three seats in districts that went by larger margins than CO-7. Castle's seat in Delaware (a well entrenched incumbent who is somewhat liberal, Mark Kirk IL-10, another moderate to liberal well entrenched incumbent. Both of those are likely Dem once the two of them are gone, and the other is LA-2 with Cao. He won for the sole reason of Jefferson being a criminal and he will be gone after next year.
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